Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3    4933
R2    4906
R1    4877
Avg    4850
S1    4821
S2    4794
S3    4765

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4905     Trgt 2
H5 4892     Trgt 1
H4 4879     Long breakout
H3 4864     Go Short
H2 4859
H1 4854
L1 4843
L2 4838
L3 4833     Long
L4 4818     Short Breakout
L5 4805     Trgt 1
L6 4792     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 4952
R2 4915
R1 4886
Avg 4849
S1 4820
S2 4783
S3 4754

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4923     Trgt 2
H5 4908     Trgt 1
H4 4893     Long breakout
H3 4875     Go Short
H2 4869
H1 4863
L1 4850
L2 4844
L3 4838     Long
L4 4820     Short Breakout
L5 4805     Trgt 1
L6 4790     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9546
R2 9447
R1 9314
Avg 9215
S1 9082
S2 8983
S3 8850

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9415     Trgt 2
H5 9362     Trgt 1
H4 9309     Long breakout
H3 9245     Go Short
H2 9224
H1 9203
L1 9160
L2 9139
L3 9118     Long
L4 9054     Short Breakout
L5 9001     Trgt 1
L6 8948     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(03-10-2011)

Range bound markets between 4823.90-4879.15 after gap down opening today. As Nifty moved below 4835 therefore gap of 27-09-2011 has been filled up today and gap support has been terminated. Intraday patterns are suggesting consolidations therefore up moves hopes from today levels is alive despite depressing Global cues led deep Red closing today.

US and European cues led global cues led violent voltality nowadays therefore cautious approach is required. Follow up consolidation tomorrow and moves above today range(4880) will be next upmoves confirmations therefore will be watched first for next short term up moves confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-10-2011)

US markets tumbled heavily and closed more than 2.15% down after crucial data anouncement and in reaction all the Asian markets are 2.00% to 3.85% down except China.No releaf and heavy blows from Global markets therefore gap down opening today and all the supports above 4900 will be broken down today. Next support is gap support of 27-09-2011(between 4835-4905) and Nifty will firstly trade between this range today.

Nifty is range bound 4720-5229 for the last 38 sessions with strong resistances at higher levels and weak supports near 4720. Importance of this range has alreay been posted many times and this range break out will decide the fate of 11 months old correction in following manner:-

1- Break out(above 5229) will mean 11 months correction completion.
2- Break down(below 4720) will mean beginning of fresh phase of deeper fast correction.

Markets are not trending and global cues are also playing most crucial role in last 38 sessions market. Next moves beyond gap support of 27-09-2011(between 4835-4905) will be understood according to intraday charts formations of today and will be updated accordingly in Mid-session Outlooks.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 30-Sep-2011

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 03-10-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(30-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5000-5025
2- Last one and half hour support between 4925-4945
3- Down moves in falling channel
4- Whole day trading between 4924-5025

Conclusions

Down moves in falling channel after higher levels selling between 5000-5025 but last one and half hour support also between 4925-4945 therefore expected that Nifty will open and firstly trade between 4906-5034 on Monday. As today intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations and last one and half hour support between 4925-4945 also therefore positive markets hopes are alive in Indian markets.

Although US Futures are more than .75% down and European markets are also 15 to 2.5% down at this moment but Indian markets intraday patterns of today are showing consolidation patterns therefore up moves hopes are alive for next Monday.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(30-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Bearish Harami Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Red except CD.
3- Closing near day's lower levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.33
Nifty P/E Ratio(30-Sep-2011): 17.85

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1020
BSE DECLINES : 1731
NSE ADVANCES : 479
NSE DECLINES : 927

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Sep)- +478200(+35.13%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Sep)- +649400(+20.98%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +921400(+32.35%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +118200(+3.92%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +889750(+39.75%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +28150(+2.96%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,943.25(-72.20 Points & -1.44%)
Sensex- closed at 16,453.76(-244.31 Points & -1.46% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,094.00(-24.95 Points & -0.35%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,881.08(-61.09 Points & -0.88%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 30-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 30-Sep-2011 2498.17 2957.64 -459.47

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 30-Sep-2011 1240.39 723.05 517.34

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5099
R2 5062
R1 4998
Avg 4961
S1 4897
S2 4860
S3 4796

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5035     Trgt 2
H5 5012     Trgt 1
H4 4989     Long breakout
H3 4961     Go Short
H2 4952
H1 4943
L1 4924
L2 4915
L3 4906     Long
L4 4878     Short Breakout
L5 4855     Trgt 1
L6 4832     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5114
R2 5072
R1 5003
Avg 4961
S1 4892
S2 4850
S3 4781

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5045     Trgt 2
H5 5020     Trgt 1
H4 4995     Long breakout
H3 4964     Go Short
H2 4954
H1 4944
L1 4923
L2 4913
L3 4903     Long
L4 4872     Short Breakout
L5 4847     Trgt 1
L6 4822     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9821
R2 9727
R1 9574
Avg 9480
S1 9327
S2 9233
S3 9080

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9669     Trgt 2
H5 9613     Trgt 1
H4 9557     Long breakout
H3 9489     Go Short
H2 9467
H1 9444
L1 9399
L2 9376
L3 9354     Long
L4 9286     Short Breakout
L5 9230     Trgt 1
L6 9174     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 03 to Oct 07,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5334
R2 5184
R1 5059
Avg 4909
S1 4784
S2 4634
S3 4509

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5219     Trgt 2
H5 5152     Trgt 1
H4 5085     Long breakout
H3 5009     Go Short
H2 4984
H1 4959
L1 4908
L2 4883
L3 4858     Long
L4 4782     Short Breakout
L5 4715     Trgt 1
L6 4648     Trgt 2

BankNifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 03 to Oct 07,2011)

BankNifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10208
R2 9948
R1 9685
Avg 9425
S1 9162
S2 8902
S3 8639

BankNifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 9959     Trgt 2
H5 9834     Trgt 1
H4 9709     Long breakout
H3 9565     Go Short
H2 9517
H1 9469
L1 9374
L2 9326
L3 9278     Long
L4 9134     Short Breakout
L5 9009     Trgt 1
L6 8884     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(30-09-2011)

As soon as we realised that today first session rally is Short covering rally and will not sustaining at higher levels then we updated our views and told following lines:-

Short covering rally seems today sustaining at higher levels is doubtful.

Indian markets could not sustain at higher levels and slipped aharply after our above posting.Range bound markets for the last 37 sessions and highly Volatile markets between 4906-5034 for the last 4 days. Next strong supports are between 4906-4930 and slipping below 4906 will be strong down moves confirmation. Although resistances between 5000-5034 in last 4 days but not strong.

Expected that Nifty will open and firstly trade between 4906-5034 on Monday. Although Indian markets are closing in deep Red but intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations and last one hour support between 4925-4945 also therefore positive markets hopes are alive in Indian markets despite US futures and European markets are .85% to 2.4% down.

Sustaining beyond 4906-5034 will be gid move confirmation in next week.

Mid-session Outlook(30-09-2011)

It has been observed that all the Global markets dances on US markets tunes(Futures) during trading hours nowadays. Dow's Futures was trading more than 50 points down in the morning and when started to recover then up moves started in all Asian and Indian markets. As soon as Dow's Futures tumbled then all Asian markets also slipped from intra day higher levels. Dow's Futures is trading more 40 points down and Nifty is also trading 25 points down from today highest.


Short covering rally seems today sustaining at higher levels is doubtful.

Post-open Outlook(30-09-2011)

Clearly weak opening and Nifty slipped below 4970 also. Nifty traded more than 2 hours between 4960-4987 yesterday and after that fast 50 points up moves were seen during last 1 hour yesterday. Nifty is trading between 4955-4982 after weak opening today as well as traded most time within mentioned range(4960-4987).

As Nifty traded more than 2 hours between 4960-4987 yesterday and also trading between this range today therefore next moves preparation range has to be adjusted and sustaining beyond 4955-4987 will be next moves confirmation.

Firstly watch sustaining beyond 4955-4987 today for next moves confirmation.

Pre-open Outlook(30-09-2011)

All the Asian markets are reacting US markets through flat to negative zone trading therefore Indian markets will also open in the same manner and will open weak. Strong surge yesterday and Indian markets will prepare for next moves today for next moves between 4970-5010. Indian markets are range bound for the last 36 sessions with good supports are lower levels and good resistances are at higher levels also therefore markets will have prepare for next moves between mentioned range.

Sustaining beyond mentioned range will be result of next moves preparation within 4970-5010 therefore should be watched first for next moves confirmations.

Firstly watch Asian markets reaction on US markets closing

All the Asian markets opened weak but recovered from intra day lower levels and clsed near higher levels of the day yesterday and whole of this intra day up trend was on the back on whole day rising US Futures. As Indian markets also reacted in the same manner yesterday therefore Asian markets reaction on US markets closing should be watched first because Indian markets may also react in the same manner.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 30-09-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(29-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 4906-4930
2- Strong rally in Rising channel
3- Whole day trading between 4906-5034

Conclusions

Whole day strong rally in rising channel after support between 4906-4930 and closing near day's highest. Strong rally today and last 2 sessions range crossed by force therefore more up moves possibility in the coming sessions is higher but today upmoves were on the back of stronger US Futures therefore more confirmations are required for the commencement of Pull Back rally. Sustaining above minimum one resistance range(5020-5060) is must for confirmation of Pull Back rally.

Dow's Futures was more than 100 points up during indian trading hours and US markets strong closing is must for maintaing of strong sentiment tomorrow. As today sharp surge was the result of strong Dow's Futures therefore US markets equally strong closing is required for continuation of rally tomorrow otherwise today started up moves may halt/reverse tomorrow.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 29-Sep-2011