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Post-open Outlook(20-09-2011)

US markets closed at 01:30 AM today and its impact on Asian markets was updated at 01:34 AM and following lines were told which proved 100% immediately after opening today morning:-

"Asian markets will not crash today morning. Nifty traded yesterday between 5020-5060 with good support at lower levels therefore yesterday trading range break out will be watched firstly for next moves confirmations"


"expected today therefore yesterday range upward break out possibility can not be ruled out now"

Yesterday good support has already been explained in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(20-09-2011)

 Upmoves will be seen today.

Pre-open Outlook(20-09-2011)


US markets recovered nicely from intraday lower levels today therefore sentiment improved and Asian markets will not crash today morning. Nifty traded yesterday between 5020-5060 with good support at lower levels therefore yesterday trading range break out will be watched firstly for next moves confirmations.

As yesterday intraday good support at lower levels and global sentiment recovery is also expected today therefore yesterday range upward break out possibility can not be ruled out now.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(20-09-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(19-Sep-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5050-5060
2- Buying between 5020-5030
3- Following Bullish Formations in last 4 hours:-
A- 4 Falling Channel formations
B- Break out of all falling channels
C- Bullish falling Wedge pattern formation in 3rd Falling Channel.
4- Whole day trading between 5020-5060

Conclusions

Nifty traded whole day between 40 points with minor intraday selling at higher levels and lower levels buying also but last 4 hours intraday patterns are showing consolidation patterns between 5020-5045 which has been explained above.

Global markets are crashing today and all the US and European markets are more than 2% down at this moment and more weakness may be seen tomorrow because  all trends are down and good selling between 5100-5220 in Indian markets.

Although Nifty got support at lower levels and last 4 hours intraday consolidation patterns also between 5020-5045 today but global cues are most depressing therefore firstly slipping below 5020 and then sustaining below following strong supports levels will be deeper down moves confirmation:-

1- 4969-5000
2- 4912-4936

Crashing global markets and Nifty is trading between 4720-5229 for the last 29 sessions with strong supports at lower levels and good resistance at higher levels. Multiple supports and resistances between 29 session range and next moves will get confirmation from break out of any side level one by one. Final next long term trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond mentioned 29 session range and detailed analysis of this range has already been explained on September 16, 2011,which is being reproduced as follows:-


Long Term Trend Deciding 27 Sessions Range(4720-5229)


Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty-EOD Chart(15-Sep-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling trendline resistance at the top of 27 sesions range.
2- 10 Months Bearish market
3- 94 Points Gap  on 05-08-2011
4- 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
5- Strong resistance range is 5120-5220 within 27 days range

Conclusions

All trends are down and Indian markets are slipping for the last 10 months. Nifty opened 94 points gap down on 05-08-2011 and since then 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229.

Markets always require completion consolidation for any rally after such big fall. Big rally started in March 2009 after lower level 5 monthe range bound consolidations. As range bound markets signals are emerging between 4720-5229 therefore this range break out will decide that 10 months long long term correction is over or not.Investment decisions,long term positions and Portfolio management should be done according to break out of mentioned range.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-Sep-2011)


Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red Closing
2- Black Candle
3- All the Indices closed in Red except Auto and CD.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.20
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-Sep-2011): 18.17

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1333
BSE DECLINES : 1452
NSE ADVANCES : 635
NSE DECLINES : 783

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +167300(+2.99%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- -7150(-0.09%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- -73600(-1.32%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- -135600(-3.47%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,031.95(+52.30 Points & +1.03%)
Sensex- closed at 16,745.35(-188.48 Points & -1.11% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,331.85(-14.60Points & -0.20%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,211.53(+-1.49 Points &-0.02%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5108
R2 5088
R1 5059
Avg 5039
S1 5010
S2 4990
S3 4961

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5080     Trgt 2
H5 5069     Trgt 1
H4 5057     Long breakout
H3 5044     Go Short
H2 5039
H1 5035
L1 5026
L2 5022
L3 5017     Long
L4 5004     Short Breakout
L5 4992     Trgt 1
L6 4981     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5107
R2 5085
R1 5061
Avg 5039
S1 5015
S2 4993
S3 4969

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5083     Trgt 2
H5 5072     Trgt 1
H4 5062     Long breakout
H3 5049     Go Short
H2 5045
H1 5041
L1 5032
L2 5028
L3 5024     Long
L4 5011     Short Breakout
L5 5001     Trgt 1
L6 4990     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9765
R2 9710
R1 9636
Avg 9581
S1 9507
S2 9452
S3 9378

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9692     Trgt 2
H5 9663     Trgt 1
H4 9633     Long breakout
H3 9598     Go Short
H2 9586
H1 9574
L1 9551
L2 9539
L3 9527     Long
L4 9492     Short Breakout
L5 9462     Trgt 1
L6 9433     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(19-09-2011)

It was clearly told that Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves and will prepare for next moves today. Nifty traded whole day between 5024-5060 and could not test mentioned ranges in previous outlooks today.

Minor selling(5050-5060) seen at higher levels and minor support also seen at lower levels between 5024-5030 today.

Indian markets out performed whole day global markets and now trading 1.00% down while US futures is more than 165 points down and European markets are also trading 2% to 3% down as well as all other Asian markets closed 1% to 2.75% down.

Both intraday selling patterns and buying formations but Indian markets out performed global markets today therefore today trading range(5024-5060) break out will be next moves confirmations and should be watched first in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(19-09-2011)

Selling formations seen between 5050-5060 today.

Post-open Outlook-2(19-09-2011)


Dow's Futures is trading more than 140 points down and European markets Futures are also .95% to 1:50% down today. All Asian markets are .75% to 2.10% down therefore sentiment is dampened today morning and negative zone trading is being seen after gap down opening today but Indian markets are out performing Global markets and now 60% down.

As good selling at higher levels above 5100 and good buying at lower levels also below 5000 therefore market require complete prepartion for next decisive moves. Coming hours intraday charts formations will give next moves first indication and and conclusions will be updated in the Blog.

Following levels break out will also give next moves indications therefore should be watched also;-

1- 5030-5075 for 1st indication.
2- 4969-5130 for confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(19-09-2011)


Selling and higher levels between 5100-5130 and buying at lower levels between 4969-5000 in two previous sessions. Next moves preparation range is 5000-5100 and Nifty will trade between this range today and prepare for next moves. Follow up buying/selling will decide that Nifty will break 5130 or 4969 for next decisive trend.

Let market prepare for next moves then will be updated in the Blog according to intraday charts formations.

NIFTY-Sep F&O-1st Shorting of 16-09-2011-Covering


NIFTY Sep F & O(Shorted on 16-09-2011)-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP- 5041

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 19-09-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(16-Sep-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5100-5130
2- Whole day trading between 5070-5139

Conclusions

Good selling at higher levels between 5100-5130 and today selling is at lower levels of previous resistance range of 5120-5169 and 5120-5220. Today selling has strengthened previous resistance ranges and confirmed further down moves.

More down moves will be seen in the coming sessions and next support range(4969-5000) testing is possible.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Sep-2011


Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Sep-2011)


Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Green closing.
2- Red Candle.
3- Higher levels selling patterns in most Indices.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Sep-2011): 18.36

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1287
BSE DECLINES : 1531
NSE ADVANCES : 627
NSE DECLINES : 797

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +68850(+1.24%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +1464300(+21.46%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +561250(+10.38%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +571900(+15.76%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Sep)- +839900(+14.49%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Sep)- +608700(+35.08%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,084.25(+8.55 Points & +0.17%)
Sensex- closed at 16,933.83(+57.29 Points & +0.34% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,346.45(+6.05 Points & +0.08%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,213.02(-0.74 Points & -0.01%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII16-Sep-20113675.293280.13395.16


DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII16-Sep-20111165.581126.2539.33

NIFTY-Sep F&O-1st Selling of 16-09-2011-Trade


NIFTY(Sep Fut-Sell-Positional)SL-5126-TGT-5036-CMP-5088

NIFTY(Sep Put Option-Buy-Positional)SL-5126-TGT-5036-S.P.FOR Put-5000,5100(Sep Fut-Rates
for all Options)-CMP-5088

Pre-Closing Outlook(16-09-2011)


Nifty is trading within mentioned range( 5095-5130) after credit policy and today intraday patterns are showing selling therefore weakness expected in the coming session.

Volatile Market after RBI Credit Policy

Volatile Market was told in following lines in Mid-session Outlook  today before RBI Credit Policy today and voltality is clear in following today intraday chart of after credit policy:-

Volatile moves may be seen after credit policy announcement therefore cautious approach is required and sustaing beyond 5095-5130 will be next moves confirmation after credit policy announcement at 12:00 noon today.

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
Nifty could not sustained above 5120 and also moved below 5095 also. 25 Basis points rates increase and it is on expected lines also therefore if Nifty sustains below 5095 today then it will be negative reaction confirmation.

Sustaing beyond 5095 will be market reaction confirmation on credit policy and should be watched first today for next trend confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(16-09-2011)

Only next resistance range(5120-5220) testing possibility was told in all the outlooks which were updated for today market and Nifty hovered around 5120 in first two hours today. It was also told again and again that 5120-5169 is next resistance and Nifty slipped below 5120 sharply after first 2 hours trading above it.

Completely news(strong global markets,petroleum rates hike and RBI Credit policy) based market today and technical positions reverses sharply in such markets also. Finally sustaining beyond 5120 will be next moves strong indication and will decide next trend also therefore this level should be watched first for next moves confirmation.

Volatile moves may be seen after credit policy announcement therefore cautious approach is required and sustaing beyond 5095-5130 will be next moves confirmation after credit policy announcement at 12:00 noon today..

Long Term Trend Deciding 27 Sessions Range(4720-5229)

Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty-EOD Chart(15-Sep-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling trendline resistance at the top of 27 sesions range.
2- 10 Months Bearish market
3- 94 Points Gap  on 05-08-2011
4- 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
5- Strong resistance range is 5120-5220 within 27 days range

Conclusions

All trends are down and Indian markets are slipping for the last 10 months. Nifty opened 94 points gap down on 05-08-2011 and since then 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229.

Markets always require completion consolidation for any rally after such big fall. Big rally started in March 2009 after lower level 5 monthe range bound consolidations. As range bound markets signals are emerging between 4720-5229 therefore this range break out will decide that 10 months long long term correction is over or not.Investment decisions,long term positions and Portfolio management should be done according to break out of mentioned range.


Nifty will first trade between strong resistance range is 5120-5220 after positive opening today. Nifty failed to cross this range in previous after selling between 5120-5169 therefore it will be next resistance range.

Sustaining beyond 5120-5169 will be next moves strong indication therefore should be watched first  after gap up opening today.