Pull Back Rally is on amid Crashing Global Markets

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(06-09-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(05-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Good consolidation Patterns between 4966-4994
2- Two times falling Channel and its break out at higher levels of the day.
3- Whole day trading and consolidation between 4960-5022

Conclusions

Nifty traded whole day betwen 4960-5022 and intraday charts of whole day are suggesting good consolidation Patterns. Although crashing all Global markets today and Dow Futures is 253 points down at this moment also but whole good intraday consolidation today therefore up moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Last 3 sessions trading range is 4929-5064. Supports and resistances within this range are as follows;-

1- Strong supoport between 4929-4995
2- Strong supoport between 4995-5026
3- Resistance between 5037-5064

As all the Global markets are crashing therefore caution is must and above supports/resistance ranges break out should be watched for next moves confirmations. Today whole day good consolidation but follow up buying/selling will be firstly watched tomorrow. Follow up buying tomorrow will mean fast up moves. If follow up selling develops on the back of crashing Global markets then complete selling patterns are required for next down moves and slipping below 4929.

Pull Back rally is continued from 4720 and its correction is on between 4929-5064 for the last 3 sessions. As Good buying between 4929-5026 during last 3 sessions therefore finally upmoves and continuation of Pull Back Rally expected but caution is must for the only reason given above.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 05-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-Sep-2011 2971.1 2837.88 133.22

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-Sep-2011 1110.29 963.06 147.23

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(05-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- White Candle.
2- Red closing.
3- Good recovery from intraday lower levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.17
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-Sep-2011): 18.11

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1486
BSE DECLINES : 1334
NSE ADVANCES : 729
NSE DECLINES : 695

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Sep)- +9300(+0.28%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Sep)- +679100(+13.64%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +202200(+3.83%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +402400(+7.51%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +446350(+10.73%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +200000(+11.81%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,017.20(-22.80 Points & -0.45%)
Sensex- closed at 16,713.33(-108.13 Points & -0.64% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,377.20(+41.35 Points & +0.56%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,146.45(+12.71 Points & +0.18%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5109
R2 5069
R1 5043
Avg 5003
S1 4977
S2 4937
S3 4911

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5083     Trgt 2
H5 5068     Trgt 1
H4 5053     Long breakout
H3 5035     Go Short
H2 5029
H1 5023
L1 5010
L2 5004
L3 4998     Long
L4 4980     Short Breakout
L5 4965     Trgt 1
L6 4950     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5104
R2 5067
R1 5038
Avg 5001
S1 4972
S2 4935
S3 4906

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5076     Trgt 2
H5 5061     Trgt 1
H4 5046     Long breakout
H3 5028     Go Short
H2 5022
H1 5016
L1 5003
L2 4997
L3 4991     Long
L4 4973     Short Breakout
L5 4958     Trgt 1
L6 4943     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9877
R2 9753
R1 9674
Avg 9550
S1 9471
S2 9347
S3 9268

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9802     Trgt 2
H5 9755     Trgt 1
H4 9707     Long breakout
H3 9651     Go Short
H2 9633
H1 9614
L1 9577
L2 9558
L3 9540     Long
L4 9484     Short Breakout
L5 9436     Trgt 1
L6 9389     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(05-09-2011)

levels selling and lower levels buying therefore range bound market was expected and following line was told today in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011)

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 4960-5026 after gap down opening today

Nifty traded most of the time within mentioned range with first 4 hours good consolidation between 4966-4994. As this range was already good support therefore 30-08-2011 support range(4929-4995) has become stronger today. 

Although matket slipped from intraday higher levels today but strong support at lower levels also today therefore follow up more consolidation and then continuation of on going Pull Back Rally expected tomorrow.

Mid-session Outlook-2(05-09-2011)

Global markets trading positions are as follows:-

1- Asian markets closed or trading:- 1.86% to 4.39% down.
2- European markets trading:- 1.36% to 2.31% down.
3- Dow'Futures is more than 100 points down today.

Indian markets are less than 1% down and out performing global markets today. Indian markets out performed Global markets last Friday also and closed in Green while all the most Global markets closed in Red last Friday.

Nifty traded and consolidated first 4 hours between 4966-4994. This range is today intraday support and strong indication of on going Pull Back rally continuation.

Mid-session Outlook(05-09-2011)

Higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore range bound market was expected and following line was told today in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011)

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 4960-5026 after gap down opening today

Nifty traded first two hours between 4973-4999 today. Market is preparing for next moves within mentioned range(4960-5026) and today follow up buying/selling will decide its break out direction.

Let market prepare and confirmation come then next trend conclusions will be drawn. Break out ranges for trend confirmations have already been given in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011).

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011)

Crashing Global markets therefore very easy to say for down moves today but down moves and Pull Back rally termination risk were told 4 times only and only in this Blog last Friday:-

1- Mid-session Outlook(02-09-2011):-"down moves possibilities have increased"

2- Mid-session Outlook-2(02-09-2011):-"As selling also seen at higher levels therefore today trading range(5007-5065) break out will be next moves confirmation"

3- Mid-session Outlook-3(02-09-2011):-"Sustaing below 5007 will be signal of on going Pull Back rally termination risk"

4- Pre-Closing Outlook(02-09-2011):-"As good selling at higher levels today therefore on going Pull Back rally survival is at risk"

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Aug 30 & Sep 02,2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Last 2 sessions trading range is 4929-5064. Supports and resistances within this range are as follows;-

1- Strong supoport between 4929-4995
2- Supoport between 4995-5026
3- Resistances between 5037-5064

Red closing after gap down opening and whole day negative zone trading is very much possible today but Indian markets nicely consolidated between 4929-4995 on 30-08-2011 also therefore this range is strong support and must be firstly watched also today for the reply of following question:-

On going Pull Back rally is surviving or not?

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 4960-5026 after gap down opening today and:-

1- Crossing 5026 will up moves first strong indication.
2- Slipping below 4960 will be down moves first strong indication.

Let market preapare for next moves then conclusions will be drawn firstly from intraday charts formations and then break out of following ranges:-

1- First Indication- 4960-5026
2- Confirmation- 4929-5064

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 05-09-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(02-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5037-5064
2- Buying between 5007-5026
3- Buying between 4995-5022
3- Whole day trading between 4995-5064

Conclusions

Nifty traded whole day between 4995-5064 with lower level buying but good selling at higher level also therefore down moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week. As Indan markets out performed Global markets and lower levels buying also therefore firstly follow up selling and then sustaining below 4995 is must for fresh down moves confirmation.

US markets closed more than 2.2% down yesterday and sustaining below 4995 will mean risk of on going Pull Back rally termination. As strong support between 4929-4995 also therefore this range must be watched for the reply of following question:-

On going Pull Back rally is surviving or not?

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 02-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 02-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 02-Sep-2011 4704.39 3546.01 1158.38

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 02-Sep-2011 906.05 1252.33 -346.28

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(02-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Green closing.
2- Black Candle.
3- Most Indices closed in Green while some others closed in Red also.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.15
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-Sep-2011): 18.19

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1657
BSE DECLINES : 1186
NSE ADVANCES :  876
NSE DECLINES :  550

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +114450(+2.21%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +950000(+20.79%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +170400(+4.27%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +243000(+16.66%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,040.00(+39.00 Points & +0.78%)
Sensex- closed at 16,821.46(+144.71 & +0.87% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,335.85(+41.10 Points & +0.56%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,133.74(+2.26 Points & +0.03%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5224
R2 516
R1 5104
Avg 5048
S1 4984
S2 4928
S3 4864

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5161     Trgt 2
H5 5133     Trgt 1
H4 5106     Long breakout
H3 5073     Go Short
H2 5062
H1 5051
L1 5029
L2 5018
L3 5007     Long
L4 4974     Short Breakout
L5 4946     Trgt 1
L6 4918     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5158
R2 5115
R1 5074
Avg 5031
S1 4990
S2 4947
S3 4906

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5118     Trgt 2
H5 5099     Trgt 1
H4 5080     Long breakout
H3 5057     Go Short
H2 5049
H1 5041
L1 5026
L2 5018
L3 5010     Long
L4 4987    Short Breakout
L5 4968     Trgt 1
L6 4949     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9858
R2 9757
R1 9658
Avg 9557
S1 9458
S2 9357
S3 9258

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9762     Trgt 2
H5 9716     Trgt 1
H4 9670     Long breakout
H3 9615     Go Short
H2 9596
H1 9578
L1 9541
L2 9523
L3 9505     Long
L4 9450     Short Breakout
L5 9403     Trgt 1
L6 9357     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Sep 05 to Sep 09,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5588
R2 5350
R1 5195
Avg 4957
S1 4802
S2 4564
S3 4409

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5459     Trgt 2
H5 5357     Trgt 1
H4 5256     Long breakout
H3 5148     Go Short
H2 5112
H1 5076
L1 5003
L2 4967
L3 4931    Long
L4 4823    Short Breakout
L5 4722     Trgt 1
L6 4620     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(02-09-2011)

Volatile market between 4995-5064 with clear selling between 5037-5064. Some buying also being felt between 4995-5026.

Today trading range break out will decide that on going Pull Back rally will survive or not. As good selling at higher levels today therefore  on going Pull Back rally survival is at risk also..

Just Watch break out of 4995-5064 for next moves confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook-3(02-09-2011)

As soon as selling developed in intraday charts we updated in both previous outlooks and also clearly told in Mid-session Outlook(02-09-2011) that

"down moves possibilities have increased also" 

Down moves developed and Nifty slipped below today lowest and formed new intra day low at 5004.15. Sustaing below 5007 will be signal of on going Pull Back rally termination risk therefore should be watched first.