Mid-session Outlook-2(27-07-2011)

Nifty moved below 5557 therefore mentioned range is broken down  and more down moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(27-07-2011)

Nifty is trading between 5557-3391 since opening and minor intraday support at lower levels and resistance at higher levels seen within this range. Nifty will trade range bound between this 5557-5606 in the coming hours. As mixed trading patterns seen between this range today and yesterday after credit policy therefore break out this range will form decisive very short term trend and should be watched first.

Pre-open Outlook(27-07-2011)

Technical Positions,today Outlook and next possibilities have already been explained in following topics yesterday therefore not being repeated today:-

1- RBI Credit Policy led Long Engulfing Bearish Candle reversed Technical Formations
2- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 27-07-2011

Asian markets are mixed after US markets Red closing yesterday and US Futures is also flat today therefore Sentiment is quiet and Nifty will open and firstly trade between  last 4 hours range of yesterday(5560-5605). As trading patterns were mixed between mentioned range yesterday therefore Nifty will first trade between this range and prepare for next moves.

Let market final reaction come through mentioned range break out then next trend will get confirmation. Expected that Nifty will trade and hover around 5560-5605 after flat opening and its break out as well as sustaining beyond will be next moves confirmation.

RBI Credit Policy led Long Engulfing Bearish Candle reversed Technical Formations

Technical Analysis and Research & Market Outlook For 27-07-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(26-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Indian markets could not digest 50 basis points rise in key policy rates by RBI and crashed 55 points in 5 minutes after its announcement. Nifty closed 105 points down. Today Candle is Long Engulfing Bearish as well as it reversed all the following Technical Formations:-

1- Nifty traded and closed last 4 hours between previous 10 days trading range(5497-5654) on 26-07-2011.
2- Nifty traded and closed last 4 hours between 5 months range(5350-5600) on 26-07-2011.
3- Moved and closed below 3 crucial EMAs(8,21,200).
4- All trends turned sideways.
5- Daily MACD downward cross over.
6- Falling Trendline Broken down.
7- Pennant pattern again in existence.

Conclusions

Nifty traded last 10 days between 5497-5654 and today traded most of the time below 5600 after Credit policy announcement with mixed intraday patterns,as selling signals are also seen below 5600 therefore more down moves are possible because RBI Credit Policy gave big jolt to fundamentals also.

RBI Credit Policy generated fall reversed above mentioned 7 Bullish patterns and sustaining below 5600 will be confirmation of Indian markets again turning into 5 months old  range(5350-5600) bound market as well as its possibility is higher now.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 27-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(26-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

Last 4 fours mixed patterns between- 5560-5605

Conclusions

Sharp fall after RBI Credit policy and Nifty traded last 4 hours between 5560-5605 with intraday mixed patterns. As Nifty traded most of the time below 5600 and selling signals are also seen therefore more down moves are possible because RBI Credit Policy gave big jolt to fundamentals today.

Nifty sustaining below 5600 will be confirmation of again turning into range bound mode between 5350-5600 and next moves confirmation range is sustaining beyond 5560-5605.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 26-Jul-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 26-Jul-2011 2479.17 2656.92 -177.75

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 26-Jul-2011 1387.82 1356.33 31.49

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Red.
3- Sharp fall after RBI credit policy.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Jul-2011): 20.22

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 955
BSE DECLINES : 1961
NSE ADVANCES : 361
NSE DECLINES : 1062

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- +2686700(+82.95%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- -206700(-1.80%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +3196750(+55.26%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- -2789000(-26.00%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +1914300(+21.05%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- -3617450(-42.92%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,574.85(-105.45 Points & -1.86%)
Sensex- closed at 18,518.22(-353.07 Points & -1.87% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,119.30(-95.60 Points & -1.16%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,437.68(-67.74 Points & -0.80%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5822
R2 5765
R1 5669
Avg 5612
S1 5516
S2 5459
S3 5363

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5727     Trgt 2
H5 5692     Trgt 1
H4 5658     Long breakout
H3 5616     Go Short
H2 5602
H1 5588
L1 5559
L2 5545
L3 5531     Long
L4 5489     Short Breakout
L5 5455     Trgt 1
L6 5420     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5806
R2 5754
R1 5664
Avg 5612
S1 5522
S2 5470
S3 5380

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5716     Trgt 2
H5 5684     Trgt 1
H4 5652     Long breakout
H3 5613     Go Short
H2 5600
H1 5587
L1 5560
L2 5547
L3 5534     Long
L4 5495     Short Breakout
L5 5463     Trgt 1
L6 5431     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11722
R2 11578
R1 11344
Avg 11200
S1 10966
S2 10822
S3 10588

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11489     Trgt 2
H5 11403     Trgt 1
H4 11317     Long breakout
H3 11213     Go Short
H2 11179
H1 11144
L1 11075
L2 11040
L3 11006     Long
L4 10902     Short Breakout
L5 10816     Trgt 1
L6 10730     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(26-07-2011)

RBI 440 Volts interest rates shock to Indian markets and its impact will be decided through sustaining beyond 5600. Nifty traded most on the time below 5600 after Credit policy announcement and also closing below but if Nifty sustains below 5600 tomorrow again then Indian markets will enter into range bound mode between 5350-5600.

Just watch sustaining beyond 5600 tomorrow for nrxt moves confirmations. 

RBI raises key policy rates by 50 bps

Mid-session Outlook(26-07-2011)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday raised repo rate by 50 basis points to 8 per cent and reverse repo to 7 per cent in its policy meet to arrest rising inflation.

This step is big jolt to Indian industry and stock markets therefore sharp fall was seen. Although such huge fall was unexpected but minor fall was seen and following precautionary lines were precautionary lines were posted at 08:07:00 AM today:-

"sentiment is heated therefore voltality after minor profit booking may be seen. As markets have to trade between resistances therefore fresh consolidation is must and long positions should be created after intraday consolidations"

RBI today step is problemsome for fundamentals and firstly sustaining beyond 5600 should be watched for next moves first indication.

Bullish markets 8 confirmations in Charts on 25-07-2011

Technical Analysis and Research For 26-07-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(25-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

8 Bullish patterns in charts are as follows

1- 10 Days trading range(5497-5654) broken out confirmation on 25-07-2011.
2- 5 months range(5350-5600) broken out confirmations on 25-07-2011.
3- Sustaining above all crucial EMAs(8,21,55,200) confirmation.
4- All trends turning up confirmation.
5- Daily MACD upward cross over.
6- Weekly MACD upward cross over
7  Falling Trendline Break Out.
8- Pennant Break out.

Next resistances are as follows

1- 5675-5699(Last one hour mixed intraday patterns and today follow up buying/selling will decide next immediate moves)
2- 5700-5740(Resistance and consolidation requires for crossing 5740)

Conclusions

Yesterday rally gave Bullish markets beginning confirmations and should be expected that market will consolidate near about above mentioned resistances as well as cross 5740 in the coming sessions.

Asian markets are little positive today morning therefore firstly range bound market expected between 5665-5700. RBI credit policy today and its announcements may also show decisive direction to Indian markets but voltality possibility can not be ruled out.

Positive closing is expected after consolidations between 5665-5700 but sentiment is heated therefore voltality after minor profit booking may be seen. As markets have to trade between resistances therefore fresh consolidation is must and long positions should be created after intraday consolidations.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 26-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(25-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5618-5650
2- Mixed patterns between 5675-5699

Conclusions

Most of the time intraday consolidation but last one hour mixed patterns between 5675-5699 just below resistance range. Today rally gave many bullish markets confirmations therefore expected that Nifty will consolidate around next resistance of 5700-5740 and finally cross 5740 in the coming sessions.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Jul-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Jul-2011 2608.84 2293.12 315.72

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Jul-2011 1511.75 1287.5 224.25

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- Rally despite whole day negative global cues.
3- All the Indices closed in Green except FMCG.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Jul-2011): 20.71

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1609
BSE DECLINES : 1292
NSE ADVANCES : 836
NSE DECLINES : 589

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- -275650(-4.35%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +1996900(+22.48%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +798950(+9.12%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +3375950(+64.24%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,680.30(+46.35 Points & +0.82%)
Sensex- closed at 18,871.29(+148.99 Points & +0.80% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,214.90(+61.00 Points & +0.75%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,505.42(+41.93 Points & +0.50%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5798
R2 5749
R1 5714
Avg 5665
S1 5630
S2 5581
S3 5546

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5764     Trgt 2
H5 5745     Trgt 1
H4 5726     Long breakout
H3 5703     Go Short
H2 5695
H1 5687
L1 5672
L2 5664
L3 5656     Long
L4 5633     Short Breakout
L5 5614     Trgt 1
L6 5595     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5820
R2 5764
R1 5727
Avg 5671
S1 5634
S2 5578
S3 5541

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5784     Trgt 2
H5 5762     Trgt 1
H4 5741     Long breakout
H3 5715     Go Short
H2 5707
H1 5698
L1 5681
L2 5672
L3 5664     Long
L4 5638     Short Breakout
L5 5617     Trgt 1
L6 5595     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11687
R2 11566
R1 11482
Avg 11361
S1 11277
S2 11156
S3 11072

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11606     Trgt 2
H5 11559     Trgt 1
H4 11511     Long breakout
H3 11455     Go Short
H2 11436
H1 11417
L1 11380
L2 11361
L3 11342     Long
L4 11286     Short Breakout
L5 11238     Trgt 1
L6 11191     Trgt 2