Post-open Outlook(21-06-2011)

Patterns of today are suggesting consolidation and lower levels buying between 5258-5278 therefore minor upmoves are visible. More consolidations and crossing of minimum one resistance will be any kind of up moves confirmation.

NIFTY-JUN F&O-1ST SELLING OF 20-06-2011-COVERING

NIFTY JUN F & O(SHORTED ON 20-06-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5262

NIFTY-JUN F&O-1ST SELLING OF 20-06-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY-JUN F&O-1ST SELLING OF 20-06-2011- MARKET WILL BE VOLATILE THEREFORE HOLD AND COVER AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE

3 breaking down Patterns & Bearish markets Confirmations

Market Outlook(21-06-2011)

All the trends were already down and following 3 crucial Patterns were developed on EOD charts which gave Bear market confirmation within 10 minutes yesterday when Nifty nosedived 141 points in just 10 minutes. Just click following links and understand the gravity and importance of following patterns for deciding next phase of Indian markets:-

1- Head & Shoulders Pattern in 4 months EOD Chart
2- 18 Months Rising Trend Line Broken Down
3- 34 Sessions Trading Range(5329-5604) Broken Down
4- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 21-06-2011

Conclusions

Nifty traded more than 3 hours between 5275-5312 with Intraday selling patterns yesterday therefore it is first resistance range and next support range is 5220-5250 and moves below 5220 will mean more down moves.

Asian markets are positive today morning after US markets green closing yesterday therefore Nifty Nifty will open positive and  will first trade between 5240-5290. Expected that Nifty will finally slip below 5200 after follow up selling in the coming sessions.

34 Sessions Trading Range(5329-5604) Broken Down

       Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty- EOD Chart(20-06-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- 34 Sessions Range Bound Moves
2- Nifty faced resistance 3 times near 5600
3- Nifty got support once at 5329
4- Support broken down

Conclusions

Forceful break down of 34 Sessions Trading Range and Nifty lost 141 points in just 10 minutes. All trends were already down,Nifty was sustaining below 200 Day EMA for the last 34 sessions and forceful breaking down of last 34 session range gave Bear markets confirmations.

Break down was by force on 20-06-2011 and only last technical formality of 3 days sustaining below is left. As breaking down force was strong therefore expected that Nifty will sustain below 34 Sessions Range in the coming 3 sessions.

18 Months Rising Trend Line Broken Down

       Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty- EOD Chart(20-06-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- started on 03/11/2009 from 4538
2- Nifty got support on it 6 times in last 18 months
3- Rising Trend Line broken down

Conclusions

Rising Trend Line broken down forcefully and Nifty plunged 141 points in 10 minutes. All trends were already down,Nifty was sustaining below 200 Day EMA for the last 34 sessions and 18 months uptrend terminated after rising trend line breaking down.

Break down was by force on 20-06-2011 and only last technical formality of 3 days sustaining below is left. As breaking down force was strong therefore expected that Nifty will sustain below rising trend line in the coming 3 sessions.

Head & Shoulders Pattern in 4 months EOD Chart

      Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty- EOD Chart(20-06-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Head & Shoulders Pattern Formation
2- Its Neckline broken down

Conclusions

Neckline broken down by Bullet Force and Nifty nosedived 141 points in 10 minutes. All trends were already down,Nifty was sustaining below 200 Day EMA for the last 34 sessions and Neckline breaking down gave Bearish markets Confirmation.

Break down was by force on 20-06-2011 and only last technical formality of 3 days sustaining below is left. As breaking down force was strong therefore expected that Nifty will sustain below Neckline in the coming 3 sessions.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 20-Jun-2011

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 21-06-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(20-06-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Selling between 5338-5368
2- Selling between 5275-5312

Conclusions

Nifty slipped 141 points in 10 minutes and crucial supports broken down. Intraday selling seen between 5338-5368 before breaking down and after that again selling seen between 5275-5312 after sharp fall.

As whole day selling therefore more down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-06-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Deep Red Closing.
2- Long Black Candle.
3- 34 sessions range broken down by force.
4- Bearish market confirmations.
5- All the Indices closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.89
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-06-2011): 19.42

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES :  510
BSE DECLINES : 2346
NSE ADVANCES :  140
NSE DECLINES : 1305

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Jun)- +2058350(+516.20%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Jun)- +316900(+4.08%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Jun)- +3048100(+152.80%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Jun)- -545900(-7.15%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Jun)- +1440900(+29.76%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Jun)- -929950(-13.29%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,257.90(-108.50 Points & -2.02%)
Sensex- closed at 17,506.63(-363.90 Points & -2.04% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,732.40(-188.75 Points & -2.38%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,907.97(-266.52 Points & -3.26)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-Jun-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Junket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-Jun-2011 2577.97 3090.54 -512.57

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Junket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-Jun-2011 1545.17 681.86 863.31

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-06-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5539
R2 5458
R1 5357
Avg 5276
S1 5175
S2 5094
S3 4993

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5441     Trgt 2
H5 5399     Trgt 1
H4 5357     Long breakout
H3 5307     Go Short
H2 5290
H1 5273
L1 5240
L2 5223
L3 5206     Long
L4 5156     Short Breakout
L5 5114     Trgt 1
L6 5072     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jun Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-06-2011

Nifty(Jun Fut)-Levels

R3 5562
R2 5470
R1 5365
Avg 5273
S1 5168
S2 5076
S3 4971

Nifty(Jun Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5459     Trgt 2
H5 5414     Trgt 1
H4 5368    Long breakout
H3 5314     Go Short
H2 5296
H1 5278
L1 5241
L2 5223
L3 5205     Long
L4 5151     Short Breakout
L5 5105     Trgt 1
L6 5060     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jun Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-06-2011

Bank Nifty(Jun Fut)-Levels

R3 10938
R2 10784
R1 10643
Avg 10489
S1 10348
S2 10194
S3 10053

Bank Nifty(Jun Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10801     Trgt 2
H5 10733     Trgt 1
H4 10664     Long breakout
H3 10583     Go Short
H2 10556
H1 10529
L1 10474
L2 10447
L3 10420     Long
L4 10339     Short Breakout
L5 10270     Trgt 1
L6 10202     Trgt 2

NIFTY-JUN F&O-1ST SELLING OF 20-06-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(JUN FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-5296-TGT-5196-CMP-5266

NIFTY(JUN PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)SL-5296-TGT-5196-S.P.FOR PUT-5200,5300(JUN FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5266

Pre-closing Outlook(20-06-2011)

Intraday selling between 5275-5300 seen after sharp down today therefore more down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

'DTAA renegotiation' news Triggered Indian Bear Markets

A senior finance ministry official said that:-

"India and Mauritius are expected to review the existing Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) soon"

34 sessions range broken down by force and Indian markets fell sharply on concerns that the India government may renegotiate its tax avoidance treaty with the island country, which could lead to lesser incentives to invest in the country via Mauritius route.

Bullish markets all hopes finished today after Nifty fall below 5329 because:-

1- 34 sessions range broken down
2- 18 Months Rising trend line broken down.
3- Last 4 months Head & shoulders neckline broken down.

All trends were already down and above 3 developments in EOD charts triggered bear markets confirmation after India and Mauritius Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) renegotiation news.

As soon as we got first indication of down moves then weakness was immediately told within first 8 minutes when Nifty was trading near higher levels of today and also gave next moves confirmation levels.

Post-open Outlook-2(20-06-2011)

Last 4 months Head & shoulders neckline and 18 months Rising trend line broken down today after moves below 5356. Although Indian markets were positive but showed weakness then it was immediately told within first 8 minutes when Nifty was trading near higher levels of today.

Nifty slipped below 5329 and forceful breaking down of last 34 sessions range therefore it means long bearish phase beginning.

Post-open Outlook(20-06-2011)

Weak opening today morning. Follow up buying is must for any up move from here. Last Friday trading range(5356-5387)break out and sustaining beyond will be watched for next moves confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(20-06-2011)

Most of the Asian markets are positive therefore sentiment is good today morning and expected that Nifty will trade within last Friday trading range(5356-5387) after positive opening. Nifty consolidated within this range last Friday therefore a bounce back is expected and follow up buying today will mean pull back rally possibility.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5356-5420 after Green opening and will finally close positive after more consolidations.

Weekly Outlook(Jun 20 to Jun 24,2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 2 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 20-06-2011
2- Crucial Rising Trend line
3- Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

34 Sessions range bound market

All trends are down and Nifty is sustaining below 200 Day EMA for the last 34 sessions and trading range bound between 5329-5604. Support and Resistances within this range are as follows;-

1- Support between 5329-5375
2- Resistance No.-1 between  5424-5442
3- Resistance No.-2 between  5480-5605

Supports below 5329:-

Support1- 5233
Support2- 5178

Resistance above 5604:-

Resistance1- 5775
Resistance2- 5850
Resistance3- 5944

Nifty-EOD Chart(17-06-2011) showing range bound market:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Nifty is sustaining below 200 Day EMA for the last 34 sessions and all trends are down therefore Bearish market is confirm and only following 2 crucial lines are supporting Indian markets:-

1- 18 months old Rising Trend line and Nifty again got support on it last Friday at 5356.
2- Last 34 sessions range bound market in which Nifty got support at 5329 on 25-05-2011.

Only above 2 positive patterns on EOD charts and until Nifty is sustaining above 2 lines till then upmoves and rally hopes are alive. Nifty sustaining below above 2 lines will be  Indian Bearish markets confirmation because Nifty is already sustaining below 200 Day EMA for the last 34 sessions and all trtends are already down.

18 months old Rising Trend line and it gave support 6 times therefore sustaining beyond this line will be confirmation of Bullish or Bearish phase. Sustaining below 5356 will be first strong indication of Bearish market and its confirmation will be sustaining below 5329.

Very short term indicators are suggesting bounce back and last Friday intraday charts are showing consolidation therefore an upmove expected on Monday but good selling at higher levels therefore market require complete consolidation for sustained rally and decisive up moves and its confirmation will be after crossing next crucial resistance(5442).

As intraday consolidation patterns therefore positive market expected on next Monday. Expected that Nifty will trade within 5329-5604 in the coming week.

Sustaining beyond 18 months old Rising Trend Line(last Friday at 5356) will be first strong Indication of Next Indian markets therefore it should be watched first of all for next move confirmations