Pull Back Rally on Cards

Tomorrow Market(20-05-2011) Outlook,Technical Analysis & Research

Detailed analysis and reasons for Pull Back Rally expectations have been posted in Following topics:-

1- Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-05-2011)
2- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(19-05-2011)
3- Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 days Intra Day Charts(May 17 to May 19,2011)

Conclusions

All trends are down and Nifty sustained 3 days below 5444 but last 3 sessions patterns are suggesting lower levels consolidations and base formations therefore minimum Pull back rally expected in the coming sessions and expected that Nifty will consolidate tomorrow  within last 2 days trading range(5402-5455)and after that upmoves will be seen in the coming week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-May-2011

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 days Intra Day Charts(May 17 to May 19,2011)

Nifty- 3 days Intra Day Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Water Falling pattern on 17-05-2011
2- 2 Days good consolidations between 5402-5431
3- 2 Days minor distributions between 5436-5455

Conclusions

Good consolidations and base formations in last 2 days between 5402-5431 and minor distributions between 5436-5455. Nifty moved down on 17-05-2011 in Water Falling pattern and it means that down moves without much selling.

Good consolidations in last 2 days therefore expected that minor resistances will be crossed and pull back rally will be seen in the coming sessions.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-May-2011 2113.76 22151.17 -37.41

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-May-2011 1127.33 994.99 132.34

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(19-05-2011)

-Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(19-05-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Nifty trading range- 5411-5441
2- Whole day Intraday consolidation between 5412-5431

Conclusions

Minor intraday selling but whole day Intraday consolidation between 5412-5431 therefore today intraday charts are showing strong possibility of up moves tomorrow.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Nifty trading range- 5411-5441
2- Confirm consolidation between 5412-5431 today.
3- Indices closing is mixed but intraday charts of most of the Indices charts are showing consolidations.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.74(Minimum in May 2011)
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-05-2011): 20.20

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1060
BSE DECLINES : 1716
NSE ADVANCES :  467
NSE DECLINES :  924

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(26-05-2011)- +625700(+9.77%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(26-05-2011)- +500900(+6.41%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(26-05-2011)- +299600(+3.66%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(26-05-2011)- -478050(-9.73%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,428.10(+7.50 Points & +0.14%)
Sensex- closed at 18,141.40(+55.20 Points & +0.31%% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,832.90 (-28.65 Points & -0.36%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,145.57(-44.00 Points & -0.54)

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 10783
R2 10721
R1 10633
Avg 10571
S1 10483
S2 10421
S3 10333

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10695    Trgt 2
H5 10661    Trgt 1
H4 10627    Long breakout
H3 10586    Go Short
H2 10572
H1 10558
L1 10531
L2 10517
L3 10503    Long
L4 10462    Short Breakout
L5 10428    Trgt 1
L6 10394    Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5495
R2 5473
R1 5448
Avg 5426
S1 5401
S2 5379
S3 5354

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5471    Trgt 2
H5 5460     Trgt 1
H4 5449     Long breakout
H3 5436     Go Short
H2 5432
H1 5428
L1 5419
L2 5415
L3 5411     Long
L4 5398     Short Breakout
L5 5387     Trgt 1
L6 5376     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5490
R2 5471
R1 5449
Avg 5430
S1 5408
S2 5389
S3 5367

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6  5469    Trgt 2
H5  5459    Trgt 1
H4  5450    Long breakout
H3  5439    Go Short
H2  5435
H1  5431
L1  5424
L2  5420
L3  5416    Long
L4  5405   Short Breakout
L5  5396    Trgt 1
L6  5386    Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook-2(19-05-2011)

Although higher levels minor intraday selling in last 2 days between 5404-5447 but buying is also seen at lower levels and patterns are showing consolidations therefore upmoves possibilities are high.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 19-05-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5394-TGT-5504-CMP-5425

NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5394-TGT-5504-S.P.FOR CALL-5400,5500(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5425

Pre-closing Outlook(19-05-2011)

As consolidation yesterday therefore bounce back was expected today and Nifty traded most of the time in Green area also but selling seen in 5424-5434 today and until Nifty will not sustain above 5434 till then up move will not be considered. As selling seen today therefore down moves will also be possible.

Next move confirmation range is 5400-5447.

Mid-session Outlook(19-05-2011)

Quiet range bound within 5412-5841 with consolidation indications today. As Nifty slipped today from the range of 5428-5441 therefore sustaining beyond this range will be first indication of next moves and crossing 5400-5447 will be Next moves confirmation,

Post-open Outlook(19-05-2011)

Nifty traded within 5402-5447 yesterday with intraday consolidation patterns but Nifty slipped from higher levels today after 45 minutes range bound trading between 5428-5441. Intraday patterns are suggesting consolidations today also and upmove is finally expected. Next move confirmation range is 5400-5447.

Bounce Back Expected Tomorrow(19-05-2011)

Tomorrow(19-05-2011) Market Outlook, Technical Analysis  & Research

No change in EOD charts and indicators therefore views are same and are being repeated again. All trenbds are down and Nifty sustained 2 days below rising trend line of Wave-5. As 3 days sustaining below is technical confirmations requirement and if Nifty sustains below 5444 tomorrow also then it will be confirmation of deeper down moves.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(18-05-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Minor conslidations between 5422-5430
2- Minor Distributions between 5435-5447
3- conslidations between 5402-5425

Conclusions

Intraday Patterns are sugesting consolidations despite Red closing today.

Conclusions & Tomorrow(19-05-2011) Outlook

As intraday patterns of today are suggesting consolidations after yesterday intraday consolidation formations therefore support building up is felt at 5400 and expected that a bounce back will be seen in the coming sessions and Nifty will move above 5444 also. For precaution sustaining above 5400 will be watched tomorrow.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Intraday voltality between 5404-5447.
2- All the Indices closed in Red except IT.
3- Most of the Indices Intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns.

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.85
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-05-2011):20.18

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1034
BSE DECLINES : 1752
NSE ADVANCES :  406
NSE DECLINES : 1000

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5300 CE(26-05-2011)- +240000(+96.08%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(26-05-2011)- -157450(-2.86%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(26-05-2011)- +2300500(+55.99%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(26-05-2011)- +626300(+8.21%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(26-05-2011)- +997750(+13.71%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(26-05-2011)- -415150(-7.75%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,420.60(-18.35 Points & -0.34%)
Sensex- closed at 18,086.20(-51.15 Points & -0.28% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,861.55(-55.20 Points & -0.70%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,189.57(-65.90 Points & -0.80%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 18-May-2011 2451.46 2830.9 -379.44

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 18-May-2011 1115.97 1088.51 27.46

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5512
R2 5486
R1 5453
Avg 5427
S1 5394
S2 5368
S3 5335

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5479     Trgt 2
H5 5465     Trgt 1
H4 5452     Long breakout
H3 5436     Go Short
H2 5430
H1 5425
L1 5414
L2 5409
L3 5403     Long
L4 5387     Short Breakout
L5 5374     Trgt 1
L6 5360     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5525
R2 5494
R1 5459
Avg 5428
S1 5393
S2 5362
S3 5327

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5490    Trgt 2
H5 5475     Trgt 1
H4 5460     Long breakout
H3 5442     Go Short
H2 5436
H1 5430
L1 5417
L2 5411
L3 5405     Long
L4 5387     Short Breakout
L5 5372     Trgt 1
L6 5357     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 10824
R2 10753
R1 10675
Avg 10604
S1 10526
S2 10455
S3 10377

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10746     Trgt 2
H5 10712     Trgt 1
H4 10678     Long breakout
H3 10637     Go Short
H2 10624
H1 10610
L1 10583
L2 10569
L3 10556     Long
L4 10515     Short Breakout
L5 10481     Trgt 1
L6 10447     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(18-05-2011)

Minor selling developed between 5430-5440 today. As sson as we got confirmation of intraday selling today then we covered our long positions without waiting for more down levels.

Indian markets slipped sharp,got intraday support also between 5405-5415 and since then huge voltality. In such voltality technical positions reverses also. All thrends are down and Nifty is trading below 5444 whole day today therefore if Nifty sustains below 5444 tomorrow also then it will be bearish markets confirmations and in that situation sharp down moves will be seen below 5400.  As intraday support also seen at lower levels therefore today trading range(5404-5447) break out will be watched for next moves confirmations