Post-open Outlook(06-05-2011)

Indian markets closed near the lows of the day yesterday but intraday charts did not suggested pure selling but buying signals were also seen therefore following lines were told in all the outlooks posted for today:-

1- Mixed Patterns between 5455-5490
2- Nifty will first trade within or near about 5455-5490 for next moves preparations.

All the Global markets are in Red and sentiment was deep depressed but Indian markets opening is certainly strong. If Nifty sustains at higher levels and close above 5500 today then it will be first indication of yesterday bottom formation yesterday and confirmation will be minimum crossing next resistance range(5525-5560).

Today 1% up is Pull Back Rally and strong move also. Next 2/3 hours intraday charts formations and sustaining beyond 5500 will give next moves first indication.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(06-05-2011)

All trends are down and market is bearish. Market require complete consolidation for a Bullish rally and until that will not happen till then this possibility will not be considered. Short term oscillators are oversold therefore only pull back rally will be expected at this moment and it may begin after couple of hours to couple of sessions consolidation.

Huge voltality is Bear market character and will be seen also. Previous Wave(5177-5944) has been retraced 61.8%(5469) and Nifty closed below it ar 5459 yesterday,as mixed Patterns between 5455-5490 yesterday therefore if fresh consolidation develop near about then a very shot term up move will be seen. Next retracement levels are as follows:-

1- 70.7%- 5401
2- 76.4%- 5358
3- 78.6%- 5341
4- 88.6%- 5264

Next 3 supports are as follows:-

1- 5348
2- 5233
3- 5178

At present 1st Resistance range is 5525-5560 and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then bullish rally begining will not be considered. Mixed Patterns between 5455-5490 yesterday therefore Nifty will first trade within or near about this range for next moves preparations. Intraday consolidation today will mean only pull back rally possibility maximum upto 5525. Market is in Bear phase therefore fresh selling today will mean more sharp down moves toward above mentioned retracement levels and supports.

As mixed Patterns between 5455-5490 in last 3 hours yesterday therefore next immediate market and today closing will be decided according to first 2/3 hours trading.

Tomorrow(06-05-2011) Outlook

Technical Positions have already been posted in following topic with 2 Chart therefore not being repeated

Technical Analysis and Research For 06-05-2011

Sentiment is depressed therefore market may be volatile tomorrow. Market has turned bearish and require complete consolidation for a big rally. Only pull back rally can be expected. Tomorrow expected trading range is 5425-5490

Technical Analysis and Research For 06-05-2011

Technical Analysis of EOD Chart(05-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Next 3 bottoms are next supports:- 

B3- 5348

B2- 5233

B1- 5178

Conclusions

Nifty was already below 55 Day EMA and 200 Day EMA and continuation pattern Pennant cancelled today after breaking down of 5485. Bearish phase confirmation and selling at each step.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(05-05-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

Genuine selling between 5525-5560

Mixed Patterns between 5455-5490

Conclusions

Genuine selling between 5525-5560 and this selling was confirmed at 10:33:00 AM today and following line was told 3 hours before today down move begining:-

"Selling signals emerged between 5540-5559 today"

As mixed Patterns between 5455-5490 today therefore Nifty will first trade within or near about this range for next moves preparations.

Conclusions (After Putting EOD and Intraday charts analysis together)

Bear phase is confirm and following line was also told  at 01:15:00 PM  in Mid-session Outlook-3:-

Now bear market confirmation and more down moves are possible.

Market require complete consolidation for any rally and until that will not haappen till then any rally will not be imagined. 1st reistance range as of today is 5525-5560 and any rally begining will be considered only after sustaining above 5560. Mentioned B1 to B3 will be watched for next supports and pull back rally may be seen from these points in next week.

Sentiment depressed therefore voltality may be seen and Nifty will first trade within or near about 5455-5490 for next moves preparations.

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5648
R2 5604
R1 5531
Avg 5487
S1 5414
S2 5370
S3 5297

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5576     Trgt 2
H5 5549     Trgt 1
H4 5523     Long breakout
H3 5491     Go Short
H2 5480
H1 5469
L1 5448
L2 5437
L3 5426     Long
L4 5394     Short Breakout
L5 5368     Trgt 1
L6 5341     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5669
R2 5621
R1 5539
Avg 5491
S1 5409
S2 5361
S3 5279

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5588     Trgt 2
H5 5558     Trgt 1
H4 5529     Long breakout
H3 5493     Go Short
H2 5481
H1 5469
L1 5446
L2 5434
L3 5422     Long
L4 5386     Short Breakout
L5 5357     Trgt 1
L6 5327     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11240
R2 11123
R1 10935
Avg 10818
S1 10630
S2 10513
S3 10325

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11054     Trgt 2
H5 10985     Trgt 1
H4 10915     Long breakout
H3 10831     Go Short
H2 10803
H1 10775
L1 10720
L2 10692
L3 10664     Long
L4 10580     Short Breakout
L5 10510     Trgt 1
L6 10441     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 05-May-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-May-2011 2005.09 2784.57 -779.48

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-May-2011 1826.36 889.13 937.23

Pre-closing Outlook(05-05-2011)

4 hours intraday genuine selling patterns within 5538-5559 today and after that range broken down as well as breaking of 5485 is confirmation of Bearish market. Following line was told in Mid-session Outlook-3 today,as applicale now also therefore being repeated.

Nifty is down in last 5 minutes.Now bear market confirmation and more down moves are possible.

As told immediately after begining of down moves,same is seen and sharp down moves were seen today.

As selling at each step therefore market require full consolidation for any rally and until that will not haappen till then any up move will not be considered. Down moves are on and next strong support is at 5177..

Mid-session Outlook-3(05-05-2011)

Selling was told in following line at 10:33:00 AM  today

"Selling signals emerged between 5540-5559 today"

Nifty is down in last 5 minutes.Now bear market confirmation and more down moves are possible.

Mid-session Outlook-2(05-05-2011)

Selling signals emerged between 5540-5559 today  and any upmove will get confirmation above 5560. Now next moves confirmation range is 5496-5560. Minor buying and Minor selling ranges within this range are as follows:-

1- Buying- 5515-5525
2- Selling- 5540-5559

As selling signals also emerged today after yesterday buying  within mentioned trading range(5496-5560) therefore market is poised for any side break out.

Mid-session Outlook(05-05-2011)

Support at 5515-5525 was told 12:40 PM yesterday and since then Nifty not moved below it and traded most of the time above it. Market preparation for next moves range of 5496-5550 is given in all the outlooks for today market and Nifty is trading within this range today. Nifty moved above 5550 but slipped and again trading within this range. Let market prepare then final conclusions will be drawn from intraday charts patterns. Suataining beyond this range will be next moves confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(05-05-2011)

Asian markets are flat therefore Sentiment is quiet. Today expected first range is 5496-5550 and Nifty will trade first within this range. This range break out will decide Bear market confirmation or revival of Bull market hopes. Breaking down 5496 will mean that Nifty 5485 will not survive and Bearish phase will commence. Sustaining above 5550 will mean survival of Bull market but confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

Flat opening today but not weak. As lower levels support within 5510-5530 yesterday until Nifty is above it til then Bull market revival hopes are alive. First 15 minutes trading has not shown weakness signals.

Post-closing Report(04-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Most indics closed in Red
2- Reb Candle
3- Mixed intraday trading patterns

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.81
Nifty P/E Ratio(04-05-2011): 20.58

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1073
BSE DECLINES : 1751
NSE ADVANCES :  446
NSE DECLINES :  961

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- +1556900(+111.81%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)- +644250(+14.29%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +1337900(+36.70%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- -194550(-3.42%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,537.15(-28.10 Points & -0.50%)
Sensex- closed at 18,460.62(-74.07 Points & -0.40% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,907.50(-47.55 Points & -0.60%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,390.30(-45.67 Points & -0.54%)

Tomorrow(05-05-2011) Outlook

Technical analysis and Research and next possibilities have already been posted in following topic with 2 ChartS therefore not repeated:-

Technical Analysis and Research For 05-05-2011

55 Day EMA and 200 Day EMA has been broken down and with this all the trends are down now. Only it has to be decided tomorrow and in the coming sessions that Indian markets are moving into bearish phase or not. As short term indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally possibility will also be condidered. Opening will depend on Global cues but final confirmations will be received from sustaining beyond 5485-5550.

Below 5485 will be Bearish phase confirmation. Sustaining above 5550 will mean survival of Bull market but confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

Technical Analysis and Research For 05-05-2011

Technical Analysis of EOD Chart(04-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Next 3 supports

1- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529
2- Gap support between 5485-5496
3- Support at Rising Trendline(5485)

Conclusions

All trends are down and only hope for Bull Market survival is Continuation Pattern Pennant Formation(Bullish). Its Rising Trendline has not been intersected downward yet. Next Gap support is between 5485-5496 and has not been tested in recent fall.

Nifty sustaining below 5485 will be Pennant breaking down and failure of next support(5485-5496) confirmation. Sustaining beyond 5485 will be watched now and it is last hope of Bull market survival.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(04-05-2011)

Add caption

Main Features

1- Panic Top
2- Intraday Resistance 5532-5546
3- Intraday support 5510-5530

Conclusions

Nifty opened gap up,consolidated between 5496-5529 on 24-03-2011 and after that rally upto 5944 was seen. Nifty again traded between this range today. Selling seen between 5532-5546 today and intraday support also seen between 5510-5530 today.

Conclusions (After Putting EOD and Intraday charts analysis together)

5496-5529 is strong suppport range and Nifty traded most of the time between 5510- 5550 today therefore next trading range for tomorrow is 5496-5550 and break out of this range will give almost confirmation to next phase of Indian markets.

Breaking down 5496 will mean that Nifty 5485 will not survive and Bearish phase will commence. Sustaining above 5550 will mean survival of Bull market but confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 04-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 04-May-2011 2137.74 3129.88 -992.15

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 04-May-2011 1775.52 861.42 914.1

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5650
R2 5614
R1 5575
Avg 5539
S1 5500
S2 5464
S3 5425

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5612     Trgt 2
H5 5595     Trgt 1
H4 5578     Long breakout
H3 5557     Go Short
H2 5550
H1 5543
L1 5530
L2 5523
L3 5516     Long
L4 5495     Short Breakout
L5 5478     Trgt 1
L6 5461     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5665
R2 5628
R1 5583
Avg 5546
S1 5501
S2 5464
S3 5419

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5620     Trgt 2
H5 5601     Trgt 1
H4 5583    Long breakout
H3 5560     Go Short
H2 5553
H1 5545
L1 5530
L2 5522
L3 5515     Long
L4 5492     Short Breakout
L5 5474     Trgt 1
L6 5455     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11253
R2 11149
R1 11039
Avg 10935
S1 10825
S2 10721
S3 10611

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11144     Trgt 2
H5 11095     Trgt 1
H4 11046     Long breakout
H3 10987     Go Short
H2 10968
H1 10948
L1 10909
L2 10889
L3 10870    Long
L4 10811     Short Breakout
L5 10762     Trgt 1
L6 10713     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(04-05-2011)

As soon as intraday charts suggested consolidation then following lines were told near the lows of the day in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

1- intraday support indication also between 5515-5525 today
2- As consolidation signals started to emerge today therefore survival hopes of most important support of 5485 is still alive.
3- First of all today range 5505-5550 break out will be watched

Nifty recovered 60 points fast in one hour but retraced more fast and lost all the gains within 15 minutes and again trading between 5505-5550,this range will decide correction completion or continuation therefore mentioned rally should be watched and get confirmations from sustaining beyond given range.