Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-04-2011

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 11863
R2 11769
R1 11700
Avg 11606
S1 11537
S2 11443
S3 11374

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11796     Trgt 2
H5 11759     Trgt 1
H4 11721     Long breakout
H3 11676     Go Short
H2 11661
H1 11646
L1 11617
L2 11602
L3 11587     Long
L4 11542     Short Breakout
L5 11504     Trgt 1
L6 11467     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(19-04-2011)

No change in technical positions therefore views are same which have already been expressed in Mid-session Outlook-2. As supports at lower levels therefore up moves expectations are higher.

Mid-session Outlook-2(19-04-2011)

Following line was told in Mid-session Outlook today

"if nifty consolidate within this range then consolidation and up move confirmation point will be crossing 5762."

Nifty moved up could not cross 5762 and again retraced and trading within 5695-5735. Nifty moved up after some base formation today but could not sustain 2 times  at higher levels as well therefore profit booking possibility between 5735-5760 can not be ruled out today.Intra day technical positions of today are as follows;-

1- Base formation between- 5695-5735
2- Profit Booking between 5735-5760

Correction is on and its completion confirmation not received yet. confirmation points are as follows:-

1- Crossing 5762 will mean correction is complete.
2- Dipping below 5695 will mean more down to test 5651/5561

Mixed patterns between 5695-5762 and its break out will be next moves confirmation. Let market take positions within this range and its conclusions will be drawn from micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart formations.

Mid-session Outlook(19-04-2011)

Today intra day base formation between 5695-5735,after that small spike upto 5762 and then Nifty reversed and trading again within this range. Yesterday last 4 hours consolidation pattern and after that if nifty consolidate within this range then consolidation and up move confirmation point will be crossing 5762.

Post-open Outlook(19-04-2011)

Indian markets out performed global markets and almost flat despite most global markets are more than 1% down. sustaining beyond 5680-5716 is next moves confirmation levels for today. As lower levels consolidation patterns yesterday and if Nifty holds above 5716 today then it will be correction completion confirmation.

Pre-open Outlook(19-04-2011)

Opening expected between 5680-5716 and this range will be watched also for next immediate moves confirmations. Correction is on and long positions should be created after confirm support and base formation minimum on intra day levels.

Post-closing Report(18-04-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today market is as follows:-

1- Long Red Candle
2- Selling between 5870-5890
3- Last 4 hours down move in Water Fall Pattern and it is bullish Formation
4- All Indices closed in Red
5- Higher levels selling and lower levels buying patterns in intra day chart.

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.91
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-04-2011): 21.66

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1075
BSE DECLINES : 1844
NSE ADVANCES :  374
NSE DECLINES : 1040

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5700 CE(28APR2011)- +1674650(+69.73%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28APR2011)- +391450(+5.40%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +2412350(+48.73%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- -167200(-3.31%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(28APR2011)- +1117150(+18.96%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(28APR2011)- -593750(-17.96%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,729.10(-95.45 Points &-1.64%)
Sensex- closed at 19,091.17(-295.65 Points & -1.53% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,197.30(-120.55 Points & -1.45%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,737.06(-71.10 Points & -0.81%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(18-04-2011):-

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Tomorrow(19-04-2011) Outlook

Correction is on and lower levels consolidation patterns in last 2 sessions:-
1- Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern on 15-04-2011
2- Water Fall(Bullish) Pattern on 18-04-2011

As lower levels consolidation patterns therefore only correction and Bear market possibility is negligible.

US markets are trading more than 1.5% down today and such weak closing will certainly hamper the sentiment tomorrow therefore and expected that in that situation most of the Asian markets will be weak and Indian markets gap sown opening possibility can not be ruled out tomorrow. Following levels testing possibility is also on in on going correction:-

1- 5716
2- 5680
2- 5651
3- 5561

Slipping is very much possible in tomorrow like market and above mentilned levels will be watched for correction completion confirmationans;-


1- Firstly stopping of down move
2- after that minimum intra day consolidation and then
3- crossing minimum 1 resistance will be next upmove confirmation.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(18-04-2011)

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1- Selling between 5870-5890
2- Last 4 hours down move in Water Fall Pattern and it is bullish Formation

Conclusions

Same patterns in most of the Indices intraday charts of today. Higher levels selling and last 4 hours Water Fall consolidation patterns between 5790-5725 today. Although 5736 broken down but with consolidation pattern therefore fresh selling is required within 5790-5725 or below for down move confirmaions and fresh consolidation near or above 5700 will mean sharp rally.

All trends are up and today down move is on going correction. Today intraday charts are suggesting consolidation signals and follow up buying in the coming sessions will mean possibility of sharp rally. Highly volatile markets between 5725-5940 in last 5 sessions without one sided patterns and let market prepare for one side moves then final conclusions will be drawn.

As per my view All trends are up,last 8 session moves are short term correction and after its completion sharp rally will be seen.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 18-Apr-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-Apr-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 18-Apr-2011 2528.2 3509.76 -981.56

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 18-Apr-2011 1395.14 733.67 661.47

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-04-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6018
R2 5957
R1 5843
Avg 5782
S1 5668
S2 5607
S3 5493

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5904     Trgt 2
H5 5864     Trgt 1
H4 5825     Long breakout
H3 5777     Go Short
H2 5761
H1 5745
L1 5712
L2 5696
L3 5680     Long
L4 5632     Short Breakout
L5 5593     Trgt 1
L6 5553     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-04-2011

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 6054
R2 5987
R1 5861
Avg 5794
S1 5668
S2 5601
S3 5475

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5929     Trgt 2
H5 5885    Trgt 1
H4 5842     Long breakout
H3 5789     Go Short
H2 5771
H1 5753
L1 5718
L2 5700
L3 5682     Long
L4 5629     Short Breakout
L5 5586     Trgt 1
L6 5542     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-04-2011

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 12214
R2 12077
R1 11826
Avg 11689
S1 11438
S2 11301
S3 11050

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11963     Trgt 2
H5 11876     Trgt 1
H4 11788     Long breakout
H3 11681    Go Short
H2 11646
H1 11610
L1 11539
L2 11503
L3 11468     Long
L4 11361     Short Breakout
L5 11273     Trgt 1
L6 11186     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(18-04-2011)

As Dow's futures is trading more than 40 points down therefore all the global markets showed weakness. Nifty slipped below 5736 and trading below also but last 4 hours intra day charts are not suggesting genuine selling therefore if Nifty will sustain below 5736 tomorrow then that will be deeper correction confirmation.

Highly volatile markets and trend will be confirmed through sustaining beyond only.

Mid-session Outlook-3(18-04-2011)

All the Asian markets slipped from higher levels and closed flat to negative and European markets also opened in Red but Indian markets under performed all and 1.5% down. 5800 broken down forcefully and Nifty sustained below as well. Nifty slipped below 5736 a short while ago and if sustains below then it will be deeper correction confirmation.

Market is down but patterns  are not suggesting genuine selling therefore therefore deeper correction confirmation level is sustaining below 5736.

Mid-session Outlook-2(18-04-2011)

Highly volatile markets therefore in all the outlooks I gave the condition of sustaining above 5875 for rally confirmation. Nifty could not sustain above 5875 and slipped sharply.

It will be better to draw final conclusions in highly volatile markets from sustaining  beyond and present range is sustaining beyond 5800-5875

Mid-session Outlook(18-04-2011)

When most people were telling for bearish markets then following lines for today markets were told at 01:42:00 PM on 16-04-2011 in following topic:-

Positive Market on 18-04-2011

Intra day patterns of last Friday showed lower level support and bullish pattern also therefore Nifty will not dip and will firstly trade between 5810-5875. As minor correction has been completed and bullish intraday pattern(Falling Wedge) also last Friday therefore firstly fresh consolidations and follow up buying between 5810-5875 will be seen after positive opening next Monday

Just verify above lines(which were told 2 days before) from today market and that will prove that today story was written 2 days before.

Following topics were also posted in last 2 days just go through for guidance and confirmation of Indian markets:-

1- Two Positive Formation in Weekly Chart
2- Weekly Outlook(18-04-2011 to 21-04-2011)

Sustaining above 5875 will be first strong indication of Bull rally and crossing 5945 will be confirmation of fast 6120

Post-open Outlook(18-04-2011)

Today outlook was posted in Following Topic with giving lines at 01:42:00 PM on 16-04-2011

Positive Market on 18-04-2011

Intraday patterns of last Friday showed lower level support and bullish pattern also therefore Nifty will not dip and will firstly trade between 5810-5875. As minor correction has been completed and bullish intraday pattern(Falling Wedge) also last Friday therefore firstly fresh consolidations and follow up buying between 5810-5875 will be seen after positive opening next Monday

Just verify above lines(which were told 2 days before) from today market and that will prove that today story was written 2 days before.

Nifty is trading at 5875 and sustaining above today will mean sharp rally.

Weekly Outlook(18-04-2011 to 21-04-2011)

Corrective Sub Wave-F of Wave-5 is on after Sub Wave-E fast 596 points gains in 13 sessions. All trends are up therefore Bullish market is very much alive. Indian markets reacted sharply on vews in previous week, firstly 125.80 points sharp surge on sudden $7 fall and after that  86.95(61.8%) Points down on so called INFY below expectation results. Nifty traded between 5736-5944 in last 2 weks and this range break out will give following conclusions:-

1- Sustaining above 5944 will mean rally after correction completion to test minimum 6120 fast.
2- Sustaining below 5736 will mean correction continuation to test 5651/5561.

Wave-5 Sub Waves with immediate Support & Resistance

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Next trading range is 5736-5944 and contrary developments of news and technicals which are as follows:-

1- Negative news of Inflation rise,Crude rates rise again and sharp fall after Infy results.As per my view INFY over reacted after  results and closed 9.58% down after announcing good results and guidance
2- Positive technical formations are as follows:-
a- Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern between 5850-5812 on 15-04-2011.
b- Weekly MACD Line Positive Cross Over and its means long up trend formation possibility.
c- Continuation Pattern 'Pennant'Formations and its means continuation of on going trend which is Up Trend. Falling trend line(5940) cross-over will be its confirmation.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-5 is on After 'ABC' Correction Completion Chart

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Nifty will trade first between 5736-5944 and prepare for next moves between this range. Nifty crossed almost all the resistances in sharp rally on 13-04-2011 but slipped also on 15-04-2011 and selling patterns seen in Bank,Reality and Auto Stocks therefore for any rally market require consolidation firstly.

Most Asian markets showed consolidation patterns therefore good sentiment expected Monday morning after positive trading Asian markets as well as Green opening also expected in Indian markets and Nifty will trade between first between 5800-5875.

Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern between 5850-5812 and buying between 5808-5826 seen on 15-04-2011 therefore any down move will be considered after sustaining below 5808 and for this fresh commencement of selling required between 5800-5875 on 18-04-2011. Any down move or voltality may be possible between 5736-5944 but Two Positive Formation in Weekly Chart therefore until complete selling will not develop between 5736-5944 till then any down move will not be possible.

Wave-5 is on after 'ABC' correction completion,intraday charts signalling consolidations and weekly charts positive developments also therefore consolidation begining and positive closing expected in the coming week. As some selling also last Friday therefore 5800/5736 will be watched for more correction confirmation. Crossing 5875 and sustaining above 5944 will be confirmation of 6120 fast.

As mixed intra day patterns after INFY led steep fall last Friday therefore confirmations are must. As soon as trend will clear then will be posted accoedingly in the coming sessions.

Corrective Sub Wave-F of Wave-5

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Corrective Sub Wave-F of Wave-5 is on after Sub Wave-E fast 596 points gains in 13 sessions.

Two Positive Formation in Weekly Chart

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Two Positive Formation in Weekly Chart

1- MACD Line Positive Cross Over
2- Continuation Pattern 'Pennant'Formations

That correction is on which was started on Diwali 2010 and Continuation Pattern 'Pennant'Formation has been developed therefore expected that finally upward cross over after crossing Falling Trend line will be seen.

Falling Trend line is at 5940 and Nifty could not moves above it in previous and retraced. Consolidation in the begining of coming week will be strong possibility of crossing 5940 and strong rally toward minimum upto 6120.

Weekly MACD line cross over means strong move possibility and positive cross over had been in last weeks therefore technically Indian markets are well prepared for that rally which is very much possible in the coming weeks.