Weekly Analysis- 28-03-2011 to 01-04-2011
Nifty remained Range bound 40 days within 5178-5608 and forceful break out with upward gap seen last Friday. Nifty survived within menti oned range even after worst national and international news therefore this range is one of the most strong support and its breaking down is not possible in the coming months.
Immediate supports are as follows
1- 1st 2 hours trading range of 25-03-3011- 5561-5581
2- 2nd Gap on 25-03-3011-5529-5561
3- 1st Gap on 24-03-3011-5485-5496
4- Trading range of 24-03-3011- 5500-5520
1-Break Out in EOD Chart
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Wave-5 begun at 5178 on 11-02-2011 and its confirmation came on 25-03-2011 after following developments:-
1- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
2- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
3- 2 months range broken out and proved 2 months consolidations and 5178-5600 established strong support.
4- As correction completion confirmations therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong rally.
5- 4th wave completion at 5178 therefore Wave-5 commencement confirmation also
2- Nifty Waves Structure Chart
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart
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Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Bullish points
1- Nifty crossed above all the averages.
2- MACD upward intersected average line and given rally confirmation.
3- ROC and RSI are above equalibrium line,moving up and below overbought line.
Bearish points
1- Nifty moved above upper Band of Bollinger Band therefore indicating stabilising here or very short term down move possibility.
2- Slow Stochastic is near overbought line therefore indicating little more upside possibility.
3- William %R is above overbought line therefore indicating down side possibility but this indicator remains too much time in overbought zone therefore when other indicators will also suggest for bearish moves then it will be down otherwise correction can be expected after its turning overbought.
Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Very short term indicators are little overbought therefore indicating very short term intraday or 1/2 days correction only otherwise rally commencement confirmations.
Conclusions
Sentiment heated and very short term indicators are in over bought zone therefore very short term correction is possible in the begining of week for cooling of indicators and sentiment. Slipping and moving below 5600 again possibility can not be ruled out but Nifty will not sustain below 200-Say EMA expected that rally will remain continued after expected correction. Correction will depend on news flow and heat of sentiment on Monday and if global cues does not show any weakness then then correction at higher levels or within range bound moves may also be seen in the begining of week.
5th Wave is confirm and finally rally will remain continued. Multiple resistances between 5700-5900 therefore rally may be slow but will remain contined in the coming week and weekly closing will be positive.
