Post-closing Report(28-03-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Indian markets out performed Asian Markets and closed positive despite all Asian markets Red closing. Most stocks intra day charts and Indices charts are showing consolidations except last 2 hours trading between 5691-5703 because some selling indications within this range. When such signals were observed then I told in my Blog for possibility of a dip and that was seen also and Indices closed after minor slipping from higher levels. Good consolidations at lower levels and most stocks are also showing consolidations therefore Bullish Outlook is maintained.

Nifty Intra Day Chart of Today:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty F&O data of today as follows

Put Call Ratio- 1.02

Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(31MAR2011)- -468300(-10.97%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(31MAR2011)- +881250(+13.52%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(31MAR2011)- -198850(-3.02%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(31MAR2011)- +2359100(+75.28%)

Today Closing

Nifty- closed at 5687.25(+33.00 Points & +0.58% )
SENSEX- closed at 18943.14(+127.50 Points & +0.68%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7866.55(+42.40 Points & +0.54%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8011.63(+10.00 Points & +0.12%)

Tomorrow(29-03-2011) Outlook

Strong up trend and no other selling signal except 2 hours some selling indications within 5691-5703 today. 5600 forceful break out and sustaining above today also gave strong rally confirmations. Complete selling patterns are required for any decisive down moves and until that will not happen till then any down move will not be imagined and after 2 months range break out any selling development can not be dreamed also.

Markets consolidates at higher levels and only minor dips are seen in Bullish markets therefore continuation of rally expected after some intraday trading within today intraday range(5655-5703) or above if Global cues remains strong. As very short term indicators are overbought minor correction possibility can not be ruled out but Nifty will not sustain below 5580 in worst situations also.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 28-Mar-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Mar-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 28-Mar-2011 2889.97 1999.95 890.01

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 28-Mar-2011 1519.73 1806.25 -286.52

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-03-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5782
R2 5745
R1 5716
Avg 5679
S1 5650
S2 5613
S3 5584

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5753     Trgt 2
H5 5738     Trgt 1
H4 5723     Long breakout
H3 5705     Go Short
H2 5699
H1 5693
L1 5680
L2 5674
L3 5668     Long
L4 5650     Short Breakout
L5 5635     Trgt 1
L6 5620     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-03-2011

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5797
R2 5763
R1 5731
Avg 5697
S1 5665
S2 5631
S3 5599

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5765    Trgt 2
H5 5750    Trgt 1
H4 5735     Long breakout
H3 5717     Go Short
H2 5711
H1 5705
L1 5692
L2 5686
L3 5680     Long
L4 5662     Short Breakout
L5 5647     Trgt 1
L6 5632     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-03-2011

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11994
R2 11818
R1 11688
Avg 11512
S1 11382
S2 11206
S3 11076

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11871     Trgt 2
H5 11799     Trgt 1
H4 11727     Long breakout
H3 11643     Go Short
H2 11615
H1 11587
L1 11530
L2 11502
L3 11474     Long
L4 11390     Short Breakout
L5 11318     Trgt 1
L6 11246     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook(28-03-2011)

Indian markets are out performing Asian Markets and trading positive while all other Asian markets closed in Red today. It is the strength of rally that intraday correction seen at higher levels only and market could not dip despite weaker Asian cues.

Indian markets are positive and rally will remain continued but today intraday charts are suggesting possibility of a dip therefore little cautious approach is required.

Rally after Very Short Term Correction

Weekly Analysis- 28-03-2011 to 01-04-2011

Nifty remained Range bound 40 days within 5178-5608 and forceful break out with upward gap seen last Friday. Nifty survived within menti   oned range even after worst national and international news therefore this range is one of the most strong support and its breaking down is not possible in the coming months.

Immediate supports are as follows

1- 1st 2 hours trading range of 25-03-3011- 5561-5581
2- 2nd Gap on 25-03-3011-5529-5561
3- 1st Gap on 24-03-3011-5485-5496
4- Trading range of 24-03-3011- 5500-5520

1-Break Out in EOD Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Wave-5 begun at 5178 on 11-02-2011 and its confirmation came on 25-03-2011 after following developments:-

1- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
2- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
3- 2 months range broken out and proved 2 months consolidations and 5178-5600 established strong support.
4- As correction completion confirmations therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong rally.
5- 4th wave completion at 5178 therefore Wave-5 commencement confirmation also

2- Nifty Waves Structure Chart

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Bullish points

1- Nifty crossed above all the averages.
2- MACD upward intersected average line and given rally confirmation.
3- ROC and RSI are above equalibrium line,moving up and below overbought line.

Bearish points

1- Nifty moved above upper Band of Bollinger Band therefore indicating stabilising here or very short term down move possibility.
2- Slow Stochastic is near overbought line therefore indicating little more upside possibility.
3- William %R is above overbought line therefore indicating down side possibility but this indicator remains too much time in overbought zone therefore when other indicators will also suggest for bearish moves then it will be down otherwise correction can be expected after its turning overbought.

Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Very short term indicators are little overbought therefore indicating very short term intraday or 1/2 days correction only otherwise rally commencement confirmations.

Conclusions

Sentiment heated and very short term indicators are in over bought zone therefore very short term correction is possible in the begining of week for cooling of indicators and sentiment. Slipping and moving below 5600 again possibility can not be ruled out but Nifty will not sustain below 200-Say EMA expected that rally will remain continued after expected correction. Correction will depend on news flow and heat of sentiment on Monday and if global cues does not show any weakness then then correction at higher levels or within range bound moves may also be seen in the begining of week.

5th Wave is confirm and finally rally will remain continued. Multiple resistances between 5700-5900 therefore rally may be slow but will remain contined in the coming week and weekly closing will be positive.

Nifty Waves Structure

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Wave-5 begun at 5178 on 11-02-2011 and its confirmation came on 25-03-2011 after following developments:-

1- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
2- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
3- 2 months range broken out and proved 2 months consolidations and 5178-5600 established strong support.
4- As correction completion confirmations therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong rally.
5- 4th wave completion at 5178 therefore Wave-5 commencement confirmation also

5900 testing possibility has been told in Pre-Open Outlook on 25-03-2011 and next targets will be disclosed at proper time.

Post-closing Report(25-03-2011) & Monday Outlook

Trend reversal after forceful Break out today and it was expected also today therefore following lines were told in the Blog in Pre-Open Market Outlook today:-

"Nifty sustaining above 5600 will mean worst is over and then fast rally toward 5900 will be seen after completion of correction."

Intraday charts of today clearly told for rally therefore following lines were told in the Blog at 11:46AM today:-

"1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher."

Following bullish moves and confirmations seen today;-

1- 2 months range broken out
2- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
3- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today. 
4- The correction which started from Diwali-2010,has been completed today. 
5- Today rally gave confirmation to 5th Wave which started on 11-02-2011 from 5178.

2 Months Range & Pennant Break Out Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty F&O data of today as follows 

Put Call Ratio- 1.05

Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(31MAR2011)- -1289100(--23.62%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(31MAR2011)- +570950(+8.08%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(31MAR2011)- -1629950(-25.85%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(31MAR2011)- +4256850(+168.59%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(31MAR2011)- -303950(-4.39%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(31MAR2011)- +2583700(549.78%)

Today Closing

Sensex- closed at 18,815.64(+464.90 Points & +2.53% )
Nifty- closed at 5654.25(+131.85 Points & +2.39%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7824.15(+76.95 Points & +0.99%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,001.63(+80.79 Points & +1.02%)


Monday(28-03-2011) Outlook

Indian markets bullish developments have been discussed above. Next immediate multiple resistances are between 5680-5900 and Indian markets have to consolidate between this range but today break out after 2 months consolidations is confirmation of correction completion. Fresh Rally begining and Wave 5 got confirmations today.

Sentiment will be heated therefore profit booking possibility can not be ruled out but rally will remain continued after fresh consolidations. 21st March 2011 started rally minimum target is 5911 and minor intraday correction is also possible in the process of consolidation and up moves may be slow but up trend will remain intact.

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5801
R2 5734
R1 5694
Avg 5627
S1 5587
S2 5520
S3 5480

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5762     Trgt 2
H5 5737     Trgt 1
H4 5712     Long breakout
H3 5683     Go Short
H2 5673
H1 5663
L1 5644
L2 5634
L3 5624     Long
L4 5595     Short Breakout
L5 5570     Trgt 1
L6 5545     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2011

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5847
R2 5770
R1 5725
Avg 5648
S1 5603
S2 5526
S3 5481

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5804     Trgt 2
H5 5775     Trgt 1
H4 5747     Long breakout
H3 5713     Go Short
H2 5702
H1 5691
L1 5668
L2 5657
L3 5646     Long
L4 5612     Short Breakout
L5 5584     Trgt 1
L6 5555     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2011

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11918
R2 11706
R1 11578
Avg 11366
S1 11238
S2 11026
S3 10898

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11800     Trgt 2
H5 11719     Trgt 1
H4 11638     Long breakout
H3 11544     Go Short
H2 11513
H1 11482
L1 11419
L2 11388
L3 11357     Long
L4 11264     Short Breakout
L5 11182     Trgt 1
L6 11101     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(28-03-2011 to 01-04-2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6083
R2 5875
R1 5764
Avg 5556
S1 5445
S2 5237
S3 5126

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5991     Trgt 2
H5 5910     Trgt 1
H4 5829     Long breakout
H3 5741     Go Short
H2 5712
H1 5683
L1 5624
L2 5595
L3 5566     Long
L4 5478     Short Breakout
L5 5397     Trgt 1
L6 5316.    Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Mar-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Mar-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Mar-2011 3305.51 1859.33 1446.18

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Mar-2011 1298.97 1612.74 -313.77

Pre-closing Outlook(25-03-2011)

Following line was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook today

Nifty sustaining above 5600 will mean worst is over and then fast rally toward 5900 will be seen after completion of correction. 

Following line was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook today

5580 was told trend decider and Nifty is trading a little below since opening today. 1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher.

Conclusions-

1- Correction started from Diwali 2010.
2- Correction has been completed in 40 sessions range bound moves.
3- Rally started today toward minimum 5900.

(Detailed analysis will be posted in "Post-closing Report(25-03-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook" today and in "weekly" in next 2 days)

Mid-session Outlook-2(25-03-2011)

When Nifty was trading below 5580 then following line was told today:-

1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher.

Intraday high formed at 5625.25 today

Break out and rally expected above 5600 now.

Mid-session Outlook(25-03-2011)

5580 was told trend decider and Nifty is trading a little below since opening today. 1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher.

Next rally confirmation point left is only crossing and sustaining above 5580.

5580 is Strong Rally Decider

Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-03-2011)

Technical positions,Supports,Resistances,F&O data and levels have already been discussed in "Post-closing Report(24-03-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook" yesterday  therefore not being repeated today.

US markets closed with good gains yesterday and all the Asian markets are positive today morning,sentiment strong therefore positive opening and Nifty will first hover around 5550 and in the begining.  Nifty will trade in last resistance range(5540-5580) and today follow up buying and consolidation will give confirmation to yesterday buying and consolidation.

Following lines were told in yesterday Pre-Open Outlook that

"Pennant formation in EOD chart and its break out will give first strong indication of next Indian markets moves and confirmation points will be sustaining beyong 5400 or 5600."

1- Pennant up side break out in EOD Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Pennant up side break out seen yesterday and if Nifty sustains above trend line then it will be strong indication of rally and then market above 5600 will be expected.

Indian markets will participate Global markets rally after gap up opening and will trade in last resistance range today. Nifty retraced 2 times from 5600 in last 2 months therefore today intraday consolidation is must. Nifty sustaining above 5600 will mean worst is over and then fast rally toward 5900 will be seen after completion of correction. 

Bullish sentiment is high and only cautious approach is required at the top of last 2 months range. Today consolidation and sustaining above 5580 will pave the way of Indian mrkets strong rally toward minimum 5900.

Post-closing Report(24-03-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Gap up opening,whole day trading within resistance range(5500-5535) and closing near the top of the day today. Nifty intraday charts of today is indicating some selling signals and pivotal stocks are showing also mixed patterns. I mean to say that some stocks are showing clear buying formations and some are showing selling formations also.

Nifty F&O data of today as follows 

Put Call Ratio- 1.17

Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(31MAR2011)- -163600(-2.65%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(31MAR2011)- +1311650(+22.07%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(31MAR2011)- -251400(-3.7300%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(31MAR2011)- +990100(+59.61%)

Today Closing

Sensex- closed at 18350.74(+144.58 Points & +0.79% )
Nifty- closed at 5522.40(+42.15 Points & +0.77%%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,747.20(+46.10 Points & +0.60%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7868.13(+52.71 Points & +0.67%)

Nifty Intra Day Chart of Today:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Tomorrow(25-03-2011) Outlook

Immediate Resistances are as follows:-

1- 5500-5535 
2- 5540-5580

It seems that global markets have discounted all the bad news of last one month and started to recover and Indian markets are also following suit. Intraday charts of today are showing mixed patterns and Nifty PUT options positions building today are suggesting follow up buying and more consolidations requirements for sustained up moves because next and strong resistance range is just above today trading range.

Nifty has retraced from 5600 earlier and complete consolidations require in the coming sessions between 5500-5580 for sustained rally above 5600. Let clear signals develop and intraday charts show buying patterns then moves above 5600 will get confirmations.

Next move indication range is 5500-5580. Just watch sustaining beyond this range for next moves confirmations.