Japan earthquake & Indian Stock Markets Technicals

Post-closing outlook(11-03-2011)

Japan earthquake proved strong support at 5400 bcause:-

1- Nifty got support at 5411 today after Japan earthquake news.
2- Nifty got support at 5408 on 07-03-22011 after DMK support withdrawl news.

Today global down moves are immdiate reaction of  earthquake,achual losses and its after effectes will be understood in the coming days. 5400 has become trend decider today and its sustainability side will decide give following conclusions:-

1- Nifty above 5400 will mean- upmove hopes are alive and Nifty sustaining above will mean worst is over.
2- Nifty below 5400 will mean- fast down toward 5200 and Nifty sustaining below 5200 will mean strong support breaking down and confirmation of long Bear phase.

I have already told in last 2 sessions that intraday charts of last 3 sessions within 5470-5530 are suggesting condolidations and down moves are on the back of adverse news flow in last 2 sessions.

Firstly watch Sustining of 5400 and then trade with above mentioned views in next week.

Happy Weekend and Enjoy.

Japan hit by massive earthquake

Mid-session outlook(01-03-2011)

A powerful earthquake has struck off Japan's north-eastern coast, shaking buildings in Tokyo and forcing people out of their homes, witnesses said.

Japan issued its most serious tsunami warning, saying a wave as high as 6m (20ft) could strike the coast near Miyagi prefecture.

US officials said the 8.8-magnitude quake struck about 250 miles (400km) from Tokyo at a depth of 20 miles.

Above news triggered fresh down moves in all Asian markets and ascertained Nifty sustaining below 5470. More down moves will also be seen.

January IIP at 3.7 Vs 1.6(MoM) & Voltality

Mid-session outlook(01-03-2011)


Market is volatile immediately after IIP data announcemets. As data is positive therefore little up move seen immediately after declaration. Nifty recovered and formed the high at 5502.70 but slipped to 5469.00 also.

Market is volatile and immediate moves final conclusions should be drawn after sustaining beyond of 5470-5500 because it will be markets final judgement of its reaction on all positive and negative news.

Next Trend Confirmation Range- 5470-5500

Post-open outlook(11-03-2011)

Following lines were told in Pre-closing outlook(10-03-2011):-

"Indian markets are also weak and trading within 5470-5500 with intraday support within 5470-5480 today"

Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook(11-03-2011):-

"Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels"

Nifty is trading within 5470-5485 since opening today in most bearish sentiments. Asian markets are .75% to 1% down while Indian markets are .15% down at this moment. It is clear that Indian markets are outperforming global markets and be brarish only after sustaining below 5470.

Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels and also trading within this range since opening today in most depressing sentiments. Next immediate trend confirmation range is 5470-5500 and Nifty is trading at the midle of this range at this moment. Although sentiment is most depressing and negative news flow is high but consolidations within 5500-5530 in the first 3 sessions of this week also therefore resistances above 5500 are not strong.


Watch 5470-5500 and Be Bullish or Bearish after breaking out and sustaining beyond.

Technicals are Helpless against Negative news Flow in 2011

Pre-Open Market Outlook(11-03-2011)


2011 begun with positive note but immdiately after that non stop series of adverse news flow started and resultant Indian markets are crashed from higher levels. Long term trend is confirm down and intermediate term and short term trends are struggeling at 5500 in side ways moves. All the global markets tumblled yesterday after most negative development in Libya and this process is continued also and the Asian markets are trading in deep Red today morning.

Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels but today opening and firstly trading below yesterday lows can not be ruled out because all the Asian markets are showing complete weaknes. Global pressure is high and markets will be decided according to sustainability beyond ceratin levels. Trend deciding levels are as follows:-

1- Range bound within 5400-5600 and this range break out will be confirmation of next moves. technicals are suggesting upward break out because last 4 sessions consolidation formations but negative news flow is dragging down therefore mentioned range break out will give next immediate move confirmations.
2- Long 6term trend will be up above 5600 therefore be bullish after sustaining above 5600.
3- Sharp down moves will be seen below 5400.

Firstly watch 5400-5600 break out and sustaining beyond because that will give confirmation to Indian markets reaction on all global negative developments.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-03-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 10-Mar-2011.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 10-Mar-2011 1642.86 1740.05 -97.19 Archives

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 10-Mar-2011.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 10-Mar-2011 743.14 634.16 108.98

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 10-03-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-03-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5565
R2 5540
R1 5517
Avg 5492
S1 5469
S2 5444
S3 5421

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy 

H6 5542     Trgt 2
H5 5531     Trgt 1
H4 5520     Long breakout
H3 5507     Go Short
H2 5502
H1 5498
L1 5489
L2 5485
L3 5480     Long
L4 5467     Short Breakout
L5 5456     Trgt 1
L6 5445     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-03-2011

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5573
R2 5544
R1 5524
Avg 5495
S1 5475
S2 5446
S3 5426

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5553     Trgt 2
H5 5542     Trgt 1
H4 5530     Long breakout
H3 5517     Go Short
H2 5512
H1 5508
L1 5499
L2 5495
L3 5490     Long
L4 5477     Short Breakout
L5 5465     Trgt 1
L6 5454     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-03-2011

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11165
R2 11066
R1 10972
Avg 10873
S1 10779
S2 10680
S3 10586

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11072     Trgt 2
H5 11028     Trgt 1
H4 10984     Long breakout
H3 10931     Go Short
H2 10913
H1 10895
L1 10860
L2 10842
L3 10824     Long
L4 10771     Short Breakout
L5 10727     Trgt 1
L6 10683     Trgt 2

Pre-closing outlook(10-03-2011)

Dow's futures is more than 100 points,all the Asian markets closed in Red,all European markets are also 1% down. Indian markets are also weak and trading within 5470-5500 with intraday support within 5470-5480 today. Last 2 sessions consolidation within 5500-5530 and today negative trading is only the impact of Qaddafi Strikes on Oil Targets.

As intraday charts not showed selling today and support at lower levels also therefore until Nifty will not dip and sustain below below 5470 till then view will not be bearish. Technically bullish indications but worsening geopolitical situation is main hurdle. View is bullish and let some more bullish confirmations come then will be posted accordingly.

Qaddafi attack on oil infrastructure triggered global markets down moves today

Mid-session outlook(10-03-2011)

Gaddafi attack on oil infrastructure triggered global markets nevourness and all the Asian markets are .5% to 1.5% down today and Dow's futures trading is also more than 90 points down since morning today.

Just click following link for detailed news:-

"Qaddafi Strikes Oil Targets as Libya’s East-West Split Hardens"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/qaddafi-forces-strike-central-oil-ports-as-reward-posted-for-rebel-leader.html

Just watch Nifty sustaining below 5500 for fresh down moves because last 2 sessions consolidations betwen 5500-5530. If Nifty sustains below 4400 and slips below today low at 5468 then it will be down move confirmation.

Post-open outlook(10-03-2011)

US futures is trading more than 90 points down since today morning therefore all the Asian markets are completely depressed since opening today. Intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidations between 5500-5530 but trading below 5500 today after pressure from global sentiments.

If Nifty sustains below 5500 today then view will be bearish.

Pre-open outlook-2(10-03-2011)

All the Asian markets are crashed therefore sentiment is completely dampened and market will trade within negative zone after weak opening. View will be cautious and will be bearish only after sustaining below yesterday 2 days strong support range(5500-5530)

If Nifty sustains below 5500 then be bearish.

Sustained rally above 5600 is on Cards

Pre-Open Market Outlook(10-03-2011)


Follwing fundamental and Technical points are showing weakness in Indian markets:-

1- Long term trend is down,Intermediate term and short term trends are sideways.
2- Libya issue not resolved and Crude price hike risk is still alive.
3- Nifty retraced 2 times from 200 Day EMA(near 5600)
4- Nifty could not cross immediate resistance range(5540-5590) slipped from higher levels yesterday.

Following technical developments are suggesting base formation and begining of rally:-

1- Support near strong support of 5210.
2- Falling channel break out.
3- Support at Falling Channel on 24-02-2011.
4- Higher bottom support at 5432 on 24-02-2011.
5- Up move in rising trend line.

1- EOD chart showing 5 Technical Developments suggesting Rally:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Meaning of Nifty above 5600:-

1- All trends turing up.
2- Begining of rally after 2 months consolidations.
3- Confirmation of corretcion completion which started on diwali-2010.
4- Completion of 4th wave correction.
5- 5th wave begining confirmation after completion of 3 wave correction.

2- 5 Waves Formations in Nifty EOD chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Long tail Doji candle fomation yesterday and it is suggesting equal force of Bulls and Bears but intraday charts of last 3 days are suggetsing consolidations and yesterday slipping from higher levels is a part of consolidation process only. Nest resistance between 5540-5580 but Nifty will consolidate within this range and will cross in the coming sessions.

Libya problems are unresolved but Indian markets showed consolidations and base formations  despite disturbance there and crude price hike risk also therefore:-

"Sustained rally above 5600 will be seen in the coming sessions despite whatsoever negative happens in Libya or any where else."

First support range is 5500-5530 and expected that nifty will not dip below it and finally sustain above 5530 and close positive today.

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-03-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5656
R2 5609
R1 5570
Avg 5523
S1 5484
S2 5437
S3 5398

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy 

H6 5617     Trgt 2
H5 5598     Trgt 1
H4 5578     Long breakout
H3 5554    Go Short
H2 5546
H1 5538
L1 5523
L2 5515
L3 5507     Long
L4 5483     Short Breakout
L5 5463     Trgt 1
L6 5444     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-03-2011

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5678
R2 5625
R1 5583
Avg 5530
S1 5488
S2 5435
S3 5393

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5637     Trgt 2
H5 5615     Trgt 1
H4 5593     Long breakout
H3 5567     Go Short
H2 5558
H1 5549
L1 5532
L2 5523
L3 5514     Long
L4 5488     Short Breakout
L5 5466     Trgt 1
L6 5444     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-03-2011

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11284
R2 11187
R1 11095
Avg 10998
S1 10906
S2 10809
S3 10717
                                                                                
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11193     Trgt 2
H5 11150     Trgt 1
H4 11106     Long breakout
H3 11054     Go Short
H2 11037
H1 11020
L1 10985
L2 10968
L3 10951     Long
L4 10899.     Short Breakout
L5 10855     Trgt 1
L6 10812     Trgt 2

Mid-session outlook-2(09-03-2011)

Market firstly slipped after "oil Prices re-Regulation news" and recovered after Petroleum ministery clearification that Govt.has no plans now to regulate petrol prices.

Sudhir Bhargava, additional secretary in India's oil ministry said today that-

"There is no plan to regulate petrol prices now, but there is a provision that if prices go to astronomically high levels then the government may intervene."

Risk of re regulation is over and Nifty is trading below immediate resistance range with support at lower levels today. Intraday charts of today are showing consolidation patterns today and up  moves are expected but sustainability above immediate resistance range(5540-5580) is must for decisive rally.

News based voltality may also be seen therefore be cautious.

Mid-session outlook(09-03-2011)

Indian markets slipped after "oil Prices re-Regulation news" today morning. Market is nervous because this move is an indication of moving back from reform process and it will also increase fiscal deficit due to higher burden of oil subsidy.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-03-2011)

Crude price slipping fuelled global markets rally and most markets closed positive yesterday. As amicable solution between UPA and DMK and confusion is over therefore Indian markets will respond positive developments with positive opening today and will trade rirst within next resistance range 5540-5580. Positive moves are totally news based today and trend will be decided after sustaining above or below crucial levels which are as follows:-

1- Next immediate resistance range is 5540-5580 and Nifty sustaining above 5580 will mean maximum possibility of long term and all trends turning up.
2- Sustaing below 5500 will be confirmation of down trend begining.

Crude rates and Middle-East news are creating lot of confusions and causing much voltality in all global markets therefore if Nifty sustais above yesterday range(5000-5025) then it will be strong indication of upmoves today. Yesterday intraday charts are suggesting consolidation and let market prepare today also then final conclusions will be drawn from intraday charts patterns today.

Expected that Nifty will whole day trade,prepare for next moves and close within  5520-5580 today. Yesterday consolidation and today follow up buying after will be strong indication of up moves.