NIFTY FEB F & O(BOUGHT ON 25-01-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5723(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST BOOK PROFIT)
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Pre-Open Market Outlook(27-01-2011)
As good consolidation between 5630-5700 and break out on Monday therefore strong rally was expected but Nifty slipped sharply last Tuesday after more than 4 hours trading within 5750-5800 and reasons of this fall are as follows:-
1- Sentiment was heated bue to positive all the global markets Tuesday morning.
2- As Repo rate hike was 25 points therefore already heated sentiment evaporated and retailers huge buying built up.
Profit booking developed in news based heated sentiment last Tuesday. Technical positions of last Tuesday is as follows:-
1- Bearish Engulfing candle formation
2- 4 Hours selling within 5750-5800
3- Last 2 hours down move patterns indicating consolidation patterns.
Lat 7 sessions supports and resistancs are as follows:-
1- Strong support range 5630-5700.
2- Selling range 5750-5800.
Nifty formed the bottom at 5681 last Tuesday therefore today expected 1st range should be 5680-5750 and Indian markets will prepare for next moves within this range. Following points are suggesting continuation of rally despite sharp declines last Tuesday:-
1- Wave-3 is on and last 4 months EOD charts are not suggesting distribution patterns at higher levels therefore on going down move is intermediate term correction only to get support at 200-Day EMA and that has already been happened.
2- Already got strong supports at lower levels within 5630-5700.
3- It seems that last Tuesday sharp slipping is for cooling down of sentiment only to discourage retailers from rolling over long positions to next settelment.
1st trading range is 5680-5750 and expected that Indian markets will consolidate within this range today as well as in the coming sessions to cross firstly 5800 and then higher levels.
Continuation of rally and Green closing expected after fresh consolidation within 5680-5750 today.
1- Sentiment was heated bue to positive all the global markets Tuesday morning.
2- As Repo rate hike was 25 points therefore already heated sentiment evaporated and retailers huge buying built up.
Profit booking developed in news based heated sentiment last Tuesday. Technical positions of last Tuesday is as follows:-
1- Bearish Engulfing candle formation
2- 4 Hours selling within 5750-5800
3- Last 2 hours down move patterns indicating consolidation patterns.
Lat 7 sessions supports and resistancs are as follows:-
1- Strong support range 5630-5700.
2- Selling range 5750-5800.
Nifty formed the bottom at 5681 last Tuesday therefore today expected 1st range should be 5680-5750 and Indian markets will prepare for next moves within this range. Following points are suggesting continuation of rally despite sharp declines last Tuesday:-
1- Wave-3 is on and last 4 months EOD charts are not suggesting distribution patterns at higher levels therefore on going down move is intermediate term correction only to get support at 200-Day EMA and that has already been happened.
2- Already got strong supports at lower levels within 5630-5700.
3- It seems that last Tuesday sharp slipping is for cooling down of sentiment only to discourage retailers from rolling over long positions to next settelment.
1st trading range is 5680-5750 and expected that Indian markets will consolidate within this range today as well as in the coming sessions to cross firstly 5800 and then higher levels.
Continuation of rally and Green closing expected after fresh consolidation within 5680-5750 today.
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 27-01-2011
H6 5822 Trgt 2
H5 5794 Trgt 1
H4 5766 Long breakout
H3 5731 Go Short
H2 5720
H1 5708
L1 5686
L2 5674
L3 5663 Long
L4 5628 Short Breakout
L5 5600 Trgt 1
L6 5571 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 27-01-2011
Nifty Spot Levels for 27-01-2011
R3 5886
R2 5844
R1 5765
AVG 5723
S1 5644
S2 5602
S3 5523
Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 27-01-2011
R3 5903
R2 5859
R1 5778
AVG 5734
S1 5653
S2 5609
S3 5528
Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 27-01-2011
R3 11592
R2 11443
R1 11186
AVG 11037
S1 10780
S2 10631
S3 10374
NIFTY-FEB F&O-2ND BUYING OF 25-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(FEB FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5674-TGT-5741-CMP-5696
NIFTY(FEB CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(FEB FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5674-TGT-5741 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5696
(BUY SAME QUANTITY OF TODAY BOUGHT 5800 CALL OPTION)
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 25-01-2011-MESSAGE
NIFTY-JAN-5800 CALL OPTION(BOUGHT TODAY)-MARKET MAY BE VOLATILE THEREFORE HOLD & JUST WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 25-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5800-SL AND TGT SENDING WITHIN 30 MINUTES
Rally despite whatsoever RBI credit policy
Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-01-2011)
Following lines were clearly told in weekly analysis :-
"Firstly rally expected in the begining of coming week"
Detailed analysis which resulted today rally has already been explained in weekly yesterday and now next level is 5752,and sustaining above will mean short term trend turning up. Intermediate term trend will be up after sustaining above 5874. Resistances near 5752 and 5874 and after sustaining above 5874 will mean strong rally to test 6300 and above..
RBI credit policy will be announced today,As too much uncertainity and sentiment is completely confused therefore firstly huge voltality is possible today. Although last 6 sessions range has not broken out but yesterday intraday charts near 5752 suggesting consolidation patterns therefore expected that rally will be seen after sustaining above 5752 despite whatsoever RBI credit policy today.
Continuation of rally and Green closing expected today.
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy for 25-01-2011
H6 5805 Trgt 2
H5 5790 Trgt 1
H4 5775 Long breakout
H3 5757 Go Short
H2 5751
H1 5745
L1 5734
L2 5728
L3 5722 Go Long
L4 5704 Short Breakout
L5 5689 Trgt 1
L6 5674 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 25-01-2011
R3 5824
R2 5790
R1 5766
AVG 5732
S1 5708
S2 5674
S3 5650
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 25-01-2011
R3 5833
R2 5796
R1 5768
AVG 5731
S1 5703
S2 5666
S3 5638
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 25-01-2011
R3 11529
R2 11357
R1 11256
AVG 11084
S1 10983
S2 10811
S3 10710
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 21-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 21-01-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5738(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST BOOK PROFIT NOW)
Mid-session outlook(24-01-2011)
Following lines were clearly told in weekly today morning:-
"Firstly rally expected in the begining of coming week"
Rally seen immediately today morning and Next resistance is at 5752. Nifty traded little below it for the last one hour and and crossed now. Nifty sustaining above 5752 will mean crossing of strong resistance as well as short term trend turning upward.
As last one hour intraday charts are suggesting consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will cross and sustain above 5752.
Nifty(Spot)-Trading Strategy for 24-01-2011
Nifty(Spot)-Trading Strategy for 24-01-2011
H6 5740 Trgt 2
H5 5730 Trgt 1
H4 5720 Long breakout
H3 5708 Go Short
H2 5704
H1 5700
L1 5693
L2 5689
L3 5685 Go Long
L4 5673 Short Breakout
L5 5663 Trgt 1
L6 5653 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 24-01-11 & Next Week Levels
Nifty Spot Levels for 24-01-11
R3 5761
R2 5739
R1 5718
AVG 5696
S1 5675
S2 5653
S3 5632
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 24-01-11
R3 5775
R2 5746
R1 5723
AVG 5694
S1 5671
S2 5642
S3 5619
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 07 -01-11
R3 11144
R2 11036
R1 10966
AVG 10858
S1 10788
S2 10680
S3 10610
Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (24 Jan to 28 Jan 2011)
R3 5879
R2 5813
R1 5755
AVG 5689
S1 5631
S2 5565
Pull Back rally is Confirm
Weekly Analysis- 24-01-2011 to 28-01-2011
It is the character of bull rallies that they are tend to test 200-Day EMA in intermediate term corrections and if primary up trend is continued then reverse to rally after some consolidation near it. AsJan 2011 fall was on the back of serial negative news blast without intraday genuine selling patterns and Indian markets tested 200-Day EMA(today at 5650) and after 5 sessions hovering near about closed above it last Friday therefore Long term trend is still up, Intermediate term and short term trends are down.
Previous week and last Friday candle is Doji which means uncertainity in markets but intraday patterns of last Friday and last 5 sessions is clearly suggesting consolidations. Although Weekly and Daily charts are not signalling any side moves but intraday charts are confirming consolidations therefore rally will be seen in the coming week. Consolidation developd at lower levels after every fall and it is shown in following last week intraday chat ;-
1-Genuine Intraday Consolidation Patterns in Last 5 Days chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
10 Days intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns:-
1- Rounding bottom support.
2- Double bottom support at 5630
3- Falling channel break out at 10 days intraday chart and whole day trading above it last Friday.
2-10 Days Intraday Consolidation Patterns chart:-
Wave 3 is on and corrected according to its nature. As negative news flow was strong therefore down moves were sharp and 200-Day EMA tested and Nifty hovered around it last week before weekly closing above it. This fact should also be kept in mind that Nifty tested 200-Day EMA in May 2010 before 1553 Points Rally and until nifty will not sustain below it till then any type od down move will not be considered. Falling Channel range bound moves in Last 4 months and after testing lower line of channel Nifty has to sustain below it also for any down move confirmations but support seen here in whole last week therefore upmove within on going channel will be seen first.
3- Wave3 Testing & Sustaining above 200-Day EMA:-
Firstly vertical falling channel formation in Jan 2011 and after that narrow range trading seen within 5630-5745 in last week. Nifty got strong support at 5630 and good consolidation range is 5630-5700. Jan 2011 Falling vertical Channel broken out last Friday when Nifty traded whole day above it with intraday consolidation patterns within 5680-5715.
4- Jan 2011 Correction and last 6 sessions Consolidation CDhart:-
Coonclusions
Short term and Intermediate term trends are down but long term up trend is intact after Jan 2011 1st half cracking down. Nifty got strong support at 5630 and last week good consolidation seen within 5630-5700. 200-Day EMA is today at 5650 and consolidation seen its near about therefore long term up trend is safe. As good support and consolidation in last week and Jan 2011 Falling vertical Channel broken out last Friday when Nifty traded whole day above it with intraday consolidation patterns within 5680-5715 therefore;-
"Fistly rally expected in the begining of coming week"
As intermediate term correction completion signals in last week therefore;-
"Strong Pull Back rally will be seen"
As good consolidations at lower levels therefore:-
"Whatsoever may be RBI credit policy on 25th Jan 2011 but rally will be seen after its declaration"
Deposits grow 14.5 pc; credit offtake up 20.4 pc in Q1: RBI
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CNBC-TV18 Poll: RBI may hike repo, reverse repo by 25 bps
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