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Nifty(Spot)-Trading Strategy for 24-01-2011








Nifty(Spot)-Trading Strategy for 24-01-2011

H6 5740 Trgt 2
H5 5730 Trgt 1
H4 5720 Long breakout
H3 5708 Go Short
H2 5704
H1 5700

L1 5693
L2 5689
L3 5685 Go Long
L4 5673 Short Breakout
L5 5663 Trgt 1
L6 5653 Trgt 2
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Trading Levels for 24-01-11 & Next Week Levels






Nifty Spot Levels for 24-01-11

R3 5761
R2 5739
R1 5718
AVG 5696
S1 5675
S2 5653
S3 5632

Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 24-01-11

R3 5775
R2 5746
R1 5723
AVG 5694
S1 5671
S2 5642
S3 5619

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 07 -01-11

R3 11144
R2 11036
R1 10966
AVG 10858
S1 10788
S2 10680
S3 10610

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (24 Jan to 28 Jan 2011)

R3 5879
R2 5813
R1 5755
AVG 5689
S1 5631
S2 5565
Posted by at

Pull Back rally is Confirm


Weekly Analysis- 24-01-2011 to 28-01-2011

It is the character of bull rallies that they are tend to test 200-Day EMA in intermediate term corrections and if primary up trend is continued then reverse  to rally after some consolidation near it. AsJan 2011 fall was on the back of serial negative news blast without intraday genuine selling patterns and Indian markets tested 200-Day EMA(today at 5650) and after 5 sessions hovering near about closed above it last Friday therefore Long term trend is still up, Intermediate term and short term trends are down.

Previous week and last Friday candle is Doji which means uncertainity in markets but intraday patterns of last Friday and last 5 sessions is clearly suggesting consolidations. Although Weekly and Daily charts are not signalling any side moves but intraday charts are confirming consolidations therefore rally will be seen in the coming week. Consolidation developd at lower levels after every fall and it is shown in following last week intraday chat     ;-

1-Genuine Intraday Consolidation Patterns in Last 5 Days chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

10 Days intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns:-

1- Rounding bottom support.
2- Double bottom support at 5630
3- Falling channel break out at 10 days intraday chart and whole day trading above it last Friday.

2-10 Days Intraday Consolidation Patterns chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Wave 3 is on and corrected according to its nature. As negative news flow was strong therefore down moves were sharp and 200-Day EMA tested and Nifty hovered around it last week before weekly closing above it. This fact should also be kept in mind that Nifty tested 200-Day EMA in May 2010 before 1553 Points Rally and until nifty will not sustain below it till then any type od down move will not be considered. Falling Channel range bound moves in Last 4 months and after testing lower line of channel Nifty has to sustain below it also for any down move confirmations but support seen here in whole last week therefore upmove within on going channel will be seen first.

3- Wave3 Testing & Sustaining above 200-Day EMA:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Firstly vertical falling channel formation in Jan 2011 and after that narrow range trading seen within 5630-5745 in last week. Nifty got strong support at 5630 and good consolidation range is 5630-5700. Jan 2011 Falling vertical Channel broken out last Friday when Nifty traded whole day above it with intraday consolidation patterns within 5680-5715.

4- Jan 2011 Correction and last 6 sessions Consolidation CDhart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Coonclusions

Short term and Intermediate term trends are down but long term up trend is intact after Jan 2011 1st half cracking down. Nifty got strong support at 5630 and last week good consolidation seen within 5630-5700. 200-Day EMA is today at 5650 and consolidation seen its near about therefore long term up trend is safe. As good support and consolidation in last week and Jan 2011 Falling vertical Channel broken out last Friday when Nifty traded whole day above it with intraday consolidation patterns within 5680-5715 therefore;-

"Fistly rally expected in the begining of coming week"

As intermediate term correction completion signals in last week therefore;-

"Strong Pull Back rally will be seen"

As good consolidations at lower levels therefore:-

"Whatsoever may be RBI credit policy on 25th Jan 2011 but rally will be seen after its declaration" 

Posted by at

Deposits grow 14.5 pc; credit offtake up 20.4 pc in Q1: RBI

Just click on above heading for detailed news
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CNBC-TV18 Poll: RBI may hike repo, reverse repo by 25 bps



Just click on above heading for detailed news
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SBI Q3 net profit up 14% at Rs 2828 cr

Just click on above heading for detailed news
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RIL Q3 net profit up 28.14% at Rs 5136 cr

Just click on above heading for detailed news
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ITC Q3 net jumps 21% to 1.4k cr

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FM talks of inflation, fiscal responsibility at FSDC meet

Just click on above heading for detailed news
Posted by at

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 21-01-2011-TRADE


NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5674-TGT-5774-CMP-5696
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-BTST)-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE
FOR SL-5674-TGT-5774 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5696
Posted by at

Mid-session outlook(21-01-2011)


As told for profit booking immediately after opening today,same is seen and Nifty could not sustained at higher levels and slipped. Selling confirmation between 5695-5714 and this range is resistance also. As good support at lower level also therefore expected that Nifty will hover today between 5650-5695 and prepare for next moves. Good buying at lower levels and good selling also higher level today therefore both side moves are capped and it will be better to wait for break out of 5650-5695.
Posted by at

Post-open outlook(21-01-2011)


Profit booking signals since morning therefore view is cautious today.

Posted by at

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 20-01-2011-COVERING


NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 20-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5700(WE SHALL BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)
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Trading Strategy for Nifty(Jan Fut)-21-01-2011









H6 5830 Trgt 2
H5 5804 Trgt 1
H4 5779 Long breakout
H3 5748 Go Short
H2 5738
H1 5728

L1 5707
L2 5697
L3 5687 Go Long
L4 5656 Short Breakout
L5 5631 Trgt 1
L6 5605 Trgt 2

Posted by at

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 20-01-2011-COVERING


NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 20-01-2011)-GLOBAL MARKETS WEAK TODAY MORNING BUT HOLD AND JUST WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE
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Trading Levels for 21-01-11







Nifty Spot Levels for 21-01-11

R3 5561
R2 5598
R1 5655
AVG 5692
S1 5749
S2 5786.
S3 5843

Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 21-01-11

R3 5540
R2 5586
R1 5652
AVG 5698
S1 5764
S2 5810
S3 5876

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 21-01-11

R3 11403
R2 11156
R1 10990
AVG 10743
S1 10577
S2 10330
S3 10164
Posted by at

Bull has taken charge


Pre-Open Market Outlook(21-01-2011)

As Weekly,EOD and intraday charts are not suggesting bearish markets therefore no weakness projections were posted even yesterday when all the global markets were in deep Red but on the contrary bullish indications were given in following words:-

1- Pre-open outlook- View is bullish for the reasons expressed in last 3 days outlooks
2- Post-open outlook(10:42 am)- Indian markets out performing global markets today

 Nifty traded most of the time within 5630-5745 in last 4 sessions snd this range break out will decide survival of 200 Day EMA and long term trend of Indian markets therefore intraday positions within this range of last 5 sessions shown in following intraday chart:-

1- 5 days intraday chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

As base formation seen at lower levels therefore finally upside break out of last 4 days range expected as well as long term up trend will also survive and also expected that strong rally will be seen after mentioned range break out and completion on intermediate term correction.

Opening will depend on global cues and expected that Nifty will sustain above 5700 finally and Green closing will be seen today.
Posted by at

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 20-01-2011-TRADE


NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-BTST)SL-5674-TGT-5774-CMP-5718

NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-BTST)-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5674-TGT-5774 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5718
Posted by at

Post-open outlook(20-01-2011)

The range of 5640-5665 was given in Pre-open outlook-2 today for confirmation of next move in completely depressed sentiment. Nifty traded first one and half hour within this range and crossed 5665 without dipping below 5640. Indian markets out performing global markets today and it seems today that Indian markets got support within mentioned range. Sustaining above 5665 will be watched first for next immediate move confirmation as well as long term trend confirmations.
Posted by at

Pre-open outlook(20-01-2011)

All the global markets are crashed therefore sentiment is completely depressed today morning and retesting of 200-day EMA(5649) is possible today. 5640-5665 is next strong support range and sustaining below 5640 will mean high risk of long term trend turning down.

Expected that Nifty will trade first near 5640-5665 after weak opening today and sustaining beyond will be watched next move confirmations.
Posted by at

Pre-Open Market Outlook(20-01-2011)

Sentiment heated due to Union Cabinet reshuffle news therefore voltality seen after profit booking at higher levels and buyinng at lower levels within 5665-5690 yesterday. Pull back rally started from Monday and Nifty was volatile after intraday profit booking and buying within 5665-5745 yesterday. As support seen at lower levels also therefore Monday begun pull back rally is still alive and yesterday range break out will be next move confirmation.

Although Indian markets closed in Red yesterday and sentiment is also depressed but following points will also be kept in mind for deciding next trend:-

1- Bullish Wave-3 is on.
2- Long term trend is still up.
3- 2011 down moves are the result of last week non-stop negative news and not the result of genuine selling.

Support and Correction completion signals seen on Previous Monday and Tuesday but yesterday patterns are showing mixed formations therefore next moves will be decided from follow up moves of today. I mean to say that if follow up selling develops today then minimum 200-Day EMA retesting will be seen and today follow up buying will mean continuation of Monday started rally.

Today trading range will be 5665-5745 and expected that Nifty will prepare first within this range for next moves. Let market prepare then final conclusions will be drawn after today intraday charts analysis.

View is bullish for the reasons expressed in last 3 days outlooks.
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