Pre-Open Market Outlook(16-12-2010)

Down moves were expected yesterday therefore such moves were projected and seen also but intraday charts showed consolidations therefore following lines were told before 02:00 pm yesterday:-

1- intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today
2- intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today

As intraday patterns showed consolidation within 5870-5940 yesterday therefore sustaining below is must for any down move confirmation and if Nifty does not sustain below 5870 and cross 5940 then fresh strong up moves will be seen. Selling in previous sessions and buying yesterday are suggesting to get confirmations from break out of 5870-5940.

Last 14 sessions EOD chart is showing symmetrical triangle and it is continuation pattern. Break out of this pattern should be watched for next strong and decisive move confirmations.

1- Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation Pattern) Chart:-

Following news will also be crucial therefore should be kept in mind.

1- Credit policy today and any type of rates hike not expected. Banks facing liquidity problem and CRR cut can not be ruled out today after decline of inflation and encouraging IIP,GDP data.

2- DMK may withdraw support after CBI raids but in that situation there will be no danger to Union Govt because required 9 MPs support will be easily managed(AIADMK & SP) by Congress and no impact on Govt stability will be seen. As Stock markets moves on sentiments therefore in this situation panic selling and bottom possibility can not be ruled out therefore caution required. If supports withdrawl news comes during trading hours then it may cause panic therefore trading long positions should be held with stop loss in system. It is also very much expected that market will bounce back after any panic because Govt will survive finally and supports arrangements would have been done before CBI raids. As it may happen therefore should be kept in mind.

Mixed intraday formations in last 2 sessions and above mentioned news flow will also influence market today therefore today intraday formations will tell first for preperation of next moves and sustaing beyond after break out(5870-5940) will give next moves confirmations. Above shown Symmetrical Triangle break out will confirm next big move.

Today may be high volatile day therefore cautious approach required.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(15-12-2010)

Most Asian markets closed flat to negative,European markets also opened in Red today and Indian markets are also trading weak within 5880-5940. Although Indian market is weak since morning today but intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today therefore down movw confirmation point is dipping below 5880. As intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today therefore moving above 5940 will be fresh up move confirmation.

I posted my bearish view in Pre-Open Outlook for today and Indian markets are trading in Red since opening today but intraday patterns are suggesting above mentioned conclusions therefore final view will be formed according to break out of today trading range(5880-5940) because intraday trading patterns did not showed follow up selling today.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(15-12-2010)

Selling seen today between 5930-5940 also.

Mid-Session Outlook(15-12-2010)

Minor intraday support seen between 5900-5915.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-12-2010)

Decline in inflations triggered up move and positive markets seen yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations and intraday patterns suggesting distribution also. Next resistance range is 5970-6015 and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then decisive rally will not be seen.

Nifty rallied 233 points in last 3 sessions with intraday selling formations and expected that Nifty will not sustain above 6015 in on going rally despite closing near day's high yesterday. Opening will depend on global cues today but finally down moves toward last 3 sessions lows expected in the coming sessions and fresh down moves will be seen either from today or tomorrow.

Trading Levels for 15-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6033
R2 5995
R1 5967
AVG 5929
S1 5905
S2 5865
S3 5838

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6049
R2 6008
R1 5985
AVG 5945
S1 5922
S2 5880
S3 5857

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 11915
R2 11796
R1 11707
AVG 11589
S1 11505
S2 11385
S3 11296

Mid-Session Outlook(14-12-2010)

Inflation for Nov 2010 decreased from 8.58 to 7.48(MoM) and triggered up move in Indian markets through breaking out 5914 by force. Testing of next resistance range(5970-6015) is expected now and  closing above 5914 is must tody because break out is on the back of good news.

Post-Open Outlook(14-12-2010)

Positive opening and then slipping to 5900 seen in early trades. Nifty trading above 5900 since opening today and sustaining above or below it will be first indication of next move.

Rising Wedge(Selling Pattern) within 5874-5914 seen in last 1 hour yesterday and breaking down of this range will be first strong indication of next move.

Trading Levels for 14-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 14-12-10

R3 6068
R2 5991
R1 5947
AVG 5872
S1 5830
S2 5755
S3 5714

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 14-12-10

R3 6199
R2 6092
R1 6011
AVG 5904
S1 5823
S2 5716
S3 5635

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 14-12-10

R3 11982
R2 11791
R1 11675
AVG 11484
S1 11368
S2 11177
S3 11061

Pre-Open Market Outlook(14-12-2010)

As Indian markets were not prepared for any side moves therefore following lines wete told in Weekly:-

Indian markets will first prepare for next moves within 5800-5900 and then next moves will be seen according to above mentioned targets. Indian markets will first prepare within mentioned range and then next moves will be understood:-

1- Firstly from intraday trading patterns.
2- Secondly after breaking out of 5800-5900.

Nifty traded within 5796-5914 yesterday but intraday moves witnessed news based(Korean war) huge voltality in following manner:-

1- Nifty slipped 80 points in just 16 minutes after Korean war news in business news channels.
2- Retail traders panic selling seen between 5800-5830 and after that Nifty surged 40 points within 12 minutes.
3- 40 points upmove with Rising Wedge(Selling Pattern) within 5874-5914 seen in last 1 hour.

Although Nifty closed at the top of the day but yesterday trading patterns are showing mixed signals because consolidation patters within 5800-5830 and distribution patterns within 5874-5914. Nifty has to sustain above 5914 finally for decisive upmoves and sustaining below 5800 will mean sharp declines. Break out implications of 5800-5900 has already been discussed in weekly of this week.

As Indian markets closed at the top of the day therefore Firstly sustaining above 5900 will be watched. Sustaining above 5900 will mean move toward next resistance 5970-6015. Sustaining below 5900 will mean testing possibility of next support range(5800-5830).

Let intraday moves develop then conclusions and next expected moves will be posted in Mid-Session Outlooks.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(13-12-2010)

Sharp declines seen after korean war news on business news channels and that results retail traders panic selling between 5800-5830. 5800 should be watched for down move confirmations,sustaining below it will mean sharp dclines.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(13-12-2010)

Intraday charts showing weakness today. 5800 should be watched for down move confirmations,sustaining below it will mean sharp dclines.

Mid-Session Outlook(13-12-2010)

Intraday charts showing weakness today.

SEBI probe into rigging will clean up mkt: Bhave

Securities & Exchange Board of India chairman CB Bhave said the investigation into incidents of price-rigging carried out by his agency and investigations by other government departments are cleaning up the rot in the market that would protect investors. "Investors should be happy that the market is getting cleaned up," Bhave said. "There is no need for investors to be nervous. Investors should be happy that wrong-doers are caught."

Investor confidence in markets has been ruffled in the past few weeks with the Central Bureau of Investigation arresting some bank officials on charges of corruption, including the LIC Housing Finance chief executive. SEBI had charged promoters and brokers of rigging stock prices.

The Intelligence Bureau had reportedly passed on information to the market regulator about some brokers' involvement in price manipulation in specific stocks.

"We are on the job of investigation... all the time coordinating with other government agencies," said Bhave without getting into the specifics of the operation.

Indian shares which have fallen 7% since its recent peak, rose on Friday. The 30-share BSE Sensex, rose 266.53 points, or 1.39%, to 19,508.89.

Reports of widening investigation by several agencies dragged down many shares such as that of KS Oils , Ruchi Soya Industries and Karuturi Global during the week.

Prior to that, SEBI penalised promoters of companies such as Murli Industries , Welspun and real estate developer Ackruti City for colluding with stock broker Sanjay Dangi to manipulate share prices.

This was preceded by the arrest of seven officials from the Bank of India , Punjab National Bank and the chief executive of Money Matters, an intermediary in the loans market, for corruption. Some of them are out on bail.

Source:-http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/regulation/SEBI-probe-into-rigging-will-clean-up-mkt-Bhave/articleshow/7079996.cms

Trading Levels for 13-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 13-12-10

R3 7385
R2 6625
R1 6243
AVG 5481
S1 5098
S2 4337
S3 3950

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 13-12-10

R3 7403
R2 6646
R1 6260
AVG 5505
S1 5120
S2 4367
S3 3981

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 13-12-10

R3 12189
R2 11865
R1 11681
AVG 11362
S1 11177
S2 10857
S3 10676

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (13 Dec to 17 Dec 2010)

R3 7724
R2 6899
R1 6375
AVG 5549
S1 5028
S2 4204
S3 3680

Weekly Analysis- 13-12-2010 to 17-12-2010

Long term trend is up. Intermediate term and short term trends are down in on going correction. Last 2 sessions intraday moves were gripped by the fear phycology of IB report on stock market scams. Report not disclosed and only SEBI chief statement came out that investors should not worry.

Indian markets recovered from day's lows on the back of good double digit IIP data last Friday after forming higher bottom support at rising trend line.

1-Higher Bottom Support at Rising Trend Line Chart-

As this up move was on the back of good IIP data therefore it may be short covering rally also and confirmations required. Nifty traded last 5 hours within 5800-5850 last Friday with distribution signals and 5850-5900 is next resistance. Market has to undergo a complete process for begining of rally,let it happen then up move possibilities will be considered.  Until Nifty will not sustain above 5900 till then any sustained rally will not be seen.

Indian markts retraced after good selling at higher levels and 26-11-2010 started pull back also could not cross resistance at 6015 as well as slipped sharply in last week after 4 days narrow range moves. As correction is on therefore following possibilities will be kept in mind:-

1- Intermediate term trend is down in on going correction and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5564)
2- ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-

A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)

2-ABC correction showing daily Chart:-

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

Rally terminated at 6339 and will correct whole rally which started from 5349 on 31-08-2010. On going 990 points rally will correct according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

13.0%- 6210
23.6%- 6105
27.0%- 6071
38.2%- 5960
50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461

3-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Chart-

Conclusions

Last 2 sessions down and up moves were based on news. Markets tanked down after announcement of Home ministery probe order on IB report leakage last Thursday and surged after good IIP data last Friday. These 2 days news based intraday moves were within 4735-4870 and lot of sentiments based high activities seen within this range. Next moves confirmations required in the begining of week:-

1- 5850-5900 is next resistance range and fresh consolidation requires for sustaining above 5900 and if Indian markets consolidate in the begining of week and Nifty sustains above 5900 then only next upmove will be considered. It should be kept in mind that 6015 is strong reistance decisive rally will be confirmed after sustaining above it only.

2- As last Friday surge was good IIP data fuelled therefore short covering possibility within last 5 hours trading range( 5800-5850)of last Friday can not be ruled out and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong indication of next moves. If Nifty finally sustains below 5800 then above mentioned ABC correction acoording to mentioned fibonacci retracement levels will be seen.

Indian markets will first prepare for next moves within 5800-5900 and then next moves will be seen according to above mentioned targets. Indian markets will first prepare within mentioned range and then next moves will be understood:-

1- Firstly from intraday trading patterns.
2- Secondly after breaking out of 5800-5900.

As pull back rally fused in last week after 4 days narrow range moves near 6000 and that complete consolidations requires for any up moves which has not started yet as well as selling patterns in Indices and many pivotal stocks therefore finally down moves below 5800 expected in the coming week but precautionally confirmations will also be taken from above mentions ways.

Mid-Session Outlook(10-12-2010)

Sentiment was completely depressed therefore recovery seen for change of sentiment on the back of improved IIP data. Confusion in market on IB report and implications of its leakages. Let it disclose and according to that its seariousness will be known till then confusion only. Voltality remains high in selling markets and today 1% rise may be its part also. 5850-5900 is next resistance and until that will not clear till then any type of next up move will not be considered.

Correction is on and today up moves are only sentiment based therefore any decisive up move will be considered only after confirmations.

Trading Levels for 10-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 10-12-10

R3 6093
R2 6015
R1 5890
AVG 5817
S1 5695
S2 5615
S3 5491

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10

R3 6075
R2 6008
R1 5896
AVG 5825
S1 5711
S2 5642
S3 5525

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10

R3 12014
R2 11813
R1 11496
AVG 11300
S1 10985
S2 10789
S3 10472

Pre-Open Market Outlook(10-12-2010)

Following line was told in last conclusive paragraph for yesterday:-

"Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow"

Down move was seen and Nifty cloed 137 points down as well as yesterday lowest was at 4742.

4 days narrow range move after pull back rally was the key and sustaining below it was confirmation of fresh down move toward the low of correction and that was seen yesterday.

ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-

A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)

ABC correction showing daily Chart:-

Long term trend is up. Short and intermediate term trends are down. Intermediate term trend is confirm down and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5561)

I told following lines yesterday:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."

Same lines repeating today also:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."

EOD charts are showing weak structure and complete selling patterns in intraday charts also therefore further down moves possibility can not be ruled out.

Today market moves will depend on on Govt clarification on IB report leakage but finally down moves will be seen. As per my view 200 Day EMA will be next trend decider and lot of process has to be completed for fresh rally. Complete consolidation requires for any type of upmoves and until that will not complete till then any type of rally should not be expected.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(09-12-2010)

Down move confirmation for today also after breaking 5877.

India's food inflation rate rises slightly to 8.69%

India's food inflation rate rose slightly to 8.69 for the week ended November 27 from 8.60 in the previous week, an official statement said here today, quoting provisional data.

The statement showed that the inflation rate for fuel remained unchanged from the previous week's level 9.99 per cent in the week ended November 27.