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Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-11-2010)

US futures trading 50 points up but Asian markets are mixed today morning. Indian markets will react on 2G Spectrum issue in the coming couple of sessions and will be volatile also. It will also be decided in the coming couple of sessions that last Friday 5932 broken down was due to PM resignation rumour or genuine breaking down.

Settling down of 2G Spectrum issue and sustainability beyond 5932 will decide next Indian markets. All the levels and trend deciding factors have already been discussed in weekly.

Intermediate Term Correction of 990 Points Rally

Weekly Analysis- 22-11-2010 to 26-11-2010

Following lines were told in the last conclusive paragraph of last week weekly:-

"Only minor pull back rally possibility in the begining of week otherewise finally testing 5932 and breaking down of 5932 as well as intermediate term trend turning downward possibility is high in the coming week"

Nifty broken down 5932 "by force" last Friday and it will be clear from following break out moves timings:-

"Nifty was trading '5970 at 02:25 pm and slipped to 5864 at 03:12 pm'. Nifty 'lost 106 points in 47 mintes in which 65 points down was in 14 only minutes'" Nifty not only broke 5932 by force but also 'closed 42 points below it at 5890'.

On going up move started on 31-08-2010 from 5349 which terminated on Muhurat trading day at 6339 after gaining 990 points. Nifty traded 42 sessions within 5932-6339 and got 3 times support near 5932 within this move. 42 sessions upmove neutralised last Friday after following distribution patterns:-

1- Rounding Top Formation
2- Intraday Charts selling patterns.
3- Down move in Falling channel.
4- All rising trend lines broken down

1-Technical Position Daily Chart-


Four Supports Broken in a day by Force on Closing Basis on 19-11-2010 and Nifty closed 69 down from form previous 42 sessions lowest closing:-

2-Nifty Line Chart-

Supports Ranges:-

Next Supports Ranges of 990 Points Rally(5349-6339) are as follows:-
                                      
1- 5835-5865
2- 5780-5805                                      
3- 5580-5640
4- 5475-5500
5- 5420-5445
6- 5350-5370

3 Next Supports Ranges Chart-

Resistances Ranges:-

Good selling started from Muhurat session and daily selling seen. Following resistance Ranges shown in Last 10 Days intraday charts;-

1- 5950-6015
2- 6080-6120
3- 6180-6195
4- 6250-6320

4-Resistances in intraday Chart-

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

Rally terminated at 6339 and will correct whole rally which started from 5349 on 31-08-2010. On going 990 points rally will correct according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

13.0%- 6210
23.6%- 6105
27.0%- 6071
38.2%- 5960
50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461

5-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Chart-

Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis:-

Almost "Marubozu Candle" formation in last week after "Engulfing Bearish" Candle in the previous week. 2nd Long Red weekly candle clearly confirming weakness.

1-Weekly Averages- Short term Weekly averages are above longer term averages.5-week,21-week EMA are flat while ,34-week,55-week EMA heading toward upward direction. Nifty moved below 5-week EMA and confirming weakness.

2-Weekly Bollinger Band- Complete 7 weeks distribution pattern near the upper band and slipping toward Middle Band confirming weakness and more down moves possibilities also.

3-Weekly MACD- MACD line is marginally above Average line in positive zone and MACD line is sliding also. MACD has not downward intersected Average line and divergence is only 6.431 as well as both lines are in kissing positions therefore MACD has to be watched because it will give next big move confirmations. MACD downward intersection of Average line will mean big down move confirmation and moving up without intersection will be up move confirmation after completion of correction.

4-Weekly ROC- Sliding in positive zone and little above equilibrium line therefore showing weakness signals.

5-Weekly RSI- Sliding in positive zone and little above equilibrium line therefore showing weakness signals.

6-Weekly Slow Stochastic- Both lines are at equilibrium line after slipping from overbought zone therefore showing weakness. As it is used to test oversold zone after slipping from overbought area therefore showing some more down moves possibility.

7-Weekly William %R- Moving down above equilibrium line after slipping from overbought zone therefore showing weakness. As it is used to test oversold zone after slipping from overbought area therefore showing some more down moves possibility.

6- weekly Indicators and Averages chart-

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis:-

1-Averages- Nifty is above 55-Day,200-Day EMA and below 8-Day,21-Day EMA. 8-Day intersected downward 21-Day EMA. Nifty tested 55-Day EMA and closed below it last Friday and sutainability above or below 55-Day EMA will give next good move confirmations.

2-Bollinger Band- is at lower band after forming complete selling patterns at upper band. As at lower band therefore indicating minor up moves possibilities.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding ,MACD at equilibrium line while Average line is above equilibrium line. Divergence increased in both lines therefore indicating small upmoves.

4-ROC- Entered into oversold zone therefore indicating small up move possibility. As no divergence therefore no up move confirmation.

5-RSI- Sliding above oversold zone therefore indicating some more down move possibility.

6-Slow Stochastic- Both lines slipped into oversold zone therefore indicating very short term upmoves possibility.

7-William %R- Slipped into oversold zone therefore indicating very short term upmove possibility.

7- Daily Indicators and Averages chart-

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together):- 

Two Intermediate term correction signals in last week:-

1- Indian markets retraced after complete sellng patterns at higher levels and closed below 55-Day EMA(5980).
2- Nifty closed below intermediate term bottom(5932)

Nifty sustaining below 5932 in coming week will be confirmaton of and intermediate term down trend and it has to be received because last session sharp decline may be result of PM resigning possibility rumours also and regarding it some reports were seen on Business Channels also.

As good selling patterns at higher levels in Indices and many pivotal stocks `therefore I was non stop telling for the possibility of breaking down of 5932 and it happened, Nifty sustaning below it will mean Internediate term correction confirmation. Then next possibilities will be:-

1- Down move from 3 weeks to 3 months from the begining of move.
2- 200 Day EMA testing possibility which is today at 5510.

Weekly indicators are confirming down move while daily indicators indicating small up moves because very short term indicators moved into oversold area which may be seen in the begining of week. If Nifty sustains below 5932 in the begining of week then it will be more down confirmation and Nifty sustaining above 1st resistance range(5950-6015) will be correction completion confirmation.

As good selling patterns at higher levels in Indices and many pivitas stocks therefore expected that Correction of 990 Points Rally will be seen according to above mentioned Fibonacci Retracement Levels. Also expected that Nifty will finally sustain below 5932 after fresh selling in the coming week and weekly closing will be Red. Complete consolidations requires for any up move and until that will not be seen till then upmoves will not be considered. At present sustaining above 6015 is upmove confirmation point.

6 Next Supports Ranges


                                 6 Next Supports Ranges:-
                                          1- 5835-5865
                                          2- 5780-5805
                                          3- 5580-5640
                                          4- 5475-5500
                                          5- 5420-5445
                                          6- 5350-5370

Intermediate Term Trend Down

4 Supports Broken in a day by Force on 
Closing Basis on 19-11-2010

4 Resistance Ranges in Last 10 Days


4 Resistance Ranges in Last 10 Days
1- 5950-6015
2- 6080-6120
3- 6180-6195
4- 6250-6320

NIFTY-NOV F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 19-11-2010-TRADE

NIFTY-SHORT-NOV FUTURE AND OPTIONS(PUT-BUY) AT MARKET RATE- SL AND TGT WILL BE GIVEN ON MONDAY-CMP-5898

Post-Open Outlook-3(19-11-2010)

Selling seen at higher levels today.

Post-Open Outlook-2(19-11-2010)

All the Asian markets recovered and more than 2/3% sharp surge seen in Hangseng and China markets. Indian markets also recovered from lower levels but confirmations required from range break out(5932-6015).

It has also been observed from last 1 hour move that Indian markets underperformed Asian markets because less recovery in percentage terms seen in Indian markets. At present Indian market reacting Asian markets moves only and let more indications come then final conclusions will be drawn and next moves confirmation range is 5932-6015.

Post-Open Outlook(19-11-2010)

All the Asian markets slipped from higher levels. Hangseng and China are more than 1% down therefore sentiment weakened and Indian markets down as well as trading at lower levels of yesterday last 4 hours range(5950-6015). Breaking below 5950 and sustaining below 5932 will be deeper correction confirmation.

Although upmoves were expected after warching consolidations within last 4 hours range yesterday but Asain markets led weakness is being seen in Indian markets today therefore mentioned levels should be watched for next down move confirmations also.

Pre-Open Market Outlook-2(19-11-2010)

US and European markets closed with good gains yesterday but Asian markets are not responding those gains and trading mixed today therefore sentiment is quiet today morning. Flat opening and firstly trading within 6090-6150 expected in changed sentiments. Next immediate move confirmation range is yesterday last 4 hours range(5950-6015). As consolidation signals were seen within this range yesterday therefore up moves from this range expected and fresh selling patterns required today to break it down.

As Asian markets are mixed therefore 6090-6150 will be next move confirmation range and intraday patterns within this range will give next move confirmations today. As yesterday last 4 hours consolidation patterns therefore up moves expected at this moment.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(19-11-2010)

Nifty tested strong support 5932 amid violent voltality and recovered as well as closed in Green yesterday. Nifty traded last 4 hours today within 5950-6015 yesterday and Nifty traded within 5975-6010 last tuesday. 8 hours trading range(5950-6015) is sufficient to give first strong indication to next moves therefore this range break out should be used for next move confirmations.

Last 8 hours trading range(5950-6015) is indicating consolidations and expected that Nifty will sustain above it today. 5932-6015 is now strong support range,Good selling patterns requires to break this range.

Nest resistance ranges are as follows:-

1- 6080-6120(Minor Resistance)
2- 6180-6195(Minor Resistance)
3- 6250-6320(Strong Resistance)

Indian markets moved into range bound mode and will first prepare within 6015-6250 for next moves. Break out and sustaining beyond 5932-6339 will give following next moves confirmations:-

1- Sustaing below 5932 will mean deeper correction
2- Sustaing above 6339 will mean completion of short term correction in range bound mode.

Positive opening and firstly trading wthin 6020-6080 expected.Green closing after whole day positive zone trading expected and sustaining above 6120 will give next good upmove confirmations.

Until Nifty does not sustain beyond mentioned ranges till then only range bound market should be expected trading targets should be within range.

Mid-Session Outlook-4(18-11-2010)

Indian markets firstly reacted last 2 days global markets steep falls and and after that reacted following sharp surge in global markets:-

1- Dow's futures trading currently trading 100 points up
2- Most Asian markets closed with good gains
3- European markets are also trading more than 1% positive

No final conclusion can be drawn from such Global sentimets led Indian markets huge voltality because technical positions reverses sharply during these big movements. It will be better to wait for markets settling down and next trend confirmations should be drawn from Nifty sustaining beyond 5932-6010.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(18-11-2010)

Huge intraday voltality. Market broke 5932 by force and recovered with same speed also. Let Nifty sustain above or below 5932 then final conclusions should be drawn.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(18-11-2010)

5932 Broken down by force. Although sustainability is must for confirmations but today down move force is giving almost confirmation of intermediate term trend turning downward. Intermediate term turning down means down trend from 3 weeks to 3 months. As good selling at higher levels therefore I was non stop telling for correction and 5932 testing possibility for the last 1 month. As 5932 broken by force today and if sustains below it then testing possibility of 200-Day EMA(today near 5500) testing possibility can not be ruled out. I shall update regularly but keep mentioned possibilities in mind.

Mid-Session Outlook(18-11-2010)

Very short term up move expected and up move fused after little up moves. 5932 should be watched for intermediate term trend confirmations.

Post-Open Outlook(18-11-2010)

Following lines were told in crashing like sentiments during last 2 days not today:-

1- People expectecting blood bath and immediate crash in Indian markets. I would like to add here that market never crash in such bearish sentiments but recover also.
2- minor pull back rally possibility is been seen after finding mixed trading signals within 5975-6010.
3-last 4 hours narrow movewithin 5975-6010.Positions are mixed and will be better to get confirmations from break out from the range.

Minor pull back is being seen and Nifty sustaining above 6010 today will be consolidation and very short term up move confirmation and mentioned up move expected also.

Only Watch 5932 in Most Bearish Sentiments

People expectecting blood bath and immediate crash in Indian markets. I would like to add here that market never crash in such bearish sentiments but recover also. Again repeating for watching and getting confirmations from sustaining below 5932.

Let confirmations come then I shall post my conclusions from intraday charts analysis in Mid-Session Outlooks.

Watch 5932 for Confirmations

Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-11-2010)

Nifty tested crucial suppoort range 5932-6100 and also closed within this range as well as traded last 4 hours with mixed trading signals within 5975-6010 last tuesday. Sentiment is most bearish and firstly trading below 5975 possibility can not be ruled out but sustaining below it is must for next immediate down move confirmations because minor pull back rally possibility is been seen after finding mixed trading signals within 5975-6010. Correction is continued,sentiment is depressed and if Nifty sustainins below 5975 then testing of 5932 and lower levels possibility will be high.

Global sentiment is extremely weak and good selling patterns at higher levels in Indices and Pivotal stocks also and 5932 breaking possibility is also high but confirmation through sustaining below 5932 is must because Nifty has already got 3 times support within this range(5930-6000) and intermediate term trend will be down below 5932 as well as testing possibility of 200 Day EMA(today at 5501) will be high. I am repesting heading of my weekly outlook:-

"High Possibility of Intermediate Trend Turning Down & Only Saviour is 5932"

Opening will depend on global sentiment and:-

1- Minor pull back rally possibility will be decided acoording to sustaining above mentioned mixed signals range(5975-6010).
2- Intermediate term down trend will get confirmations through sustaining below 5932.

Big move has to be decided amid most bearish global sentiments and negative news flow therefore final view will be formed according to sustaining and today trading patterns.

Just watch sustainability beyond 5932 and get confirmations for next big moves.

2 Correction possibilities below 5932

On going upmove started on 31-08-2010 from 5349 and reversed from 6339 . Fibonacci retracement levels will be calculated between 5349-6339 after sustaining below 5932 and after getting intermediate term down move confirmations.

Wave 3 started on 13-07-2009 from 3919 toward minimum target at 6359 and market reversed from 6339 without achieving its minimum target. Although Nifty could not achieve target theoritically but shorting of mere 20 points is negligible in 2440 points rally. Sustaining below 5932 will mean nullification of 39 sessions up move and confirmations of heavy selling at higher levels above 6000. If Nifty sustains below 5932 then ABC correction possibility of whole 2440 points will also be considered and fibonacci retracement levels between 3919-6339 will also be kept in mind.

Let market sustain below 5932 then above posibilities of deeper corrections will be under consideration.

Mid-Session Outlook-5(16-11-2010)

last 4 hours narrow movewithin 5975-6010.Positions are mixed and will be better to get confirmations from break out from the range. View is bearish but mixed trading positions are suggesting to get confirmations from break out of mentioned range.

Mid-Session Outlook-4(16-11-2010)

As intraday charts showed selling near 6000 therefore breaking down of 5932 is higher now.