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Trading Levels for 14-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 14-12-10

R3 6068
R2 5991
R1 5947
AVG 5872
S1 5830
S2 5755
S3 5714

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 14-12-10

R3 6199
R2 6092
R1 6011
AVG 5904
S1 5823
S2 5716
S3 5635

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 14-12-10

R3 11982
R2 11791
R1 11675
AVG 11484
S1 11368
S2 11177
S3 11061

Pre-Open Market Outlook(14-12-2010)

As Indian markets were not prepared for any side moves therefore following lines wete told in Weekly:-

Indian markets will first prepare for next moves within 5800-5900 and then next moves will be seen according to above mentioned targets. Indian markets will first prepare within mentioned range and then next moves will be understood:-

1- Firstly from intraday trading patterns.
2- Secondly after breaking out of 5800-5900.

Nifty traded within 5796-5914 yesterday but intraday moves witnessed news based(Korean war) huge voltality in following manner:-

1- Nifty slipped 80 points in just 16 minutes after Korean war news in business news channels.
2- Retail traders panic selling seen between 5800-5830 and after that Nifty surged 40 points within 12 minutes.
3- 40 points upmove with Rising Wedge(Selling Pattern) within 5874-5914 seen in last 1 hour.

Although Nifty closed at the top of the day but yesterday trading patterns are showing mixed signals because consolidation patters within 5800-5830 and distribution patterns within 5874-5914. Nifty has to sustain above 5914 finally for decisive upmoves and sustaining below 5800 will mean sharp declines. Break out implications of 5800-5900 has already been discussed in weekly of this week.

As Indian markets closed at the top of the day therefore Firstly sustaining above 5900 will be watched. Sustaining above 5900 will mean move toward next resistance 5970-6015. Sustaining below 5900 will mean testing possibility of next support range(5800-5830).

Let intraday moves develop then conclusions and next expected moves will be posted in Mid-Session Outlooks.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(13-12-2010)

Sharp declines seen after korean war news on business news channels and that results retail traders panic selling between 5800-5830. 5800 should be watched for down move confirmations,sustaining below it will mean sharp dclines.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(13-12-2010)

Intraday charts showing weakness today. 5800 should be watched for down move confirmations,sustaining below it will mean sharp dclines.

Mid-Session Outlook(13-12-2010)

Intraday charts showing weakness today.

SEBI probe into rigging will clean up mkt: Bhave


Securities & Exchange Board of India chairman CB Bhave said the investigation into incidents of price-rigging carried out by his agency and investigations by other government departments are cleaning up the rot in the market that would protect investors. "Investors should be happy that the market is getting cleaned up," Bhave said. "There is no need for investors to be nervous. Investors should be happy that wrong-doers are caught."

Investor confidence in markets has been ruffled in the past few weeks with the Central Bureau of Investigation arresting some bank officials on charges of corruption, including the LIC Housing Finance chief executive. SEBI had charged promoters and brokers of rigging stock prices.

The Intelligence Bureau had reportedly passed on information to the market regulator about some brokers' involvement in price manipulation in specific stocks.

"We are on the job of investigation... all the time coordinating with other government agencies," said Bhave without getting into the specifics of the operation.

Indian shares which have fallen 7% since its recent peak, rose on Friday. The 30-share BSE Sensex, rose 266.53 points, or 1.39%, to 19,508.89.

Reports of widening investigation by several agencies dragged down many shares such as that of KS Oils , Ruchi Soya Industries and Karuturi Global during the week.

Prior to that, SEBI penalised promoters of companies such as Murli Industries , Welspun and real estate developer Ackruti City for colluding with stock broker Sanjay Dangi to manipulate share prices.

This was preceded by the arrest of seven officials from the Bank of India , Punjab National Bank and the chief executive of Money Matters, an intermediary in the loans market, for corruption. Some of them are out on bail.

Source:-http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/regulation/SEBI-probe-into-rigging-will-clean-up-mkt-Bhave/articleshow/7079996.cms

Trading Levels for 13-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 13-12-10

R3 7385
R2 6625
R1 6243
AVG 5481
S1 5098
S2 4337
S3 3950

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 13-12-10

R3 7403
R2 6646
R1 6260
AVG 5505
S1 5120
S2 4367
S3 3981

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 13-12-10

R3 12189
R2 11865
R1 11681
AVG 11362
S1 11177
S2 10857
S3 10676

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (13 Dec to 17 Dec 2010)

R3 7724
R2 6899
R1 6375
AVG 5549
S1 5028
S2 4204
S3 3680

Weekly Analysis- 13-12-2010 to 17-12-2010

Long term trend is up. Intermediate term and short term trends are down in on going correction. Last 2 sessions intraday moves were gripped by the fear phycology of IB report on stock market scams. Report not disclosed and only SEBI chief statement came out that investors should not worry.

Indian markets recovered from day's lows on the back of good double digit IIP data last Friday after forming higher bottom support at rising trend line.

1-Higher Bottom Support at Rising Trend Line Chart-


As this up move was on the back of good IIP data therefore it may be short covering rally also and confirmations required. Nifty traded last 5 hours within 5800-5850 last Friday with distribution signals and 5850-5900 is next resistance. Market has to undergo a complete process for begining of rally,let it happen then up move possibilities will be considered.  Until Nifty will not sustain above 5900 till then any sustained rally will not be seen.

Indian markts retraced after good selling at higher levels and 26-11-2010 started pull back also could not cross resistance at 6015 as well as slipped sharply in last week after 4 days narrow range moves. As correction is on therefore following possibilities will be kept in mind:-

1- Intermediate term trend is down in on going correction and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5564)
2- ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-

A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)

2-ABC correction showing daily Chart:-
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

Rally terminated at 6339 and will correct whole rally which started from 5349 on 31-08-2010. On going 990 points rally will correct according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

13.0%- 6210
23.6%- 6105
27.0%- 6071
38.2%- 5960
50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461

3-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Chart-

Conclusions

Last 2 sessions down and up moves were based on news. Markets tanked down after announcement of Home ministery probe order on IB report leakage last Thursday and surged after good IIP data last Friday. These 2 days news based intraday moves were within 4735-4870 and lot of sentiments based high activities seen within this range. Next moves confirmations required in the begining of week:-

1- 5850-5900 is next resistance range and fresh consolidation requires for sustaining above 5900 and if Indian markets consolidate in the begining of week and Nifty sustains above 5900 then only next upmove will be considered. It should be kept in mind that 6015 is strong reistance decisive rally will be confirmed after sustaining above it only.

2- As last Friday surge was good IIP data fuelled therefore short covering possibility within last 5 hours trading range( 5800-5850)of last Friday can not be ruled out and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong indication of next moves. If Nifty finally sustains below 5800 then above mentioned ABC correction acoording to mentioned fibonacci retracement levels will be seen.

Indian markets will first prepare for next moves within 5800-5900 and then next moves will be seen according to above mentioned targets. Indian markets will first prepare within mentioned range and then next moves will be understood:-

1- Firstly from intraday trading patterns.
2- Secondly after breaking out of 5800-5900.

As pull back rally fused in last week after 4 days narrow range moves near 6000 and that complete consolidations requires for any up moves which has not started yet as well as selling patterns in Indices and many pivotal stocks therefore finally down moves below 5800 expected in the coming week but precautionally confirmations will also be taken from above mentions ways.

Mid-Session Outlook(10-12-2010)

Sentiment was completely depressed therefore recovery seen for change of sentiment on the back of improved IIP data. Confusion in market on IB report and implications of its leakages. Let it disclose and according to that its seariousness will be known till then confusion only. Voltality remains high in selling markets and today 1% rise may be its part also. 5850-5900 is next resistance and until that will not clear till then any type of next up move will not be considered.

Correction is on and today up moves are only sentiment based therefore any decisive up move will be considered only after confirmations.

Trading Levels for 10-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 10-12-10

R3 6093
R2 6015
R1 5890
AVG 5817
S1 5695
S2 5615
S3 5491

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10

R3 6075
R2 6008
R1 5896
AVG 5825
S1 5711
S2 5642
S3 5525

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10

R3 12014
R2 11813
R1 11496
AVG 11300
S1 10985
S2 10789
S3 10472

Pre-Open Market Outlook(10-12-2010)

Following line was told in last conclusive paragraph for yesterday:-

"Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow"

Down move was seen and Nifty cloed 137 points down as well as yesterday lowest was at 4742.

4 days narrow range move after pull back rally was the key and sustaining below it was confirmation of fresh down move toward the low of correction and that was seen yesterday.

ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-

A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)

ABC correction showing daily Chart:-


Long term trend is up. Short and intermediate term trends are down. Intermediate term trend is confirm down and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5561)

I told following lines yesterday:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."

Same lines repeating today also:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."

EOD charts are showing weak structure and complete selling patterns in intraday charts also therefore further down moves possibility can not be ruled out.

Today market moves will depend on on Govt clarification on IB report leakage but finally down moves will be seen. As per my view 200 Day EMA will be next trend decider and lot of process has to be completed for fresh rally. Complete consolidation requires for any type of upmoves and until that will not complete till then any type of rally should not be expected.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(09-12-2010)

Down move confirmation for today also after breaking 5877.

India's food inflation rate rises slightly to 8.69%

India's food inflation rate rose slightly to 8.69 for the week ended November 27 from 8.60 in the previous week, an official statement said here today, quoting provisional data.

The statement showed that the inflation rate for fuel remained unchanged from the previous week's level 9.99 per cent in the week ended November 27.

Mid-Session Outlook(09-12-2010)

Although global sentiment is little positive but mood depressed in indian markets due to scams. Nifty got intraday support at 5877 and traded up to 5910 as well as showed higher bottom also. AS sentiment dampened therefore fresh selling required today to break 5877 and little up move possibility can not be ruled out Until Nifty does not sustain above 6045 till then any decisive up move will not be considered. Thin volumes lacklustre market today and next trend signal will be drawn from the break out of today first 2 hours range(5877-5915). Upward break out will set up move up to 5945 and below 5877 will mean continuation of that down move which started after breaking down of 4 days narrow range moves.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-12-2010)

View was bullish for yesterday but after watching global sentiments I clearly told my changed view 3 times upto 1st hour of trading yesterday for saving any type of loss:-

1- Firstly told in half hour before opening in Pre-Open Market Outlook-2:- yesterday trading range(5945-5990) should be kept in mind for next up move confirmations.

2- Secondly told within 15 minutes after opening in Post-open outlook:- if Nifty sustains below 5945 then it will be termination of last week started pull back rally.

3- Thirdly told within 1 hour after opening inPost-Open Outlook-2:- After watching today down force it is expected that Nifty will not able to sustain above 5945.

It has been seen in last 5 sessions that ranges are being broken out and broken down after global cues and different news therefore sustaining beyond has to be seen for confirmations according to 2/3 days closing beyond technical requirements. Nifty closed below 5945 yesterday and if it happens today also then that will be confirmation of breaking down.

Although sustaining below question is left to be replied but It is clear from EOD charts that 4 days narrow range has been broken down and yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations. It seems that last week begun pull back rally has been finished yesterday and expected that Nifty will sustain below 5945 as well as more down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow.

Mid-Session Outlook(08-12-2010)

Indian markets showed complete weakness today and broken down last 4 days range for the reasons below:-

1- US markets lost all the gains and closed flat after Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy yesterday.
2- US futures trading in Red since morning today and more than 45 points down at this moment.
3- Petroleum rates hiking news.
4- China(SSE) .95% and Hangsang 1.5% down.

As sustaining below last 4 days range therefore more down move expected.

Post-Open Outlook-2(08-12-2010)

After watching today down force it is expected that Nifty will not able to sustain above 5945.

Post-Open Outlook(08-12-2010)

Last 4 days trading range broken down by force after weaker Asian cues and US futures today therefore if Nifty sustains below 5945 then it will be termination of last week started pull back rally.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 07-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(BOUGHT ON 07-12-2010)-US FUTURES & ASIAN MARKETS ARE WEAK TODAY MORNING THEREFORE COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5975

Pre-Open Market Outlook-2(08-12-2010)

US markets lost all intraday good gains after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy and closed flat therefore sentiment completely depressed and most Asian markets are Red today morning. Indian markets will trade within yesterday range first after negative opening today. Indian markets got good support at lower levels yesterday and technically up move signals are visible also but yesterday trading range(5945-5990) should be kept in mind for next up move confirmations.

3 Bullish Signals

1- MACD upward intersection of average line
2- Last 4 sessions range bound consolidations.
3- Upward break out of falling channel

6091 in on cards

Pre-Open Market Outlook(08-12-2010)

Last 4 sessions trading range is 5945-6065. Nifty slipped below 5965 but could not sustain and recovered as well as closed above. Last 4 sessions closing is as follows:-

1- 03-12-2010- 6012
2- 04-12-2010- 5993
3- 06-12-2010- 5992
4- 07-12-2010- 5977

Trading has been so close in last 4 sessions that closing has been within 35 points. Although Nifty closed at the lowest yesterday in last 4 sessions but daily candle is bullish Hammer with intraday consolidation patterns and rounding bottom formations.

1- Rounding Bottom Formations Chart-

MACD turned positive after intersecting average line upward and good consolidation seen yesterday therefore expected that Nifty will break out last 4 days range sustain above 5065 and test 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement level(6091) in the coming sessions. It seems that last 4 sessions narrow range moves will finally proove consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will clear both next resistance ranges and will test last resistance range in this month:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320(last resistance range)

Positive market and Green closing expected today.

Rounding Bottom Formation(Bullish) on 07-12-2010


Nifty Intraday Chart

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 07-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5964-TGT-6064-CMP-6015
NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE  FOR-SL-5964-TGT-6064 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6015

Pre-Closing Outlook(07-12-2010)

Range bound trading within 5945-5995 today.first 4 hours suggesting consolidation formation but could not sustain at higher level also therefore view is cautious and more confirmation required for fresh up move. Last 4 sessions indicating both buying and selling patterns and until Nifty does not sustain beyond 5945-6065 till then no confirmation.

As intraday charts are showing more consolidation formation therefore my view is turning bullish but little more confirmations are required yet.

Mid-Session Outlook(07-12-2010)

Nifty dipped 5965 and it is strong down move indication. Sustaining below 5965 will be next down move confirmation.

Water Fall(Bullish) Pattern

Pre-Open Market Outlook(07-12-2010)

For deciding next moves following factors will be kept in mind:-

1- Pull back rally is on.
2- Selling indication were seen during last 2 sessions in Last week.
3- Indian markets opened strong after positive Asian markets cues Yesterday and slipped from higher levels in "Water Fall Pattern"(Bullish Formation) in last 4 hours.
4- Consolidation was required after above mentioned last week selling indications which were seen at higher levels yesterday.
5- Yesterday higher levels slipping was attributed to rates hikes affected Banking sector down fall.

Nifty closed flat at 5992 yesterday. Last 3 sessions are suggesting:-

1- Selling indication within 5975-6020
2- Consolidation within 5980-6070 yesterday(as "Water Fall Pattern" therefore consolidation)

6015 is key and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications and Indian markets will prepare its near about for next moves in the coming sessions. Although slipped from higher levels yesterday but consolidation patterns in last 4 hours therefore 6015 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications.

Now next moves confirmation broader range is 5965-6065 and Nifty will prepare within it in the coming sessions for next moves and sustaing beyond 6015 is first strong indication point of next moves.

Although confirmations required but view turning bullish after watching "Water Fall Pattern" yesterday.

Mid-Session Outlook(06-12-2010)

Almost all the Asian markets are in green and Indian markets responding it with trading in positive zone. Nifty sustaing above 6025 since opening today and cleared previous strong resistance. Nifty next expected target is 6091

Post-Open Outlook(06-12-2010)

Strong opening and sustaining above 6025. Fresh up moove expected on the lines explained in weekly.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6045

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-MESSAGE

NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-MARKET MAY BE VOLATILE THEREFORE PLEASE COVER AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE

Pre-Open Market Outlook(06-12-2010)

Most Asian markets are positive therefore sentiment good today morning. Some banks hiked deposit and lending rates in last 2 days and some others are expected to follow in the coming week. Indian markets will respond these developments today and decide derection.

If Nifty sustains above 6025 then that will be confirmation of next up move. Let confirmation come then positions should be taken accordingly.

Weekly Analysis- 06-12-2010 to 10-12-2010

Following lines were told on 27-11-2010(Saturday) which prooved 100% accurate:-


"Pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations"

278 Nifty points pull back rally seen in last week which could not sustain above 6015 and Nifty closed at 5993. Last Week highest is 6030. 3 days vertical rise and 2 days narrow range moves within 5965-6025 seen during last week. Last 2 days range is now trend decider and its break out will give following moves:-

1- Sustaining above 6025 will mean clearing of strong resistance and testing of next resistance range( 6080-6120) and 61.8%(6091) retracement level.

2- Sustining below 5965 will mean strengthening of resistance at 6015(or 6025) and correction of first 3 days vertical rise of last week. If correction starts then firstly following fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for correction completion confirmations:-

23.6%- 5950
38.2%- 5900
50.0%- 5860
61.8%- 5820
76.4%- 5770
88.6%- 5728

1- Fibonacci Retracement Levels Daily Chart:-
Conclusions

As only 2 days selling indications therefore correction will be firstly expected according to above mentioned fibonacci retracement levels and if follow up selling develops in next week then deeper correction will be considered.

5965-6025 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond should be watched for next above mentioned moves.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADING

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-6023
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6023

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED TODAY)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6020

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-5997
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5997

Mid-Session Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty Hovering around yesterday last 45 minutes range(6005-6018) since opening today and sustaining beyond mentioned range will give following conclusions:-

1- Sustaining above 6015 will mean crossing strong resistance range and testing possibility of next resistance range(6080-6120) and 61.8% retracement level(6091)
2- Moving below 6005 will give first down move indication and sustaing below 5980 will give confirmation to temination of that pull back rally which started last Friday.

Intraday charts are not showing strength today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty traded within 5980-6018 yesterday and intraday charts within narrow range moves are showing consolidations patterns. Yesterday intraday charts of many other pivotal stocks are also showing buying formations.Nifty traded within 6005-6018 in last 45 minutes and intraday patterns of this period are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 6015 has to be watched for next up move confirmations. Next resistance ranges are as follows and its testing is possible after sustaining above 6015:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320

Pull back rally started from 5690 and its Fibonacci Retracement levels are as follows:-

13.0%- 5774
23.6%- 5843
27.0%- 5865
38.2%- 5937
50.0%- 6014
61.8%- 6091
70.7%- 6148
76.4%- 6185
78.6%- 6200
88.6%- 6265

50% retracement has been completed and next level 61.8%(6091) will be crucial because it is within next resistance range. Global markets are positive,sentiment is good today morning and sustaining above 6015 today will give confermation to sharp up move toward next resistance range. It should be kept in mind that complete distribution patterns require for begining of down move and until that will not be visible minimum within intraday charts till then any down move will not be considered.

Next up move confirmation point for today is sustaining above 6015 and next move confirmation range is 6982-6018. Intraday charts of first 2/3 hours will give confirmations to next moves and and according to that today closing and next moves will be decided.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(02-12-2010)

Market slipped from higher levels after minor profit booking. Volatality is also possible after inflation data today. As good consolidations in previous sessions therefore finally sustaining above 6015 possibility is high.

Nifty is trading within strong resistance range(5975-6015) and its break out and sustaining beyond should be watched for next move confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(02-12-2010)

I was out of station for the last 3 days therefore could not post my outlooks but before leaving I projected following conclusions in my weekly on 27-11-2010(Saturday) that:-

1- I told that "Pull Back Rally is on Cards"
2- I Posted 4 charts to proove pull back rally.
3- I Posted 7 strong reasons for pull back rally.
4- I told that "As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen"
5- I told that "pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week"

214 Nifty points rally seen in last 3 sessions. Last strong resistance range is 5935-6015 and Nifty traded within 5935-5965 yesterday. Global markets blasting therefore sentiment strong today morning and if Nifty sutiuns above 6015 then it will be strong confirmation of Intermediate term trend turning upward and continuation of pull back rally.

Sentiment heated today morning and profit booking possibility can not be ruled out. Intraday charts of yesterday are showing good consolidations and sustaining above 6015 possibility is high as well as positive closing after gap up opening will be seen today.
Only this line is adding that today intraday charts are suggesting consolidations and no harm to uptrend which started last Friday.

As lack of time therefore posting only this conclusion.

Blog will be regularly updated from Thursday morning. Sorry for inconvience.

Pull Back Rally is on Cards

Weekly Analysis- 29-11-2010 to 03-12-2010

Following lines were told in the last conclusive paragraph of last week weekly:-

"Nifty will finally sustain below 5932 after fresh selling in the coming week and weekly closing will be Red"

Nifty not only sustained below 5932 but also weekly closing was in Red.

Nifty has retraced 61.8%(5727) of earliier rise of 990 points. Vertical fall seen in last 14 sessions and it is shown in following EOD chart.

1- Vertical Fall in last 14 Sessions Chart-


Nifty has completed 5 waves in recent fall and it is shown in following EOD chart.

2- 5 Down waves Chart-


Last Friday intraday chart is good consolidations between 5700-5800 and it is shown in following intrady chart.

3- 1 Day Intraday Chart-


4- Daily Indicators and Averages chart-


Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together):- 

Nifty has suatined below 5932,Weekly MACD has given down move confirmation and intermediate term trend is confirm down. compelete consolidation required for fresh rally and in this process 200 Day EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.

Nothing is extreme truth in all the financial markets and one has to use his discretion and judge all the situations. Following 7 deveplopments are suggesting pull back rally in this week:-

1- Last 14 sessions steep fall has been seen and such down moves can not be seen continuously therefore some upmoves are confirm.
2- Line chart is showing 5 down waves formations and 5th wave is almost equal to 1st wave. I mean to say that 5th wave is also sufficiently down therefore signaling up moves possibility.
3- 61.8% retracement has been completed.
4- Intraday charts of last Friday are showing whole day good consolidations within 5700-5800.
5- Daily and very short term indicators are sufficiently oversold and signalling sharp upmove possibility.
6- Big divergence in both lines of MACD and according to its nature it has to converge therefore in this process market has to move up.
7- Nifty is below lower band of Bollinger Band and suggesting sharp surge.

Uptrend and fresh rally confirmations levels are as follows:-

1- Sustaining above 5932
2- Crossing and sustaining above following 3 resistances
a- 5850-5895
b- 5935-5975(Strong resistance)
c- 5975-6015(Strong resistance)

Good consolidation seen last Friday within 5700-5800 but not sufficient for a rally and follow up consolidation is must in the begining of week. As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen. Vertical fall of last 14 sessions is suggesting correction compeletion possibility also but confirmations required from coming sessions consolidations and sustaining above 6015.

Consolidations between 5700-5850 expected in the begining of week and after that pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations.

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-11-2010)

Panic sentiment today morning and Indian markets got good support at lower levels. 61.8% retracement level broken but market recovered after rounding bottom and higher bottom and higher top formations. Good support at lower levels but slipped more than 68 points from the high near 02 pm today. Although sharp slip from higher levels but today patterns are showing consolidations. If Nifty sustains above 5820 then today trading range will be support.

It is only 1st consolidation indication and follow up action is must in the coming week for convertion my bearish religion. conclusions from today intraday charts have been posted and let process complete then will be conveyed accordingly..

Mid-Session Outlook-2(26-11-2010)

Market is down and moves are extremely fast today morning. Let down trend stop and form base through double bottom/higher bottom/rounding bottom and nifty cross minimum 8 Minutes EMA then a very short term intraday buying can be done with strict stop loss below lowest.

Mid-Session Outlook(26-11-2010)

Support range for today is 5780-5850 which has been broken down in early trades today. Next crucial levels are as follows:-

1- Next support range-  5580-5640
2- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level- 5727

61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is understood good retracement level also and should be watched for confirmation of support at this level. Keep following lessons in mind:-

1- Bottom fishing in bear markets is always injurious to wealth.
2- Buying in bear markets is like catching falling knief and resulting one'sown hand full of one's own blood.

Just watch above mentioned levels and if Nifty get support near or above levels then may start buying,initially for very short term and positions should be increased after confirmations of supports strengthening.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(26-11-2010)

It is being non stop told since long for bear markets and dipping below 5932 possibility and it has happened. My outlooks are live proofs of this fact that I told only for bullish run away rally from 05-07-2010 and that was seen. When I started to tell for correction,rally stopped and correction started after that. Let market complete its correction then I shall tell well in advance about completion of correction and commencement of fresh rally.

As intermediate term correction is confirm therefore according to market nature 200-Day EMA testing possibility is high. Markets Moves does not mature within hours but takes its own time to complete process therefore let consolidation start and finish then up moves should be expected. As short term indicators are oversold therefore minor Pull back rally can be expected after any panic bottom but rally should be expected after complete consolidations.

Resistances are as follows:-

1- 5850-5895
2- 5935-5975(Strong resistance)
3- 5975-6015(Strong resistance)
4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320

Supports are as follows:-

1- 5780-5805                                      
2- 5580-5640
3- 5475-5500
4- 5420-5445
5- 5350-5370

Next Fibonacci correction levels are as follows:-

50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461

Nifty traded within 1st support range yesterday and expected that Nifty will hover around 5800 today. Any minor intraday up move possibility on the back of positive news or global sentiments can not be ruled out but until Nifty will not sustain minimum above mentioned 1st resistance till then any up move will not be considered. Today trading range is 5780-5850 and closing expected within it also.

6015 is Laxman Rekha

Post-Open Market Outlook(25-11-2010)

Intraday slow up moves are possible today but more or less quiet market and derivative expiery near 5900 expected today. View is bearish and 6015 is Laxman Rekha and not going to be crossed easily. Very much expected that selling will develop in the coming couple of sessions and finally fresh down moves will be seen either from tomorrow of in next week. 200 Day EMA testing posibility is high.

High Possibility of Testing 200-Day EMA(today at 5522)

Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-11-2010)

Down move Confirmations from MACD & Intraday Charts

Nifty is hovering around 5932 for the last 5 sessions and closed below it after genuine selling fomations between 5935-5975. Previous strong resistance was 5975-6015 and fresh selling was seen just below it yesterday therefore resistance within 5935-6015 is now much stronger resistance. Indian markets require complete consolidation patterns to cross this range and until it will not happened till then 6015 will not cross.

5932 was previous strong support and strong resistance developed just above(5935-6015) it therefore its breaking down and intermediate term trend turning down is confirm now. Weekly MACD gave strong down move confirmation through downward cross over therefore further down move and 200-Day EMA(today at 5522) testing is very much expected now.

Following charts are showing down move confirmation in MACD & intraday chart:-

1-5 days intraday chart-

2-MACD Down Cross Over in Weekly Chart-


Dow Jones Trading 130 points up at 10:32 pm on 24-11-2010 but above mentioned down moves are confirm and will be seen in the coming sessions. Strong global sentiment expected on 25th Nov morning and also very much posibile that Indian markets may be positive from opening to closing but will be finally down and dip below 24th Nov lower levels(5866) in the coming sessions.

Nifty sustaining below 5935 and is very much high and for precaution just watch sustaining beyond 5935-6015 for next trend confirmations.

Fresh Down move Confirmation in MACD & Intraday Chart

Nifty is hovering around 5932 for the last 5 sessions and closed below it after genuine selling fomations between 5935-5975.Previous strong resistance was 5975-6015 and fresh selling as seen just below it today therefore resistance within 5935-6015 is now much stronger resistance. Indian markets require complete consolidation patterns to cross this range and until it will not happened till then 6015 will not cross.

5932 was previous strong support and strong resistance developed above it therefore its breaking down and intermediate term trend turning down is confirm now. Weekly MACD gave strong down move confirmation through downward cross over therefore further down move and 200-Day EMA testing is very much expected now.

Following charts are showing down move confirmation in MACD & intraday chart:-

1-5 days intraday chart-
2-MACD Down Cross Over in Weekly Chart-

Dow Jones Trading 100 points up at this moment today but above mentioned down moves are confirm and will be seen in the coming sessions.