Finally on going Pull Back rally continuation expectations after routine Short Term corrections completion

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 20 to Feb 24,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning

2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion indications at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.

6- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 18134.80 on 16-02-2023.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 of new "Waves structure" started after "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022. Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun. Its completion indications emerged  after on going Pull Back Rally strongly continuation with recent top formations at 18134.80 on 16-02-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun.

2- Previous 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) 

3- Previous 24 sessions sideways trading range broken down on 27-01-2023 

4- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion indications at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.

5- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 18134.80 on 16-02-2023.

6- Last Friday closing within previous 24 sessions trading range at 17944.20

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Corrective Waves)

Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started from 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and this wave traded 24 sessions sideways 17762-18265 which was broken down 3 sessions before Budget on 27-01-2023. Lowest of this corrective wafe was formed on Budget day(01-02-2023) at 17353.40 and Pull Back rally started which is in continuation with recent top formations at 18134.80 on 16-02-2023. 

As on going Pull Back rally is moving up strongly and gained 781 points as well as last 2 weeks weekly closing was within previous 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) at 17856.50 and 17944.20 respectatively therefore indications of corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion emerged. Let Nifty to sustain above previous 24 sessions trading range highest(18265) then this corrective wave completion will get confirmation.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) & %D(3) are kissing in the Over bought zone.

2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 74.82 & %D(3)- 79.19.

3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive and negative zone.

4- MACD(26,12)- 10.88 & EXP(9)- -90.77 & Divergence- 101.65

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-

1- In Stochastic its both lines %K(5) & %D(3) are kissing in the Over bought zone therefore showing Short term correction signals which will be seen if fresh intraday selling will develop in next week.

2- In MACD its both lines are rising in positive and negative zone therefore showing Short Term upward Trend formation signals which will get confirmations after EXP line moving into positive zone.

These indicators are showing finally up moves beginning signals after Short term correction completion.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

A- 5-Day SMA is today at 17939 

B- 21-Day SMA is today at 17860

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 18088

D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17967 

E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17336

 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Although Nifty tested Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA on 16-02-2023 but closed below it in both previous seessions therefore Intermediate Term Trend is still down. As Nifty closed well above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA therefore this trend is still up. 

Short Term Trend is sideways between 17854-18134 for the last 3 sessions because its decider both 5-Day and 21-Day SMA are lying between last 3 sessions trading range and Nifty has also closed within this range also for the last 4 sessions therefore let Nifty to sustain beyond 17854-18134 then this trend will be understood accordingly.

 

Nifty-Last 3 Sessions

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 15 to Feb 17,2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours consolidation between 17903-17956 on 15-02-2023

2- Good selling between 18069-18134 on 16-02-2023

3- Selling between 17977-18022 on 17-02-2023

4- Consolidation between 17885-17934 on 17-02-2023

5- Last 3 Sessions actual trading between 17854-18134 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

Although more than 4 hours consolidation on 15-02-2023 but good selling was seen on next day(15-02-2023) also. As both higher levels selling and lower levels buying was seen on 17-02-2023 and it happened within both previoud trading rsnge(17854-18134) therefore expected that Nifty will trade and prepare for next Short Term trend within this range. Finally sustaining beyond(17854-18134) should be watched in the coming week for next Short Term moves beginning confirmations.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Short Term Trend is sideways between 17854-18134.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is down and it will be up after sustaining above its decider 55-Day SMA which is today at 18088 .

3- Long Term Trend is up.

Although no confirmation of corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion but its completion signals have been developed at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 because from this levels started on going Pull Back rally is moving up strongly and gained 4.5% ie 781 points. Let corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion confirmation come then impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 beginning will be considered. 

As Short Term indicator Stochastic is showing signals of Short Term correction beginning therefore it may be seen but on the contrary MACD is indicating upward Trend formation possibility also therefore fresh up moves beginning can not be ruled out after Short Term correction completion which may be sidways also. 

As Nifty is trading sideways between 17353-18265 after 23-12-2023 fall therefore Nifty is moving within Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA and Intermediate Term Trend 55-Day SMA for the last 3 months and preparing for the next big moves beginning after new trend formation. Nifty traded sideways 24 sessions between 17762-18265 and this range was broken down on 27-01-2023 also but last 2 weeks weekly closing was within this range therefore firstly sustaining beyond this previous 24 sessions trading range should be watched in the coming weeek/weeks for first strong signal of next Trend formations. 

Short Term Trend is sideways between 17854-18134 which is last 3 sessions trading range also with lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling within this range therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week for next Short Term Trend formation confirmations.

As finally on going Pull Back rally is moving up strongly therefore finally its continuation is expected after routine Short Term corrections completion but Nifty is trading sideways also for the last 3 months between 17353-18265 therefore following levels,supports and resistances within this range should be watched one by one for next decisive moves beginning and Trends formations confirmations:-

Levels:-

1- 17854-18134 

2- 17762-18265 

3- 17353-18265 

Next supports:-

1- 17885-17956

2- 17801-17864

3- 17720-17801

4- 17585-17718

5- 17513-17552

6- 17438-17492

Next resistances:-

1- 17977-18022

2- 18069-18132

3- 18155-18192

4- 18216-18240

 Finally sustaining beyond will confirm

 17903-18134 next Short term moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(17-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves after gap up strong opening

2- Selling between 18110-18134

3- Selling between 18087-18101

4- Selling between 18069-18088

5- Sharp fall in last hour

6- Whole day actual trading between 18001-18134

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Rally continuation expectations towards & above 18100":-

1- rally continuation is expected towards and above 18100

2- 1st Resistances between 18109-18132

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and:- 

1- Firstly rally was seen today above 18100 and today highest was at 18134.75 

2- Today highest was only 2.75 points above yesterday mentioned resistances between 18109-18132.

 

Although firstly up moves after gap up strong opening today but selling begun which remained continued with continuous follow up selling till last hour therefore resultant today closing was near the lower levels of the day.

Good consolidation was seen between 17903-17956 yesterday and equally good selling was between 18069-18134 today therefore firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next moves within and near about 17903-18134. 

As both lower levels buying and higher levels selling in last 2 sessions between 17903-18134 therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming sessions for next Short term moves beginning final confirmations. 

Rally continuation expectations 

towards & above 18100

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(16-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel after negative opening

2- Sharp up 

3- More than 4 hours consolidation between 17903-17956

4- Sharp up moves in last hour

5- Whole day actual trading between 17854-18034

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 01:06 AM today in "Firstly watched 17903-17954 for next decisive moves beginning confirmations & if above 17954 then sharp rally towards 18100":-

1- Some profit booking at intraday higher levels can not be ruled out.

and

2- Firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next decisive moves beginning between 17903-17954 tomorrow.

As was told 100% same happened and:- 

1- As higher levels profit booking yesterday therefore firstly 76 points down moves were seen today

2- Nifty traded and consolidated more than 4 hours exactly within yesterday mentioned trading range(17903-17954) today between 17903-17956 today.

Although negative opening but firstly down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves were seen after that. As more than 4 hours consolidation in Mid-session also between 17903-17956 therefore once again sharp up moves were seen in last hour and Nifty closed near the higher levels of the day.

Last 14 sessions trading range(17354-17972) of Nifty  was broken out today and Nifty closed above it also therefore firstly sustaining above 17972 should be watched in the coming sessions for decisive up moves beginning towards and above following next resistances:-

1- 18109-18132

2- 18155-18192

3- 18216-18240

Although previous 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) was broken down on 27-01-2023 but Nifty closed well above levels within it today therefore firstly above mentioned resistances should be watched. As once sustaining above 18265 will means strong rally beginning towards and above life time highest therefore finally it should be watched in the coming sessions/weeks.

As only intraday consolidation patterns formations and selling patterns were not seen today therefore rally continuation is expected towards and above 18100. Finally sustaining beyond above mentioned crucials levels should be watched in the coming highest for first strong indication of fresh rally beginning towards and above life time highest if sustains above 18240.

Firstly watched 17903-17954 for next 

decisive moves beginning confirmations 

& if above 17954 then 

sharp rally towards 18100 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 

Outlook(15-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 17801-17864

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Sideways trading in Mid session between 17903-17922

4- Sideways trading in last 2 hours between 17923-17954

5- Whole day actual trading between 17801-17954

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Af firstly 2 hours consolidation after positive opening therefore up moves were seen with downward corrections which means that with follow up consolidation. 

Although today closing was with with 158 points gains but last more than 3 hours trading was sideways between 17903-17954 and Very Short Term indicators have turned Overbought also therefore:-

1- Some profit booking at intraday higher levels can not be ruled out.

and

2- Firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next decisive moves beginning between 17903-17954 tomorrow.

As finally sustaining beyond 17903-17954 will confirm next decisive moves beginning therefore it should be firstly watched tomorrow. Keep in mind that sustaining above today highest(17954) will mean sharp rally towards 18100.

 Firstly up moves & finally sustaining 

above 17880 will confirm next 

Pull Back Rally beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(14-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 140 Points fall in first hour 

2- More than 5 hours consolidation between 17720-17801

3- Whole day actual trading between 17720-17880

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow Jones Futures was more than 100 points down today morning and most Asian markets were trading in Red also therefore sentiment turned dampened and resultant firstly 140 points fall was seen from intraday highest levels in first hour.

Although 0.48% negative closing after most time negative zone trading today but more than 5 hours consolidation between 17720-17801 also therefore firstly up moves are expected towards today highest(17880) and finally sustaining above it should be watched in the coming sessions for next Pull Back Rally beginning confirmations.

Strong rally beginning expectation 

towards & above life time highest 

after 2 Crucial Levels break out 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 13 to Feb 17,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

2- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.

3- 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023 

4- Last Friday closing within previous 24 sessions trading range at 17856.50

5- Last 11 Sessions actual trading between 17354-17972 which is Budget day(01-02-2023) trading range. 

6- Last 7 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17916.90 on 09-02-2023.

7- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone.

8- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 88.05 & %D(3)- 81.18.

9- MACD- Its both lines are kissing in the negative zone

10- MACD(26,12)- -122.47 & EXP(9)- -138.11 & Divergence- 15.64

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Waves structure of Nifty was potsed in previous week weekly Outlook and since then no material change in it therefore not being updated in this week weekly Outlook.

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 was completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.

Although 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) was broken down on 27-01-2023 but after this next 2 Weekly closing was within this range therefore confirmation of this range valid break down is still required. As last 11 Sessions trading was between 17354-17972 which is within Budget day(01-02-2023) trading range also and Last 7 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17916.90 on 09-02-2023 therefore firstly sustaining beyond last 11 Sessions trading range should be watched in the coming week for first strong signal of corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation/completion.

Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-

1- In Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone therefore some more up moves can not be ruled out. Although its both lines are in Over bought zone but let its downward intersection happen then Short Term correction will be considered.

2- In MACD its both lines are kissing in negative zone therefore showing indecisiveness signals. Let its one sided clear cross over happen then that sided Short Term Trend will be considered accordingly.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.

2- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023. 

4- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 which started from 16747.7 and completed at 18887.6.

5- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(16747.7-18887.6) are as follows:-

13.0%- 18609

23.6%- 18382

27.0%- 18309

38.2%- 18070(Crucial)

50.0%- 17817(Crucial)

61.8%- 17565(Crucial)

70.7%- 17374

76.4%- 17252

78.6%- 17205

88.6%- 16991

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completed at 16747.7 and impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started which completed at 18887.6. Now corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 which will correct impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(16747.7-18887.6) according to above mentioned Fibonacci retracement levels.

As Nifty has corrected 61.8% Crucial Level(17565) and also has retraced upto 70.7% Level(17374) after lowest formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 as well as strong Pull Back Rally developed after this lower levels formation therefore signals of Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion have emerged. Let confirmation come then its completion will be considered.

Nifty-Last 11 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 27 to Feb 10,2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 11 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels strong base formation from Jan 27 to Feb 03,2023 between 17354-17688 

2- Last 3 sessions most time trading between 17801-17876 with intraday consolidation patterns formation indications

3- Last 11 Sessions actual trading between  17354-17972 

Conclusions from 11 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

Last 11 Sessions actual trading between  17354-17972 in which firstly strong base was formed at lower levels between 17354-17688 and after that up moves started on 03-02-2023. As last 3 sessions most time trading was below last 11 sessions highest without slipping below 17688 therefore signals of sustaining at higher levels of 11 sessions range have been seen. As some consolidation at lower levels in previous 3 sessions have also been seen therefore up moves beginning expectations above last 11 sessions highest(17972) have emerged. 

Fresh consolidation without sustaining below 17801 will be first strong signal of strong rally beginning and finally sustaining above last 11 sessions highest(17972) will confirm it which should be firstly watched in next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(10-Feb-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day sideways trading with consolidation patterns indications between 17801-17876

2- Whole day actual trading between 17801-17876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after weaker opening and Nifty traded 92 points down also last Friday but whole day sideways trading was seen with consolidation patterns indications therefore view will not be Bearish immediately. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about last Friday trading range(17801-17876) as well as prepare for next decisive moves beginning therefore finally sustaining beyond last Friday trading range should be watched in the beginning of coming week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Short Term Trend is sideways between 17354-17902.

2- Intermediate Term is down.

3- Long Term Trend is up.

Although corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on Union-Budget day(01-02-2023) and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but following signals of its completion have emerged which should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks:-

1- Nifty has retraced 61.8% Crucial Level(17565) and sustaining above it for the last 6 sessions with recent lowest formation above it at 17585 on 03-02-2023. 

2- Last 11 Sessions trading between 17354-17972 with lower levels strong base formation between 17354-17688.

3- Last 3 sessions most time trading between 17801-17876 with intraday consolidation patterns formation indications.

4- Nifty has not slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 17313) during on going correction.

Next supports and resistances beyond last Friday closing(17856) are as follows:-

Supports:-

1- 17816-17841

2- 17719-17783

3- 17585-17718

4- 17513-17552

5- 17438-17492

6- 17226-17374

Resistances:-

1- 17912-17972

2- 18109-18132

3- 18155-18192

4- 18216-18240

5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)

As more than 500 points recovery from lower levels from Union-Budget lowest and lower levels good intraday  consolidation patterns formations were seen also in the last 11 sessions therefore strong rally beginning possibility has emerged after on going Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 correction completion. Let nifty to sustain above following next 2 Crucial levels then strong rally will be seen towards and above life time highest and it is expected also:-  

1- Last 11 sessions highest(17972)

2- Previous 24 sessions trading range highest(18265)

Firstly watch 17780-17916 after weaker Global cues amid fresh rally beginning possibility above 17916

Pre-open Outlook(10-02-2023)

As Dow Jones closed 249 points down after slipping 550 points from intraday highest yesterday therefore sentiment turned weaker today morning and resultant most Asian markets are trading in Red hence Indian markets will also open in negative zone today.

Lower levels good intraday consolidation was seen yesterday therefore until Nifty will not slip below yesterday lowest(17780) till then decisive down moves will not be seen and follow up consolidation today will mean finally strong rally above yesterday highest(17916)

Expected that Nifty will trade most time today within yesterday trading range(17780-17916) and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm next decisive moves beginning therefore finally it should be watched in the coming sessions amid fresh rally beginning possibility above yesterday highest(17916).

Finally decisive up moves above 

today highest & 18000 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(10-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Sharp up moves

3- Consolidation between 17823-17884

4- Sharp up moves

5- Sideways trading in last hour with consolidation patterns indications between 17878-17916

6- Whole day actual trading between 17780-17916

Conclusions from intra day

chart analysis 

Although firstly 103 Points down moves from intraday higher levels in first 30 minutes after positive opening but were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves were seen after that. As consolidation between 17823-17884 in Mid-session also therefore again sharp moves were seen after 01:30 PM. 

Sideways trading with consolidation patterns indications between 17878-17916 in last hour but Very Short Term indications have turned Overbought also after more than 400 points recovery from lower levels in last 6 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about this range(17878-17916)  tomorrow but expected that finally decisive up moves will be seen above today highest and 18000 in the coming sessions/week.

 As out of station therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(09-02-2023) is not being updated.

 Valid break out of today trading range 

will confirm next decisive beginning 

after RBI Credit Policy

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(08-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 79 Points sharp fall after positive opening

2- Selling between 17730-17785

3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

4- Sharp up

5- Volatility in last hour between 17709-17778

6- Whole day actual trading between 17653-17811

Conclusions from intra day

chart analysis 

Although positive opening but firstly 79 points sharp fall and after that selling between 17730-17785 therefore down moves remained continued in first 4 hours and Nifty traded 111 points down also. As lower levels consolidation was also seen through down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves developed from lower levels.

As only volatility in last hour after higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore it will be understood that one sided technical positions could not be formed today. it is clear that Nifty will have to prepare for next decisive moves beginning and that will be done within and near about today trading range therefore firstly valid break out today trading range(17653-17811) should be watched tomorrow for next decisive beginning confirmations after RBI Credit Policy announcements at 10:00 AM tomorrow.

Sustaining above 17783 will confirm

 sharp up moves beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(07-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 137 Points sharp fall in first 20 minutes after weaker opening.

2- Selling between 17769-17802

3- Sharp fall

4- Consolidation Patterns indications in last 5 hours between 17699-17783

5- Whole day actual trading between 17699-17823

Conclusions from intra day

chart analysis 

As higher levels selling last friday therefore firstly 137 Points sharp fall was seen in first 20 minutes after weaker opening and fresh selling developed after intraday recovery from lower levels hence sharp fall was seen again.  

Although whole day negative zone trading and today closing was 89.45 down also but consolidation Patterns indications were seen in the last 5 hours between 17699-17783. If fresh consolidation develops tomorrow then sharp up moves will be seen above today highest. Finally sustaining above 17783 should be watched in the coming sessions for such sharp up moves beginning confirmations.

Fresh Rally beginning above life time 

highest at 18887.6 without slipping 

on going correction lowest at 17353.4

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 06 to Feb 10,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning

2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.

6- Last 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023 

7- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17870.30 on 03-02-2023.

8- Last Friday closing within previous 24 sessions trading range at 17854.05

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

"ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and new "Waves structure" started through its Impulsive Wave-1. Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD Charts.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Bollinger Band,Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Nifty closed just below Middle Band of Bollinger Band last Friday. 

2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone.

3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 52.54 & %D(3)- 40.51.

4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.

5- MACD(26,12)- -142.68 & EXP(9)- -61.33 & Divergence- -81.35

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Although new low of on going correction formed in previous week but Pull back rally started in last 2 sessions and Nifty closed just below Middle Band of Bollinger Band last Friday which is an indication of up moves continuation towards Upper Band of Bollinger Band.

Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-

1- In Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone which is an indication of Short Term up moves continuation in next week.

2- In MACD its  MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore showing downward trend formation indications.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

A- 5-Day SMA is today at 17678 

B- 21-Day SMA is today at 17902

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 18196

D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17945

E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17297

 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Although Nifty closed well above 5-Day SMA at 17854 last Friday but below 21-Day SMA therefore Short Term Trend is still down. As Long Term trend decider 200-Day SMA is at 17297 therefore Long Term trend is up but Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA is at 18196  therefore Long Term trend is still down.

The difference between 5-Day SMA and 55-Day SMA is 518 points and the difference between previous closing(17854) and 55-Day SMA is 342 points. As finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm Intermediate Term trend therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations because it is not far above last closing of Nifty.

Nifty-Last 6 Sessions

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 27 to Feb 03,2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 6 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels strong base formation in last 6 sessions between 17354-17870  

2- Last 6 Sessions actual trading between 17354-17972 

Conclusions from 6 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

Although on union Budget day Nifty lost 618 points from higher levels and closed in Red also but last 6 session which are 3 days before it and 2 days after it have shown lower levels good intraday consolidation patterns formations. As such nice consolidation in last 6 sessions therefore it will be understood that lower levels strong base has been formed in last 6 sessions between 17354-17870 and strong rally will be seen above last 6 sessions highest(17972)in the coming week/weeks.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(03-Feb-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours consolidation between 17585-17718

2- Sharp up moves

3- Selling in last hour between 17817-17870

4- Whole day actual trading between 17585-17870

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping in first hours after positive opening and trading in negative zone also but in consolidation patterns formations as well as more than 4 hours consolidation between 17585-17718 therefore sharp up moves were seen in Mid-session. As minor selling at intraday higher levels in last hour therefore firstly some down moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but lower levels good consolidation also last Friday therefore finally up moves are expected above 17870 in next week.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Short Term Trend is sideways between 

17354-17902.

2- Intermediate Term is down.

3- Long Term Trend is up.

Although corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD Charts.Although previous 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) was broken down on 27-01-2023 but Nifty closed within it at 17854.05 last Friday. As it is an indication of not sustaining below previous 24 sessions sideways trading range and once sustaining above it(18265) will mean strong rally beginning because that will confirm:-

1- 24 Sessions like big trading range break out  

2- Intermediate Term Trend turning up after sustaining above its decider 55-Day SMA which is today at 18196

Although MACD is showing downward trend formation signals but Stochastic is indicating Short Term up moves continuation towards its Over bought zone in next week and that is expected also therefore let it happen first then will be decided according to that time indicators positions formations. Next supports and resistances beyond last Friday closing are as follows:-

Supports:-

1- 17585-17718

2- 17513-17552

3- 17438-17492

4- 17226-17374

Resistances:-

1- 17912-17972

2- 18109-18132

3- 18155-18192

4- 18216-18240

5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)

As 243 Points Pull Back Rally with its recent closing at 17854 was seen last Friday after last 6 Sessions strong base formation between 17354-17870 and last friday closing was within previous 24 sessions sideways trading range also therefore emergence of fresh and decisive Rally beginning expectations towards and above life time highest(18887.6) in the coming weeks/months without slipping below on going correction lowest(17353.4) after all the trends turning up and without affecting from Adani Group crisis.  

17490-17649 Will confirm next 

trend beginning first signal 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(03-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Firstly slipping 172 points in first 3 minutes after weaker opening

2- 205 Points sharp up moves in 45 minutes

3- Last 5 and half hour sideways trading between 17490-17649 

4- Whole day actual trading between 17446-17653

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping 172 points in first 3 minutes after weaker opening but after that 205 points sharp up moves was seen in the next 45 minutes. As last 5 and half hour sideways trading between 17490-17649 and one sided intraday trading patterns formations was not seen within this range therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming sessions for the confirmation of next trend beginning first signal.

 Finally 17290 will confirm Union Budget final reaction on Indian Stock markets & Long Term Trend

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 

Outlook(02-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Slow up moves after gap up strong opening

2- Sharp up moves during Budget hours

3- Selling between 17912-17972

4- Down moves with upward corrections

5- Volatility in last hour between 17354-17669

6- Whole day actual trading between 17354-17972

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As high expectations from Budget and good intraday consolidation was seen yesterday also therefore firstly gap up strong opening and sharp up moves developed during Budget hours also but higher levels selling developed between 17912-17972 after Budget announcements led heated sentiments and down started.  

Nifty lost 618 points from higher levels because Down moves were with upward corrections. As such huge intraday correction therefore Nifty corrected and recovered 315 points from lower levels in last 40 minutes during volatility last hour volatility between 17354-17669.  

Higher levels good intraday selling is confirm today and firstly complete consolidation is required for moving above today highest.

Following next supports have been updated in previous Outlooks and Nifty tested both today but closed well above it at 17616.30 today:-

1- 17381-17401(Gap support)

2- 17226-17374

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 17290 which is within above mentioned 2nd supports(17226-17374) also therefore finally sustaining beyond this supports range should be watched in the coming sessions for Union Budget final reaction on Indian Stock markets and Long Term Trend also.

Finally sustaining beyond 17406-17709 will confirm post Budget next trend 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 

Outlook(01-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jan-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 130 Points fall in first 6 minutes

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

3- Up moves with downward corrections

4- Whole day actual trading between 17538-17735

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly 130 points fall in first 6 minutes but consolidation was seen firstly through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and after that Up moves with downward corrections therefore good intraday consolidation will be understood today and firstly up moves are expected towards today highest. As Union Budget will be tabled tomorrow  and its announcements led volatility will also be seen therefore finally sustaining beyond 17406-17709 should be watched for post Budget next trend formation confirmations. 

Firstly watch next supports for post Budget next trend formation confirmations 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(31-01-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jan-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day only intraday volatility

2- Whole day actual trading between 17406-17709

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As sentiment turned depressed due to Adani Group negative news therefore Nifty slipped 150 points in first 2 minutes and Union Budget presentation also after 2 days and its led expectations also therefore more than 300 points intraday volatility developed and one sided technical positions formations was not seen today. 

Following next supports were updated in previous Outlook:-

1- 17381-17401(Gap support)

2- 17226-17374

As today lowest was just above 1st supports at 17405.55 and Nifty honored it during such dampened sentiments also therefore firstly sustaining beyond this 1st supports range should be watched in the coming 2 sessions for post Budget next trend formation confirmations.

Watch crucial levels,supports and resistances for next trend formation confirmations amid Budget proposals led huge volatility possibility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly 

Outlook(Jan 30 to Feb 03,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Jan-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning

2- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.

4- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

5- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17493.55 on 27-01-2023.

6- Last 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun after corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022. Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 of on going Waves structure completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and after that corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17493.55 on 27-01-2023.

Nifty traded sideways for the last 24 sessions like big period between 17762-18265 and this trading range was forcefully broken down on 27-01-2023 which has generated strong signal of corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation in the coming week/weeks 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Jan-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

2- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17493.55 on 27-01-2023.

3- Last 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023 

4- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.

5- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 27.96 & %D(3)- 46.19.

6- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in negative zone.

7- MACD(26,12)- -26.91 & EXP(9)- -72.29 & Divergence- 45.38

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

As deeper correction beginning signals emerged last Friday after forcefully broken down of last 24 sessions like big trading range and Short Term indicator Stochastic is also suggesting some more down moves possibilities because its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone therefore some more down moves can not be ruled out in next week. Although in MACD indicator its both lines are are rising in negative zone and showing upward trend formation signals also but its both lines are just below 0.00 line therefore no confirmations and let its both lines to move into positive zone then will confirm strong signals of upward trend formations. 

Both the indicators are showing adverse signals from each other therefore will be better to wait in the beginning of next week for the generation of one sided trend formation signals. Let it happen then should be understood from one sided trend formation signals from both these indicators.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(27-Jan-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- 140 Points sharp recovery from lower levels in last hour

3- Whole day actual trading between 17494-17884

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although only 14 points weaker opening but after that down moves started which remained continued in the next 5 hours and once Nifty lost 398 points also. As these down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore 140 points sharp recovery was seen from lower levels in last hour and Nifty closed 1.61% down last Friday.

As only intraday consolidation through more than 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel last Friday therefore view will not be Bearish and fresh consolidation with not sustaining below last Friday lowest(17494) will mean strong rally beginning in next week.

Conclusions (After putting

all studies together)

1- Short Term Trend is down.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is down.

3- Long Term Trend is up and finally sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 17289) will confirm it after last Friday lowest formations(17493.55) little above it.

Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts but strong signals of its continuation emerged after last 24 sesseion like big sideways trading range forcefully broken down on 27-01-2023. 

As Short Term indicator Stochastic has not turned Over bought yet therefore showing some more down moves possibilities hence correction continuation can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but MACD is showing upward trend formation signals therefore fresh up moves beginning is expected after some more down moves. 

Although once Nifty lost 398 points and closed 1.61% down also last Friday but whole day intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations and follow up consolidation with not sustaining below last Friday lowest will mean(17494) strong Pull Back rally beginning possibility which is expected also therefore sustaining above following crucial levels should be watched for decisive up moves beginning confirmations:-  

1- Bottom of last 24 sessions at 17762 for 1st signal of decisive up moves beginning.

2- 100-Day SMA is today at 17950 for 2nd signal of decisive up moves beginning.

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 18259 for Intermediate Term Trend confirmations.

4- Top of last 24 sessions at 18265 for strong signal of corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 completion and rally above life time top at 18887.6. 

Next supports below last Friday lowest are as follows:-

1- 17381-17401(Gap support)

2- 17226-17374

Next resistances above last Friday highest are as follows:-

1- 17909-17941

2- 18109-18132

3- 18155-18192

4- 18216-18240

5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)

As firstly Union Budget-2023-24 led uncertainty will prevail and finally Indian markets will react on Budget proposals also in next week therefore sustaining beyond above mentioned "crucial levels,supports and resistances" should be watched one by one in next week for next trend formation confirmations amid Budget proposals led huge volatility possibility.