6091 in on cards

Pre-Open Market Outlook(08-12-2010)

Last 4 sessions trading range is 5945-6065. Nifty slipped below 5965 but could not sustain and recovered as well as closed above. Last 4 sessions closing is as follows:-

1- 03-12-2010- 6012
2- 04-12-2010- 5993
3- 06-12-2010- 5992
4- 07-12-2010- 5977

Trading has been so close in last 4 sessions that closing has been within 35 points. Although Nifty closed at the lowest yesterday in last 4 sessions but daily candle is bullish Hammer with intraday consolidation patterns and rounding bottom formations.

1- Rounding Bottom Formations Chart-

MACD turned positive after intersecting average line upward and good consolidation seen yesterday therefore expected that Nifty will break out last 4 days range sustain above 5065 and test 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement level(6091) in the coming sessions. It seems that last 4 sessions narrow range moves will finally proove consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will clear both next resistance ranges and will test last resistance range in this month:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320(last resistance range)

Positive market and Green closing expected today.

Rounding Bottom Formation(Bullish) on 07-12-2010

Nifty Intraday Chart

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 07-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5964-TGT-6064-CMP-6015
NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE  FOR-SL-5964-TGT-6064 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6015

Pre-Closing Outlook(07-12-2010)

Range bound trading within 5945-5995 today.first 4 hours suggesting consolidation formation but could not sustain at higher level also therefore view is cautious and more confirmation required for fresh up move. Last 4 sessions indicating both buying and selling patterns and until Nifty does not sustain beyond 5945-6065 till then no confirmation.

As intraday charts are showing more consolidation formation therefore my view is turning bullish but little more confirmations are required yet.

Mid-Session Outlook(07-12-2010)

Nifty dipped 5965 and it is strong down move indication. Sustaining below 5965 will be next down move confirmation.

Water Fall(Bullish) Pattern

Pre-Open Market Outlook(07-12-2010)

For deciding next moves following factors will be kept in mind:-

1- Pull back rally is on.
2- Selling indication were seen during last 2 sessions in Last week.
3- Indian markets opened strong after positive Asian markets cues Yesterday and slipped from higher levels in "Water Fall Pattern"(Bullish Formation) in last 4 hours.
4- Consolidation was required after above mentioned last week selling indications which were seen at higher levels yesterday.
5- Yesterday higher levels slipping was attributed to rates hikes affected Banking sector down fall.

Nifty closed flat at 5992 yesterday. Last 3 sessions are suggesting:-

1- Selling indication within 5975-6020
2- Consolidation within 5980-6070 yesterday(as "Water Fall Pattern" therefore consolidation)

6015 is key and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications and Indian markets will prepare its near about for next moves in the coming sessions. Although slipped from higher levels yesterday but consolidation patterns in last 4 hours therefore 6015 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications.

Now next moves confirmation broader range is 5965-6065 and Nifty will prepare within it in the coming sessions for next moves and sustaing beyond 6015 is first strong indication point of next moves.

Although confirmations required but view turning bullish after watching "Water Fall Pattern" yesterday.

Mid-Session Outlook(06-12-2010)

Almost all the Asian markets are in green and Indian markets responding it with trading in positive zone. Nifty sustaing above 6025 since opening today and cleared previous strong resistance. Nifty next expected target is 6091

Post-Open Outlook(06-12-2010)

Strong opening and sustaining above 6025. Fresh up moove expected on the lines explained in weekly.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6045

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-MESSAGE

NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-MARKET MAY BE VOLATILE THEREFORE PLEASE COVER AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE

Pre-Open Market Outlook(06-12-2010)

Most Asian markets are positive therefore sentiment good today morning. Some banks hiked deposit and lending rates in last 2 days and some others are expected to follow in the coming week. Indian markets will respond these developments today and decide derection.

If Nifty sustains above 6025 then that will be confirmation of next up move. Let confirmation come then positions should be taken accordingly.

Weekly Analysis- 06-12-2010 to 10-12-2010

Following lines were told on 27-11-2010(Saturday) which prooved 100% accurate:-


"Pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations"

278 Nifty points pull back rally seen in last week which could not sustain above 6015 and Nifty closed at 5993. Last Week highest is 6030. 3 days vertical rise and 2 days narrow range moves within 5965-6025 seen during last week. Last 2 days range is now trend decider and its break out will give following moves:-

1- Sustaining above 6025 will mean clearing of strong resistance and testing of next resistance range( 6080-6120) and 61.8%(6091) retracement level.

2- Sustining below 5965 will mean strengthening of resistance at 6015(or 6025) and correction of first 3 days vertical rise of last week. If correction starts then firstly following fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for correction completion confirmations:-

23.6%- 5950
38.2%- 5900
50.0%- 5860
61.8%- 5820
76.4%- 5770
88.6%- 5728

1- Fibonacci Retracement Levels Daily Chart:-

Conclusions

As only 2 days selling indications therefore correction will be firstly expected according to above mentioned fibonacci retracement levels and if follow up selling develops in next week then deeper correction will be considered.

5965-6025 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond should be watched for next above mentioned moves.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADING

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-6023
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6023

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED TODAY)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6020

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-5997
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5997

Mid-Session Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty Hovering around yesterday last 45 minutes range(6005-6018) since opening today and sustaining beyond mentioned range will give following conclusions:-

1- Sustaining above 6015 will mean crossing strong resistance range and testing possibility of next resistance range(6080-6120) and 61.8% retracement level(6091)
2- Moving below 6005 will give first down move indication and sustaing below 5980 will give confirmation to temination of that pull back rally which started last Friday.

Intraday charts are not showing strength today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty traded within 5980-6018 yesterday and intraday charts within narrow range moves are showing consolidations patterns. Yesterday intraday charts of many other pivotal stocks are also showing buying formations.Nifty traded within 6005-6018 in last 45 minutes and intraday patterns of this period are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 6015 has to be watched for next up move confirmations. Next resistance ranges are as follows and its testing is possible after sustaining above 6015:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320

Pull back rally started from 5690 and its Fibonacci Retracement levels are as follows:-

13.0%- 5774
23.6%- 5843
27.0%- 5865
38.2%- 5937
50.0%- 6014
61.8%- 6091
70.7%- 6148
76.4%- 6185
78.6%- 6200
88.6%- 6265

50% retracement has been completed and next level 61.8%(6091) will be crucial because it is within next resistance range. Global markets are positive,sentiment is good today morning and sustaining above 6015 today will give confermation to sharp up move toward next resistance range. It should be kept in mind that complete distribution patterns require for begining of down move and until that will not be visible minimum within intraday charts till then any down move will not be considered.

Next up move confirmation point for today is sustaining above 6015 and next move confirmation range is 6982-6018. Intraday charts of first 2/3 hours will give confirmations to next moves and and according to that today closing and next moves will be decided.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(02-12-2010)

Market slipped from higher levels after minor profit booking. Volatality is also possible after inflation data today. As good consolidations in previous sessions therefore finally sustaining above 6015 possibility is high.

Nifty is trading within strong resistance range(5975-6015) and its break out and sustaining beyond should be watched for next move confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(02-12-2010)

I was out of station for the last 3 days therefore could not post my outlooks but before leaving I projected following conclusions in my weekly on 27-11-2010(Saturday) that:-

1- I told that "Pull Back Rally is on Cards"
2- I Posted 4 charts to proove pull back rally.
3- I Posted 7 strong reasons for pull back rally.
4- I told that "As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen"
5- I told that "pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week"

214 Nifty points rally seen in last 3 sessions. Last strong resistance range is 5935-6015 and Nifty traded within 5935-5965 yesterday. Global markets blasting therefore sentiment strong today morning and if Nifty sutiuns above 6015 then it will be strong confirmation of Intermediate term trend turning upward and continuation of pull back rally.

Sentiment heated today morning and profit booking possibility can not be ruled out. Intraday charts of yesterday are showing good consolidations and sustaining above 6015 possibility is high as well as positive closing after gap up opening will be seen today.

Only this line is adding that today intraday charts are suggesting consolidations and no harm to uptrend which started last Friday.

As lack of time therefore posting only this conclusion.

Blog will be regularly updated from Thursday morning. Sorry for inconvience.