Last corrective Wave before Strong Bullish Rally

Technical Dissection,Next Direction & Crucial Supports of On Going Correction 

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bullish Flag Pattern(Falling Channel) in on going Correction
2- C.W.-1(5171.45 on 07-03-2012)
3- C.W.-2(5499.40 on 14-03-2012)
4- C.W.-3(5135.95 on 29-03-2012)
5- C.W.-4(5378.75 on 03-04-2012)
6- C.W.-5 is on
(C.W.:Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Conclusions from EOD chartS analysis 

Downward Corrective Wave-5 continuation in on going correction and next supports at lower levels are as follows:-

1- 5175-5236 
2- 5136-5167
3- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(5629-4532) of on going correction are as follows-

13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Nifty traded more than one hour on 13-04-2012 between 5200-5236 and within above mentioned 1st Support range which is strong support also. Next support range(5136-5167) below 5175 is most crucial because Nifty got 2 times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA(today at 5145) is lying within this range therefore support getting possibility at or near about Long Term Trend deciding 200-Day SMA can not be ruled out. Firstly above mentioned supports should be watched in the beginning of next week but C.W.-5 is on and bottom B3 formations below 5135.95 can not be ruled out.

Just click following topic Link to understand on going correction nature:-

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation In On Going Correction

Multiple resistances at higher levels and complete consolidations and base formation will not be seen till then Impulsive Sub Wave-3 after correction completion can not be considered. Although least possibility of sustaining below 200-Day SMA but correction is on and following 3 Crucial Fibonacci Retracement Levels should also be kept in mind.

Crucial 3 Fibonacci Retracement Levels(5629-4532)

1- 38.2%- 5209(Aleady broken down)
2- 50.0%- 5080(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)
3- 61.8%- 4950(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)

As Bullish Flag Pattern(Falling Channel) formations in on going Correction therefore finally Indian markets will get supports at any of above levels. Firstly correction completion and and after that Strong rally in the form of  Sub Wave-3 will generate to form new highs above 6000(Nifty). As soon as Indian markets will start consolidation and base formation then will be updated according to our last 5 years record.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation In On Going Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation

T1(5629.95)
T2(5499.40)
T3(5378.75)
B1(5171.45)
B2(5135.95)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction is on and its completion is required yet. As lower tops and lower bottoms formations in on going correction therefore new bottom B3 formations possibility below 5135.95 can not be ruled out in the coming week/weeks.

Strong Rally Confirmations from Long Term Charts

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 1st impulsive wave begun on 27-10-2008 from 2252.
2- 2nd corrective wave begun on 12-06-2009 from 4693.
3- 3rd impulsive wave begun on 13-07-2009 from 3919.
4- Corrective 4th beginning in Falling Channel(14 Months long) on 05-11-2010 from 6338. 
5- 5th impulsive wave begun on 20-12-2011 from 4532(Bottom in 13th month).
6- 14 Months Falling Channel final break out on 31-01-2012.
7- 5th wave gained 1098.80 Nifty Points in 45 sessions upto 22-02-2012
8- Corrective Sub Wave-1 beginning in Falling Channel from 22-02-2012.
9- Correction recent bottom at 5136 on 29-03-2012.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

5th impulsive wave is on from 4532 after forming bottom in corrective 13th month on 20-12-2011 and its confirmation through break out of 14 months falling channel(Bullish Flag Pattern) on 31-01-2012. 5th wave gained 1098.80 Nifty Points in 45 sessions and after that corrective Sub Wave-1 beginning in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Pattern) from 22-02-2012. Correction is on after formation of its recent bottom at 5136 on 29-03-2012 but no confirmation of its completion yet.

As on going correction is continued in falling channel(Bullish Flag Pattern) therefore technically strong indications of Bullish rally after completion of correction. Expected that finally Bullish Flag Pattern will result in the same manner as has been seen after correction completion on 20-12-2011 at 4532 and Nifty gained 1098.80 Points in 45 sessions.

Correction is on and possible lower levels will be updated within 24 hours. Just wait for on going correction completion confirmations and then expect blasting Bullish moves. 

Correction is on & Firstly Watch Next Supports

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

 (Apr 16 to Apr 20,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally bottom)
2- Wave-1 top at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012
3- Corrective Wave-2 bottom at 5135.95 on 29-03-2012(Correction bottom got support just below 200 Day SMA)
4- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction.
5- Wave-3 beginning from 30-03-2012 but its confirmation is required
6- Bullish 'Flag Pattern' Pattern Formation(Falling Channel) in on going post 22-02-2012 correction.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Long term trend is up,Short term trend turned turned down after Sharp fall on 13-04-2012 and Intermediate term trend is sideways in on going correction. Firstly weekly top formation and after that weekly bottom formation seen on 13-04-2012 after higher levels good selling.

36 sessions correction. Resistances and Supports within this correction are as follows:-

Resistances:

5- 5588-5625
4- 5418-5487
3- 5357-5377
2- 5318-5337
1- 5275-5305

Supports:

1- 5175-5236 
2- 5136-5167
3- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Correction is very much on after higher levels intraday selling and sharp fall on 13-04-2012. As above mentioned first support has been tested and no support getting confirmations yet therefore firstly above mentioned supports should be watched and any decisive up move will be considered after complete support formation confirmations.

Bullish 'Flag Pattern' Pattern Formation(Falling Channel) in on going post 22-02-2012 correction therefore expected that finally rally above 5629.95(Wave-1 top) will be seen after completion of correction. As strong and multiple resistances at higher levels therefore complete consolidations and base formation is required for a decisive rally.

Next week first trading range will be 5136-5275. Sustaining below 5136 will be deeper correction confirmation and sustaining above 5305 be first indication of correction completion. 

Next Monday Asian markets reaction on Western Markets Bloodshed

Global markets down moves started after opening of European markets but sharp fall seen after negative news flow from Europe. Global sentiment turned so highly depressed that all the US and American markets closed more than 1% down.

European,US and American Stock Markets closing on 13-04-2012 are as follows:-

European Stock Markets

DAX-      159.34 Points and 2.36% down.
CAC 40-   80.70 Points and 2.47% down.
FTSE 100- 58.67 Points and 1.03% down.
Italy 40- 510.41 Points and 3.43% down..
AEX 25-   4.76 Points and 1.53% down.
EU Stoxx 50- 60.73 Points and 2.58% down.

US Stock Markets

Dow Jones-136.99 Points and 1.05% down.
NASDAQ-  44.22 Points and 1.45% down.
S&P 500-  17.31 Points and 1.25% down.

Ameracan Stock Markets

MerVal-  60.60 Points and 2.36% down.
Bovespa- 952.40 Points and 1.51% down.
S&P TSX- 174.26 Points and 1.43% down.
IPC- 913.80 Points and 2.32% down.
500 Index-17.31 Points and 1.25% down.

Expected Asian markets reaction on 16-04-2012

Gap down opening in most of Asian markets will be seen on 16-04-2012 but Indian markets will not react so deeply because Indian markets have already reacted on 13-04-2012. Indian markets will firstly try to protect next Supports of on going correction. Just click following topic link for all the crucial supports and resistances of on going correction:-

Crucial Supports and Resistances of 36 sessions Correction

Crucial Supports and Resistances of 36 sessions Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

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36 sessions correction. Resistances and Supports within this correction are as follows:-

Resistances:

5- 5588-5625
4- 5418-5487
3- 5357-5377
2- 5318-5337
1- 5275-5305

Supports:

1- 5175-5236 
2- 5136-5167
3- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Crucial 3 Fibonacci Retracement Levels(5629-4532)

1- 38.2%- 5209(Aleady broken down)
2- 50.0%- 5080(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)
3- 61.8%- 4950(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)

Market capped between Supports and Resistances

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Apr 16 to Apr 20,2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1- Support between 5192-5225 on 10-04-2012 and 11-04-2012
2- Selling between 5275-5305 on 13-04-2012 
3- Sharp fall after negative news from Europe on 13-04-2012.
4- Panic bottom formation after sharp fall on 13-04-2012.
5- Mixed Patterns between 5200-5236 on 13-04-2012.
6- Weekly highest and lowest formation on 13-04-2012

Conclusions from 5 days intra day chart analysis 

Good consolidation in the middle of week and new weetly top formation even after poor performance by INFY on 13-04-2012. Firstly intraday selling developed between 5275-5305 and after down moves started after weak opening in European markets. As soon as negative news started to come from Europe then simultaneous sharp fall seen in Indian and European markets.

As last more than 1 hour trading with mixed patterns between 5200-5236 after panic bottom formation in sharp fall on 13-04-2012 therefore firstly sustaining beyond mixed Patterns range(5200-5236) will be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Strong resistances avove 5375 and next supports are between 5192-5225 and finally down moves first indication will be after sustaining below 5192 and confirmation will be after sustaining below 5136.

Market is capped between supports and resistances therefore firstly sideways moves are expected in the beginning of next week.

Panic bottom formation on 13-04-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5275-5305
2- Sharp fall after negative news from Europe.
3- Panic bottom formation after sharp fall.
4- Mixed Patterns between 5200-5236
5- Whole day trading between 5185.40-5306.75 with weekly highest and lowest formation.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly intraday selling developed between 5275-5305 after poor performance and below expectations guidance by INFY and after that sharp fall seen in which Nifty lost more than 70 points within 7 minutes.

Sharp fall resultant Panic bottom formation and after that more than 1 hour trading with mixed patterns between 5200-5236. As intraday support after panic bottom can not be ruled out therefore firstly sustaining beyond mixed Patterns range(5200-5236) will be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-Apr-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-Apr-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-Apr-2012 2634.23 2496.98 137.25

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-Apr-2012 1329.61 1809.29 -479.68

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(13-Apr-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle.
2- Sharp crash from intraday higher levels after European markets fall.
3- Closing near the lower levels of the day.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Nifty P/E Ratio(13-Apr-2012): 18.30

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1209
BSE Declines : 1617
NSE Advances :  501
NSE Declines :  940

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Apr)- -5150(-0.71%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Apr)- -93150(-1.58%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Apr)- +198850(+23.17%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Apr)- +221250(+3.84%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Apr)- +374550(+13.89%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Apr)- -284450(-4.23%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Apr)- +994150(+26.87%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Apr)- -526300(-13.81%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Apr)- +1627700(+30.47%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Apr)- +179550(+11.14%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,207.45(-69.40 Points & -1.32%)
Sensex- closed at 17,094.51(-238.11 Points & -1.37%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,579.60(-72.40 Points & -0.95%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,799.23(-43.02 Points & -0.63%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-04-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5401
R2 5353
R1 5280
Avg 5232
S1 5159
S2 5111
S3 5038

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5328     Trgt 2
H5 5301     Trgt 1
H4 5273     Long breakout
H3 5240     Go Short
H2 5229
H1 5218
L1 5195
L2 5184
L3 5173     Long
L4 5140     Short Breakout
L5 5112     Trgt 1
L6 5085     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-04-2012

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5437
R2 5383
R1 5302
Avg 5248
S1 5167
S2 5113
S3 5032

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5356     Trgt 2
H5 5325     Trgt 1
H4 5295     Long breakout
H3 5258     Go Short
H2 5245
H1 5233
L1 5208
L2 5196
L3 5183     Long
L4 5146     Short Breakout
L5 5116     Trgt 1
L6 5085     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-04-2012

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 10918
R2 10769
R1 10548
Avg 10399
S1 10178
S2 10029
S3 9808

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10699     Trgt 2
H5 10615     Trgt 1
H4 10530     Long breakout
H3 10428     Go Short
H2 10394
H1 10360
L1 10293
L2 10259
L3 10225     Long
L4 10123     Short Breakout
L5 10038     Trgt 1
L6  9954     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 16 to Apr 20,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5401
R2 5353
R1 5280
Avg 5232
S1 5159
S2 5111
S3 5038

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5328     Trgt 2
H5 5301     Trgt 1
H4 5273     Long breakout
H3 5240     Go Short
H2 5229
H1 5218
L1 5195
L2 5184
L3 5173     Long
L4 5140     Short Breakout
L5 5112     Trgt 1
L6 5085     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 16 to Apr 20,2012)

Weekly Levels

R3 11102
R2 10845
R1 10575
Avg 10318
S1 10048
S2 9791
S3 9521

Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10845     Trgt 2
H5 10720     Trgt 1
H4 10595     Long breakout
H3 10450     Go Short
H2 10402
H1 10354
L1 10257
L2 10209
L3 10161     Long
L4 10016     Short Breakout
L5  9891     Trgt 1
L6  9766     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(13-04-2012)

Sharp surge seen in US markets yesterday but European markets sharply down after weak opening today and neutralized positive impact of  US markets yesterday rally.

All the European markets are in Red and 4 markets are 1% to 2.25% down,its direct impact on Indian markets therefore steep falls after opening of European markets.

Nifty traded in positive zone more than 3 hours between gap of 09-04-2012(5287.90-5305.30) even after poor INFY results but could not digest the jolt from European markets and slipping to steep fall seen in Indian markets after European markets opening.

Sharp down moves and now following supports are hopes for Bulls:-

1- 5192-5205 
2- 5175
3- 5136

Mid-session Outlook-2(13-04-2012)

Market digested INFY poor performance and traded positive because good consolidations at lower levels but selling formations at higher level and starting to slip after European markets weak opening.

Intraday trading between gap of 09-04-2012(5287.90-5305.30) and after that slipping below 5287.90  means resistance from gap and until Nifty will not sustain above its top(5305.30) till then next up moves will not be considered.

Mid-session Outlook(13-04-2012)

Possibilities regarding gap of 09-04-2012(5287.90-5305.30) have been already updated in previous outlooks and Nifty is hovering it around between(5279-6306) since opening today.

Sustaining beyond mentioned gap will give confirmations to next trend as well as decisive big moves will be seen towards the direction of market settling down therefore:-

Firstly watch sustaining beyond mentioned gap(5287.90-5305.30) for the next big moves confirmation and expected that finally Nifty will settle and sustain above 5305.30 in the coming session because good consolidations at lower levels in last 4 sessions.

Post-open Outlook(13-04-2012)

Technically Indian markets are well prepared for a strong rally but sentiment is completely depressed due to below 10% guidance by Infosys after below expectation results. As Infosys is having negative impact on other heavy weight IT stocks performance also therefore all are weak and showing negative impact on benchmark Indices.

Gap up opening not seen because Infosys is more than 9% down and other IT stocks are also in Red. Although Indian markets are in Green and most stocks are also positive but island reversal pattern could not get consirmation because gap up opening above 5305.30(top of gap) not seen today.

Benchmark Indices are positive but CNX IT index is more than 5% down today morning and sustaining beyond gap of 09-04-2012(5287.90-5305.30) will be firstly watched for next trend confirmations. As Nifty is trading between mentioned gap immediately after opening today therefore just watch sustaining it beyond for next trend confirmation.

Rally after island reversal pattern formation

Technical Analysis and Research For 13-04-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart(12-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Gap formation on  09-04-2012.
2- Island formation in 4 days trading after gap down opening on 09-04-2012.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Apr 09 to Apr 12,2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 sessions intraday charts


1- Support between 5192-5225
2- Whole day consolidation at the top of 4 days on 12-04-2012.

Conclusions from 4 days intra day chart analysis 

Consolidations at the lower levels and at the top of last 4 days market also therefore Indian markets are well prepared for a rally after consolidation confirmations in last 4 days.


Nifty-Intra Day Chart(12-Apr-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation patterns formations in whole day trading
2- Whole day trading between 5261-5289

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told in Rally after Bulls conquering of 5263

1- Expected that finally rally will be seen
2- Last 2 sessions supports between 5192-5225 and sustaining above 5263 will be strong indication of rally after correction completion but follow up consolidation is also required to cross resistances between 5236-5263.

Whole day 38 Nifty points trading with intraday consolidation patterns between 5261-5289 with most of the time trading above 5263 seen on 12-Apr-2012.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Intraday charts analysis of last 4 sessions of after gap down opening on 09-04-2012,are showing lower levels as well as higher levels consolidations.

All the Asian markets are positive today morning after US markets strong closing yesterday and gap up opening is expected in Indian markets. Whole day trading and sustaining above 5305.30(gap highest) will be confirmation of island reversal pattern formation as well as strong rally in the coming sessions.

As last 4 sessions sessions intraday patterns conclusion is consolidations therefore finally rally is expected after Trend reversal island reversal pattern confirmation despite below expectations results of Infosys today..