Pre-open Outlook(21-02-2012)

US markets were closed yesterday but Dow's futures was more than 60 points up whole day yesterday therefore all European markets and some Asian markets closed with good gains yesterday. Greece package news led  high volatility in Dow's futures and in all the Asian markets today morning and Asian markets recovered from intraday lower levels in lines with up moves in Dow's futures

Global cues led intraday volatility may be seen in Indian markets also but good selling seen between 5588-5605 last Friday therefore very short term correction and down moves are expected in Indian markets and until Nifty will not sustain above 5605 till then next rally will not be considered.

Firstly Correction & then Crossing of next Resistances(5600-5700)

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook  (Feb 21 to Feb 24,2012)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD and Intra Day Charts,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 4 Charts therefore not being repeated. Just click following topic links and go through detailed analysis for trading in next week:-

1- Slipping below 5500 expected
2- 4 Strong Base Formations & Supports before 2012 Rally
3- Fibonacci Retracement Levels(6338-4532)
4- 3 Crucial Resistances & 4 Crucial Supports

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up after 20-12-2011 strong rally and Nifty tested next resistance range(5600-5700) on 17-02-2012. Nifty has surged 1075 in very short period therefore all the daily indicators are overbought and some are showing negative divergence also therefore minimum Very Short Term correction is technically due now.

Running Bullish rally is on and its characters are as follows:-

1- Market firstly require intraday selling patterns and then follow up selling as well as complete distribution patterns minimum on Daily charts then Short term correction will be seen.
2- One day intraday selling and intraday distribution patterns may result only intraday correction or very short term minor correction if follow up selling develops in the coming sessions.
3- Running Bullish markets complete its corrections in sideways moves and correction is completed at higher levels consolidation also.

Indian markets slipped from intraday higher levels on 17-12-2011 after higher levels intraday good selling and follow up selling on next trading day will mean eruption of above mentioned 3 types of correction in the next week.

As Indian markets have to cross next resistances between 5600-5700 and sentiment is boiling therefore minimum very short term correction is expected in the beginning of next week for cooling down of sentiment as well as in the process of preparation for crossing of next resistance. As last two sessions intraday selling patterns therefore very short term correction is very much possible in the beginning of next week.

Finally rally is expected after completion of possible very short term correction in next week.

Slipping below 5500 expected

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(17-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 4 Hours 45 Minutes selling between 5588-5605
2- Last more than 1 hour mixed intraday patterns between 5546-5573
3- Whole day trading between 5546-5605

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Good selling at higher levels on 17-02-2012 on the back of strong global cues and except this higher levels intrady selling was seen on 16-02-2012 also therefore down moves possibilities in the coming sessions have turned higher and expected that Nifty will slip below 5500 in the coming sessions.

4 Strong Base Formations & Supports before 2012 Rally

Nifty-EOD Chart(17-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- More than 13 months corrective wave and reversal in 13th Fibonacci number month.
2- Strong base formation in 122 Sessions side ways market between 4720-5229
3- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 13 months correction .
4- Bullish 'W' formation in 122 sessions sideways market

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As above mentioned 4 base formation therefore 1075 Nifty points forceful strong rally was seen after 20-12-2011. All trends are up Now and continuation of rally is expected. 1st impulsive Wave of rally is on and that whole Bullish story will be written in 2012 about which we told in following topic on 02-12 2011:-

New Historical Highs in 2012

We told exactly following lines in above topic. Just click above topic Link and verify on yours own:-

1- Fast rally toward all time high
2- New all time highs in 2012
3- Those higher levels which were considered in Jan 2008 and Jan 2011.  

Although tough to accept above mentioned possibilities at this moment amid most bearish and uncertain global sentiments but we are seeing high possibility of new historical highs in 2012 because Indian markets are reversing after completion of long term correction also.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(6338-4532)

Nifty-EOD Chart(17-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(6338-4532)

13.0%-4766
23.6%-4958
27.0%-5019
38.2%-5221
50.0%-5435(Already retraced)
61.8%-5648
70.7%-5808
76.4%-5911
78.6%-5951
88.6%-6132

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Long term correction begun on  05-11-2010 from 6338  and after more than 13 months correction Strong decisive more than 1000 Nifty points rally begun on 20-12-2011 from  4532. Fibonacci Retracement Levels are given above and 50% retracement has been completed. Next most crucial level is 61.8% which is falling within next resistance range(5600-5700) therefore sustaining beyond should be firstly watched in the coming week for next moves confirmations.

3 Crucial Resistances & 4 Crucial Supports

Nifty-EOD Chart(17-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Long Term correction begun in falling trend line on 05-11-2010 from 6338
2- Rally begun in rising trend line on 20-12-2011 from 4532.

3 Crucial Resistances

1- 5600-5700
2- 5800-5900
3- 6100-6200

4 Crucial Supports

1- 5323-5427
2- 5120-5190
3- 4995-5068
4- 4810-4900

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Strong rally is on after forceful cross over of corrective falling Trendline. As Nifty retraced after testing of next resistance range(5600-5700) on 17-02-2012 therefore more consolidation is required to cross it and sustain above 5700.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 17-Feb-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 17-Feb-2012 4126.95 3590.46 536.49

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 17-Feb-2012 2419.64 2642.71 -223.07

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green while other Indices remained mixed.
2- Doji Candle formation.
3- Most of the Indices slipped from intraday higher levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.25
Nifty P/E Ratio(17-Feb-2012):19.49

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1399
BSE Declines : 1597
NSE Advances : 679

NSE Declines : 791

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- -521050(-15.60%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- -646200(-8.99%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Feb)- -548900(-11.05%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Feb)- +598850(+10.50%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Feb)- -220250(-3.55%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Feb)- +2765350(+132.97%)


Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,564.30(+42.35 Points & +0.77%)
Sensex- closed at 18,289.35(+135.36 Points & +0.75% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,925.15(+49.75 Points & +0.63%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 7,116.49(-15.16 Points & -0.21%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-02-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5659
R2 5632
R1 5598
Avg 5571
S1 5537
S2 5510
S3 5476

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5625     Trgt 2
H5 5611     Trgt 1
H4 5597     Long breakout
H3 5580     Go Short
H2 5575
H1 5569
L1 5558
L2 5552
L3 5547     Long
L4 5530     Short Breakout
L5 5516     Trgt 1
L6 5502     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-02-2012

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5806
R2 5753
R1 5671
Avg 5618
S1 5536
S2 5483
S3 5401

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5724     Trgt 2
H5 5693     Trgt 1
H4 5663     Long breakout
H3 5626     Go Short
H2 5613
H1 5601
L1 5576
L2 5564
L3 5551     Long
L4 5514     Short Breakout
L5 5484     Trgt 1
L6 5453     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-02-2012

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 11421
R2 11321
R1 11221
Avg 11121
S1 11021
S2 10921
S3 10821

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11323     Trgt 2
H5 11277     Trgt 1
H4 11232     Long breakout
H3 11177     Go Short
H2 11158
H1 11140
L1 11103
L2 11085
L3 11067     Long
L4 11012     Short Breakout
L5 10966     Trgt 1
L6 10920     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 21 to Feb 24,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5934
R2 5770
R1 5679
Avg 5515
S1 5424
S2 5260
S3 5169

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5829     Trgt 2
H5 5766     Trgt 1
H4 5704     Long breakout
H3 5634     Go Short
H2 5610
H1 5587
L1 5540
L2 5517
L3 5493     Long
L4 5423     Short Breakout
L5 5361     Trgt 1
L6 5298     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 21 to Feb 24,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12273
R2 11738
R1 11406
Avg 10871
S1 10539
S2 10004
S3 9672

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12002     Trgt 2
H5 11776     Trgt 1
H4 11550     Long breakout
H3 11312     Go Short
H2 11232
H1 11153
L1 10994
L2 10915
L3 10835     Long
L4 10597     Short Breakout
L5 10371     Trgt 1
L6 10145     Trgt 2

NIFTY-Feb F&O-1st Selling of 17-02-2012-Trade

NIFTY(Feb Fut-Sell-Positional)SL-5616-TGT-5546-CMP-5599


NIFTY(Feb Put Option-Buy-Positional)SL-5616-TGT-5546-S.P.FOR Put-5500,5600(Feb Fut-Rates for all Options)-CMP-5599

Pre-Closing Outlook(17-02-2012)

Nifty traded more than 4 hours between 5578-5604 with intraday selling patterns therefore very short term correction is firstly expected in the beginning of next week.

Mid-session Outlook(17-02-2012)

Nifty moved above 5600 today and proved 100% accurate our following  predictions

Following line was told at 09:27 AM on 15-02-2012:-

Rally is very much on to test resistances between 5600-5700.

Following line was told in Pre-Closing Outlook(15-02-2012):-

Rally is very much on and testing of next resistances within 5600-5700 will be seen in the coming sessions.

Following line was told in Bulls are roaring like Lions on 15-02-2012:-

Rally is continued and expected that next resistances between 5600-5700 will be tested in the coming sessions.

That Bull Rally is very much on about which we are continuously telling since 22-12-2011. 

Nifty is trading between 5578-5604 for the last 4 hours today with mixed intraday patterns. Moves above 5604 may be slow because good resistances between 5600-5700 and slipping below 5578 will mean intraday/very short term correction only.

Breathless Bullish Tunes in Indian markets

Pre-open Outlook(17-02-2012)

Blasting Global Bull is on and all the counties are fully participating. Although correction is technically due and intraday selling and distribution pattern was also seen yesterday but Running Bull markets are on and its following characters have already been updated many times in last 2 months:-

1- Market firstly require intraday selling patterns and then follow up selling as well as complete distribution patterns minimum on Daily charts then Short term correction will be seen.
2- One day intraday selling and intraday distribution patterns may result only intraday correction or very short term minor correction if follow up selling develops in the coming sessions.
3- Running Bullish markets complete its corrections in sideways moves and correction is completed at higher levels consolidation also.

All the Global markets are blasting today therefore sentiment is upbeat and rally continuation will be seen after gap up opening. Although intraday selling and intraday distribution patterns were seen yesterday but rally continuation possibility after higher levels consolidation can not be ruled out.

Rally is on and its continuation will be expected today also and until above mentioned very short term/Short term correction formalities will not be fulfilled. Next resistances are within 5600-5700 and its testing possibility is being told for the 3/4 days,fresh consolidation or follow up selling within or near about this range will pave the ways of next big moves today and in the coming week.

Extremely heated sentiment today and profit booking develops also in such sentiments therefore this possibility should be kept in mind as well as fresh long positions should be created after sufficient intraday correction.

Correction is technically due

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 17-02-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(16-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 5484-5495
2- Selling between 5512-5521
3- Selling between 5512-5529
4- Bearish Rising Wedge formation in last hour.
5- Whole day trading between 5484-5531

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

All trends are up but overbought indicators are showing negative divergence also therefore correction is due in Indian markets. Market firstly require intraday selling patterns and then follow up selling as well as distribution patterns minimum on Daily charts then Short term correction will be seen. As intraday charts of today are showing selling patterns therefore only very short term minor correction will be considered if follow up selling develops tomorrow. Running Bullish markets complete correction in sideways moves and complete correction at higher levels also therefore today intraday selling and Bearish Rising Wedge pattern are not sufficient and follow up selling is must tomorrow for decisive down moves.

Global cues led moves seen in two previous sessions therefore today opening will depend on sentiment formation due to Global cues but finally sustaining beyond today trading range will give confirmation regarding:-

1- Sustaining above 5531 will mean On going rally continuation  
2- Sustaining below 5484 will mean firstly very short term correction and rally continuation after its completion. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Feb-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-Feb-2012 3251.56 3067.25 184.31

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-Feb-2012 1383.42 1773.74 -390.32