Mid-session Outlook(12--09-2011)

Following line was told today in Just watch Support Range(4948-5000) in Crashing Global Markets

1- "high risk of support range(4948-5000) breaking down"

2- "Nifty moving below 4948 will mean high possibility of sharp declines and retesting of 4720"

Intrtaday selling patterns at higher levels and crucial support range broken down also today. Nifty traded between 5931-4948 more than 100 minutes and slipped below 5831 also and now moving toward 4720..

July IIP Data 3.3 % VS 8.8%

Nifty moved below 4948 after most disappointing Numbers therefore more down moves will be seen.

Just watch Support Range(4948-5000) in Crashing Global Markets

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(12-09-2011)

Asian markets are markets are 1.5% to 3.15% down after US market more than 2.5% down closing therefore huge gap down opening and Red closing will be seen today. Weakness,Pull Back rally termination possibility and down moves confirmation levels were told again and again in all the Mid-session Outlook outlooks last Friday and following line was also told in Pre-Closing Outlook(09-09-2011) 

"As good selling developed today therefore more down moves are also possible in the coming week"

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 5 days Intra Day Chart(Sep 05 to Sep 09,2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Sep 05 to Sep 09,2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1- Support between 4948-5000
2- Resistance between 5120-5166

Conclusions

Nifty slipped from higher levels last Friday and closed below 3 days lowest. Next support is between 4948-5000 and Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between this range. All trends are down and follow up selling will mean breaking down possibility of mentioned support range.

All trends are down and on going Pull Back rally also could not moved up too much as well as stopped after less than 10% rise therefore mentioned support range should be watched  for confirmation of Pull Back Rally survival. Pull Back rally started from 4720 without much base formation and above mentioned range is only support therefore It is confirm that Nifty moving below 4948 will mean high possibility of sharp declines and retesting of 4720.

Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty faced resistance between next resistance range (5120-5220) and Gap resistance(5229-5323) is also validated therefore more down moves are confirm. Mentioned support range(4948-5000) is last hope and its survival should be firstly watched for deciding the fate of Pull Back Rally and next trend.

Most depressed sentiment today morning and high risk of support range(4948-5000) breaking down as well as market may be volatile also today.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(09-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Engulfing Bearish Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Red except CD.
3- CAG recommendation to Govt. news led weakness.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.11
Nifty P/E Ratio(09-Sep-2011): 18.26

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1207
BSE DECLINES : 1672
NSE ADVANCES : 502
NSE DECLINES : 929

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +390900(+7.93%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- -436000(-6.03%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +1504800(+34.46%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- -24250(-0.67%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Sep)- +1002300(+17.68%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Sep)- +167450(+10.33%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,059.45(-93.80 Points & -1.82%)
Sensex- closed at 16,866.97(-298.570 Points & -1.74% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,413.50(-99.30 Points & -1.32%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,304.02(-55.31 Points & -0.75%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 09-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 09-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 09-Sep-2011 2355.77 2783.44 -427.67

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 09-Sep-2011 1125.2 1040.13 85.07

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5249
R2 5206
R1 5132
Avg 5089
S1 5015
S2 4972
S3 4898

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5176     Trgt 2
H5 5149     Trgt 1
H4 5123     Long breakout
H3 5091     Go Short
H2 5080
H1 5069
L1 5048
L2 5037
L3 5026     Long
L4 4994     Short Breakout
L5 4968     Trgt 1
L6 4941     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5217
R2 5185
R1 5105
Avg 5073
S1 4993
S2 4961
S3 4881

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5136     Trgt 2
H5 5111     Trgt 1
H4 5086     Long breakout
H3 5055     Go Short
H2 5045
H1 5035
L1 5014
L2 5004
L3 4994     Long
L4 4963     Short Breakout
L5 4938     Trgt 1
L6 4913     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 10192
R2 10076
R1 9867
Avg 9751
S1 9542
S2 9426
S3 9217

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9984     Trgt 2
H5 9911     Trgt 1
H4 9837     Long breakout
H3 9748     Go Short
H2 9718
H1 9688
L1 9629
L2 9599
L3 9569     Long
L4 9480     Short Breakout
L5 9406     Trgt 1
L6 9333     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Sep 12 to Sep 16,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5397
R2 5283
R1 5171
Avg 5057
S1 4945
S2 4831
S3 4719

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5290     Trgt 2
H5 5236     Trgt 1
H4 5183     Long breakout
H3 5121     Go Short
H2 5100
H1 5079
L1 5038
L2 5017
L3 4996     Long
L4 4934     Short Breakout
L5 4881     Trgt 1
L6 4827     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Sep 12 to Sep 16,2011)

BankNifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10532
R2 10236
R1 9947
Avg 9651
S1 9362
S2 9066
S3 8777

BankNifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10263    Trgt 2
H5 10121    Trgt 1
H4 9980     Long breakout
H3 9819     Go Short
H2 9766
H1 9712
L1 9605
L2 9551
L3 9498     Long
L4 9337     Short Breakout
L5 9196     Trgt 1
L6 9054     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-09-2011)

When Asian markets were positive and Dow's Futures was more than 70 points up then then CAG recommendation to Govt. news was mentioned and cautious views were posted well before the beginning of Indian markets today and weakness was clearly told in told in Post-open Outlook also.

Double blow to Indian markets and Global markets also turned negative during Indian trading hours today:-

1-Dow's Futures was more than 70 points up in the morning but now more than 20 points down.
2- All the Asian markets lost early gains and closed in Red except Taiwan.
3- European markets also tumbled and .50% to 1.50% down.

Clear intraday selling patterns at higher levels today and market is sharply down. As good selling developed today therefore more down moves are also possible in the coming week.

Mid-session Outlook-2(09-09-2011)

Clearly told for sharp declines below 5107 and that was seen also.

CAG recommendation to Govt. news impact was told before the beginning of market in Pre-Open Market Outlook and it is being seen today. Nifty failed to sustain between resistance range after mentioned negative news and slipped below therefore risk of Pull Back rally termination.

Mid-session Outlook(09-09-2011)

Following line was written and importance of 5107 was told in Post-open Outlook-2 today

Nifty consolidated nicely between 5107-5122 yesterday and sustaining below 5107 will mean failing to cross resistance range of 5120-5220 and that will be sharp down moves confirmation also.

Nifty retraced from 5107.55 and then traded at 5128. Just keep in mind above lines which were told about 5107 and get next decisive moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook-2(09-09-2011)

Sentiment was most contradictory before opening today because Dow'Futures was more than 70 points up and all the Asian markets were trading with good gains but CAG recommendation to Govt. news negative impact on Indian market was understood and 30 points first indication range of 5140-5170 was updated in Pre-Open Outlook and Nifty traded within given range(5142-5163) in first 55 minutes today.

RIL is 1.4% down and Asian markets also slipped from intra day higher levels with Dow'Futures down to +40. Nifty is also below 5140 and it is strong indication of weakness. Nifty consolidated nicely between 5107-5122 yesterday and sustaining below 5107 will mean failing to cross resistance range of 5120-5220 and that will be sharp down moves confirmation also.

Post-open Outlook(09-09-2011)

As sentiment dampening CAG  recommendation to Govt. news therefore its impact and expected trading levels were updated well before the beginning of today market. Nifty is trading within mentioned levels since opening today. Global markets are strong but Indian markets are almost flat due to mentioned news.

Indian markets will preapre for next moves within mentioned levels and its break out will be net result of fresh positions formation within mentioned range. Indian markets are showing weakness today and confirmation will be sustaining beyond mentioned levels.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-09-2011)

Indian markets consolidated nicely yesterday  and technically well prepared for continuation of Pull Back rally but sentiment is depressed in Indian markets today morning due to following negative news which is involving Central Govt. and RIL:-

CAG asks govt to review 10 contracts

RIL is always trend decider for Indian markets and above news is involving Union Govt. also therefore it may hamper sentiment today. Indian markets are trading between resistance range of 5120-5220 and consolidation as well as follow up buying is must for fresh up moves after above negative news.

Asian markets are positively reacting Obama package and strong. Dow's Futures is also more than 70 points up since morning today but Indian markets will react CAG report also. Following levels break out should be watched first for next moves confirmations in the light of mixed sentiments in Indian markets:-

1- 5140-5170(First indication)
2- 5120-5220(Confirmation)

Above mentioned ranges break out will decide the depth and gravity of above news and will give decisive direction to Indian markets.

Pull Back Rally next Target at 5335

Technical Analysis and Research For 09-09-2011 & Next Week

Nifty-EOD Chart(08-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling Trendline Cross Over.
2- Sub Wave-1 Started from 4720 and terminated at 5113 after gaining 393 points.
3- Corrective Sub Wave-2 commenced and it completed at 4942 
3- Sub Wave-3 begun from 4942 and 100% gains(393 points) of Wave-1 means target at 5335.

Conclusions

As Indian markets move up nicely after good consolidations today therefore expected that on going rally will remain continued in the coming sessions as well as testing possibility of 5335 can not be ruled out also.

Testing and crossing 5335 means will mean:-

1- Crossing of Inverted Head & Shoulders Neckline at 5230 and it will be trend reversal and strong up move confirmation.
2- Gap Resistance created on 05-08-2011 and its higher level is at 5323. Filling of this gap will mean gaining strength after crossing resistance.
3- Intermediate term trend turning up.
4- Crosing 55 Day EMA.

Sub Wave-3 is on after completion of very short term correction and also moving up after consolidation within crucial resistance range(5120-5220). Once crossing 5220 will mean sharp surge and high possibility of 5335 testing.

As good consolidation till today and almost 50% of the resistance range(5120-5220) with intraday consolidation patterns therefore  expected that Nifty will test 5335 in the coming week.

Indian markets are technically mature for 5335 but if Global markets crash then view will be cautious. 

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 09-09-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(08-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between- 5107-5122(told 3 times during trading hours today)
2- Minor consolidation between 5146-5166 also.
3- Whole day trading between 5102-5169

Conclusions

Pull Back rally is on and fresh rally started after 4 days correction on 06-09-2011. Rally is moving within resistance range(5120-5220) therefore consolidation is required before each rise and it was seen today also. As today rally was expected therefore following line was also told yesterday in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(08-09-2011)

Pull Back rally is on and more up moves are demand of on going rally therefore expected that follow up buying will be seen in the coming sessions and markets will move up

Nifty is trading between resistance range(5120-5220) and consolidation is required for an upmove therefore firstly intraday consolidations and then up moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Trend Reversal Bullish Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern Formation

Technical Analysis and Research For 09-09-2011 & Next Week

Nifty-EOD Chart(08-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Trend Reversal Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern under construction
2- Neckline at 5230

Conclusions

Trend Reversal Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern is under construction,its Neckline is at 5230. Next crucial resistance is just below it within 5120-5220 and Nifty consolidated nicely between this range today.

Pull Back rally is on and expected that follow up consolidation will be seen in the coming sessions and sharp rally will be seen after crossing of Neckline at 5230.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 08-Sep-2011 2228.54 2214.36 14.18

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 08-Sep-2011 853.19 1119.8 -266.61