Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5806
R2 5754
R1 5664
Avg 5612
S1 5522
S2 5470
S3 5380

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5716     Trgt 2
H5 5684     Trgt 1
H4 5652     Long breakout
H3 5613     Go Short
H2 5600
H1 5587
L1 5560
L2 5547
L3 5534     Long
L4 5495     Short Breakout
L5 5463     Trgt 1
L6 5431     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11722
R2 11578
R1 11344
Avg 11200
S1 10966
S2 10822
S3 10588

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11489     Trgt 2
H5 11403     Trgt 1
H4 11317     Long breakout
H3 11213     Go Short
H2 11179
H1 11144
L1 11075
L2 11040
L3 11006     Long
L4 10902     Short Breakout
L5 10816     Trgt 1
L6 10730     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(26-07-2011)

RBI 440 Volts interest rates shock to Indian markets and its impact will be decided through sustaining beyond 5600. Nifty traded most on the time below 5600 after Credit policy announcement and also closing below but if Nifty sustains below 5600 tomorrow again then Indian markets will enter into range bound mode between 5350-5600.

Just watch sustaining beyond 5600 tomorrow for nrxt moves confirmations. 

RBI raises key policy rates by 50 bps

Mid-session Outlook(26-07-2011)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday raised repo rate by 50 basis points to 8 per cent and reverse repo to 7 per cent in its policy meet to arrest rising inflation.

This step is big jolt to Indian industry and stock markets therefore sharp fall was seen. Although such huge fall was unexpected but minor fall was seen and following precautionary lines were precautionary lines were posted at 08:07:00 AM today:-

"sentiment is heated therefore voltality after minor profit booking may be seen. As markets have to trade between resistances therefore fresh consolidation is must and long positions should be created after intraday consolidations"

RBI today step is problemsome for fundamentals and firstly sustaining beyond 5600 should be watched for next moves first indication.

Bullish markets 8 confirmations in Charts on 25-07-2011

Technical Analysis and Research For 26-07-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(25-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

8 Bullish patterns in charts are as follows

1- 10 Days trading range(5497-5654) broken out confirmation on 25-07-2011.
2- 5 months range(5350-5600) broken out confirmations on 25-07-2011.
3- Sustaining above all crucial EMAs(8,21,55,200) confirmation.
4- All trends turning up confirmation.
5- Daily MACD upward cross over.
6- Weekly MACD upward cross over
7  Falling Trendline Break Out.
8- Pennant Break out.

Next resistances are as follows

1- 5675-5699(Last one hour mixed intraday patterns and today follow up buying/selling will decide next immediate moves)
2- 5700-5740(Resistance and consolidation requires for crossing 5740)

Conclusions

Yesterday rally gave Bullish markets beginning confirmations and should be expected that market will consolidate near about above mentioned resistances as well as cross 5740 in the coming sessions.

Asian markets are little positive today morning therefore firstly range bound market expected between 5665-5700. RBI credit policy today and its announcements may also show decisive direction to Indian markets but voltality possibility can not be ruled out.

Positive closing is expected after consolidations between 5665-5700 but sentiment is heated therefore voltality after minor profit booking may be seen. As markets have to trade between resistances therefore fresh consolidation is must and long positions should be created after intraday consolidations.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 26-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(25-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5618-5650
2- Mixed patterns between 5675-5699

Conclusions

Most of the time intraday consolidation but last one hour mixed patterns between 5675-5699 just below resistance range. Today rally gave many bullish markets confirmations therefore expected that Nifty will consolidate around next resistance of 5700-5740 and finally cross 5740 in the coming sessions.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Jul-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Jul-2011 2608.84 2293.12 315.72

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Jul-2011 1511.75 1287.5 224.25

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- Rally despite whole day negative global cues.
3- All the Indices closed in Green except FMCG.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Jul-2011): 20.71

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1609
BSE DECLINES : 1292
NSE ADVANCES : 836
NSE DECLINES : 589

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- -275650(-4.35%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +1996900(+22.48%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +798950(+9.12%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +3375950(+64.24%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,680.30(+46.35 Points & +0.82%)
Sensex- closed at 18,871.29(+148.99 Points & +0.80% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,214.90(+61.00 Points & +0.75%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,505.42(+41.93 Points & +0.50%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5798
R2 5749
R1 5714
Avg 5665
S1 5630
S2 5581
S3 5546

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5764     Trgt 2
H5 5745     Trgt 1
H4 5726     Long breakout
H3 5703     Go Short
H2 5695
H1 5687
L1 5672
L2 5664
L3 5656     Long
L4 5633     Short Breakout
L5 5614     Trgt 1
L6 5595     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5820
R2 5764
R1 5727
Avg 5671
S1 5634
S2 5578
S3 5541

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5784     Trgt 2
H5 5762     Trgt 1
H4 5741     Long breakout
H3 5715     Go Short
H2 5707
H1 5698
L1 5681
L2 5672
L3 5664     Long
L4 5638     Short Breakout
L5 5617     Trgt 1
L6 5595     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11687
R2 11566
R1 11482
Avg 11361
S1 11277
S2 11156
S3 11072

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11606     Trgt 2
H5 11559     Trgt 1
H4 11511     Long breakout
H3 11455     Go Short
H2 11436
H1 11417
L1 11380
L2 11361
L3 11342     Long
L4 11286     Short Breakout
L5 11238     Trgt 1
L6 11191     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(25-07-2011)

Up moves possibility was told in all the out looks which were updated for today trading and same was seen today despite deep Red US Futures and Asian markets. Nifty tested 5700 today and next resistance range is 5700-5740.

Firstly Indian markets out performed global crashing cues today morning and then gave confirmation of last 10 days range upward break out and sustained above 200 Days EMA therefore all trends are up.

Rally is on but market requires some more consolidation to cross resistance range of 5700-5740.Expected that Nifty will finally move above 5740 after more consolidation in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(25-07-2011)

As last 4 hours intraday buying was seen on 22-07-2011 therefore up moves possibility was told in all the outlooks and NIfty moved up also today to 5651.85 despite Dow's Futures is more than 130 points down and all the Asian trading in markets deep Red.

Resistance seen at higher levels between 5640-5650 therefore short covering possibility between this range can not be ruled out and next up moves will be considered above 5650. Next expected trading range is 5600-5640 and sustainiing beyond this range will be next very short term move confirmations.

It has to be specify that Indian markets are outperforming all the global markets but will be the best to get confirmation through sustaining beyond 5600-5650.

Pre-open Outlook(25-07-2011)

Dow's Futures is more than 100 points down and in reaction all the Asian markets are trading in Red today morning therefore weak opening will be seen in Indian markets. I told many times earlier and again repeating today that flood of contradicting global cues and violent voltality in European and US markets therefore big uncertainity and most cautious approach is required.

5600 is most crucial point and Nifty is hovering it around for the last 10 sessions. Nifty traded 4 hours above it between 5606-5636 last Friday therefore sustaining beyond this range will be first strong indication of next move. As consolidation seen between mentioned range therefore finally sustaining above 5636 is expected but deep debt crisis in USA and global uncertainity therefore next trend confirmation is must through sustaining beyond 5606-5636.

Trend Deciding 5 Levels

Technical Analysis and Research For 25-07-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(22-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

5 Crucial Levels

1- 5200- 2 Times Panic bottom support
2- 5350- Strong support
3- 5600- Most crucial and all the trends deciding level
4- 5740- Minor resistance
5- 5900- Strong resistance

Conclusions

Nifty traded most of the time between 5350-5600 in last 8 months and 5600 is the most crucial point because all the important EMAs(8,21,55,200) are near this point and it produces resistance many times in last 8 months.

Nifty is hovering around 5600 for the last 10 sessions and finally sustaining beyond this 5600 will be next move strong confirmation. As consolidation seen near 5600 therefore expected that Nifty will finally sustain above 5600 and fresh rally will be seen.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 days Intra Day Chart(Ju1 11 to Jul 22,2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Ju1 11 to Jul 22,2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 10 sessions intraday charts

1- Last 10 days trading range 5497-5653 and closing is at 5634 on 22-07-2011
2- Consolidation between 5505-5581 in last 10 sessions.
3- Last 4 hours intraday consolidations between 5606-5636 but little selling at higher levels on 22-07-2011.

Conclusions

As 4 hours consolidation patterns at the top of last 10 sessions range and also closing near the top of last 10 days therefore posssibility of fresh rally turned higher last Friday and confirmation is sustaining above 5636.

Falling Trendline broken out 6th time on 22-07-2011

Technical Analysis and Research For 25-07-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(22-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Falling trend line begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338 and and since then Nifty tested and retraced 5 times earlier. Nifty again tested it on 22-07-2011 and hovered around 4 hours between 5606-5636 with intraday consolidation patterns

Sustaining above 5636 will be next rally first strong indication,as consolidation seen near it between 5606-5636 on 22-07-2011 therefore its break out and finally sustaining above possibility turned higher. 

Rally confirmation level is sustaining beyond 5636 within couple of sessions.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 25-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(22-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Buying between- 5568-5581
2- Last 4 hours intraday consolidations between 5606-5636 but little selling at higher levels.

Conclusions

Nifty traded last 4 hours between resistance range of 5606-5636 and intraday charts are suggesting most of the time consolidations. Although minor selling felt at higher levels but expected that Nifty will finally sustain above 5636 and rally will be seen in the next week.

As news based violent global voltality is being seen therefore  sustaining beyond 5606-5636 will be watched first for next move confirmations.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 22-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 22-Jul-2011 2718.66 2273.75 444.91

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 22-Jul-2011 1329.71 1086.66 243.05

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(22-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Green except Consumer durables.
3- Closing at last 10 days highest.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.93
Nifty P/E Ratio(22-Jul-2011): 20.57

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1686
BSE DECLINES : 1244
NSE ADVANCES : 913
NSE DECLINES : 498

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- -2205400(-32.37%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +299150(+2.74%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- -3242100(-33.55%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +2815500(+44.59%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- -781700(-7.91%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +2557750(+93.41%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,633.95(+92.35Points & +1.67%)
Sensex- closed at 18,722.30(+286.11 Points & +1.55% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,153.90(+105.75 Points & +1.31%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,463.49(+69.19 Points & +0.82%)