Nifty-Elliot Waves Structure

Nifty-Elliot Waves Structure Daily Chart(20-05-2011)

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Conclusions

Nifty moved below Wave-5 trend line but consolidated 4 days below it and closed exactly at Wave -5 trend line after trading above it last Friday therefore Wave 5 is still intact and its breaking down confirmation point will be slipping below 5401.

As Wave-5 is still intact therefore upmoves hopes are still alive.

Nifty-Averages and Indicators Analysis

Nifty-Averages and Very short term Indicators of Daily Chart(20-05-2011):-

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Nifty is sustaining below 50 and 200 DaY EMA(5616) for the last 14 sessions therefore long term trend is down, both average lines are kissing and 50 DaY EMA downward crossing 200 DaY EMA will be more down moves confirmations.

Very Short term Indicators Slow Stochastic and William %R have moved above from Overbought zone after positive divergence therefore Indicating Upmoves in Short term.

Conclusions

Strong indications of short term up moves

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5609
R2 5563
R1 5524
Avg 5478
S1 5439
S2 5393
S3 5354

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5571     Trgt 2
H5 5552     Trgt 1
H4 5532     Long breakout
H3 5509     Go Short
H2 5501
H1 5493
L1 5478
L2 5470
L3 5462     Long
L4 5439     Short Breakout
L5 5419     Trgt 1
L6 5400     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5622
R2 5572
R1 5528
Avg 5478
S1 5434
S2 5384
S3 5340

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  5578   Trgt 2
H5  5557    Trgt 1
H4  5535    Long breakout
H3  5509    Go Short
H2  5501
H1  5492
L1  5475
L2  5466
L3  5458    Long
L4  5432    Short Breakout
L5  5410    Trgt 1
L6  5389    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 10962
R2 10853
R1 10759
Avg 10650
S1 10556
S2 10447
S3 10353

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  10871   Trgt 2
H5  10824   Trgt 1
H4  10777   Long breakout
H3  10721   Go Short
H2  10703
H1  10684
L1  10647
L2  10628
L3  10610   Long
L4  10554   Short Breakout
L5  10507   Trgt 1
L6  10460   Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(23-05 to 27-05-2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5692
R2 5617
R1 5551
Avg 5476
S1 5410
S2 5335
S3 5269

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5629     Trgt 2
H5 5596     Trgt 1
H4 5563     Long breakout
H3 5524     Go Short
H2 5511
H1 5498
L1 5473
L2 5460
L3 5447     Long
L4 5408     Short Breakout
L5 5375     Trgt 1
L6 5342     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 20-May-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-May-2011 2255.82 2437.37 -181.55

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-May-2011 1406.18 1007.99 398.19

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed positive except FMCG.
2- White Candle
3- Whole day consolidations except minor profit booking at higher levels.
4- Revival of upmoves expectations after sustaining above 5444.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.85
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-05-2011): 20.20

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1548
BSE DECLINES : 1288
NSE ADVANCES : 834
NSE DECLINES : 560

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(20-05-2011)- -2892950(-41.97%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(20-05-2011)- +760750(+9.56%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(20-05-2011)- -1169900(-14.58)
Nifty- 5500 PE(20-05-2011)- +1690550(39.15%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(20-05-2011)- +146700(+1.83)
Nifty- 5600 PE(20-05-2011)- +581100(+22.48)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,486.35(+58.25 Points & +1.07%)
Sensex- closed at 18,326.09(+184.69 Points & +1.02% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,873.15 (+40.25 Points & +0.51%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,185.18(+39.61 Points & +0.49%)

Pre-closing Outlook(20-05-2011) & Impact of Kanimozhi arrest on Indian Stock Markets

As rally were expected therefore up moves confirmation levels were given in Mid-session Outlook. Confirmation of Nifty sustaining above 5444 has been achieved and with this Bullish markets building up hopes also survived after Oxygen therapy at 5400. Nifty crossed 5495 but slipped also sharply and it seems that it may be psychological impact on Kanimozhi bail rejection and resultant fear of DMK withdrawing support from UPA Govt. As per my view DMK will not withdraw support and if happens also then there UPA will be able to arrange required support.

Intraday patterns are showing consolidation except minor selling between 5505-5517  and next resistance is between 5520-5530. In this manner now next resistance range is 5505-5530. As strong base formations at crucial levels near 5400 and Nifty has sustained above 5444 therefore expected that Indian markets will first consolidate between 5444-5500 in next week and then fresh upmoves will be seen.

No impact of Kanimozhi arrest will be seen on Indian markets in next week 

Mid-session Outlook(20-05-2011)

Following line was told in Post-open Outlook today:-

"5480-5495 is next resistance and sustaining above 5495 will mean strong rally"

Nifty traded about 3 hours within mentioned resistance range and slipped. Pull Back rally was expected and it has been seen. Now next moves will be decided according to coming hours intraday charts formations. For next upmoves sustaining above 5444 and crossing 5495 are confirmation levels.

Post-open Outlook(20-05-2011)

upmoves,Bounce back and Pull Back Rally  possibilities were told more than 10 times in last 2/3 days. As per my view good support and base formations st lower levels therefore expected that Nifty will sustain above 5444. 5480-5495 is next resistance and sustaining above 5495 will mean strong rally.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 19-05-2011-COVERING

NIFTY MAY F & O(BOUGHT ON 19-05-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5481

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 19-05-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY MAY F &; O(BOUGHT ON 19-05-2011)-PLACE TRAILLING STOP LOSS AT 5467 AND HOLD-CMP-5475

Pull Back Rally on Cards

Tomorrow Market(20-05-2011) Outlook,Technical Analysis & Research

Detailed analysis and reasons for Pull Back Rally expectations have been posted in Following topics:-

1- Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-05-2011)
2- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(19-05-2011)
3- Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 days Intra Day Charts(May 17 to May 19,2011)

Conclusions

All trends are down and Nifty sustained 3 days below 5444 but last 3 sessions patterns are suggesting lower levels consolidations and base formations therefore minimum Pull back rally expected in the coming sessions and expected that Nifty will consolidate tomorrow  within last 2 days trading range(5402-5455)and after that upmoves will be seen in the coming week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-May-2011

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 days Intra Day Charts(May 17 to May 19,2011)

Nifty- 3 days Intra Day Chart:-

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Main Features

1- Water Falling pattern on 17-05-2011
2- 2 Days good consolidations between 5402-5431
3- 2 Days minor distributions between 5436-5455

Conclusions

Good consolidations and base formations in last 2 days between 5402-5431 and minor distributions between 5436-5455. Nifty moved down on 17-05-2011 in Water Falling pattern and it means that down moves without much selling.

Good consolidations in last 2 days therefore expected that minor resistances will be crossed and pull back rally will be seen in the coming sessions.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-May-2011 2113.76 22151.17 -37.41

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-May-2011 1127.33 994.99 132.34

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(19-05-2011)

-Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(19-05-2011):-

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Main Features

1- Nifty trading range- 5411-5441
2- Whole day Intraday consolidation between 5412-5431

Conclusions

Minor intraday selling but whole day Intraday consolidation between 5412-5431 therefore today intraday charts are showing strong possibility of up moves tomorrow.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Nifty trading range- 5411-5441
2- Confirm consolidation between 5412-5431 today.
3- Indices closing is mixed but intraday charts of most of the Indices charts are showing consolidations.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.74(Minimum in May 2011)
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-05-2011): 20.20

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1060
BSE DECLINES : 1716
NSE ADVANCES :  467
NSE DECLINES :  924

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(26-05-2011)- +625700(+9.77%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(26-05-2011)- +500900(+6.41%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(26-05-2011)- +299600(+3.66%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(26-05-2011)- -478050(-9.73%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,428.10(+7.50 Points & +0.14%)
Sensex- closed at 18,141.40(+55.20 Points & +0.31%% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,832.90 (-28.65 Points & -0.36%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,145.57(-44.00 Points & -0.54)

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 10783
R2 10721
R1 10633
Avg 10571
S1 10483
S2 10421
S3 10333

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10695    Trgt 2
H5 10661    Trgt 1
H4 10627    Long breakout
H3 10586    Go Short
H2 10572
H1 10558
L1 10531
L2 10517
L3 10503    Long
L4 10462    Short Breakout
L5 10428    Trgt 1
L6 10394    Trgt 2