Pre-open Outlook(10-05-2011)

Asian markets are quiet therefore sentiment is calm today morning. Flat opening and firstly trading betwen 5500-5570 will be seen. Fresh consolidation expected between mentioned range and also expected that Nifty will finally move above 5570 and short term up moves will start in the coming couple of sessions.

For precaution and trend confirmation 5500-5570 break out should be watched.

Detailed analysis have been posted in following topics and not being repeated;-

1- Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)

2- Indian Stock Markets Report(09-05-2011)

3- Technical Analysis and Research For 10-05-2011

Tomorrow Outlook(10-05-2011)

Detailed analysis have been posted in following topics and not being repeated;-

1- Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)
2- Indian Stock Markets Report(09-05-2011)
3- Technical Analysis and Research For 10-05-2011

4 Days range bound trading(5500-5570) means preperation for big moves. Clear supports at lower levels today but higher levels mixed intraday patterns also between 5545-5570 therefore Nifty will trade near about this range first.

Fresh consolidation expected near about 5560 tomorrow and expected that Nifty will finally move above 5570 in the coming couple of sessions short term up moves will also commence in the coming couple of sessions.

For precaution and trend confirmation 5500-5570 break out should be watched first.

Technical Analysis and Research For 10-05-2011

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- Nifty is below all the averages(8,21,55,200 Day EMA) and showing oversold market. Nifty is below 200 Day EMA for the last 4 sessions therefore indicating weakness.

2-Bollinger Band- Nifty is trading at Lower Band for the last 4 sessions and showing oversold markets therefore indicaing an upmove mininmun upto middle line of Band which is at 5681.

3-MACD- MACD Line is below Average Line and both lines are near equalibrium line. Gap between both lines increased. As clear divergence between both lines therefore an upmove is expected to converge both lines.

4-ROC & RSI- Started to move up from oversold zone therefore indicating small upmove possibility

5-Slow Stochastic & William %R- Both very short term indicators have started to move up from oversold zone and indicating very short term up move.

Conclusions (After Putting All indicators Together)

All the indicators are telling bounce back and minimum very short term upmoves possibility.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(09-05-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Intraday support between 5507-5530.
2- Mixed Patterns between 5545-5570

Conclusions

Nifty traded most of the time between 5500-5560 in last 4 sessions and Nifty traded between 5507-5570 today with lower levels buying and higher levels mixed patterns. Now 5500-5570 is next moves confirmation range.

Conclusions (After Putting Daily Indicators and Intraday charts analysis together)

Next trading range is 5500-5570 and indicators are suggesting bounce back and minimum very short term upmoves possibility. Confirm consolidation between 5507-5530 today but mixed patterns patterns between 5545-5570 also.

Last 4 sessions trading range is 5500-5570 and Indian markets require more preparation for next move decisive break out within this range. Break out and sustaining beyond mentioned range will give following confirmations:-

1- Move below 5500 will be first indication and sustaing below 5444 will be bear market confirmation and in that situation 5178 will be possible.


2- Move above 5570/5579 will be up trend indication and confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA(5628),it will mean range bound Indian markets between 5444-5944

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 09-May-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 09-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 09-May-2011 1935.01 1738.59 196.42

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 09-May-2011 500.92 626.7 -125.78

Indian Stock Markets Report(09-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows:-

1- Trading Range 5506-5570
2- Lower level intraday support and base formation between 5507-5530.
3- Flat closing in range bound market.
4- Market followed last 3 sessions range(5500-5560)and traded most time within that range.


Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.79
Nifty P/E Ratio(06-05-2011): 20.67

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1281
BSE DECLINES : 1520
NSE ADVANCES :  578
NSE DECLINES :  824

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- -366000(-9.63%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)- +1310450(+26.97%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- -96600(-1.86%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +367750(+/-00.00%)


Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,551.10(-0.35 Points & -0.01%)
Sensex- closed at 18,528.96(+10.15 Points & +0.05% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,953.75(-11.65 Points & -0.15%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,342.80(+0.22 Points & +9.70%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5674
R2 5630
R1 5590
Avg 5546
S1 5506
S2 5462
S3 5422

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5635     Trgt 2
H5 5616     Trgt 1
H4 5597     Long breakout
H3 5574     Go Short
H2 5566
H1 5558
L1 5543
L2 5535
L3 5527     Long
L4 5504    Short Breakout
L5 5485     Trgt 1
L6 5466     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5677
R2 5630
R1 5594
Avg 5547
S1 5511
S2 5464
S3 5428

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5641     Trgt 2
H5 5622     Trgt 1
H4 5603     Long breakout
H3 5580     Go Short
H2 5573
H1 5565
L1 5550
L2 5542
L3 5535     Long
L4 5512     Short Breakout
L5 5493     Trgt 1
L6 5474     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11522
R2 11381
R1 11232
Avg 11091
S1 10942
S2 10801
S3 10652

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11376     Trgt 2
H5 11309     Trgt 1
H4 11242     Long breakout
H3 11162     Go Short
H2 11136
H1 11109
L1 11056
L2 11029
L3 11003     Long
L4 10923     Short Breakout
L5 10856     Trgt 1
L6 10789     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(09-05-2011)

Nifty traded most of the time between 5500-5560 and intraday support seen st lower levels between 5507-5530. Last 2 hours trading between 5550-5570 and trading patterns are mixed. Nifty below 5550 will mean 5500-5550 and sustaining above 5570 will be first indication of rally.

Nifty slipped from day's higher levels and trading below 5550 but it is not selling confirmation beyween 5550-5570,as patterns between this range are mixed therefore it will be better to wait for confirmation from sustaining beyond in the coming sessions..

I told for trading between 5500-5560 in all the outlooks for today market  and Nifty traded between this range most of the time and also closing within this range today

Intraday support and base formations signals today and sustaining beyond 5550-5570 will be next moves first indications.

Mid-session Outlook-2(09-05-2011)

Sharp declines immediately after opening today but bearish views were not never  posted and on the contrary cleatly told that  view is not Bearish and also told that intraday patterns are suggesting consolidations

My trading hours statements are as followd:-

Following line was told at 10:02:00 AM today:-

trading in Red since opening today but view is not Bearish.

Following line was told at 10:41:00 AM today:-

Steep fall today low is at 5502. View will be bearish below 5500

Following line was told at 12:50:00 PM today:-

Nifty is trading in Red for the last 3 hours but intraday patterns are suggesting consolidations

Sharp recovery and Nifty is more that quarter pct up at this moment and Nifty is above 5560 and if sustains then upside break out confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(09-05-2011)

Following lines were told in Weekly and same views were expressed in all the outlooks written for today and this week trading;-

"It is very much clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 Days Intra Day Charts(04-05-2011 to 06-05-2011) that 3 sessions most time trading range is 5500-5560 and intraday patterns within this range are mixed, Nifty will first trade in next week within or little above/below mentioned range and prepare for next moves"

When Nifty was trading near today lows then also following lines were told:-

"Steep fall today low is at 5502. View will be bearish below 5500"

Nifty is trading in Red for the last 3 hours but intraday patterns are suggesting consolidations. Confirmation levels(5500-5560) should be watched for next moves condiemations.

Post-open Outlook-2(09-05-2011)

Indian markets are slipping sharply from higher levels immediately and trading in Red since opening today but view is not Bearish and will be bearish after confirmations and sustaining below 5500. Steep fall today low is at 5502. View will be bearish below 5500 and in that situation next target will be 5178.

Post-open Outlook(09-05-2011)

Indian markets underperformed global markets after positive closing today. Following lines were told in all the outlooks for today trading:-

"3 sessions most time trading range is 5500-5560 and intraday patterns within this range are mixed, Nifty will first trade in next week within or little above/below mentioned range and prepare for next moves"

As told above again and again and same is being seen immediately after opening today and Nifty is trading between 5500-5560. Let market prepare for next moves and confirmarion will be break out and sustaining beyond 5500-5560. Conclusions from Micro Analysis of today Intra Day Charts will be posted after next moves confirmations.

Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels immediately after opening and trading in Red since opening today but view is not Bearish.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-05-2011

Technicals and conclusions for coming week markets have already been explained in details in following 4 topics therefore not being repeated:-

1- Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)
2- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Charts
3- Weekly Chart Analysis
4- Trend Decider Pennant Pattern

As last 3 sessions narrow range market(5500-5560) therefore its break out and sustaining beyond will certainly be crucial development and 5%  decisive moves will be expected in the direction of break out side.

Global markets and US Futures are in Green and sentiment is  positive today morning therefore expected that Nifty will first trade between 5560-5600. Nifty sustaining above 5560 today will be up side break out strong indication and rally confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

Positive closing expected today after Green opening and most of the time positive zone trading.

Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)

Technicals of Indian markets have already been posted in following 3 topics therefore just click following topics and understand Indian markets:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Charts
2- Weekly Chart Analysis
3- Trend Decider Pennant Pattern

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All Bullish barriers have been broken down in last 7 sessions sharp down moves. All trends are down and 200 Day EMA has been broken down as well. 5th impulsive wave is on within continuation Pennant Pattern formations. Nifty is hovering around at lower levels existing Rising trend line of Pennant for the last 3 sessions with low at 5444 and high at 5579. Until complete consolidation will not happen till then market will not reverse. Firstly complete consolidations and after that sustaining above minimum one resistance is must for an up move confirmations. Nifty traded most of the time with mixed trading patterns between 5500-5560 in last 3 sessions,break out and sustaining beyond this range will give following confirmations:-

1- Nove below 5500 will be first indication and sustaing below 5444 will be bear market confirmation and in that situation 5178 will be possible.


2- Move above 5560/5579 will be up trend indication and confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA(5629),it will mean range bound Indian markets between 5444-5944

It is very much clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 Days Intra Day Charts(04-05-2011 to 06-05-2011) that 3 sessions most time trading range is 5500-5560 and intraday patterns within this range are mixed, Nifty will first trade in next week within or little above/below mentioned range and prepare for next moves. Break out implications of mentioned range have already been discussed above.

Finally break out,sustaining above 5560 and Green weekly closing expected in the coming week but precautionally sustaining beyond 5500-5560 will be watched for safety.

Trend Decider Pennant Pattern

Pennant Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Pennant is continuation Pattern. It means that on going trend will remain continued after its break out. 5th impulsive wave is on therefore its upward break out should be expected but all trends are down and Indian markets have moved below 200 Day EMA. Nifty is hovering around at lower levels existing Rising trend line of Pennant for the last 3 sessions with low at 5444 and high at 5579.

Conclusions

Sustaing below 5444 will be bear market confirmation and in that situation 5178 will be possible. Move above 5579 will be up trend indication and confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA,it will mean range bound Indian markets between 5444-5944

Weekly Chart Analysis

Waves structure and Positive MACD chart

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Waves structure

Waves structure is showing that 5th impulsive wave is on after 4th wave correction completion.

Weekly MACD

Both lines of MACD are near equalibrium line. MACD line is merginally above Average line and equalibrium line.

Weekly Chart from 03-09-2010 to 06-05-2011

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Main Features

1- 5 corrective Waves of Wave-4 has been completed
2- Corrective 4th wave begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338
3- Corrective 4th wave finished on 11-02-2011 at 5178
4- Continuation Pattern Pennant broken down but weekly closing within Pattern

Conclusions

Wave-4 completed its correction in 5 sub-waves and Wave-5 is on. All trends are down and only hope for survival of Bull market is Continuation Pattern Pennant formations. Nifty moved below 5th wave in previous week but closed above it. Wave 5 is Rising trend line of Pennant and Nifty sustaining above it will mean survival of Pennant and with this hope of up trend as well.

As Weekly closing is above Wave-5(Rising trens line of Pennant) therefore Bull market hopes are still existing and sustaining beyond as well as next weekly closing above/below mentioned line will be next moves confirmations.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Charts

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 Days Intra Day Charts(04-05-2011 to 06-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features

1- Mixed Patterns in last 3 days between 5500-5560

a- 04-05-2011-
1- Intraday Resistance 5532-5546
2- Intraday support 5510-5530

b- 05-05-2011-
1- Genuine selling between 5525-5560
2- Mixed Patterns between 5455-5490

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(06-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

conclusions from Intra Day Chart(06-05-2011)

Patterns are mixed but conclusions are toward consolidations after using discretion

conclusions from 3 Days Intra Day Charts Analysis

All Bullish barriers have been broken down in last 7 sessions Bearish storm and until complete consolidation will not happen till then market will not reverse. Sustaining above minimum one resistance is must for an up move confirmations. Nifty traded most of the time with mixed trading patterns between 5500-5560 in last 3 days. Nifty traded between 5500-5560 with trading patterns but conclusion is favouring consolidations.

Last 3 days range is 5500-5560 and its break out will mean:-

1- Nifty crossed 5560 but slipped and closed below it within mentioned range. Nifty crossing and sustaining above 5560  will mean 3 days base formation after 9 days sharp fall but sustaining above 5585 and 200 Day EMA is must for trend reversal and Bull rally.

2- Bear phase is on and fresh seeling in the begining of coming week will lead below 5500 for deep bearish market.

As 3 days narrow range moves therefore will better and safer to watch 5500-5560 and get confirmations from break out in first couple of sessions in next week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 06-May-2011

Indian Stock Markets Report(06-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle
2- Strong closing after strong opening
3- All the Indices closed in Green.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.78
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-05-2011):20.32

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1613
BSE DECLINES : 1198
NSE ADVANCES :  893
NSE DECLINES :  502

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(28APR2011)- +13150(+0.78%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(28APR2011)- +618700(+11.98%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- -517650(-11.86%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)-  +768000(+18.54%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)-  -259850(-4.68%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)-  -170800(-4.20%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,551.45(+91.60 Points & +1.68%)
Sensex- closed at 18,518.81(+308.23 Points & +1.69% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,965.40(+131.95 Points & +1.68%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,342.58(+55.51 Points & +0.67%)