As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today is not being updated.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Firstly Watch 7906
Post-open Outlook(03-12-2015)
Although all the Global markets were blasting and most GST passing possibility in previous sessions but we were cautious and told many times for watching 7906 because intraday selling patterns formations were seen in previous week and resultant gap down opening today after yesterday negative closing.
Nifty is hovering around 7906 since opening today and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched today for next Short Term Trend.
For detailed analysis just go through previous sessions analysis which are available on Home page of this Blog.
Cautiously Bullish View
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(02-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7935-7972
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although all the Asian markets were trading with good gains today morning but Indian markets traded with minor gains because Indian markets were not technically prepared for strong rally. As whole day today trading with down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore signals of consolidation process and resultant emergence of on going rally continuation possibility.
As on going rally is slow and very short term indicators have moved into overbought zone as well as well as Indian market under performed Asian markets today therefore view will be cautious and strong rally will be considered after confirmation of sustaining next resistance range(8070-8152).
As intraday consolidation patterns formations today therefore view is cautiously Bullish and some up moves are expected towards 8070-8152.
7906 Will decide Next Trend amid GST and RBI Credit Policy led Volatility
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(01-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Multiple supports at lower levels between 7923-7941
2- Whole day actual trading between 7923-7966
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As intraday selling on 25th Nov and 26th Nov in previous week and technically Indian markets were not mature for strong rally as well as consolidation was firstly required therefore decisive up moves were not seen in last 2 sessions despite most Bullish news of GST passing possibility in current session of Parliament. We cautioned in all the previous outlooks regarding this aspect,resultant no Bullish moves and flat closing today.
We also told that 11 Sessions sideways market between 7714-7906 from Nov 09 to Nov 26,2015 with rounding bottom formation on EOD charts at the bottom of correction and this range was broken out on 27-11-2015 therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required above 11 sessions range highest(7906) for decisive up moves after big news of GST passing possibility.
Whole day trading above 7906 with multiple supports between 7923-7941 today which is first signal of sustaining above 7906 but whole day trading of today was under the shadow of GST news led heated sentiments therefore follow up consolidation with sustaining above 7906 is must in the coming sessions for decisive rally.
As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow and last 2 sessions trading with GST news led Bullish heated sentiments therefore volatility may be high tomorrow and but finally sustaining beyond 7906 will decide next trend and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.
Firstly Watch 7906 for final reaction of GST Passing
Mid-session Outlook(30-11-2015)
Although such most Bullish news of GST passing possibility in current session of Parliament but Indian markets are flat to negative since opening today. We are repeating following lines for keeping in mind which were told yesterday in "Bullish Flag Formation in last 9 months Correction suggesting Strong Rally":-
1- Although 11 Sessions range broken out on 27-11-2015 but on the back of sudden developments of most positive expectations of GST passing
2- selling patterns formations were also seen in last week
3- last 2 sessions up moves were on the back of strong Global markets and GST passing expectations
4- firstly follow up consolidation is required for sustaining above 11 sessions range highest(7906)
5- no confirmation of on going correction completion yet
6- Bull markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels therefore its possibility can not be ruled out because GST passing possibilities suddenly.
If Indian markets would have been technically prepared for fresh rally then have opened gap up more than 1% today after such Bullish news(GST) but flat to negative market today because higher levels consolidation was firstly required after selling 25 Nov and 26 Nov in previous week.
Expected that finally rally will remain continued but for immediate up trend firstly sustaining above 11 Sessions highest(7906) should be watched for final reaction of GST passing on Indian markets because selling patterns formations in previous week.
Bullish Flag Formation in last 9 months Correction suggesting Strong Rally
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 30 to Dec 04,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
5- Wave-1(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
6- Wave-2(7714.15 on 16-11-2015)
7- Wave-3 is on with recent top formation at 7959.30 on 27-11-2015
9 Months Correction in Bullish Flag formations
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
3- 9 Months correction completion at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015
4- 9 Months correction in Bullish Flag formations
Whole correction in Falling channel
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
2- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
3- Whole correction in Falling channel
11 Sessions Trading Range broken out on 27-11-2015
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 09 to Dec 27,2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 11 Sessions actual trading between 7714-7906
2- 11 Sessions range broken out on 27-11-2015 after PM invitation to Manmohan Singh and Soniya Gandhi to find solution for passing of GST
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down and will be up after sustaining above 8116
3- Long Term Trend is down and will be up after sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8135)
'ABC' correction begun on 04-03-2015 and from 9119.20 which completed at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and Wave-1 of fresh rally begun which completed at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and corrective Wave-2 started which completed at 7714.15 on 16-11-2015 with following developments:-
1- 11 Sessions sideways market between 7714-7906 from Nov 09 to Nov 26,2015
2- Rounding bottom formation at the bottom of correction in last 11 sessions
3- 11 Sessions range broken out on 27-11-2015
Although 11 Sessions range broken out on 27-11-2015 but on the back of sudden developments of most positive expectations of GST passing because PM invitation to Manmohan Singh and Soniya Gandhi for finding GST passing solutions. As selling patterns formations were also seen in last week and last 2 sessions up moves were on the back of strong Global markets and GST passing expectations therefore firstly follow up consolidation is required for sustaining above 11 sessions range highest(7906). Bull markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels therefore its possibility can not be ruled out because GST passing possibilities suddenly.
Next 3 resistances of Nifty are as follows:-
1- 8070-8152
2- 8196-8232
3- 8262-8325
Long Term Trend is down and its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8135) is lying within above mentioned first resistance range,once sustaining above 8152 will mean strong rally after all trends turning up confirmations. As rounding bottom formation at the bottom of correction in last 11 sessions and this range has also broken out last Friday as well as big news of GST passing therefore strong possibilities of fresh rally after follow up consolidation above 11 sessions range highest(7906).
As whole 9 months correction from 9119.20 to 7539.50 in Falling channel with Bullish Flag formations therefore sustaining above 8152 will be strong indication of this big correction completion and that will mean high possibility of fresh rally above life time high(9119.20). Although no confirmation of on going correction completion yet but Bullish Flag formations is suggesting that Nifty is mature for strong rally above 9119.20 and it is expected also.
Rally triggering after GST passing expectations
As PM invitaion to Manmohan Singh and Soniya Gandhi to find solution for passing of GST therefore Bullish reaction of Indian markets and Nifty crossing of 11 sessions trading range(7714-7906) which is an indication of fresh rally after correction completion. Certainly GST passing will be a big boost to Indian economy and if Nifty sustains above 7906 then strong rally will be seen after 11 sessions valid break out confirmations.
Just Watch 7854-7877 for first strong signal of next big decisive moves
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(27-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 4 hours trading between 7854-7877 with Mixed patterns formations
2- 4 hours trading range broken out after positive opening with recovery from lower levelsof all European markets
3- Whole day actual trading between 7832-7897
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As sentiment was good after positive zone trading of all the Asian markets therefore Green opening of Indian markets. Selling was seen between 7854-7877 in last 2 sessions and Nifty was not prepared to sustain above 7877 therefore firstly more than 4 hours of trading within this range. Although some up moves above 7877 but after positive opening and recovery from lower levels of all European markets therefore view will not be Bullish because;-
1- Today intraday patterns have not shown as such consolidation but Mixed patterns formations in first 4 hours.
2- All the intraday up moves were reaction of positive Asian markets and after 01:30 PM were due to Green European markets.
Last 11 sessions trading between 7714-7906 with and this range will decide next big moves. As good selling between 7854-7877 on 23 and 24 Nov was closing just above it at 7883.80 after Mixed patterns formations within this range as well as today whole day intraday moves were strong Global sentiments led therefore firstly valid break out of this range(7854-7877) should be watched in the coming sessions for first strong signal of next big decisive moves beyond 11 sessions trading range(7714-7906)
Post-open Outlook(26-11-2015)
As all the Asian markets are in Green and some are more than 1% up therefore positive opening of Indian markets but selling between 7854-7877 in last 2 sessions therefore could not move above it.
Global sentiments are improving because most European markets closed more than 1.5% yesterday therefore possibility of higher levels consolidation amid strong sentiments can not be ruled out and firstly sustaining above last 2 sessions selling range(7854-7877) should be watched for decisive up moves under improved Global sentiments.
Global sentiments are improving because most European markets closed more than 1.5% yesterday therefore possibility of higher levels consolidation amid strong sentiments can not be ruled out and firstly sustaining above last 2 sessions selling range(7854-7877) should be watched for decisive up moves under improved Global sentiments.
Emergence of Deeper Correction Possibility
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(26-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling patterns formation between 7854-7870
2- Whole day actual trading between 7813-7870
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told on 23-11-2015 in "Valid break out 7826-7877 will be next trend first strong indication":-
Nifty will have to prepare for next decisive moves within and near about today trading range(7826-7877),its valid break out will be next trend first strong indication and should be firstly watched tomorrow.
As was told 100% same happened and Nifty traded most time within mention range as well as closed between it at 7931.60 on 24-11-2015.
Selling at higher levels on 23-11-2015 and follow up selling on 24-11-2015 also therefore expected that more down moves will be seen on 26-11-2015 and emergence of deeper correction possibility also because correction is already on and still selling continuation for the last 2 sessions.
Valid break out 7826-7877 will be next trend first strong indication
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(24-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling patterns formations between 7865-7877
2- Support between 7826-7843
3- Whole day actual trading between 7826-7877
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
When Nifty was trading in Green then following lines were told today at 12:47 PM "Mid-session Outlook(23-11-2015)":-
1- most time positive zone trading since opening today and now also Nifty is in Green
2- some selling patterns formations also seen between 7865-7877
3- firstly valid break out of 7877 should be watched now
As selling was seen between 7865-7877 in first 3 hours therefore valid break out of 7877 was told for watching and Nifty could not moves above it whole day as well as closed below mentioned selling range.
6 Sessions most time trading range(7724-7852) broken out last Friday but not sustaining above it and today closing within this range at 7849.25. 3 Strong signals of Pull Back Rally were updated yesterday in "Rally Continuation Expectations towards 8146" and still its hopes are alive but higher levels selling was also seen today therefore follow up consolidation is also required for rally continuation after sustaining above today highest(7877) because no confirmation of on going that correction completion which started on 26-10-2015 from 8336.30.
As some intraday supports were also seen at lower levels after higher levels selling today therefore Mixed intraday patterns formations will be understood for today and Nifty will have to prepare for next decisive moves within and near about today trading range(7826-7877),its valid break out will be next trend first strong indication and should be firstly watched tomorrow.
Rally Continuation Expectations towards 8146
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 23 to Nov 27,2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Nov 12 to Nov 20,2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 6 Sessions most time trading between 7724-7852
2- 6 Sessions trading range broken out forcefully on 20-11-2015 but closing within it after slipping in last hour.
Conclusions from 7 Sessions intra day chart analysis
6 Sessions most time trading between 7724-7852 and this range forcefully broken out on 20-11-2015 but could not sustain at higher levels and closing within 6 sessions range therefore technically sustaining above last 6 sessions highest(7852) is firstly required for the confirmation of fresh rally after valid break out of 6 sessions sideways range.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation in first hour between 7818-7837
2- More than 3 hours onsolidation Patterns between 7881-7906
3- 36 Points sharp fall in 3 minutes
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 7818-7906
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although 36 Points sharp fall in 3 minutes during last hours of trading on 20-11-2015 but it will be understood a part of consolidation process because as such no selling patterns were seen. As whole day above mentioned consolidation patterns formations therefore strong signals of fresh up moves above day's highest(7906) after following up consolidation within previous session trading range(7818-7906)
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Detailed analysis of EOD charts have already been updated in following previous week analysis topic on 14-11-2015:-
Firstly Up moves Expectations amid On Going Correction
As no material change in EOD charts formations in previous week therefore in its continuation following intraday charts analysis is being updated to understand next week moves:-
All trends are down during on going correction and no confirmation of its completion yet but following strong signals of Pull Back Rally in next week because:-
1- Rounding bottom(Bullish Pattern) formations in last 9 sessions EOD charts
2- Good intraday consolidation at lower levels in last 9 sessions and as such selling patterns not seen.
3- Previous 6 Sessions most time trading range(7724-7852) broken out last Friday with intraday consolidation patterns formations despite slipping from higher levels in last hours.
Next 3 resistances of Nifty are as follows:-
1- 8070-8152
2- 8196-8232
3- 8262-8325
Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8146 and and rally continuation is expected up to this levels. Once sustaining above it will mean clearing of above mentioned first resistance also which will be strong signal of fresh rally after all trends turning up confirmations.
Firstly Up moves Expectations amid On Going Correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 16 to Nov 20,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
6- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015
Intra Day Chart Analysis(13-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 7731-7760
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Good intraday corrections in last hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 7731-7775
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As all the Global markets were in deep Red therefore huge gap down opening but whole day 44 points sideways trading with good intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore emergence of some decisive up moves expectations in the Next week. Dow Jones closed 202 points down last Friday and if in its reaction Asian markers also remains weak then initial down moves may be seen in Indian markets also but until Nifty will not sustain below day's lowest(7731) after fresh selling till then decisive down moves will not be seen and once sustaining above day's highest(7775) after follow up consolidation will mean strong Pull Back Rally next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
18 Months 4000 points strong rally(from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 and from 5118.85 to 9119.20) with many times new life time high formation and after that 'ABC' correction begun which gave its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Then Pull Back rally started from 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 which completed its 5th Wave at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and after that its correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015.
Pull Back Rally completed at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction begun. Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 8232(corrected)
2- 23.6%- 8148(corrected)
3- 27.0%- 8121(corrected)
4- 38.2%- 8031(Crucial level corrected)
5- 50.0%- 7937(Crucial level corrected)
6- 61.8%- 7843(Crucial level corrected)
7- 70.7%- 7772(corrected)
8- 76.4%- 7727
9- 78.6%- 7710
10-88.6%- 7630
Recent bottom formation of on going correction is at 7730.90 which means that 76.4% retracement has almost been completed. As such deeper correction of previous Pull Back Rally therefore possibility of slipping below its lowest(7539.50) can not be ruled out now. Once slipping below it will mean recalculation of waves structure of on going that correction which from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015,let Nifty slip below 7539.50 then will be updated accordingly.
Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Supports between 7731-7760
2- Supports between 7695-7726
3- Supports between 7545-7582
As intraday good consolidation on 13-11-2015 therefore signals of some up moves beginning in next week and firstly sustaining above first supports(7731-7760) should be watched in the beginning of next week. Valid break out of 7760 will mean fresh Pull Back rally and valid breaking down of 7731 will mean correction continuation towards the bottom(7539.50) of previous Pull Back Rally. Once slipping below 7539.50 will mean fresh down moves gates opening,let it happen then levels below it will be updated.
Following points are suggesting fresh rally after on going correction completion above 7539.50:-
1- Wave'C' corrected up to 7539.50 which was very little more than Wave'A',it means that Wave'C' corrected 100% of Wave'A',it is an indication of correction completion also.
2- Previous week down moves were on the back Bihar results and weaker global markets.
3- Intraday patterns on last few sessions showed consolidation patterns formations and selling patterns were not seen.
Some up moves are expected and correction completion will be considered after sustaining above following levels:-
1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8163)
Final conclusion is that correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet but indications of its completion which requires confirmations through sustaining above next resistances and crucial levels and deeper correction will be considered after slipping below 7539.50 but some up moves are firstly expected in next week after consolidation last Friday and some more previous sessions.
Pre-open Outlook(13-11-2015)
As intraday consolidation patterns formations on 10-11-2015 therefore a Bounce back was expected on "Diwali Muhurt session" which was seen also on but some up moves will not be seen today because all the Asian markets are in Red and some are 1% to 2% down after huge fall in all the US and European markets yesterday.
Such high depressing sentiments reaction will be gap down opening of Indian markets and on going correction continuation today , let fresh consolidation develop and Nifty to sustain above higher level resistances and crucial levels(have been updated in previous Outlooks) then its completion will be considered.
Up Moves Expectations in the coming Couple of Sessions
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- All the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7773-7885
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day down moves with closing near the lower levels of the day yesterday but all the Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore a Bounce back is expected on "Diwali Muhurt session" between 05:45 PM and 06:45 PM today. As Oscillators are also oversold and above mentioned intraday consolidation patterns formations also therefore today started up moves continuation may be seen on 13-11-2015 also.
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