आप सभी को दीपावली की हार्दिक शुभकामनायें
Wishing you all Happy and Prosperous Dipawali
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Fresh Down Moves triggering after BJP Big Defeat in Bihar
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(10-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4 Hours Mixed Patterns between 7843-7874
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7828-7937
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As such big unexpected defeat of BJP in Bihar and development of many uncertainties regarding future policies of Modi Govt resultant fresh down moves triggered therefore whole day negative zone trading after huge gap down opening today. Although good up moves in last hours but in Bearish Rising Channel and after 4 Hours Mixed Patterns formations therefore follow up consolidation is must for decisive up moves above today highest(7937.75).
All trends are down and correction is on but as such consolidation patterns formations were not seen at lower levels today despite good recovery from lower levels therefore only some volatility with more down moves will be considered now and until Nifty will not sustain above following levels till then correction completion will not be considered and on going correction will remain continued:-
1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)
Reaction of Unexpected Big Defeat BJP in Bihar today
Pre-open Outlook(09-11-2015)
As such big unexpected defeat of BJP in Bihar and development of many uncertainties regarding future policies of Modi Govt as well as all around most depressed sentiment therefore gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets today. Although Indian markets are technically well poised for fresh up moves but such big jolt was never expected and firstly Indian markets reaction on this most depressing news should be watched today then next moves will be finalised according to fresh technical positions formations.
Short Term Rally next Monday despite whatsoever Bihar Assembly Results
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 09 to Nov 13,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
6- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015
7- Long Term Trend is down after last 8 sessions closing below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Nov-2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Nov 05 & Nov 06,2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- All the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels in last 2 sessions
2- 2 Sessions actual trading between 7927-8031
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
18 Months 4000 points strong rally(from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 and from 5118.85 to 9119.20) with many times new life time high formation and after that 'ABC' correction begun which gave its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Then Pull Back rally started from 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 which completed its 5th Wave at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and after that its correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015.
Fibonacci Retracement levels and next 7 supports of on going correction has already been updated in following previous weekly analysis topic:-
Correction Continuation towards next 7 Supports
Nifty has completed mentioned 50% retracement and closed within 2nd support range last Friday. Certainly correction of Pull back rally is very much on and no confirmation of its completion yet but following points are giving signals of Short Term Rally in the beginning of next week:-
1- Short Term indicators are oversold
2- Intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation patterns formations
3- Selling patterns not seen in last 2 sessions despite negative closing.
4- Doji Candle formation last Friday which is also a signal of down moves stopping.
Correction started from 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and its completion will be considered only after sustaining above following levels:-
1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)
As last 2 sessions intraday charts have shown consolidation patterns formations therefore firstly Short Term Rally is expected on 09-11-2015 despite whatsoever Bihar Assembly results on 08-11-2015 and 200 Day EMA(today at 8177) will decide Rally continuation or termination.
Fresh Rally from 9th Nov after consolidation pattern formations today
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(06-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Whole day all the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7945-8031
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day down moves and more than 1% negative closing also today but all the Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore it is a signal of some up moves tomorrow. Last 3 sessions trading between 7996-8152 with following supports and resistances:-
1- Next supports are between 7996-8016
2- Next resistances are between 8108-8152
Nifty moved down and closed below last 3 sessions range and mentioned supports range has also been broken down today which is a strong signal of decisive down moves. As today all the down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation pattern also and intraday selling patterns were not seen today therefore firstly sustaining below 7996 should be watched because that will be fresh deep down moves confirmation.
Short Term indicators are oversold and above mentioned whole day consolidation pattern formations also today therefore once valid break out of 7996 will also mean first strong indication of that correction completion which started from 8336.30 on 26-10-2015.
As per our view Indian stock markets have been technically prepared today for fresh rally after on going correction completion and its trigger will NDA clear victory in Bihar Polls which we are expecting also. Let it happen on 8th Nov then fresh rally will be seen on 9th Nov 2015.
Decisive Big Moves beyond 7996-8152 after Bihar Election Results
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(05-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 5 hours Mixed Patterns between 8070-8094
2- Whole day actual trading between 8028-8116
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in "Firstly Watch 7996 amid Some More Down Moves":-
As good selling today therefore some more down moves towards yesterday lowest(7996) will be seen tomorrow
Although all the Asian markets were blasting today morning but we were not Bullish therefore we told following lines today at 07:45 AM in "Firstly Watch 8100 amid Blasting Asian Markets":-
1- strong opening will be seen in Indian markets
2- Clear selling patterns formations between Selling between 8081-8100 yesterday
3- firstly sustaining above 8100 should be watched for first signal of decisive up moves.
As was told 100% same happened today and Nifty could not sustain above 8100 as well as whole day down moves were seen after strong gap up opening and today negative zone closing was at the lowest of the day.
Although today closing near the lower levels of the day after slipping 88 points from higher levels but more than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8070-8094 today therefore final view will be formed after consideration of following points:-
1- Next big moves will be seen on 6th or 9th Nov according to Bihar Assembly Elections Exit Poll results after 05:00 PM tomorrow.
2- Next supports are between 7996-8016
3- Next resistances are between 8108-8152
As clear selling patterns formations between 8061-8100 yesterday therefore Nifty could not sustain above it despite strong Asian and European markets today but more than 5 hours trading with mixed Patterns within this range between 8070-8094 today therefore it is clear that Indian markets are not technically prepared for any side decisive moves and will trade as well as prepare for next trend between 7996-8152 tomorrow because above mentioned supports and resistances are lying within this range.
As decisive big moves will be seen beyond 7996-8152 after Bihar Election results on 6th or 9th Nov therefore Nifty will remain sideways and prepare for it within this range tomorrow. Let clear technical positions formations develop then will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations.
Firstly Watch 8100 amid Blasting Asian Markets
Pre-open Outlook(04-11-2015)
Most Asian markets have blasted today morning and are trading from 1.2% to 2.1% up at this moment therefore sentiment boosted and strong opening will be seen in Indian markets also. Clear selling patterns formations between Selling between 8081-8100 yesterday and firstly sustaining above 8100 should be watched for first signal of decisive up moves.
Firstly Watch 7996 amid Some More Down Moves
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(04-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8081-8100
2- Selling between 8061-8077
3- Whole day actual trading between 8032-8100
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in "Rally will gain strong Momentum above 8152":-
1- some more up moves will be seen
2- Next resistances between 8108-8152
3 Nifty will remain sideways between 7996-8152 tomorrow
Some more up moves were told yesterday and most of the time Nifty traded in positive zone as well as closed in Green today. Next resistances between 8108-8152 were also told and whole day Nifty traded below it with fresh selling also within above mentioned ranges therefore expected that down moves below today lowest will be seen and once valid breaking down of yesterday lowest(7996) will mean high possibility of sharp fall.
As both lower levels good consolidation and equally good higher levels selling between 7996-8100 in last 2 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will trade within this range tomorrow and prepare for next decisive moves beyond this range. It seems that Indian markets are preparing for next big moves after Bihar Election results. Let Nifty prepare and complete technical positions form then next trend will be updated according to more intraday charts analysis of the coming sessions.
As good selling today therefore some more down moves towards yesterday lowest(7996) will be seen tomorrow and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow.
Rally will gain strong Momentum above 8152
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(03-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 7996-8016(Immediate Supports)
2- Whole day actual trading between 7996-8060
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although lower levels consolidation between 7996-8016 and this range will be immediate support of Nifty also but last hours up moves were on the back of European markets and Dow's strong recovery from lower levels therefore follow up consolidation with sustaining above today lowest(7996) is must for beginning of fresh decisive rally.
As Short Term oscillators are oversold and Bullish Hammer candle formation on today EOD chart therefore certainly indications of some more up moves but Short Term Trend reversal and strong momentum will be seen only after sustaining above next resistances between 8108-8152
Expected that some more up moves will be seen but Nifty will remain sideways between 7996-8152 tomorrow and follow up technical positions formations within this range will decide next decisive moves.
Correction Continuation towards next 7 Supports
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 02 to Nov 06,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
10- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
11- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015
Waves structure of correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015
6- Long Term Trend is sideways after Nifty hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) on 16-10-2015
Waves structure of Pull Back Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015
Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Last 17 sessions intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 05 to Oct 30,2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 27 Sessions trading range forcefully broken out on 05-10-2015
2- 15 sessions trading between 8090-8336 from 06-10-2015 to 29-10-2015
3- 15 Sessions trading range broken down on 30-10-2015
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend turned down in on going correction
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up
3- Long Term Trend is sideways after Nifty hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) for last 17 sessions.
That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 gained 4000 points and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after many times new life times high formation. 'ABC' correction started which has given its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 from where Pull Back Rally begun. Now its correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015 and till now no indication of its completion. Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 8232(corrected)
2- 23.6%- 8148(corrected)
3- 27.0%- 8121(corrected)
4- 38.2%- 8031(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7937(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7843(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7772
8- 76.4%- 7727
9- 78.6%- 7710
10-88.6%- 7630
Nifty traded 27 Sessions between 7540-8092 from 24-08-2015 to 01-10-2015 and this range was forcefully broken out on 05-10-2015 which was a strong signal of 'ABC' correction completion at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Nifty remained sideways between 8090-8336 in 15 sessions and also closed 7 days above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) which was almost confirmation of strong rally after all trend turning up but this range was also forcefully broken down last Friday and Nifty closed within 27 sessions range at 8065.80 . It is clear that 2 sideways trading ranges of last 44 sessions are giving lower levels supports and higher levels resistances also therefore Nifty will be understood sideways within it between 7540-8336.
As downward momentum is on after 15 sessions range breaking down last Friday therefore correction continuation will be seen according to above mentioned Fibonacci Retracement levels towards following supports in next week:-
1- Supports between 8033-8067
2- Supports between 7940-7971
3- Supports between 7874-7908
4- Supports between 7837-7865
5- Supports between 7804-7830
6- Supports between 7695-7726
7- Supports between 7545-7582
Bearish Engulfing weekly candle formation last Friday and no signal of correction completion yet therefore until complete consolidation will not develop near about above mention levels till then correction completion will not be considered and much deeper correction will be seen only after failing to get supports at above levels.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)