Firstly Bounce Back & finally Correction Continuation towards 7642.30

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 15 to Jun 19,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015

Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-1 corrected 850.05 points
4- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
5- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
6- Wave-3 corrected 847.25 points
7- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
8- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015
9- Wave-3 has corrected 549.25 points
10- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support and Consolidation between 7941-7967(Immediate Supports)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7941-7995

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing with minor gains on 12-06-2015 but whole day good consolidation and no selling patterns formations as well as Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore finally up moves are expected in the beginning of next week despite all European and US markets more than .62% down closing last Friday.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down and Indian markets are in the firm grip of Bears as well as confirmations of 5 Waves correction in previous weeks therefore correction continuation will be considered and until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction completion will not be expected.

Wave-1 and Wave-3 have corrected almost 850 points and almost as such 850 points correction will be considered for on going Wave-5 also but on going Wave-5 will complete above 7642.30 because as per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5". Now corrective Wave-5 is on and it should not loose more points than Wave-3 lost.

Wave-3 lost=847.25 points(8844.40-7997.15)

It means on going corrective Wave-5 will loose less than 847.25 points which started from(8489.55). Therefore maximum target of on going Wave-5 will be:-

8489.55-847.25=7642.30

Wave-1 started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 and its 5th wave completed on 04-03-2015 at 9119.20 and 5 Waves correction begun,now its corrective Wave-5 is on with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015. As correction started on 04-03-2015 after 5 waves completion therefore Nifty will correct whole that move which started from 5118.85 and completed 9119.20 acoording to following Fibonacci retracement levels:-

1- 13.0%-8,598(Corrected)
2- 23.6%-8,174(Corrected)
3- 27.0%-8,038(Corrected)
4- 38.2%-7,590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-7,118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-6,646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%-6,290
8- 76.4%-6,062
8- 78.6%-5,974 
10-88.6%-5,574 

27.0% retracement has been completed and next crucial 38.2% retracement levels is at 7,590 which is below on going Wave-5 maximum target(7642.30). Expected that on going corrective Wave-5 will completed above 7642.30 but correction completion will be considered only after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200) because its breaking down confirmation after last 8 sessions closing below it.

As Short Term Oscillators are oversold and intraday consolidation patterns formations also on 12-06-2015 therefore a bounce back will be considered in the beginning of next week. If follow up consolidation develops on next Monday then a Pull Back rally will be seen but until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction will not complete.

Firstly bounce back & finally correction continuation towards 7642.30 is expected in next week

Maximum target of on going correction at 7642.30

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(12-06-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7958.25 on 11-06-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and firstly 'ABC'correction was considered but once slipping below Wave-C bottom(7997.15) mean 5 waves correction and now  Wave-5 correction continuation. 

As per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now corrective Wave-5 is on and it should not loose more points than Wave-3 lost.

Wave-3 lost=847.25 points(8844.40-7997.15)

It means on going corrective Wave-5 will loose less than 847.25 points which started from(8489.55). Therefore maximum target of on going Wave-5 will be:-
8489.55-847.25=7642.30

It means that on going Wave-5 will complete above 7642.30

First Indication of Next Big Moves 
from 8085-8185

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(11-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Sharp 65 points up in first 4 minutes
2- Mixed Patterns between 8085-8115 in 5 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8030-8150

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Finally Pull back rally above 8057":-

1- Pull back rally is expected tomorrow.
2- fast up moves will be seen after valid break out above today highest(8057)
3- some resistances are lying between 8135-8185
4- strong rally will be considered after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8185. 

As was told 100% same happened and that fast Pull back rally was seen today which moved up 65 points sharply in first 4 minutes only. Resistances were told between 8135-8185 and Nifty could not sustain within this range as well as slipped below it after intraday highest formation at 8152.25.

As 5 hours mixed Patterns formations between 8085-8115 and resistances are lying just above it between 8135-8185 therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for fresh strong rally and sustaining above 8185.  

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 8085-8185 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide following next trend:-

1- Sustaining above 8185 will mean fast up moves possibility towards next resistance range(8427-8485)
2- Sustaining below 8085 will mean fast down moves possibility towards next support range(8008-8025)

37 sessions trading between 7997-8505 and finally break out of this range will decide next big moves but first indication of those big moves can be drawn from valid break out of 8085-8185 and must be watched in the coming sessions. 

Finally Pull back rally above 8057

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(10-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8045-8057
2- Good consolidation also between 8008-8025 
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8006-8057

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day 51 points sideways trading with both higher levels selling and lower levels good consolidation also therefore valid break out of today trading range should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations. 

Following lines were told on 03-06-2015 in "Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast":-

1- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
2- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
3- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
4- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
5- Wave-5 continuation after slipping below 7997

Slipping below 7997 will be corrective Wave-5 confirmation which will be open the doors of deeper 5% fast correction.

As good consolidation between 8057-8135 from 03-06-2015 to 05-06-2015 therefore fast up moves will be seen after valid break out above today highest(8057) but some resistances are lying between 8135-8185 and strong rally will be considered after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8185. 

As Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel pattern formations seen 3 times and lower levels good consolidation also therefore expected that finally Nifty will move above today highest(8057) and Pull back rally is expected tomorrow.

Mid-session Outlook(09-06-2015)

Side ways quiet first 4 hours trading between 8008-8057 with both higher levels selling between 8045-8057 and lower levels good consolidation also between 8008-8025 therefore valid break out of today first 4 hours trading range should be firstly watched now and must be kept in mind that once slipping below 7997 will mean high possibility of sharp down. 

As valid break out of today trading range will open the gates of next big moves therefore should be firstly watched.

As busy therefore today Outlook is not being updated but Mid-session Outlook will be posted during trading hours today.

33 Sessions Sideways Nifty requires break out for Next Big Moves

Intra Day Charts Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 03 to Jun 05,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8168-8190 on 03-06-2015
2- Consolidation between 8095-8135 on 03-06-2015
3- Consolidation between 8105-8152 on 04-06-2015
4- Consolidation between 8057-8084 on 04-06-2015
5- Consolidation between 8119-8140 on 04-06-2015
6- Consolidation between 8104-8134 on 05-06-2015
7- Mixed Patterns between 8132-8190 on 05-06-2015
8- Consolidation between 8109-8122 on 05-06-2015
9- 3 Sessions most time trading between 8057-8190 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

3 Sessions most time trading between 8057-8190 with good consolidation within this range but mixed Patterns formations were also seen within this range at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for break out and sustaining above last 3 sessions range highest(8190)

Following lines were told on 03-06-2015 in "Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast"

As Nifty traded last 31 sessions between 7997-8505 and hover around 14 days Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of Long Term Trend also and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. 

Nifty is not trending but sideways between 7997-8505 for the last 33 sessions and break out of this range range will decide next big moves of Nifty. As good consolidation in last 3 sessions near the lower levels of this range between 8057-8190 therefore emergence of some up moves expectations within 33 sessions range.  

Pull Back Rally Possibility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8105-8152
2- Consolidation between 8057-8084
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8119-8140
4- Whole day actual trading between 8057-8152

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing in a volatile day today but whole day good consolidation and Bullish Hammer candlestick formation therefore Pull Back rally is expected in the coming sessions and once sustaining above today trading highest(8152) will mean today consolidation levels turning into strong supports.

As all the European markets are trading moe than 1% down and Dow Futures is also now 110 points down therefore sentimental weakness may be seen tomorrow morning if such weakness reflects in Asian markets also and in that situation Nifty may firstly trade within today trading range. As whole day good consolidation Patterns formations today therefore until fresh selling will not develop till then down moves below today lowest will not be considered.  

Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- 31 sessions between 7997-8505
6- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Union Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan said on monsoon yesterday that India Meteorological Department (IMD) had downgraded its earlier April prediction from 93 per cent to 88 per cent this month.

As soon as above statement came out Indian markets started to move down and Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) today,finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend will decide next trend because:-

Nifty tested and hovered around 200 Day EMA 11 sessions from 28-04-2015 to 14-05-2015 and finally sustained above it last 13 sessions but again moved below it today.

As market came under firm grip of Bears after negative news of Weaker monsoon and final impact of this news on Indian markets have to be decided yet because as per our view 12 per cent less monsoon will not create as such havoc and drought like situation. 

As Nifty traded last 31 sessions between 7997-8505 and hover around 14 days Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of Long Term Trend also and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. 

Slipping below 7997 will mean 5 Waves correction confirmation and in that situation Waves structure of on going correction will be as follows:-

1- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
2- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
3- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
4- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
5- Wave-5 continuation after slipping below 7997

Certainly Long Term Trend is at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast and slipping below 7997 will be Wave-5 as well as deeper correction.

Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market between 8201-8489

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Volatility after 25 BPS rates cut by RBI.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel after RBI rates cut.
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last more than 3 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8227-8445

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although we were expecting Rally above 8467/8489 after Repo Rates cut by 50 BPS to 100 BPS today but well prepared also for down moves if rate are cut by 25 BPS therefore we told following line yesterday;-

1- 25 BPS rate cut is confirm and discounted in present rates also therefore if it is announced then market will fall.

Firstly volatility after 25 BPS rate cut and after that Huge fall was seen today but all the down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel therefore expected that Pull Back Rally will be seen in the coming sessions.

Weekly Analysis topic with Crucial levels were updated on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

Nifty traded  between 8201-8489 in last 7 sessions with lower levels good supports therefore Nifty could not slip below 8201 despite huge fall today.

As almost 4 hours today down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore Pull Back rally is expected tomorrow and still Nifty will be understood sideways Trading between 8201-8489 and next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond 8201-8489.