Pull Back Rally Expectations

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(12-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day volatility with Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Intraday corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 8682-8755

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day high volatility but following consolidation patterns were seen today:-

1- Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Sufficient intraday corrections were also seen

Following lines were told yesterday in "8669.45 will decide Waves structure of Nifty" ;-

Firstly slipping below the lowest of Sub Wave-2(8669.45) should be watched tomorrow and if it happens then waves structure of Nifty will be at stake as well as waves will be firstly recounted. 

As Nifty could not slipped below 8669.45 and today lowest is at 8,699.95 as well as whole day consolidation patterns were seen in volatile market today therefore expected that Pull Back Rally will be seen in the coming sessions despite today closing near the lowest of the day.

8669.45 will decide Waves structure of Nifty

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(11-03-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
2- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
3- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015 
4- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8669.45 on 26-02-2015 
5- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 
6- Sub Wave-4 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8677.35 on 10-03-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction of Sub Wave-4 continuation and impulsive Sub Wave-5 is still left for up moves above the top of Sub Wave-3(9119.20) because corrective Sub Wave-4(today lowest at 8677.35) has not slipped below the lowest of Sub Wave-2(8669.45). Nifty should not slip below 8669.45 in on going Sub Wave-4 continuation because as per Eliot Wave Theory:- 

Wave-4 should not retrace the entire movement of Wave-3 of the same degree ie must not slip the bottom of Wave-2 

Lowest of Sub Wave-2(8669.45) should be firstly watched and once slipping below it will recounting of whole waves structure from that up move which started from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014

Although new life time high formations after good Budget and RBI rates cut but correction also beginning after crashing like US markets and confusion on Land Acquisiton Bill. As Dow jones is trading more than 250 points down at this moment and and most European markets also closed more than 1% down today therefore if such weakness remain in Asian markets tomorrow then negative zone trading may also be seen Indian markets tomorrow.

Firstly slipping below the lowest of Sub Wave-2(8669.45) should be watched tomorrow and if it happens then waves structure of Nifty will be at stake as well as waves will be firstly recounted. Let it happen then whole waves structure will be reviewed and will be updated accordingly.  

8727-8795 will decide next Short Term Trend

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(10-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8802-8845(Immediate Resistances)
2- Consolidation between 8757-8795
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8741-8845

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As following negative news flow and sentiment turned completely depressed today morning therefore Nifty slipped more than 100 points within first 3 minutes after weak opening:-

1- Dow's 278 points negative closing last Friday.
2- All the Asian markets were in Red today morning.
3- Emergence of rates hike risk in USA.
4- Union Govt agrees to dilute and amend key legistaions in Land Acquisiton Bill.
5- Trouble for BJP and Modi Govt after the release of Masrat Alam and now J&K CM is trying to ensure the release of Ashiq Hussain Faktoo also.

Almost 4 hours sideways trading between 8802-8845 with selling patterns and slipping below 8802 but lower levels consolidation with "Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel" were also seen in last hours therefore emergence of first signal of Pull Back Rally. As selling was also seen today therefore firstly sustaining above 8845 should be watched for next decisive up moves confirmations. 

As consolidations patterns formations in last 2 hours and if finally Nifty sustains above 8727 in the coming 1/2 sessions after follow up consolidations then decisive up moves will be seen towards following resistances:-

1- 8925-8950
2- 9023-9096

Short Term trend turned down after almost double century Nifty fall today but emergence of  Pull Back Rally expectations after lower levels consolidation patterns formations in last 2 hours therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8727-8795 should be watched in the coming couple of sessions for next Short Term Trend confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(09-03-2015)

As all the Asian markets are in Red after Dow's 278 points negative closing last Friday therefore sentiment is completely depressed today morning and resultant weaker opening will be seen in Indian markets. Lower levels good consolidation between 8850-8881 and 8893-8922 on 05-03-2015 and following supports are also lying at lower levels as well as impulsive Sub Wave-5 is still left for fresh up moves above 9119.20 therefore expected that finally decisive up moves will be seen after follow up consolidation in the coming 1/2 sessions:-

1- Supports between 8752-8773 
2- Supports between 8727-8758 
3- Supports between 8737-8787 

Next target of Nifty at 9299.10

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 09 to Mar 13,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015 
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
5- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015 
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8669.45 on 26-02-2015 
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 
9- Sub Wave-4 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8849.35 on 05-03-2015

Bullish break out of 'Pennant Pattern'

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 20 Sessions Correction
2- 'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015
3- Support at the upper line of 'Pennant' on 05-03-2015

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8850-8881(Immediate Supports)
2- Consolidation between 8893-8922(Immediate Supports)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8850-8957

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although sharp fall on 04-03-2015 but  whole day consolidation patterns were also seen also on 04-03-2015 and as such selling patterns were not visible therefore emergence of first strong signal fresh up moves after 1 day correction completion.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and strong Bullish rally continuation with 20 sessions 'Pennant Pattern' formations between 30-01-2015 and 27-02-2015 which was broken out on 28-02-2015. As high expectations from Budget and sentiment remained boiling as well as RBI rates cut was also seen in previous week therefore high volatility was seen but Nifty could not slip below the upper line of 'Pennant' and support got exactly on it on on 05-03-2015 therefore rally continuation hopes are alive.  

Corrective Sub Wave-4 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 started after RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015 but good consolidation was also seen on 05-03-2015 therefore emergence of correction completion signal and if Nifty sustain above the bottom of 05-03-2015 then fresh rally will be seen after Sub Wave-5 confirmation. next possible targets of Sub Wave-5 will be as follows:-

Sub Wave-1 gained 442.95 points(8913.45-8470.50)
Sub Wave-3 gained 449.75 points(9119.20-8669.45)

Sub Wave-3 gained almost 100% of Sub Wave-1(means 449.75 points) and if Sub Wave-5 also gains 100% of Wave-3 after Wave-4 bottom formations confirmation at 8849.35 on 05-03-2015 then next target of Sub Wave-5 will be:- 

449.75+8849.35=9299.10

Firstly sustaining above 8849.35 should be watched in next week and its confirmations will mean confirmation of Sub Wave-5 formation and its continuation towards next target at 9299.10 after 100% of Sub Wave-3. 

As good supports above 8849.35 on 05-03-2015 and as such good selling not seen above it but on the other hand consolidation patterns were also seen on 04-03-2015 therefore expected that finally Nifty will sustain above 8849.35 and will finally move towards next target at 9299.10.

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Rally continuation above today highest(9119.20) despite huge fall today

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(05-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 9023-9096 
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8994-9096

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Huge gap up opening after RBI rates cut and after that almost 5 hours sideways trading with mixed Patterns formation but .82% down closing at the lower levels of the day therefore sentiment turned completely depressed which was jubilant at the opening of the day. As following patterns were also seen today therefore view will not be Bearish:-

1- One hour 160 points down moves after 02:00 PM were in Bullish Falling Channel. 
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel were seen in first 5 hours sideways market also.
 

All trends are up and today sharp down will be considered only intraday correction and rally continuation above today highest(9119.20) is still expected despite huge fall today because above mentioned consolidation patterns Were also seen and as such selling patterns were not seen today. 

Finally Fresh Rally above 9000 after Follow up Consolidations

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(04-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8925-8970(Immediate Supports)
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Up moves with intraday corrections
4- Whole day actual trading between 8925-9008

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive line was told yesterday in Strong Rally after 'Firstly Consolidation and after that Fresh Rally above 9000':-

firstly Nifty will consolidate and prepare for next up moves between 8780-8970 in the coming sessions and finally fresh rally will be seen in unchartered territory above 9000. 

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and firstly Nifty consolidated between 8925-8970 and after that Nifty traded above 9000.

As lower levels good consolidation and after that last hours Up moves with intraday corrections today therefore up moves continuation is expected in the coming sessions  

Although closing near the higher levels of the day but completely Mixed patterns formations today because both Bullish and Bearish patterns formations today and all the up moves were without force also therefore some more consolidations is firstly required for sharp up moves after sustaining above 9000.

Expected that finally fresh rally above 9000 will be seen after follow up consolidations between 8925-9000 in the coming sessions.

Firstly Consolidation and after that Fresh Rally above 9000

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(03-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8924-8972
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8885-8922 
4- Up moves with intraday corrections
5- Nifty hovered around whole day 8936
6- Whole day actual trading between 8885-8972

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive line was told on 28-02-2015 in Strong Rally after 'Pennant Pattern' break out confirmation through sustaining  above last Resistance:-

follow up consolidation with sustaining above last resistance(8936) is must because that will be 'Pennant Pattern'  break out confirmation also.

Nifty hovered around 8936 whole day and finally closed above it after lower levels good consolidation and following consolidation patterns were also seen today:-

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Up moves with intraday corrections

Although Mixed Patterns formations in first hour but after that lower levels consolidation with sufficient intraday corrections were also seen and as such selling was not seen today therefore it seems that Indian markets are under consolidation process. As extremely high expectations from Budget and sentiment was most heated therefore complete consolidation is must before fresh rally and market will take some more time for it. 

Expected that firstly Nifty will consolidate and prepare for next up moves between 8780-8970 in the coming sessions and finally fresh rally will be seen in unchartered territory above 9000. 

Strong Rally after  'Pennant Pattern'  break out confirmation through sustaining  above last Resistance

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 02 to Feb 05,2015)

 Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015

Waves structure of Wave-v of Wave-3

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015 
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
5- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015 
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8669.45 on 26-02-2015 
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,941.10 on 26-02-2015

'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015 

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 22 Sessions Correction
2- 'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and strong recovery from lower levels after Union Budget-2015 amid high volatility and closing above 'Pennant Pattern'which was formed in last 22 Sessions and it is a strong indication of next up moves after Budget. Following resistances were updated on 21-02-2015 in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations":-

1- Resistances between 8820-8852
2- Resistances between 8918-8936

Nifty faced resistance between 2nd resistance(8918-8936) and closed just below it at 8,901.85 after highest formation just above it at 8,941.10 on Union Budget-2015 day. As 'Pennant Pattern break out therefore strong signal of fresh Up moves but sustaining above mentioned resistance(8936) should also be firstly watched. Once sustaining above it will mean fresh rally beginning because it is last resistance of Nifty and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8941.10 on 28-02-2015 and its Sub Wave-5 is still left for up moves above 8941.10. Although negative reactions on Budget are also coming but Short Term Indicators have started to show positive moves signals. As good selling has not seen yet and strong recovery was also seen after lower levels consolidation on Budget day therefore expected that fresh rally will be seen with new life time high formation in next week but follow up consolidation with sustaining above last resistance (8936) is must because that will be 'Pennant Pattern'  break out confirmation also.

Rally continuation after Budget despite High Volatility
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(28-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with intraday correction and in Expanding Channel 
2- Whole day actual trading between 8717-8856

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "Fresh Rally towards Life Time high after Correction Completion Today":-

1- Although today closing near the lowest of the day after sharp down moves but expected that Nifty will not slip below today lowest(8669.45)  
2- fresh rally towards life time high will be seen from tomorrow after completion of correction today 

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today in following manner:-

1- Today lowest is at 8717.45 and Nifty could not slip below yesterday lowest(8669.45) 
2- Fresh strong rally was seen today and Nifty closed 160.75 points up.

Following topic was updated:-

1- On 21-02-2015- Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations
2- On 23-02-2015- Fresh Rally Immediate before or after Budget but after complete consolidation

We told in all the previous topics for fresh Rally immediate before and its was seen one day before Budget today and Post Budget rally will be seen in the coming sessions . As no selling patterns were seen today and whole day up moves of today were with intraday correction therefore next rally will be seen after break out(above 8,856.95)of Expanding Channel which was formed today.

Just keep in mind following lines which we told yesterday in "Fresh Rally towards Life Time high after Correction Completion Today":- 

no question mark on Modi Budget-2015(specially I am telling Modi Budget) and all that will be done which is required for the growth of Indian economy and Corporate sector therefore undoubtedly fresh rally will be seen after Budget despite whatsoever volatility in the coming 1/2 sessions.