Although positive zone trading since opening today but sentiment is much heated after strong rally last Friday therefore minor profit booking is being seen today. As today intraday charts are also indicating consolidation therefore deeper down moves are not possible but negative zone trading can not be ruled out today.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Firstly Volatility and Finally Rally after Union Budget - 2014
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jul 07 to Jul 11,2014)
Nifty-EOD Chart (04-Jul-2014):- |
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1- Wave-III of Wave-3 beginning(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
2- Wave-1(6869.85 on 25-04-2014)
3- Wave-2(6638.55 on 06-05-2014)
4- Wave-3 continuation with new highest formation at 7758 on 04-07-2014
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
New all time high formation at 7758 on 04-07-2014 and further strong rally continuation is still expected because complete selling patterns are required minimum on EOD charts for any deeper correction and no such formation seen yet as well as Bullish Flag break out seen in previous week. we are not projecting such Bullish Outlook today but when Nifty was slipping down and correction was continued then also we predicted such strong rally in all 3 previous Weekly Outlooks and told following lines:-
1- We told on 30-06-2014 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jun 30 to Jul 04,2014):- "finally rally will be seen above 16 sessions highest(7700) after follow up consolidations and on going correction completion as well as deeper correction will not be seen below 16 sessions lowest(7443)"
2- We told on 23-06-2014 in Bullish Flag formation in last 11 sessions correction:- "As Bullish Flag formation in last 11 sessions correction therefore expected that finally rally will be seen after on going correction completion and deeper correction will not be seen"
3- We told on 15-06-2014 in Sideways Market before Fresh Rally:- "finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations in next week"
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Jul-2014):-
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1- Consolidation Patterns between 7721-7732
2- Sharp fall below 7700
3- Consolidation between 7662-7691
4- Strong recovery with lower levels consolidations
5- Whole day actual trading between 7662-7751
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly sharp fall below 7700 and after that 96 points strong recovery from lower levels in last 3 hours and closing well above 7700 on 04-07-2014 but we predicted exactly same moves in all 3 Outlooks of 03-07-2014 and told following lines:-
1- At 01:18 PM on 03-07-2014 in Mid-session Outlook(03-07-2014):-"possibility of slipping below 7700."
2- At 03:13 PM on 03-07-2014 in Pre-closing Outlook(03-07-2014):-"possibility of slipping below 7700 can not be ruled out"
3- In Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(04-07-2014):- (i)"possibility of slipping below 7700 can not be ruled out"
(ii)"much deeper correction is not expected "
As was told 100% same happened and firstly Nifty slipped below 7700 but deeper correction was not seen and Nifty got support at 7661.30 as well as strong 96 points recovery with closing well above 7700 seen.
NIFTY-Jul CE(7900)-Buy-Positional-SL-49 &TGT-109-CMP-67
NIFTY-Jul Fut-Buy-Positional-SL-7644 & TGT-7784-CMP-7704(Lalit39)
As we were confirm that Nifty will recover strongly therefore we waited and when Nifty was trading near the higher levels of the day and NIFTY-Jul Fut target was achieved then we sent following profit Booking SMS to our paid clients at 03:18 PM:-
NIFTY Jul F&O(Bought on 04-07-2014)-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP Fut-7785/CMP CE-94(Lalit39)
As we always talk with those proofs which no one can deny therefore updating following picture of above SMS sent to our paid clients:-
1st Website Picture:-
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| Just click on above picture for enlarged view of those SMS which were sent to paid clients |
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| Just click on above picture for enlarged view of those SMS which were sent to paid clients |
1- Numbers of sent SMS.
2- SMS sending Website name.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Rally is very much on and no signal of its completion yet. Just click following topic link which was posted on 12-05-2014 and understand the calculations of on going rally:-
Bullish market Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation towards those higher levels which can not be easily imagined at this moment because following minimum waves are still left:-
1- Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation and no signal of its termination yet.
2- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-3 will start after on going Wave completion and this corrective will correct whole that up move which started from 5933.30.
3- Impulsive Wave-v of Wave-3 will start after previous corrective wave completion and this Wave will form new high above the top of Wave-iii of Wave-3. It should also be kept in mind that Wave-iii of Wave-3 top formations confirmation has not been seen yet.
4- Wave-v of Wave-3 completion will mean termination of Wave-3 and corrective Wave-4 beginning.
5- Corrective Wave-4 will correct whole up moves which started from 5700.95.
6- Impulsive Wave-5 will start towards new top formation above the top of Wave-3.
Next week will be full of big events because Budget session will start from 7th July and volatility will remain high on following events:-
1- Rail Budget on 8th July
2- Economic survey on 9th July
3- Budget on 10th July
As Economic survey may present disappointing picture therefore 9th july may be a corrective day but firstly volatility and finally rally is expected after Union Budget on 10th July.
Mid-session Outlook(04-07-2014)
Although last 2 sessions closing above 7700 but we told for the possibility of slipping below 7700 in all 3 previous Outlooks and Nifty slipped below it sharply as well as today lowest formation at 7661.60.
As sentiment was heated and and some selling was also seen yesterday therefore intraday correction below 7700 was expected and it was updated again and again. Very Short Term correction beginning and 1st signal of its completion through panic bottom formation as well as inverted Head and Shoulder pattern formation in last 45 Minutes,its Neckline is at 7688 and once sustaining above it will mean fresh rally after today started very Short Term correction completion.
As sentiment was heated and and some selling was also seen yesterday therefore intraday correction below 7700 was expected and it was updated again and again. Very Short Term correction beginning and 1st signal of its completion through panic bottom formation as well as inverted Head and Shoulder pattern formation in last 45 Minutes,its Neckline is at 7688 and once sustaining above it will mean fresh rally after today started very Short Term correction completion.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(04-07-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Jul-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling immediately after opening
2- Selling between 7730-7740
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
4- More than 2 hours trading with mixed patterns between 7707-7729
5- Lower levels 5 times supports above 7700
6- Whole day actual trading between 7707-7754
Although sentiment was heated but without force slow up moves with Bearish Rising Channel formation was seen yesterday therefore requirement of sustaining above 7700 with follow up consolidation was told in most of the Outlooks yesterday and today. Nifty sustained above 7700 whole day today but complete consolidation was not seen today selling with lower levels 5 times supports above 7700 and some consolidation also seen today.
Certainly higher levels selling but consolidation patterns formations also today therefore signals of consolidation process continuation and possibility of slipping below 7700 can not be ruled out under on going consolidation process. All trends are up and Budget is only 5 sessions away therefore much deeper correction is not expected and possibility of higher levels consolidation.
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1- Selling immediately after opening
2- Selling between 7730-7740
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
4- More than 2 hours trading with mixed patterns between 7707-7729
5- Lower levels 5 times supports above 7700
6- Whole day actual trading between 7707-7754
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although sentiment was heated but without force slow up moves with Bearish Rising Channel formation was seen yesterday therefore requirement of sustaining above 7700 with follow up consolidation was told in most of the Outlooks yesterday and today. Nifty sustained above 7700 whole day today but complete consolidation was not seen today selling with lower levels 5 times supports above 7700 and some consolidation also seen today.
Certainly higher levels selling but consolidation patterns formations also today therefore signals of consolidation process continuation and possibility of slipping below 7700 can not be ruled out under on going consolidation process. All trends are up and Budget is only 5 sessions away therefore much deeper correction is not expected and possibility of higher levels consolidation.
As both selling and consolidation therefore mixed patterns formations between 7707-7754 today and market has to prepare for next decisive post Budget big moves. Let market prepare then will be updated according to intraday charts formations as being done for the last more than 4 years.
Pre-closing Outlook(03-07-2014)
Most time trading between 7710-7740 after first 40 minutes Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel with following technical positions within this range:-
1- Selling patterns formations between 7730-7740
2- Triple bottom supports at lower levels.
1- Selling patterns formations between 7730-7740
2- Triple bottom supports at lower levels.
As sentiment was heated and without force slow up moves with Bearish Rising Channel formation yesterday therefore follow up consolidation was must for further strong rally and its signals seen today. Although signals of consolidation process today but selling patterns formations were also seen therefore possibility of slipping below 7700 can not be ruled out under on going consolidation process.
Mid-session Outlook(03-07-2014)
As selling patterns formations between 7730-7740 therefore possibility of slipping below 7700.
Post-open Outlook(03-07-2014)
As without force slow up moves with Bearish Rising Channel formation yesterday therefore follow up consolidation requirement with the condition of sustaining above 7700 was told in previous Outlooks. Consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel formation seen in first hour today and it is a signal of consolidation process beginning. Let it complete then fresh strong rally will be seen and only one confirmation of sustaining above 7700 is required now.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(03-07-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Jul-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- 5 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Intraday corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 7678-7732
Whole day up moves after strong gap up opening with new life time high formation but slow up moves seen between Bearish Rising Channel therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required tomorrow for sustaining above 7700. As intraday corrections were also seen immediately after some selling therefore it seems that consolidation process is on and expected that rally will remain continued after follow up consolidation.
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1- 5 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Intraday corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 7678-7732
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Whole day up moves after strong gap up opening with new life time high formation but slow up moves seen between Bearish Rising Channel therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required tomorrow for sustaining above 7700. As intraday corrections were also seen immediately after some selling therefore it seems that consolidation process is on and expected that rally will remain continued after follow up consolidation.
Mid-session Outlook-3(01-07-2014)
Although now trading near all time high after lower levels good supports but Selling patterns formations seen between 7697-7711 also and last 3 hours up moves are without force therefore for next strong rally only one confirmation of sustaining above 7700 is required now.
Mid-session Outlook-2(02-07-2014)
Selling patterns formations between 7697-7711 but following supports also today:-
1- 7678-7684 with higher bottom formation.
2- 76907694
1- 7678-7684 with higher bottom formation.
2- 76907694
All trends are up and Bull Bear fight is being seen today at previous top(7700) and finally rally continuation is expected above 7700 after follow up consolidation between 7678-7711.
Mid-session Outlook(02-07-2014)
Although trading near 7700 but selling patterns formations also seen between 7697-7711.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(02-07-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jul-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 7622-7633
2- Minor selling signals between 7635-7644
3- Whole day actual trading between 7622-7649
Firstly 2 hours consolidations and after that next 3 hours minor selling signals within whole day 27 points trading between 7622-7649 therefore some more preparations are required for next decisive moves. As most time today trading between previous resistance range(7626-7673) therefore complete consolidation was required for next decisive up moves above 7673/7700 and its signals seen today but sustaining beyond 7564-7673 should be watched in the coming sessions for next trend confirmations.
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1- Consolidation between 7622-7633
2- Minor selling signals between 7635-7644
3- Whole day actual trading between 7622-7649
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly 2 hours consolidations and after that next 3 hours minor selling signals within whole day 27 points trading between 7622-7649 therefore some more preparations are required for next decisive moves. As most time today trading between previous resistance range(7626-7673) therefore complete consolidation was required for next decisive up moves above 7673/7700 and its signals seen today but sustaining beyond 7564-7673 should be watched in the coming sessions for next trend confirmations.
As consolidation within last resistance range seen today therefore expected that finally rally will be seen above 7673/7700 after follow up consolidations in the coming sessions
Mid-session Outlook(01-07-2014)
Previous resistances were between 7626-7673 and most time trading between this range today but today intraday patterns have not shown any clear formations yet because minor selling signals in last 3 hours after first 2 hours consolidations patterns therefore some more preparations are required for next decisive moves and sustaining beyond 7564-7673 should be watched for next trend confirmations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(01-07-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jun-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- More than 5 hours trading with mixed Patterns formations between 7564-7605
2- Whole day actual trading between 7540-7623
Although correction continuation since 11-06-2014 from 7700 but its completion possibility was told in following lines at 09:02 AM today in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jun 30 to Jul 04,2014):-
Lower levels consolidation with down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of on going correction completion possibility.
Correction completion possibility was told and more than 75 points recovery within first 10 minutes immediately after positive opening today and almost whole day more than 1% positive trading as well as 1.37% up closing today.
More than 5 hours trading between 7564-7605 with mixed Patterns formations today but Indian markets out performed Global cues and psychological studies also indicating buying possibility within this range therefore 1st strong signal of trading and sustaining above highest of this range(7605)
As immediate resistances between 7626-7673 are just above today 5 hours trading range therefore more consolidation is required for valid break out above 7673 and fresh rally above 7700. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 7443-7673 and prepare for next decisive moves within this range. Market will take its own time within this range but finally rally is expected above 7673/7700 after follow up consolidations in the coming sessions/weeks.
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1- More than 5 hours trading with mixed Patterns formations between 7564-7605
2- Whole day actual trading between 7540-7623
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although correction continuation since 11-06-2014 from 7700 but its completion possibility was told in following lines at 09:02 AM today in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jun 30 to Jul 04,2014):-
Lower levels consolidation with down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of on going correction completion possibility.
Correction completion possibility was told and more than 75 points recovery within first 10 minutes immediately after positive opening today and almost whole day more than 1% positive trading as well as 1.37% up closing today.
More than 5 hours trading between 7564-7605 with mixed Patterns formations today but Indian markets out performed Global cues and psychological studies also indicating buying possibility within this range therefore 1st strong signal of trading and sustaining above highest of this range(7605)
As immediate resistances between 7626-7673 are just above today 5 hours trading range therefore more consolidation is required for valid break out above 7673 and fresh rally above 7700. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 7443-7673 and prepare for next decisive moves within this range. Market will take its own time within this range but finally rally is expected above 7673/7700 after follow up consolidations in the coming sessions/weeks.
Mid-session Outlook(30-06-2014)
More than 75 points recovery within first 10 minutes immediately after positive opening and after that trading between 7572-7605 which is just below previous resistances range(7626-7673). Although today intraday patterns are not showing any clear pattern but Indian markets are out performing Global cues and other psychological studies are indicating buying therefore expected that finally Nifty will trade above today highest of at this moment(7605) and will counter above mentioned resistance range(7626-7673)
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jun 30 to Jul 04,2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 23 to Jun 27,2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 Sessions intraday charts
1- Mixed patterns formation and down moves after disappointing news of Gas price revision deferring decision on 26-06-2014
2- 5 Sessions actual trading between 7443-7593
Conclusions from 5 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Mixed patterns formation and down moves after disappointing news of Gas price revision deferring decision on 26-06-2014 therefore Nifty is not prepared for any side decisive moves and firstly has to prepare therefore Nifty will trade between previous week trading range and sustaining beyond this range will be following moves confirmations:-
1- Below 7443 will mean correction continuation with possibility of deeper correction.
2- Above 7593 will mean 1st indication of correction completion because above it strong resistances between 7626-7673 and more consolidation is required for next rally.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jun-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 7483-7506
3- Whole day actual trading between 7483-7538
Lower levels consolidation with down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of on going correction completion possibility.
Detailed analysis of EOD charts has been updated in previous weekly analysis of following topic:-
As no material change in EOD charts during previous week therefore not being updated and may click above topic for EOD charts analysis.
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1- Mixed patterns formation and down moves after disappointing news of Gas price revision deferring decision on 26-06-2014
2- 5 Sessions actual trading between 7443-7593
Conclusions from 5 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Mixed patterns formation and down moves after disappointing news of Gas price revision deferring decision on 26-06-2014 therefore Nifty is not prepared for any side decisive moves and firstly has to prepare therefore Nifty will trade between previous week trading range and sustaining beyond this range will be following moves confirmations:-
1- Below 7443 will mean correction continuation with possibility of deeper correction.
2- Above 7593 will mean 1st indication of correction completion because above it strong resistances between 7626-7673 and more consolidation is required for next rally.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jun-2014):-
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1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 7483-7506
3- Whole day actual trading between 7483-7538
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Lower levels consolidation with down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of on going correction completion possibility.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Detailed analysis of EOD charts has been updated in previous weekly analysis of following topic:-
As no material change in EOD charts during previous week therefore not being updated and may click above topic for EOD charts analysis.
Bullish Flag formation in last 16 sessions correction therefore expected that finally rally will be seen above 16 sessions highest(7700) after follow up consolidations and on going correction completion as well as deeper correction will not be seen below 16 sessions lowest(7443).
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(27-06-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Jun-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling immediately after opening
2- Sharp fall
3- Follow up between 7515-7540
4- Sharp fall again
5- Whole day actual trading between 7482-7570
As disappointing news of Gas price revision deferring decision therefore selling developed immediately after opening and follow up selling also seen. As soon as intraday charts started to show clear selling patterns then following lines were told yesterday at 01:42PM in Mid-session Outlook:-
Follow up selling also seen between 7515-7540 in last 4 hours therefore testing possibility of following 2 immediate supports:-
1- 7488
2- 7441
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1- Selling immediately after opening
2- Sharp fall
3- Follow up between 7515-7540
4- Sharp fall again
5- Whole day actual trading between 7482-7570
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As disappointing news of Gas price revision deferring decision therefore selling developed immediately after opening and follow up selling also seen. As soon as intraday charts started to show clear selling patterns then following lines were told yesterday at 01:42PM in Mid-session Outlook:-
Follow up selling also seen between 7515-7540 in last 4 hours therefore testing possibility of following 2 immediate supports:-
1- 7488
2- 7441
Correction continuation and no signal of its completion yet,above mentioned 1st support has been tested and 2nd support testing possibility can not be ruled out. Let consolidation patterns develop then on going correction completion will be considered otherwise correction is on and its continuation is expected.
Mid-session Outlook(26-06-2014)
As disappointing news of Gas price revision deferring decision therefore selling developed immediately after opening and follow up selling also seen between 7515-7540 in last 4 hours therefore testing possibility of following 2 immediate supports:-
1- 7488
2- 7441
1- 7488
2- 7441
Post-open Outlook-2(26-06-2014)
Sharp down in last minutes and Nifty is now trading .68% down,it means that Indian markets are completely disappointed from Gas price revision deferring decision. Next supports are at 7488 and sustaining it beyond will be confirmation of deeper correction or its completion therefore should be firstly watched now.
Post-open Outlook(26-06-2014)
As disappointing decision of deferring Gas price revision for 3 months by Govt. yesterday therefore heavyweight RIL,ONGC and other oil stocks are 2.5% to 5.5% down but benchmark Indices are minor down. Although Indian markets are Bullish but certainly this news is surprising because high expectations from Modi Government and market reaction has to be firstly understood and then final view will be formed accordingly.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-06-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jun-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Whole day actual trading between 7557-7589
Following conclusive line was told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-06-2014)
As was told 100% same happened today and whole day sideways consolidation in quiet trading within 32 points range between 7557.05-6589.25 today.
Although whole day down moves but today intraday trading patterns are not showing selling formations and consolidation pattern of "whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel" formation also seen today therefore emergence of fresh up moves possibility in the coming sessions. Technically expected that Nifty will not sustain below today lowest(7557.05) and finally rally will be seen above today highest(7592)
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1- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Whole day actual trading between 7557-7589
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following conclusive line was told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-06-2014)
Consolidation in sideways quiet market is expected tomorrow
As was told 100% same happened today and whole day sideways consolidation in quiet trading within 32 points range between 7557.05-6589.25 today.
Although whole day down moves but today intraday trading patterns are not showing selling formations and consolidation pattern of "whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel" formation also seen today therefore emergence of fresh up moves possibility in the coming sessions. Technically expected that Nifty will not sustain below today lowest(7557.05) and finally rally will be seen above today highest(7592)
As disappointing decision of deferring Gas price revision and status quo on for 3 months by Govt. today therefore Indian markets may firstly react negative tomorrow but sustaining beyond today trading range(7557-7589) will be next decisive moves confirmation and should be firstly watched tomorrow.
Mid-session Outlook(25-06-2014)
Following conclusive line was told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-06-2014)
As was told 100% same happened today and first 4 hours sideways quiet trading within 25 points range between 7564.05-6589.25 today. Selling patterns formation between 7580-7592 yesterday and today trading seen just below 7580 also but today trading patterns are not showing selling but consolidation indications from today intraday charts and emergenece of up moves possibility. Although now trading near the lower levels of the day but expected that Nifty will not sustain below today lowest(7564.05) and finally will rally above today highest(7592)
Consolidation in sideways quiet market is expected tomorrow
As was told 100% same happened today and first 4 hours sideways quiet trading within 25 points range between 7564.05-6589.25 today. Selling patterns formation between 7580-7592 yesterday and today trading seen just below 7580 also but today trading patterns are not showing selling but consolidation indications from today intraday charts and emergenece of up moves possibility. Although now trading near the lower levels of the day but expected that Nifty will not sustain below today lowest(7564.05) and finally will rally above today highest(7592)
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