Mid-session Outlook(11-02-2014)

Firstly slipping after positive opening but lower levels intraday supports and consolidation between 6054-6065. As Consolidation and supports was seen within this range yesterday therefore its a sign of strength and sustaining above following levels will be strong signal of rally:-

1- 6064-6071(Selling between this range yesterday)
2- 6086-6097( Next Resistance range)

Again repeating that market takes its own complete time in the process of taking positions and once after its formation decisive up moves will start. As all financial markets are tend to react on news also therefore expected after finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations between 5934-6097 amid whatsoever news led sentiments.

Pre-open Outlook(11-02-2014)

All the Asian markets are in Green and Hang Seng is more than 1% up therefore sentiment is good and positive opening will be seen in Indian markets. As selling between 6064-6071 therefore complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 6071 and next resistance range(6059-6097). Some down moves are possible in consolidation process but finally rally continuation is expected after follow up consolidations between 5934-6097 amid whatsoever news led sentiments.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(11-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly Down Moves in Bullish Falling Channel in first hour.
2- Consolidation and supports between 6053-6060
3- Selling between 6064-6071
4- Whole day actual trading between 6047-6083

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although lower levels supports with consolidation pattern of Bullish Falling Channel but higher levels selling also between resistance ranges(6059-6097) therefore some down moves towards next supports(5992) will be seen. 

Indian markets are preparing for next trend and it will take its own time because both higher levels strong resistances and good supports at lower levels also. Long Term Trend is sideways and Nifty hovered around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) in previous week,until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Bullish markets hopes will remain alive and expected that finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations near about next supports range(5934-5992)

Mid-session Outlook-2(10-02-2014)

More than 4 hours 25 points narrow range sideways trading between 6052-6077 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling also therefore expected that Nifty will trade some more time within and near about this range and valid break out of this range will be beginning towards next trend. 

Mid-session Outlook(10-02-2014)

Technical positions of Nifty is as follows:-

1  Supports between 5934-5992.
2- Resistances between 6059-6097. 
3- Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term is sideways.

As multiple resistances developed between 6130-6358 during 40 sessions therefore this range broken down and market require complete time for decisive rally after good consolidations and supports in previous week below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002).

Although Nifty slipped below 6059 but minor intraday support and consolidation seen between 6052-6062 and now trading above 6059 for the last 1 hour. Firstly sustaining beyond following ranmge should be watched for first indication and next big trend:-

1- 6059-6097
2- 5934-6097
3- 5934-6130

Expected that finally up moves will be seen after follow up consolidations within mentioned ranges but follow up consolidation is must because Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term is sideways.

Post-open Outlook(10-02-2014)

As Nifty is trading between resistance ranges(6059-6074 and 6086-6097) and require complete consolidations therefore slipped immediately after opening. Nifty will firstly prepare for next decisive moves between(6059-6097) and sustaining beyond this range should be watched for the beginning of next trend.

Expected that finally up moves will be seen after follow up consolidations within mentioned ranges but sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched because Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term Trend is sideways.

Bullish Week Ahead
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 10 to Feb 14,2014)

Following lines were told on 02-02-2014 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2014)

last hopes of Bulls are as follows:-

1- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)
2- Bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45)

Slipping below above 2 levels can not be ruled out but sustaining below 6000/5972 is must for trend reversal and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

As was told same happened and Nifty slipped below 6000/5972 and last hope of Bulls remained alive  through not sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA and Weekly closing above it.

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358.

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
2- 18 Sessions trading between 6130-6358 with triple top formations
3- Supports at 200-Day EMA in last 7 sessions.
4- 200-Day EMA(today at 6002)

Conclusions from EOD charts analysis 

Intermediate Trem Trend is down,Short term is up and Long Term is sideways through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) in previous week.  Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358 and sustaining above 6130 is must for maintaining of:-

1- Wave-v of Wave-3.
2- Whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013)
3- Intermediate and Long Trem Trend turning up

Multiple resistances between 6130-6358 and strongest resistances are at 6158 because triple top formation there. Let Nifty sustain above 6130 then resistances will be updated.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 31 to Feb 07,2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 6 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6086-6097 on 31-01-2014
2- Selling between 6059-6074 on 03-02-2014
3- Supports and consolidation between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
4- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014
6- Consolidation between 5966-5992 06-02-2014 
7- Intraday volatility with lower levels supports and consolidation but higher levels selling also on 07-02-2014 
8- 6 Sessions actual trading between 5934-6097 

Conclusions from 6 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Firstly slipping after higher levels selling but lower levels good supports and consolidation also in 6 Previous sessions therefore sustaining beyond 6 previous sessions range(5934-6097) will be next trend strong indication.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling at higher levels.
2- Consolidation patterns of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel formations
3- Supports at lower levels between 6031-6048
4- Whole day actual trading between 6031-6079

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Volatile day with lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations but higher levels selling also therefore follow up trading positions and sustaining beyond intraday trading range(6031-6079) should also be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for next trend first indication.  

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Although Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) but nicely consolidated and got good supports below it as well therefore firstly up moves are expected in the coming week and sustaining above following resistances will be beginning of fresh rally:-

1- Resistance range(6059-6074)
2- Resistance range(6086-6097)

Pull Back Rally beginning with Weekly Bullish Hammer Candle formation in previous week and until Nifty will not sustain below the lowest(5934) of previous week till then next down moves will not be considered. As complete follow up consolidation is must for rally above 6358 therefore expected that coming week will be sideways between 5934-6358 and prepare for next big trend because Indian markets have to understand the implications of following 2 contradictory happenings:-

1- Tapering of QE3 by $10 billion per month
2- Narendrea Modi clear victory in Lok Sabha Elections

Narendrea Modi clear victory will mean strong rally and its possibilities are increasing, its happening will mean strong rally above all time high but implications of QE3 tapering has to be seen and understood also.

Finally Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) and Bullish Waves structure saved in previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will remain Bullish in next week.

Pre-closing Outlook(07-02-2014)

Now Indian markets are range bound between 5934-6097 and follow up moves between 5992-6059 and sustaining it beyond should also be firstly watched for next trend first indications.

Nifty slipped below fast after selling below 6059 but immediate supports also seen at 6037 today. Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected despite sharp fall and markets will take its complete time for consolidations.

Mid-session Outlook-3(07-02-2014)

As follow up selling seen below 6059 today therefore down moves towards and below next supports(5992) will be seen.

Mid-session Outlook-2(07-02-2014)

As higher levels resistances therefore following line was told in both previous Outlooks:-

Market will take its complete time

Sharp fall seen after some selling in last 1 hours because selling developed in mentioned resistance range. Strong supports developed at lower levels in last 3 sessions and now Indian markets will be understood range bound between 5934-6097.

Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected despite sharp fall and markets will take its complete time for consolidations but follow up moves between 5992-6059 should also be firstly watched for next trend confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(07-02-2014)

Although Nifty slipped after opening and now trading near the lower levels of today but today intraday charts have not shown as such selling patterns as well today first 2 hours down moves may be for consolidations because resistances up to 6097.

Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected but markets will take its complete time for consolidations.

Post-open Outlook(07-02-2014)

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(07-02-2014)

Today started rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions and correction completion strong indication will be after sustaining above next immediate resistance range(6059-6074)

Nifty traded most time between mentioned immediate resistance range(6059-6074) after gap up strong opening and slipped below it also but sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched now. Market will take its complete time for any sustained rally above 6100 because of following 2 resistances:-

1- Resistance range(6059-6074)
2- Resistance range(6086-6097)

Sharp Fall is impact of Bearish Rising Wedge formation

This topic was deleted by mistake and being reproduced

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(06-02-2014)

Bearish Rising Wedge formation also seen in last 3 hours therefore some more consolidation and sustaining above 6001 is must

As Bearish Rising Wedge formation yesterday therefore Nifty could not sustain above it and fast slipped within its range in 1/2 minutes after the start of down moves today.

Following lines were told in previous Outlook and should be kept in mind:-

1- more consolidation and sustaining above 6001 is must for the confirmation of Long Term trend remaining up
2- Rally continuation hopes above 6000 are still alive and until Nifty will not sustain below 5934 till then next decisive down moves will not be considered. 
3- Sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 6001) will be strong indication of on going correction completion and firstly should be watched in the coming sessions for next decisive trend
4- Following supports seen below it in last 2 sessions which are the hopes of Bulls:-
a- Consolidation and supports between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
b- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(07-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6037-6048
2- Consolidation between 5966-5992 
3- Mixed Patterns between 6024-6040 
4- Whole day actual trading between 5966-6048

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Although sharp down moves after Some selling at higher levels but continuous up moves also in last 5 hours with lower levels good consolidation therefore rally continuation is expected after some more higher levels consolidation because mixed Patterns also seen between 6024-6040.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 03 to Feb 06,2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels supports with higher bottom formations in last 3 sessions.
2- Selling at higher levels
3- Hovering around Long Term trends decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) for the last 4 sessions.

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Although some selling at higher levels in last 4 sessions but lower levels good consolidation and  supports with higher bottom formations in last 3 sessions also therefore it is clear that Indian markets gained strength near about 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) for the last 4 sessions. As Nifty hovered around 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) and closed above it also in last 4 sessions therefore more selling in required for valid break out of 200-Day EMA and until Nifty will not sustain below 5934 till then next decisive down moves will not be considered.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Today started rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions and correction completion strong indication will be after sustaining above next immediate resistance range(6059-6074)

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(06-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975
2- Bearish Rising Wedge formation 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5963-6022

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Short and Intermediate term trends are down and  Long Term trend is at stake through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6001) for the last 3 sessions. Following supports seen below it in last 2 sessions which are the hopes of Bulls:-

1- Consolidation and supports between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
2- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014

Certainly follow up supports and consolidation with higher bottom formation today but Bearish Rising Wedge formation also seen in last 3 hours therefore some more consolidation and sustaining above 6001 is must for the confirmation of Long Term trend remaining up. 

Firstly sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA will be watched in the coming sessions because its breaking down will mean whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013) will be under review and re counting of waves will be required in breaking down situation. 

Rally continuation hopes above 6000 are still alive and until Nifty will not sustain below 5934 till then next decisive down moves will not be considered. Sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 6001) will be strong indication of on going correction completion and firstly should be watched in the coming sessions for next decisive trend. 

Pre-closing Outlook(05-02-2014)

Good recovery from lower levels and now trading near the higher levels of today but selling patterns indications in last 3 hours intraday charts also therefore some volatility can not be ruled out tomorrow and sustaining above 6000 should be firstly watched tomorrow for decisive up moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(05-02-2014)

Follow up support and consolidation again seen between 5963-5975 today and certainly emergence of rally expectations after correction completion as well as and sustaining above 6000 will be its confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(05-02-2014)

Indian markets are preparing for Long Term trend near about its decider decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) and Supports with consolidation seen below it between 5934-5954 yesterday. If follow up selling get confirmations near about 6000 then its turning down 100% confirmation will be below 5934 and huge down moves will be seen in that situation. 

Market will take its own time in this process and hope of  a rally above 6000 is  still alive after supports and consolidation between 5934-5954 yesterday.

Although own moves immediately after opening today but today intraday charts have not given any side confirmation yet therefore just wait and watch policy at this moment.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(05-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Supports and consolidation between 5934-5954.
2- Up moves with consolidations
3- Whole day actual trading between 5934-6017.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most depressing Global cues led huge gap down opening but firstly lower levels supports and consolidation and after that up moves with consolidations in last 3 hours therefore emergence of correction completion first signal. As 40 Sessions trading range(6130-6415) broken down in previous week and slipping below Long Term trend decider 200-Day EMA also in both previous sessions of current week therefore certainly Long Term up trend is at stake and complete consolidation is required for its survival. Still hope of  a rally  because Nifty closed above 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) and if Nifty sustains above it in the coming sessions then that will be will be strong signal of correction completion.

Lot of more consolidation is required for correction completion and follow up consolidation as well as sustaining above 6000 will be correction completion and fresh rally confirmation therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(04-02-2014)

Lower levels supports between 5934-5950 with consolidation patterns formations as well but lot of more consolidation is required for correction completion. Follow up consolidation and sustaining above 6000 will be strong indication of correction completion.

Post-open Outlook(04-02-2014)

As all the Asian markets are in deep Red after more than 2% down closing of US markets therefore huge gap down opening in Indian markets and trading well below Long Term Trend Decider 6000 which is certainly at stake and only sustaining below it should be watched now for its confirmations because today breaking down is most depressing sentiment led.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(04-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 3 hours selling between 6059-6074.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last 3 hours. 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5995-6074

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 3 hours selling and after that last 3 hours continuous down moves as well as slipping below 6000 where 200-Day EMA also lying therefore emergence of Long Term Trend turning down risk. As last 3 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore first signal of down moves stopping and Pull Back Rally as well. If follow up consolidation develops near about 200-Day EMA then correction completion will be considered after sustaining above 200-Day EMA   

Finally sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA(today at 5999) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for the confirmations of Long Term trend. 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (31-Jan-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions between 6130-6415.
9- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
10- 4 Previous sessions trading below the lowest of 40 sessions range
11- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6415 and slipped below the lowest of Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95) with last 4 trading and closing below the lowest of 40 sessions range.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jan-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling patterns formation between 6086-6097
3- Whole day actual trading between 6068-6097

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good selling patterns formation at higher levels therefore firstly down moves are expected despite closing near the higher levels of the day and until Nifty will not sustain above the highest(6,097.85) of the day till then next up moves will not be considered.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Intermediate Term and Short Term trends are down but Long Term trend is still up and that will be down after sustaining below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6000). As market is in downward direction and 40 Sessions trading range has been broken down in previous week therefore last hopes of Bulls are as follows:-  

1- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)
2- Bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45)

Slipping below above 2 levels can not be ruled out but sustaining below 6000/5972 is must for trend reversal and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions because follow 2 fundamentals will decide next trend and Indian markets will prepare for Long Term trend amid following 2 contradictory news:-

1- Tapering of QE3 by $10 billion per month
2- Narendrea Modi clear victory in Lok Sabha Elections

Narendrea Modi clear victory will mean strong rally and much higher levels above all time high but implications of QE3 tapering has to be seen and understood also.

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-02-2014

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6131
R2 6114
R1 6101
Avg 6084
S1 6071
S2 6054
S3 6041

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6119     Trgt 2
H5 6112     Trgt 1
H4 6105     Long breakout
H3 6097     Go Short
H2 6094
H1 6091
L1 6086
L2 6083
L3 6080     Long
L4 6072     Short Breakout
L5 6065     Trgt 1
L6 6058     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-02-2014

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6178
R2 6156
R1 6134
Avg 6112
S1 6090
S2 6068
S3 6046

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6156     Trgt 2
H5 6146     Trgt 1
H4 6136     Long breakout
H3 6124     Go Short
H2 6120
H1 6116
L1 6107
L2 6103
L3 6099     Long
L4 6087     Short Breakout
L5 6077     Trgt 1
L6 6067     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-02-2014

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 10465
R2 10390
R1 10333
Avg 10258
S1 10201
S2 10126
S3 10069

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10409     Trgt 2
H5 10378     Trgt 1
H4 10348     Long breakout
H3 10312     Go Short
H2 10300
H1 10288
L1 10263
L2 10251
L3 10239     Long
L4 10203     Short Breakout
L5 10173     Trgt 1
L6 10142     Trgt 2

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jan-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly huge gap down opening after FOMC tapering decision.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
3- Sharp up in last hour.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6027-6082

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

All the Asian markets moved into deep Red after the tapering decision of FOMC yesterday therefore gap down opening in Indian markets and more than 5 hours continuous down moves but in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves in last hour.

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is today at 5999 and consolidation pattern of  Bullish Falling Channel seen just above it today which is a strong signal of supports. Follow up moves and sustaining beyond today lowest(6027) as well as 200-Day EMA(5999) should be watched for the survival of Long Term Trend.

Finally sustaining above 200-Day EMA after follow up consolidation will mean Wave-3 correction completion and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions because sustaining below 200-Day EMA will mean breaking down of Waves structure and resultant exercise of Waves recounting.

At present only correction is being understood and expected that it will finally complete near about 200-Day EMA. 

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(30-Jan-2014)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Nifty P/E Ratio(30-Jan-2014): 17.65
Nifty P/B Ratio(30-Jan-2014):  2.87
Dividend Yield (30-Jan-2014):  1.54

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   838
BSE Declines : 1,749
NSE Advances :   352
NSE Declines : 1,086

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 125,150(33.59%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- 793,300(%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 439,950(55.99%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- 842,400(21.29%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(Feb)- 1,129,550(120.16%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(Feb)- 527,000(24.95%)

Nifty- 6200  CE(Feb)- 571,900(31.72%)
Nifty- 6200  PE(Feb)- -241,050(-10.17%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,498.25(-149.05 Points & -0.72%)
Nifty- closed at 6,073.70(-46.55 Points & -0.76%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,371.55(-102.55 Points & -1.37%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,127.95(-50.15 Points & -1.58%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6149
R2 6115
R1 6094
Avg 6060
S1 6039
S2 6005
S3 5984

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6128     Trgt 2
H5 6115     Trgt 1
H4 6103     Long breakout
H3 6088     Go Short
H2 6083
H1 6078
L1 6067
L2 6062
L3 6057     Long
L4 6042     Short Breakout
L5 6030     Trgt 1
L6 6017     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6174
R2 6143
R1 6123
Avg 6092
S1 6072
S2 6041
S3 6021

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6154     Trgt 2
H5 6142     Trgt 1
H4 6131     Long breakout
H3 6117     Go Short
H2 6112
H1 6107
L1 6098
L2 6093
L3 6088     Long
L4 6074     Short Breakout
L5 6063     Trgt 1
L6 6051     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 10561
R2 10468
R1 10346
Avg 10253
S1 10131
S2 10038
S3 9916

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10440     Trgt 2
H5 10391     Trgt 1
H4 10342     Long breakout
H3 10283     Go Short
H2 10263
H1 10243
L1 10204
L2 10184
L3 10164     Long
L4 10105     Short Breakout
L5 10056     Trgt 1
L6 10007     Trgt 2

Post-open Outlook(30-01-2014)

Although the news of $10 billion tapering by FOMC was globally well discounted but all the Asian markets moved into Red after same decision yesterday night and Indian markets are also participating Global weakness through more than 1% down trading. 30 sessions trading range(6130-6415) broken down today and next supports are lying at 200-Day EMA(today at 5999),its testing can not be ruled out. 

Wave-3 is on and recent down moves are being considered its correction only and finally sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA should be watched for Long Term Trend confirmation which is still up  

Pre-open Outlook(30-01-2014)

As all the Asian markets are in deep Red after the tapering decision of FOMC yesterday therefore gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets. Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is today at 5999 and its testing can not be ruled out.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(30-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Jan-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6159-6169
2- First 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
3- Sharp down moves in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 6121-6169

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the lowest levels of the day but first 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore finally up moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-2(29-01-2014)

Down moves seen after higher levels selling but some supports also seen above 6140. Today and previous 2 sessions trading between 6086-6170 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched for next big trend confirmations and that may be seen on Expiry day tomorrow because market will react on FOMC announcements also

Mid-session Outlook(29-01-2014)

Although good gains immediately after opening but selling at higher levels today and valid break out of 6086-6170 should be firstly watched now for next moves confirmations because both buying and selling seen between this range today and yesterday.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(29-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Pre RBI Credit policy mixed Patterns between 6142-6163.
2- Sharp fall after RBI Credit policy.  
2- Consolidation patterns formation and supports between 6086-6122.
4- Last more than 4 hours up moves with consolidation and Bullish Falling Channel formations.
5- Whole day actual trading between 6086-6163.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although sharp fall after RBI hiking Repo rate by 25 BPS but after that lower levels good supports and consolidation as well as last more than 4 hours up moves with consolidation and Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore strong signal of up moves in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-3(28-01-2014)

Lower levels consolidation patterns formation and supports seen today

Mid-session Outlook-2(28-01-2014)

Although most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully and now trading below it also but confirmation of sustaining below 6130 is required yet for testing of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) because broken down was Repo rate hikes news led. 

Mid-session Outlook(28-01-2014)

As RBI hikes Repo rate by 25 BPS and defied all expectation of pause therefore most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully. Now last hope for Bulls is non broken down of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) and its testing can not be ruled out.  

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(28-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Selling patterns formation between 6170-6178 
3- Whole day actual trading between 6130-6188

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly most depressed sentiment led huge gap down opening but after that whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of correction completion signal despite closing near the lowest level of the day.

Supports at 6130 was told more than 50 times in previous sessions and today lowest was at 6130.25 despite most dampened market mood. As Bullish Falling Channel like consolidation pattern seen therefore sustaining beyond 6130 should be firstly watched because slipping below 6130 can not be ruled out if sentiment remains depressed.  

Long Term Trend is still up and previous 2 sessions down moves will be understood only correction and expected that Nifty will not sustain below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5996) as well as finally Impulsive Wave-3 rally will remain continued above all time high.

Now only correction completion confirmation is required for fresh rally beginning and expected that market will get supports between 5996-6130 as well as Nifty will not sustain below 5996 in worst sentimental situation also.

Let on going consolidation complete then rally will start and firstly sustaining beyond 6130 as well as finally sustaining beyond 5996 should be watched for correction confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(27-01-2014)

As all European markets could not sustain and slipped sharply after flat to positive opening therefore sentiment dampened further and Nifty is hovering around 6157 after slipping from higher levels. Next supports are above 6130 and deeper correction will be seen after sustaining below it therefore finally sustaining beyond 6130-6157 should be watched for correction completion/continuation confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(27-01-2014)

Although firstly slipping after huge gap down opening but today intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations above 6157. As next supports above 6130 and today consolidation above it therefore last Friday started correction completion first signal generation today. Follow up moves and finally sustaining above 6157 will mean up moves in the coming sesions towards next resistances between 6267-6294.

Pre-open Outlook(27-01-2014)

As all the Asian markets are 1% to 2.65% down therefore sentiment is completely depressed today morning and huge gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets. Sustaining beyond  27 sessions lowest(6130) should be watched now for first strong signal of deeper correction and trend reversal confirmation will be finally sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5995).

Detailed technical analysis have already been updated in previous topic.

Volatile Week between 6130-6415
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 27 to Jan 31,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 with descending triangle pattern formation in last 27 sessions between 6130-6415.
9- 200-Day EMA(today at 5995)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Long Term trend is up,Short Term trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways for the last 27 sessions between 6130-6415 with descending triangle pattern formation and valid break out  of this range will decide next big trend. 

Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections has turned at stake due to the possibility of BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014. 

As opinion polls results in previous week have boosted BJP’s chances in 2014 Lok Sabha elections therefore expected that now Nifty will remain range bound between 27 sessions trading range(6130-6415) and prepare for next decisive moves. Wave-3 continuation towards minimum target of Nifty at 6724.60. Its calculation has already been updated in following topic on 21-10-2013:-

Minimum target of Nifty at 6724.60

Now expected that Nifty will prepare for 6724.60 between 6130-6415 and next week may be highly volatile because:-

1- Week may begin will deep down moves because 2% crash in US markets last Friday.
2- RBI Credit Policy on 28-01-2014 and expectation no change in Repo Rates.
3- FOMC mmet on 28-29 January and Indian markets will react on its announcements 30-01-2014 which is derivative expiry day.

Long Term trend is up and Wave-3 is on toward 6724.60 therefore expected that Indian markets will prepare between 6130-6415 for up moves above 6415 in the coming volatile week.

Mid-session Outlook(24-01-2014)

Indian markets are not trending but sideways for the last 39 sessions between 6130-6415 and today  trading within 1st strong indication range(6232-6356) after gap down opening due to depressing Global cues. As Dow's Futures slipped 48 points in last half hour and now trading 54 points down therefore Indian markets slipped and now trading the lowest levels of today.

Very Short Term correction started today and firstly sustaining beyond next support(6232) should be watched for its continuation/completion.   

Pre-open Outlook(24-01-2014)

Dow Jones closed 175 points down yesterday therefore sentiment may be depressed today morning and resultant weaker opening will be seen in Indian markets.

Finally sustaining beyond following trading ranges should be watched for:-

1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 6325-6335
2- Up moves with consolidations.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6325-6355

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although all the Global markets were in negative zone and some were in deep Red as well as Dow Futures was also down by more than 70 points but Indian markets outperformed and traded first 3 hours with minor losses. As firstly lower levels and after that up moves in consolidation patterns therefore emergence of rally continuation hopes. 

Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections had turned doubtful due to BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014. As Aam Admi Party popularity has reduced sharply due to Arvind Kejriwal's dharna and his governance incompetency therefore again emergence of strong Government formations under the leadership on Narendra Modi and resultant Indian markets has started to show strength and started higher levels consolidations.

26 sessions trading between 6130-6415 with following Resistances positions:-

1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387

1st Resistance(6356) has almost been cleared today with today highest formation at 6355.60 but more follow up consolidation is required and once sustaining above 6387 will mean Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation above all time high. 

As busy therefore Mid-session Outlooks could not be updated today