Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6149
R2 6115
R1 6094
Avg 6060
S1 6039
S2 6005
S3 5984

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6128     Trgt 2
H5 6115     Trgt 1
H4 6103     Long breakout
H3 6088     Go Short
H2 6083
H1 6078
L1 6067
L2 6062
L3 6057     Long
L4 6042     Short Breakout
L5 6030     Trgt 1
L6 6017     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6174
R2 6143
R1 6123
Avg 6092
S1 6072
S2 6041
S3 6021

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6154     Trgt 2
H5 6142     Trgt 1
H4 6131     Long breakout
H3 6117     Go Short
H2 6112
H1 6107
L1 6098
L2 6093
L3 6088     Long
L4 6074     Short Breakout
L5 6063     Trgt 1
L6 6051     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 10561
R2 10468
R1 10346
Avg 10253
S1 10131
S2 10038
S3 9916

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10440     Trgt 2
H5 10391     Trgt 1
H4 10342     Long breakout
H3 10283     Go Short
H2 10263
H1 10243
L1 10204
L2 10184
L3 10164     Long
L4 10105     Short Breakout
L5 10056     Trgt 1
L6 10007     Trgt 2

Post-open Outlook(30-01-2014)

Although the news of $10 billion tapering by FOMC was globally well discounted but all the Asian markets moved into Red after same decision yesterday night and Indian markets are also participating Global weakness through more than 1% down trading. 30 sessions trading range(6130-6415) broken down today and next supports are lying at 200-Day EMA(today at 5999),its testing can not be ruled out. 

Wave-3 is on and recent down moves are being considered its correction only and finally sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA should be watched for Long Term Trend confirmation which is still up  

Pre-open Outlook(30-01-2014)

As all the Asian markets are in deep Red after the tapering decision of FOMC yesterday therefore gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets. Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is today at 5999 and its testing can not be ruled out.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(30-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6159-6169
2- First 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
3- Sharp down moves in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 6121-6169

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the lowest levels of the day but first 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore finally up moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-2(29-01-2014)

Down moves seen after higher levels selling but some supports also seen above 6140. Today and previous 2 sessions trading between 6086-6170 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched for next big trend confirmations and that may be seen on Expiry day tomorrow because market will react on FOMC announcements also

Mid-session Outlook(29-01-2014)

Although good gains immediately after opening but selling at higher levels today and valid break out of 6086-6170 should be firstly watched now for next moves confirmations because both buying and selling seen between this range today and yesterday.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(29-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Pre RBI Credit policy mixed Patterns between 6142-6163.
2- Sharp fall after RBI Credit policy.  
2- Consolidation patterns formation and supports between 6086-6122.
4- Last more than 4 hours up moves with consolidation and Bullish Falling Channel formations.
5- Whole day actual trading between 6086-6163.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although sharp fall after RBI hiking Repo rate by 25 BPS but after that lower levels good supports and consolidation as well as last more than 4 hours up moves with consolidation and Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore strong signal of up moves in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-3(28-01-2014)

Lower levels consolidation patterns formation and supports seen today

Mid-session Outlook-2(28-01-2014)

Although most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully and now trading below it also but confirmation of sustaining below 6130 is required yet for testing of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) because broken down was Repo rate hikes news led. 

Mid-session Outlook(28-01-2014)

As RBI hikes Repo rate by 25 BPS and defied all expectation of pause therefore most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully. Now last hope for Bulls is non broken down of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) and its testing can not be ruled out.  

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(28-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Selling patterns formation between 6170-6178 
3- Whole day actual trading between 6130-6188

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly most depressed sentiment led huge gap down opening but after that whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of correction completion signal despite closing near the lowest level of the day.

Supports at 6130 was told more than 50 times in previous sessions and today lowest was at 6130.25 despite most dampened market mood. As Bullish Falling Channel like consolidation pattern seen therefore sustaining beyond 6130 should be firstly watched because slipping below 6130 can not be ruled out if sentiment remains depressed.  

Long Term Trend is still up and previous 2 sessions down moves will be understood only correction and expected that Nifty will not sustain below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5996) as well as finally Impulsive Wave-3 rally will remain continued above all time high.

Now only correction completion confirmation is required for fresh rally beginning and expected that market will get supports between 5996-6130 as well as Nifty will not sustain below 5996 in worst sentimental situation also.

Let on going consolidation complete then rally will start and firstly sustaining beyond 6130 as well as finally sustaining beyond 5996 should be watched for correction confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(27-01-2014)

As all European markets could not sustain and slipped sharply after flat to positive opening therefore sentiment dampened further and Nifty is hovering around 6157 after slipping from higher levels. Next supports are above 6130 and deeper correction will be seen after sustaining below it therefore finally sustaining beyond 6130-6157 should be watched for correction completion/continuation confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(27-01-2014)

Although firstly slipping after huge gap down opening but today intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations above 6157. As next supports above 6130 and today consolidation above it therefore last Friday started correction completion first signal generation today. Follow up moves and finally sustaining above 6157 will mean up moves in the coming sesions towards next resistances between 6267-6294.

Pre-open Outlook(27-01-2014)

As all the Asian markets are 1% to 2.65% down therefore sentiment is completely depressed today morning and huge gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets. Sustaining beyond  27 sessions lowest(6130) should be watched now for first strong signal of deeper correction and trend reversal confirmation will be finally sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5995).

Detailed technical analysis have already been updated in previous topic.

Volatile Week between 6130-6415
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 27 to Jan 31,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 with descending triangle pattern formation in last 27 sessions between 6130-6415.
9- 200-Day EMA(today at 5995)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Long Term trend is up,Short Term trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways for the last 27 sessions between 6130-6415 with descending triangle pattern formation and valid break out  of this range will decide next big trend. 

Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections has turned at stake due to the possibility of BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014. 

As opinion polls results in previous week have boosted BJP’s chances in 2014 Lok Sabha elections therefore expected that now Nifty will remain range bound between 27 sessions trading range(6130-6415) and prepare for next decisive moves. Wave-3 continuation towards minimum target of Nifty at 6724.60. Its calculation has already been updated in following topic on 21-10-2013:-

Minimum target of Nifty at 6724.60

Now expected that Nifty will prepare for 6724.60 between 6130-6415 and next week may be highly volatile because:-

1- Week may begin will deep down moves because 2% crash in US markets last Friday.
2- RBI Credit Policy on 28-01-2014 and expectation no change in Repo Rates.
3- FOMC mmet on 28-29 January and Indian markets will react on its announcements 30-01-2014 which is derivative expiry day.

Long Term trend is up and Wave-3 is on toward 6724.60 therefore expected that Indian markets will prepare between 6130-6415 for up moves above 6415 in the coming volatile week.

Mid-session Outlook(24-01-2014)

Indian markets are not trending but sideways for the last 39 sessions between 6130-6415 and today  trading within 1st strong indication range(6232-6356) after gap down opening due to depressing Global cues. As Dow's Futures slipped 48 points in last half hour and now trading 54 points down therefore Indian markets slipped and now trading the lowest levels of today.

Very Short Term correction started today and firstly sustaining beyond next support(6232) should be watched for its continuation/completion.   

Pre-open Outlook(24-01-2014)

Dow Jones closed 175 points down yesterday therefore sentiment may be depressed today morning and resultant weaker opening will be seen in Indian markets.

Finally sustaining beyond following trading ranges should be watched for:-

1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 6325-6335
2- Up moves with consolidations.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6325-6355

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although all the Global markets were in negative zone and some were in deep Red as well as Dow Futures was also down by more than 70 points but Indian markets outperformed and traded first 3 hours with minor losses. As firstly lower levels and after that up moves in consolidation patterns therefore emergence of rally continuation hopes. 

Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections had turned doubtful due to BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014. As Aam Admi Party popularity has reduced sharply due to Arvind Kejriwal's dharna and his governance incompetency therefore again emergence of strong Government formations under the leadership on Narendra Modi and resultant Indian markets has started to show strength and started higher levels consolidations.

26 sessions trading between 6130-6415 with following Resistances positions:-

1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387

1st Resistance(6356) has almost been cleared today with today highest formation at 6355.60 but more follow up consolidation is required and once sustaining above 6387 will mean Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation above all time high.