Nifty recovered 65 points from lower levels within 15 minutes after loosing more than 130 points within first 2 hours. It is called huge volatility for cutting of small traders both side stop losses and will be better to wait for stabilising of market and taking decisive trading positions.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook(01-08-2013)
Corrective Wave-C continuation and Pull Back Rally immediately fused after strong recovery today therefore it is clear weakness signal As consolidation and lower levels supports between 5677-5720 yesterday therefore market will trade within this range,market could could not sustain at higher levels and Corrective Wave-C continuation therefore slipping below 5677 after follow up selling between 5677-5720 can not be ruled out now.
Post-open Outlook(01-08-2013)
Only consolidations and Pull Back Rally was told in all 3 previous Outlooks and Nifty is 63 points up today. Corrective Wave-C continuation but Pull Back Rallies are its part and being seen today,let it complete and fresh selling develop then next down moves after Pull Back Rally completion will be considered.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(01-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jul-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- First 4 hours lower levels supports and consolidations between 5677-5720
2- Last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 4726-5751
3- Whole day actual trading between 5677-5751
As lower levels supports and consolidations therefore some recovery from lower levels but last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 5677-5751 also. Correction continuation but emergence of Pull Back Rally possibility today and firstly sustaining beyond 5677-5751 should be watched tomorrow for Pull Back Rally beginning confirmations.
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1- First 4 hours lower levels supports and consolidations between 5677-5720
2- Last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 4726-5751
3- Whole day actual trading between 5677-5751
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Mid-session Outlook-2(31-07-2013)
Although Nifty was more than 1% down but intraday patterns were showing consolidation indications therefore valid break out of 5679-5720 was told for next immediate moves confirmations in previous Outlook and now Nifty moved above 5720. If sustains above 5720 then Pull Back Rally will be considered after more than 400 points correction in 6 sessions.
Mid-session Outlook(31-07-2013)
As Indian Rupee further weakened today therefore Indian markets slipped after gap down opening but some recovery also after lower levels supports. Indian markets will react on FOMC announcements tomorrow and preparing today for those moves.
Nifty is more than 1% down and trading between 5679-5720 with consolidation indications therefore mixed signals and valid break out of mentioned range will be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Let next moves preparation and intraday charts formation complete then will be updated according to final conclusions.
Nifty is more than 1% down and trading between 5679-5720 with consolidation indications therefore mixed signals and valid break out of mentioned range will be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Let next moves preparation and intraday charts formation complete then will be updated according to final conclusions.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jul-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- 6229.45 on 20-05-2013(Rally completion after 5 Waves completion and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) broken down on 30-07-2013.
Whole rally from 4531.15 to 6229.45 and its correction with Waves structure was updated on 29-07-2013 in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792" and Following lines were also told:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and previous closing is well above it at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 therefore Long Term Trend is up but corrective Wave-c continuation and Short Term Trend is down as well as Intermediate Term Trend will be down after closing below 5888.
2- As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
Nifty closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) yesterday and sustaining below it will mean entering into Bearish phase as well as its possibility is high now. As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is expected therefore following retracement should be kept in mind:-
13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Correction continuation and Bounce Back/Pull Back Rally may be seen after some intraday supports or minor consolidations but until complete consolidation on Daily charts will not happen till then its completion will not be considered.
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- 6229.45 on 20-05-2013(Rally completion after 5 Waves completion and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) broken down on 30-07-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Whole rally from 4531.15 to 6229.45 and its correction with Waves structure was updated on 29-07-2013 in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792" and Following lines were also told:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and previous closing is well above it at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 therefore Long Term Trend is up but corrective Wave-c continuation and Short Term Trend is down as well as Intermediate Term Trend will be down after closing below 5888.
2- As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
Nifty closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) yesterday and sustaining below it will mean entering into Bearish phase as well as its possibility is high now. As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is expected therefore following retracement should be kept in mind:-
13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Correction continuation and Bounce Back/Pull Back Rally may be seen after some intraday supports or minor consolidations but until complete consolidation on Daily charts will not happen till then its completion will not be considered.
Now corrective Wave-C continuation therefore down moves are expected after development of follow up selling. Let down moves stop at near about above mentioned levels and complete consolidation develop then correction completion will be considered otherwise correction is very much on.
Pre-Closing Outlook(30-07-2013)
As Indian Rupee turned more than 1% weak today and neutralised all steps by RBI to support it in previous weeks therefore sentiment depressed and continuous slipping of Indian Stock markets. Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and Nifty is trading below it today once confirmations of sustaining below it will mean entering into Bearish phase as well as its possibility is high now.
corrective Wave-C continuation and following lines are being repeated which were told at 08:20:00 AM yesterday in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792"
corrective Wave-C continuation and following lines are being repeated which were told at 08:20:00 AM yesterday in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792"
Now almost confirmation of corrective Wave-C continuation after completion of Wave-A and B and its target will be below the bottom of Wave-A(5566.25).
Mid-session Outlook(30-07-2013)
Although Indian markets closed near the lower levels of the day yesterday but we did not posted Bearish views because last 2 Sessions down moves within Bullish Falling Channel and resultant Nifty was .40% up today. View is same that firstly volatility and after that finally down moves are expected because corrective Wave-C continuation.
Post-open Outlook(30-07-2013)
As last 2 Sessions down moves within Bullish Falling Channel therefore therefore Indian markets opened positive and now again Green after some recovery from lower levels despite weakening of Indian Rupee today. Some volatility is expected before and after RBI Credit Policy and if nothing encouraging for markets then sharp down will be seen because corrective Wave-C continuation.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(30-07-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 26 & Jul 29,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- 2 Sessions Down moves within Bullish Falling Channel.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5827-5944
Long Term Trend is up, Intermediate and Short Term Trends turned down after the beginning on going Wave-C correction. Last 2 sessions continuous down moves but within Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves or intraday volatility can not be ruled out after any positive announcement in RBI Credit policy tomorrow and/or FOMC meet after 30-31 July 2013.
As corrective Wave-C continuation and finally down moves are expected therefore volatility for the cutting of both sides stop losses is expected in the coming sessions,as it was seen today and both new intraday high and new intraday low formation was seen after 12:30 PM in Nifty Jul Fut.
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1- 2 Sessions Down moves within Bullish Falling Channel.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5827-5944
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Long Term Trend is up, Intermediate and Short Term Trends turned down after the beginning on going Wave-C correction. Last 2 sessions continuous down moves but within Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves or intraday volatility can not be ruled out after any positive announcement in RBI Credit policy tomorrow and/or FOMC meet after 30-31 July 2013.
As corrective Wave-C continuation and finally down moves are expected therefore volatility for the cutting of both sides stop losses is expected in the coming sessions,as it was seen today and both new intraday high and new intraday low formation was seen after 12:30 PM in Nifty Jul Fut.
Pre-Closing Outlook(29-07-2013)
Although down moves after new intraday high formations but new intraday low formation also today therefore trading patterns are suggesting only volatility and decisive moves will be expected after Credit policy but high volatility before and after its announcements may be seen again tomorrow. As today all down moves are showing Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore some up moves,Bounce Back or minor Pull Back Rally can not be ruled out but corrective Wave-C continuation and finally down moves are expected.
Mid-session Outlook-2(29-07-2013)
Nifty July Fut traded at 5923 at 12:36 PM today but when it was trading at 5897 at 11:53 AM then following line was told today in previous Outlook:-
Indian markets are more than .50% down but again down moves are within Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of Bounce back possibility.
As lower levels supports today and same formations seen last Friday also therefore some Up moves and Pull Back rally will be considered if Nifty sustains above 5927. It should be kept in mind that corrective Wave-C continuation and once sustaining below today lowest will mean correction continuation with deeper correction possibility.
Indian markets are more than .50% down but again down moves are within Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of Bounce back possibility.
As lower levels supports today and same formations seen last Friday also therefore some Up moves and Pull Back rally will be considered if Nifty sustains above 5927. It should be kept in mind that corrective Wave-C continuation and once sustaining below today lowest will mean correction continuation with deeper correction possibility.
Mid-session Outlook(29-07-2013)
Although US markets closed flat last Friday but its Futures are weak since morning today and all the Asian markets are also sufficiently negative today morning therefore sentiment is weak and Indian markets are more than .50% down but again down moves are within Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of Bounce back possibility.
Last hope for Bulls at 5792
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jul 29 to Aug 02,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jul-2013):-
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation
Waves structure of ongoing 'ABC'correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jul-2013):-
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1- Wave-5 top formation at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 and corrective Wave-A continuation
2- Wave-v of Wave-A completion(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
3- Wave-v of Wave-B completion(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
4- Wave-c continuation with bottom formation at 5869.50 on 26-07-2013
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Jul-2013):-
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1- Down moves with Bullish Falling Channel in first 4 hours.
2- Last 2 hours consolidations between 5870-5885
3- Whole day actual trading between 5870-5944
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and previous closing is well above it at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 therefore Long Term Trend is up but corrective Wave-C continuation and Short Term Trend is down as well as Intermediate Term Trend will be down after closing below 5888. As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011. Now almost confirmation of corrective Wave-C continuation after completion of Wave-A and B and its target will be below the bottom of Wave-A(5566.25).
Next resistances are as follows:-
1-5957-5990
2-6040-6093
3-6094-6130
Next supports are as follows:-
1-5870--5885
2-5792(Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA)
3-5787-5810(Crucial support range)
4-5762-5781
5-5566-5595
As first 4 hours down moves with Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore Bounce back seen last Friday and next decisive down moves confirmation will be after sustaining below 5870 because consolidations also seen above it in last 2 hours. As corrective Wave-C continuation therefore down moves are expected after development of follow up selling and finally sustaining beyond 5792(Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA) should be watched in the coming week for the confirmations of deeper correction below it and it is last hope for Bulls also.
Just click following topic links previous weekly analysis also for detailed anylysis:-
1-Posted on 22-07-2013:-Indian markets on the verge of correction
2-Posted on 15-07-2013:-Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jul 15 to Jul 19,2013)
Pre-Closing Outlook(26-07-2013)
Nifty traded at 5919 at 2:36 PM today but when:-
1- Nifty was trading near the lowest of today at 5876 at 2:09 PM then following line was told today in Mid-session Outlook-3:-
2- Nifty was trading .45% down at 1:37 PM then following line was told today in Mid-session Outlook-2:-
As supports seen at lower levels today therefore next decisive down moves confirmation will be after sustaining below today lowest(5870)
1- Nifty was trading near the lowest of today at 5876 at 2:09 PM then following line was told today in Mid-session Outlook-3:-
next decisive down moves after Bounce back/Minor Pull Back Rally should be kept in mind.
2- Nifty was trading .45% down at 1:37 PM then following line was told today in Mid-session Outlook-2:-
a Bounce back possibility should be kept in mind.
As supports seen at lower levels today therefore next decisive down moves confirmation will be after sustaining below today lowest(5870)
Mid-session Outlook-3(26-07-2013)
Although view is Bearish but today whole day down moves with Bullish Falling Channel formation therefore next decisive down moves after Bounce back/Minor Pull Back Rally should be kept in mind.
Mid-session Outlook-2(26-07-2013)
Although Nifty is more than .45% down but Today down moves are showing consolidation indications and Bullish Falling Channel formation also seen therefore a Bounce back possibility should be kept in mind.
Mid-session Outlook(26-07-2013)
Although some up moves after opening but loosing all intraday gains also after higher levels minor selling but some supports seen at lower levels and very short Term indicators are Oversold therefore today trading range(5898-5944) valid break out should be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Post-open Outlook(26-07-2013)
As US markets recovered from lower levels yesterday and Indian Rupee strengthened today morning therefore positive opening and relief rally(minor up moves) is being seen.
Expected that finally down moves will be seen after fresh selling in the coming sessions.
Expected that finally down moves will be seen after fresh selling in the coming sessions.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-07-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jul-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Firstly more than 4 hours selling between 5957-5990
2- Whole day actual trading between 5903-5990
Firstly more than 4 hours selling and after that continuous down moves as well as closing near the lower levels of the day therefore decisive down moves seen yesterday.
As very short term trend has been oversold therefore minor up moves possibility can not be ruled out but almost confirmation of corrective Wave-C and expected that finally down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.
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1- Firstly more than 4 hours selling between 5957-5990
2- Whole day actual trading between 5903-5990
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly more than 4 hours selling and after that continuous down moves as well as closing near the lower levels of the day therefore decisive down moves seen yesterday.
As very short term trend has been oversold therefore minor up moves possibility can not be ruled out but almost confirmation of corrective Wave-C and expected that finally down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.
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