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Mid-session Outlook(22-05-2013)
Although most time trading in positive zone and now trading also in Green but today intraday charts are showing selling patterns therefore correction continuation possibility turned alive.
Mid-session Outlook(21-05-2013)
Following technical view was updated yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-05-2013):-
Indicators are showing negative divergence in Overbought zone and Short Term correction is very much due but complete selling patterns are required on EOD charts for its beginning. Intraday or very Short term correction can be seen any day in heated yesterday market and it was seen also but let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.
Following guidance was updated today in Post-open Outlook(21-05-2013):-
Nifty is trading below 6147 now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation/completion.
Almost 3 hours trading below 6147 with intraday consolidation patterns between 6120-6135 and after that up moves seen above 6147. As today consolidation is just below last Friday consolidation range(6147-6165) therefore a strong signal of correction completion but confirmation will be after sustaining above 6165.
Indicators are showing negative divergence in Overbought zone and Short Term correction is very much due but complete selling patterns are required on EOD charts for its beginning. Intraday or very Short term correction can be seen any day in heated yesterday market and it was seen also but let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.
Following guidance was updated today in Post-open Outlook(21-05-2013):-
Nifty is trading below 6147 now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation/completion.
Almost 3 hours trading below 6147 with intraday consolidation patterns between 6120-6135 and after that up moves seen above 6147. As today consolidation is just below last Friday consolidation range(6147-6165) therefore a strong signal of correction completion but confirmation will be after sustaining above 6165.
Valid break out of 6120-6165 should be watched now for on going correction continuation/completion confirmation.
Post-open Outlook(21-05-2013)
As slipping below 6147 was expected therefore following conclusive lines were told yesterday;-
1- let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.
2- sustaining beyond 3 Sessions range should be firstly watched today for the beginning of Short Term correction below 6146 or rally continuation above 6229.
1- let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.
2- sustaining beyond 3 Sessions range should be firstly watched today for the beginning of Short Term correction below 6146 or rally continuation above 6229.
Nifty is trading below 6147 now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation/completion.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-05-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 16 to May 20,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling between 6176-6186 on 16-05-2013
2- Good consolidation between 6147-6165 on 17-05-2013
3- Selling between 6221-6229 on 20-05-2013
4- 3 Sessions actual trading between 6146-6229
As selling developed immediately after opening today therefore following lines were told at:-
1- 11:46 AM- "Selling patterns formations between 6221-6229 today"
2- 12:04 PM- " Next immediate moves preparations will be done between 6147-6229"
Selling was told between 6221-6229 and Nifty could not move above 6229 as well as slipped sharply after our Outlook and Nifty traded whole day within our mentioned trading range(6147-6229) also.
Yesterday lowest was at 6,146.05 and highest at 6,229.45.
Indicators are showing negative divergence in Overbought zone and Short Term correction is very much due but complete selling patterns are required on EOD charts for its beginning. Intraday or very Short term correction can be seen any day in heated yesterday market and it was seen also but let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.
3 Sessions actual trading between 6146-6229 with lower levels good consolidation last Friday and higher levels selling also therefore mixed patterns and sustaining beyond 3 Sessions range should be firstly watched today for the beginning of Short Term correction below 6146 or rally continuation above 6229.
Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6176-6186 on 16-05-2013
2- Good consolidation between 6147-6165 on 17-05-2013
3- Selling between 6221-6229 on 20-05-2013
4- 3 Sessions actual trading between 6146-6229
Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis
As selling developed immediately after opening today therefore following lines were told at:-
1- 11:46 AM- "Selling patterns formations between 6221-6229 today"
2- 12:04 PM- " Next immediate moves preparations will be done between 6147-6229"
Selling was told between 6221-6229 and Nifty could not move above 6229 as well as slipped sharply after our Outlook and Nifty traded whole day within our mentioned trading range(6147-6229) also.
Yesterday lowest was at 6,146.05 and highest at 6,229.45.
Indicators are showing negative divergence in Overbought zone and Short Term correction is very much due but complete selling patterns are required on EOD charts for its beginning. Intraday or very Short term correction can be seen any day in heated yesterday market and it was seen also but let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.
3 Sessions actual trading between 6146-6229 with lower levels good consolidation last Friday and higher levels selling also therefore mixed patterns and sustaining beyond 3 Sessions range should be firstly watched today for the beginning of Short Term correction below 6146 or rally continuation above 6229.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-May-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-May-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.24
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.15
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-May-2013): 18.23
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,121
BSE Declines : 1,304
NSE Advances : 596
NSE Declines : 818
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5900 CE(May)- -109,650(-4.67%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(May)- -259,350(-3.45%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(May)- -265,600(-8.40%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(May)- -642,950(-7.69%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(May)- -414,600(-7.39%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(May)- -167,100(-2.89%)
Nifty- 6200 CE(May)- -396,200(-5.26%)
Nifty- 6200 PE(May)- -149,000(-3.13%)
Nifty- 6300 CE(May)- 456,850(8.20%)
Nifty- 6300 PE(May)- 205,900(25.96%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 20,223.98(-62.14 Points & -0.31%)
Nifty- closed at 6,156.90(-30.40 Points & -0.49%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,130.35(-56.30 Points & -0.69%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,358.95(-13.95 Points & -0.41%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2013
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 6291
R2 6260
R1 6208
Avg 6177
S1 6125
S2 6094
S3 6042
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6239 Trgt 2
H5 6220 Trgt 1
H4 6201 Long breakout
H3 6178 Go Short
H2 6171
H1 6163
L1 6148
L2 6140
L3 6133 Long
L4 6110 Short Breakout
L5 6091 Trgt 1
L6 6072 Trgt 2
R3 6291
R2 6260
R1 6208
Avg 6177
S1 6125
S2 6094
S3 6042
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6239 Trgt 2
H5 6220 Trgt 1
H4 6201 Long breakout
H3 6178 Go Short
H2 6171
H1 6163
L1 6148
L2 6140
L3 6133 Long
L4 6110 Short Breakout
L5 6091 Trgt 1
L6 6072 Trgt 2
Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2013
Nifty(May Fut)-Levels
R3 6302
R2 6270
R1 6217
Avg 6185
S1 6132
S2 6100
S3 6047
Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6249 Trgt 2
H5 6229 Trgt 1
H4 6210 Long breakout
H3 6187 Go Short
H2 6179
H1 6171
L1 6156
L2 6148
L3 6140 Long
L4 6117 Short Breakout
L5 6098 Trgt 1
L6 6078 Trgt 2
R3 6302
R2 6270
R1 6217
Avg 6185
S1 6132
S2 6100
S3 6047
Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6249 Trgt 2
H5 6229 Trgt 1
H4 6210 Long breakout
H3 6187 Go Short
H2 6179
H1 6171
L1 6156
L2 6148
L3 6140 Long
L4 6117 Short Breakout
L5 6098 Trgt 1
L6 6078 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2013
Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels
R3 13532
R2 13440
R1 13285
Avg 13193
S1 13038
S2 12946
S3 12791
Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 13377 Trgt 2
H5 13321 Trgt 1
H4 13265 Long breakout
H3 13197 Go Short
H2 13175
H1 13152
L1 13107
L2 13084
L3 13062 Long
L4 12994 Short Breakout
L5 12938 Trgt 1
L6 12882 Trgt 2
R3 13532
R2 13440
R1 13285
Avg 13193
S1 13038
S2 12946
S3 12791
Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 13377 Trgt 2
H5 13321 Trgt 1
H4 13265 Long breakout
H3 13197 Go Short
H2 13175
H1 13152
L1 13107
L2 13084
L3 13062 Long
L4 12994 Short Breakout
L5 12938 Trgt 1
L6 12882 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(20-05-2013)
As soon as selling developed then following line was told today at 11:46:00 AM
Although some up moves were seen after lower levels consolidations but again development of follow up selling and breaking down of today lows.
As good consolidations between 6147-6165 last Friday and until Nifty will not sustain below 6147 till then Short Term down trend will not be considered and at present range bound market will be understood between 6147-6229 and sustaining beyond this range will be next Short Term Trend confirmation.
Selling patterns formations between 6221-6229 today
Although some up moves were seen after lower levels consolidations but again development of follow up selling and breaking down of today lows.
As good consolidations between 6147-6165 last Friday and until Nifty will not sustain below 6147 till then Short Term down trend will not be considered and at present range bound market will be understood between 6147-6229 and sustaining beyond this range will be next Short Term Trend confirmation.
Mid-session Outlook-3(20-05-2013)
Although Nifty is trading near the lows of the day after higher levels selling today but emergence of consolidation patterns formation also during last more than 1 hour. Firstly valid break out of today trading range(6194-6229) should be watched for next immediate move confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook-2(20-05-2013)
Good consolidations between 6147-6165 last Friday and today selling between 6221-6229 therefore now range bound market will be seen 6147-6229 today and possibly tomorrow. Next immediate moves preparations will be done between 6147-6229.
Rally Continuation
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 20 to May 24,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-May-2013):-Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
2- Huge correction of 2008
3- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
4- Wave-1(3240.55 on 05-11-2008)
5- Wave-2(2502.90 on 20-11-2008)
6- Wave-3(6338.50 on 05-11-2010)
7- Wave-4(4531.15 on 20-12-2011)
8- Wave-5(Recent top formation at 6,199.95 on 17-05-2013)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Wave-5 continuation with too much high targets above all time high(6357.10) and now its next immediate target is being understood through its internal structure and analysis.
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-May-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning)
2- Wave i(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave ii(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave iii(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave iii gained 1341.45 points.
6- Wave iv(5477.20 on 10-04-2013)
7- Wave v of Wave 5 continuation.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 of any degree should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5 of that degree. Wave-iii gained 1341.45 points and now Wave-v is on after Wave-iv completion at 5477.20. As Wave-v can not gain more than Wave-iii therefore its maximum target will be less than 6818.65 and its calculation is as follows:-
5477.20(Wave-v begun)+1341.45(Wave-v can gain maximum points)=6818.65
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Wave v of Wave 5 is very much on after minor intraday and very short term correction completion. Although Indicators are showing negative divergence in overbought zone but forceful strong rally continuation and it require complete distribution patterns formations for any Short or Intermediate Term correction. It is also confirm that during distribution patterns formations new high of on going rally with lesser force will also be seen and until complete distribution patterns will not form till then any big correction will not be seen.
As no selling patterns formations yet therefore rally continuation in the coming week.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-May-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-May-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.08
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,170
BSE Declines : 1,256
NSE Advances : 648
NSE Declines : 759
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5900 CE(May)- 78,800(-3.25%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(May)- -112,150(-1.47%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(May)- -259,100(-7.57%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(May)- 448,750(5.67%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(May)- -269,550(-4.58%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(May)- 533,100(10.14%)
Nifty- 6200 CE(May)- 387,450(5.42%)
Nifty- 6200 PE(May)- 1,152,750(31.97%)
Nifty- 6300 CE(May)- 381,800(7.36%)
Nifty- 6300 PE(May)- 119,100(17.67%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 20,286.12(38.79 Points & 0.19%)
Nifty- closed at 6,187.30(17.40 Points & 0.28%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,186.65(44.65 Points & 0.55%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,372.90(14.55 Points & 0.43%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2013
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 6261
R2 6230
R1 6208
Avg 6177
S1 6155
S2 6124
S3 6102
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6240 Trgt 2
H5 6228 Trgt 1
H4 6216 Long breakout
H3 6201 Go Short
H2 6196
H1 6191
L1 6182
L2 6177
L3 6172 Long
L4 6157 Short Breakout
L5 6145 Trgt 1
L6 6133 Trgt 2
R3 6261
R2 6230
R1 6208
Avg 6177
S1 6155
S2 6124
S3 6102
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6240 Trgt 2
H5 6228 Trgt 1
H4 6216 Long breakout
H3 6201 Go Short
H2 6196
H1 6191
L1 6182
L2 6177
L3 6172 Long
L4 6157 Short Breakout
L5 6145 Trgt 1
L6 6133 Trgt 2
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