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Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Feb-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5840-5857
2- Consolidation between 5825-5845
3- Intraday correction completion after 3 corrective Waves completion.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5825-5876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Lower levels good supports with closing after some slipping from  higher levels in last hour but intraday chart is showing 3 corrective ABC waves hence strong indication of intraday correction completion as well. As  consolidation was seen yesterday after good  consolidation last Friday therefore good indication of up moves preparations and possibly after Budget on 28-02-2013.

Pre-open Outlook(26-02-2013)

US markets tumbled more than 1% yesterday therefore sentiment is weak today morning and all the Asian markets are in Red therefore weak to gap down opening is possible and volatility also can not be ruled out because Rail Budget today. As good consolidations in last 2 sessions therefore up moves possibility after Budget is still alive after follow up consolidations today.

For next trend confirmations sustaining beyond 5823 should be firstly watched today in depressed sentiment today morning.
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Blog will be updated during trading hours today.
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Mid-session Outlook-2(25-02-2013)

Although Indian markets closed at the lowest of the day last Friday but we did not posted Bearish views in all 3 previous Outlooks because intraday charts showed consolidation patterns formations last Friday. Today also when Nifty was trading near today lowest then also we did not updated Bearish views at 12:50 PM because intraday patterns are not showing as such selling formations and good recovery with new intraday high formation was seen after that.

Emergence of fresh up moves hopes because intraday supports at lower levels today but good selling at higher levels in last 60 sessions therefore lot of consolidations are required for any decisive up moves and Valid break out of 5823-5873 will be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.  

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Mid-session Outlook(25-02-2013)

Although slipping from higher levels and new intraday low formation below 5836 but intraday patterns are not showing as such selling patterns formations. Until Nifty will not sustaining below 5823 till then view will not be bearish and Valid break out of 5823-5873 will be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.
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Post-open Outlook(25-02-2013)

Although Nifty traded between 5836-5873 last Friday with intraday consolidation patterns and supports getting above 5823 in previous 60 sessions but breaking down of 5836 and 5823 will be deeper down moves confirmations. As consolidation above 5836 last Friday therefore Bounce back possibility is still alive despite slipping from higher levels immediately after opening today.

Follow up intraday  technical positions will be firstly watched today for sharp down moves below 5823 after fresh selling today or rally possibility after Budget after follow up consoilidations today and next 3 sessions.

View is not Bearish yet because last Friday intraday consolidations formations and follow up intraday patterns will be firstly watched today and also will be updated accordingly as well as Valid break out 5823-5873 should be firstly watched now for next big trend confirmation.
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Neither Bullish nor Bearish but cautious before Budget

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 25 to Mar 01,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Feb-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 60 sessions with Neckline at 5823

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction continuation after Sub Wave-5 completion with trend reversal Head and Shoulders Bearish pattern formations in last 60 sessions and its Neckline is at 5823. Valid Break out below 5823 will mean breaking down of 60 sessions trading range and Neckline as well,resultant sharp down moves toward next supports at 5548.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-12-2012 to 22-02-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 60 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6000-6111
2- Selling between 5890-5930
3- Selling between 5890-5970
4- Consolidation between 5823-5870 
5- 60 Sessions actual trading between 5823-6111. 

Conclusions from 60 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

60 Sessions intra day chart  is showing clear selling formations and multiple resistances at higher levels with some supports at lower levels. As good selling at higher levels therefore follow up selling in next week will mean sharp fall and consolidations in next week will mean some up moves only. As multiple resistances at higher levels therefore Valid break out of 6111 will give next up trend confirmations.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Feb-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- All Down moves are in Bullish Falling Channels.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5836-5873

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although 37 Points narrow range trading with closing near lower levels of the day but without any selling patterns formations. As all down moves are in Bullish Falling Channels formations therefore indications of some up moves in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Union Budget-2013 presentation on 28-02-2013 and before that 3 trading sessions left. Nifty is range bound between 5823-6111 and it is confirm that break out of this range will mean strong moves toward break out side as well as its high possibility after Budget.

As next big moves will be decided through break out of mentioned 60 sessions range therefore technical positions within it has been updated above and strong indications of down moves below 5823 but a ray of hope is also seen after whole day good consolidations within 60 sessions supports range last Friday and up moves after Budget can not be ruled out if follow up consolidation develops in the coming 3 sessions before Budget.

It is confirm that big moves will be seen after Budget and up moves possibility is also alive despite last Friday closing near lower levels of 60 sessions range. Follow up moves(intraday charts patterns formations) with sustaining beyond 5823 will be firstly watched in the coming sessions. Let Market prepare for Post Budget trend then will be updated in Mid-session Outlooks according to conclusions from intraday charts formations in the same manner as being done for the last 3 years. 

Neither Bullish nor Bearish but cautious view with watchful approach amid most depressed sentiments before Union Budget-2013 and post Budget trend is yet to get confirmations from next 3 sessions intraday charts formations.
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FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 22-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII22-Feb-2013 2864.022583.72280.3

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII22-Feb-2013 937.211289.19-351.98
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FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 22-Feb-2013


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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(22-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.87
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.84
Nifty P/E Ratio(22-Feb-2013): 17.66

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,395
BSE Declines : 1,450
NSE Advances :   748
NSE Declines :   763

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- 50,650(18.47%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- 1,184,400(24.08%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 178,100(11.14%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- 47,000(0.62%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 113,150(1.90%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -678,500(-12.70%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 46,850(0.45%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -146,600(-5.98%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19317.01(-8.35 Points & -0.04%)
Nifty- closed at 5,850.30(-1.95 Points & -0.03%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,921.15(-4.00 Points & -0.05%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,431.20(0.15 Points & 0.00%)
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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5908
R2 5890
R1 5870
Avg 5852
S1 5832
S2 5814
S3 5794

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5888     Trgt 2 
H5 5879     Trgt 1
H4 5870     Long breakout 
H3 5860     Go Short 
H2 5856
H1 5853
L1 5846
L2 5843
L3 5839     Long 
L4 5829     Short Breakout 
L5 5820     Trgt 1 
L6 5811     Trgt 2
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Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5940
R2 5911
R1 5882
Avg 5853
S1 5824
S2 5795
S3 5766

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5911     Trgt 2 
H5 5898     Trgt 1
H4 5884     Long breakout 
H3 5868     Go Short 
H2 5863
H1 5858
L1 5847
L2 5842
L3 5837     Long 
L4 5821     Short Breakout 
L5 5807     Trgt 1 
L6 5794     Trgt 2
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Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12283
R2 12230
R1 12165
Avg 12112
S1 12047
S2 11994
S3 11929

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12218     Trgt 2
H5 12191     Trgt 1
H4 12164     Long breakout
H3 12132     Go Short
H2 12121
H1 12110
L1 12089
L2 12078
L3 12067     Long
L4 12035     Short Breakout
L5 12008     Trgt 1
L6 11981     Trgt 2
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Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 25 to Mar 01,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6071
R2 6021
R1 5935
Avg 5885
S1 5799
S2 5749
S3 5663

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5986     Trgt 2 
H5 5955     Trgt 1
H4 5924     Long breakout 
H3 5887     Go Short 
H2 5874
H1 5862
L1 5837
L2 5825
L3 5812     Long 
L4 5775     Short Breakout 
L5 5744     Trgt 1 
L6 5713     Trgt 2
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Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 25 to Mar 01,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12798
R2 12634
R1 12351
Avg 12187
S1 11904
S2 11740
S3 11457

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12516     Trgt 2 
H5 12415     Trgt 1
H4 12313     Long breakout 
H3 12190     Go Short 
H2 12149
H1 12108
L1 12027
L2 11986
L3 11945     Long 
L4 11822     Short Breakout 
L5 11720     Trgt 1 
L6 11619     Trgt 2
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NATURAL GAS-Feb Fut-Selling Trade

NATURAL GAS-Feb Fut-Sell-Intraday/Positional-SL-178.60 & TGT-172.60-CMP-176.20(Lalit39)
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Mid-session Outlook-2(22-02-2013)

Flat trading and firstly slipping also but today trading is showing consolidation patterns between 5836-5862 with lower levels supports. A bounce back is expected but lot of follow up consolidation is required for decisive up moves and let it happen then broader length of up moves will be considered. 
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Mid-session Outlook(22-02-2013)

Heavy selling and multiple resistances in last 59 sessions between 5823-6111 and last hope for Bulls is 5823. As sentiment is weak and down moves continuation also therefore slipping below 5823 can not be ruled out but sustaining it below is must for breaking down confirmations. Down moves immediately after opening but intraday patterns are not showing selling and on the contrary consolidation indications also but lot of consolidation is required for any decisive up moves from here.

As Intraday consolidation formations today with lower levels supports indications also therefore firstly sustaining above today low(5836) and finally sustaining beyond 5823 should be watched for:-

1- Deeper correction below 5823 or 
2- Firstly some up moves hopes above 5823 and finally rally after correction completion will be considered after sustaining above crucial resistances at higher levels.
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Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(22-02-2013)


Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Feb-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5890-5915
2- Last 3 hours continuous down moves.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5845-5915

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Global Markets were weak today therefore firstly 3 hours narrow range selling and after that continuous down moves and closing near lowest levels and just below immediate support(5854). 59 Sessions trading between 5823-6111 with most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formation and valid breaking down of its neckline(5823) will mean fast down moves towards 5548 therefore sustaining beyond 5823 should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

If sentiment does not remain boiling due any news flow then Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for Post Budget moves between 5823-5890  
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FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 21-Feb-2013



FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII21-Feb-2013 4529.023315.451213.57

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII21-Feb-2013 1304.631533.41-228.78
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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5977
R2 5949
R1 5900
Avg 5872
S1 5823
S2 5795
S3 5746

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5929     Trgt 2 
H5 5911     Trgt 1
H4 5894     Long breakout 
H3 5873     Go Short 
H2 5866
H1 5859
L1 5844
L2 5837
L3 5830     Long 
L4 5809     Short Breakout 
L5 5792     Trgt 1 
L6 5774     Trgt 2
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Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12602
R2 12489
R1 12284
Avg 12171
S1 11966
S2 11853
S3 11648

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12398     Trgt 2 
H5 12326     Trgt 1
H4 12254     Long breakout 
H3 12167     Go Short 
H2 12138
H1 12109
L1 12050
L2 12021
L3 11992     Long 
L4 11905     Short Breakout 
L5 11833     Trgt 1 
L6 11761     Trgt 2
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