Although sharp fall in CNX MIDCAP,CNX SMALLCAP and Nifty is trading below 5941 after loosing all intraday gains but negative news led down moves therefore view will be Bearish after sustaining below 5941 for next down moves toward 55823.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
FY 13 GDP Growth forecast at 5%
As GDP below expectations therefore sentiment dampened and market slipped from intraday higher levels. Although all the positive and negative impact will be discounted within 5941-5984 and its valid break out will give next moves confirmation but down moves after GDP News are not forceful therefore view has not turned Bearish yet.
Post-open Outlook-3(07-02-2013)
As intraday charts showed consolidation patterns also despite higher levels selling and closing at lowest of the day yesterday therefore Indian markets are up while most Asian markets are in Red today.
We did not posted Bearish views yesterday and told for valid break out of 5941-5984 for next trend confirmation. As good recovery from lower levels today therefore sustaining above 5984 should be firstly watched now for correction completion and Short term up moves confirmation.
We did not posted Bearish views yesterday and told for valid break out of 5941-5984 for next trend confirmation. As good recovery from lower levels today therefore sustaining above 5984 should be firstly watched now for correction completion and Short term up moves confirmation.
Post-open Outlook-2(07-02-2013)
Indian markets out performed global cues today and now almost flat after recovering from lower levels while CNX MIDCAP and CNX SMALLCAP are 0.41% and 0.06% up respectively. Now expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5941-5984 but resistances are at higher levels within this range and follow up consolidation is required for next up trend.
valid break out of 5941-5984 should be firstly watched today for next trend confirmation.
valid break out of 5941-5984 should be firstly watched today for next trend confirmation.
Post-open Outlook(07-02-2013)
As Asian markets are in Red therefore weak opening and Nifty is hovering around crucial support(5941). Firstly sustaining around 5941 should be watched today for those next moves which have already been discussed in previous Outlooks.
Next Trend Decider 5941-5984
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 05 & Feb 06,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- Consolidations and good intraday supports between 5948-5960 on 06-02-2013
2- Selling between 5978-5984 on 07-02-2013
3- Follow up selling between 5967-5972 on 07-02-2013
4- 7 Times down moves in Bullish falling Channel in both days.
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5948-5984
Indian markets ignored Global cues in both previous sessions and traded in following manner:-
1- on 06-02-2013- When all the Global markets were in deep Red and Asian markets were more than 1.5% down then Indian markets were only 0.50% down and in this manner out performed. Nifty got support and consolidated at lower levels between 5948-5960.
2- on 07-02-2013- When all the Global markets were in Green,all Asian markets were were positive and Nikkei 225 closed 3.77% up then Indian markets closed flat after loosing all intraday gains and in this manner under performed. Firstly higher levels selling and after that follow up selling also seen before closing at lower levels of the day.
Rally started after consolidation between 5941-5970 in mid-Jan-2013 and supports was seen within this range yesterday. Although selling also seen above this range today but down moves were in Bullish falling Channel in both days therefore emergence of intraday consolidation patterns also and development of Short term up moves expectations as well.
Nifty traded most time between 6000-6100 in previous 14 sessions and this range broken down but support also emerged above next support(5941) yesterday and selling also seen today. As completely mixed intraday patterns in both previous sessions therefore valid break out of 5941-5984 should be firstly watched tomorrow for:-
1- Down moves toward 5823 below 5941.
2- Reentering into previous 14 sessions range(6000-6100) above 5984.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidations and good intraday supports between 5948-5960 on 06-02-2013
2- Selling between 5978-5984 on 07-02-2013
3- Follow up selling between 5967-5972 on 07-02-2013
4- 7 Times down moves in Bullish falling Channel in both days.
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5948-5984
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Indian markets ignored Global cues in both previous sessions and traded in following manner:-
1- on 06-02-2013- When all the Global markets were in deep Red and Asian markets were more than 1.5% down then Indian markets were only 0.50% down and in this manner out performed. Nifty got support and consolidated at lower levels between 5948-5960.
2- on 07-02-2013- When all the Global markets were in Green,all Asian markets were were positive and Nikkei 225 closed 3.77% up then Indian markets closed flat after loosing all intraday gains and in this manner under performed. Firstly higher levels selling and after that follow up selling also seen before closing at lower levels of the day.
Rally started after consolidation between 5941-5970 in mid-Jan-2013 and supports was seen within this range yesterday. Although selling also seen above this range today but down moves were in Bullish falling Channel in both days therefore emergence of intraday consolidation patterns also and development of Short term up moves expectations as well.
Nifty traded most time between 6000-6100 in previous 14 sessions and this range broken down but support also emerged above next support(5941) yesterday and selling also seen today. As completely mixed intraday patterns in both previous sessions therefore valid break out of 5941-5984 should be firstly watched tomorrow for:-
1- Down moves toward 5823 below 5941.
2- Reentering into previous 14 sessions range(6000-6100) above 5984.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 06-Feb-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(06-Feb-2013)
1- Benchmark Indices closed flat.
2- Closing at lower levels after slipping from higher levels.
3- Black Candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.83
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.78
Nifty P/E Ratio(06-Feb-2013): 17.92
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,465
BSE Declines : 1,378
NSE Advances : 771
NSE Declines : 710
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Feb)- -3,050(-0.96%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Feb)- 717,650(13.70%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Feb)- 10,650(2.35%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Feb)- 330,600(7.67%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Feb)- 298,600(28.05%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Feb)- 377,100(7.34%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Feb)- 474,650(13.01%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Feb)- 28,350(0.68%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Feb)- 803,650(13.66%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Feb)- 13,700(0.75%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,639.72(-20.10 Points & -0.10%)
Nifty- closed at 5,959.20(2.30 Points & 0.04%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,238.25(8.35 Points & 0.10%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,579.60(0.00 Points & 0.00%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-02-2013
R3 6018
R2 6004
R1 5981
Avg 5967
S1 5944
S2 5930
S3 5907
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5996 Trgt 2
H5 5987 Trgt 1
H4 5979 Long breakout
H3 5969 Go Short
H2 5965
H1 5962
L1 5955
L2 5952
L3 5948 Long
L4 5938 Short Breakout
L5 5930 Trgt 1
L6 5921 Trgt 2
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-02-2013
R3 6015
R2 6004
R1 5988
Avg 5977
S1 5961
S2 5950
S3 5934
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5999 Trgt 2
H5 5992 Trgt 1
H4 5986 Long breakout
H3 5979 Go Short
H2 5976
H1 5974
L1 5969
L2 5967
L3 5964 Long
L4 5957 Short Breakout
L5 5951 Trgt 1
L6 5944 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-02-2013
R3 12665
R2 12619
R1 12543
Avg 12497
S1 12421
S2 12375
S3 12299
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12589 Trgt 2
H5 12561 Trgt 1
H4 12534 Long breakout
H3 12500 Go Short
H2 12489
H1 12478
L1 12455
L2 12444
L3 12433 Long
L4 12399 Short Breakout
L5 12372 Trgt 1
L6 12344 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(06-02-2013)
Whole day narrow range 27 points trading between 5957-5984 with some intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore short term up moves expectations turned alive today despite higher levels selling patterns formations and market is going to close near lower levels also.
Valid break out of 5940-5984 should also be watched now for next trend confirmations.
Valid break out of 5940-5984 should also be watched now for next trend confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook(06-02-2013)
Indian markets under performed Global cues today,slipped from higher levels,intraday lowest broken down and now trading between yesterday trading range but today intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns also after some higher levels selling between 5978-5984. More follow up preparations are required for any side decisive moves and 5940-5985 should be watched now for those next trend confirmation which have already been updated in previous Outlook.
Post-open Outlook(06-02-2013)
Positive global cues led gap up opening but not sustaining at higher levels and immediate slipping today. Rally started after consolidation between 5940-5970 in mid-Jan-2013 and Nifty traded between 5948-5970 yesterday with lower levels consolidations and good intraday supports between 5948-5960 yesterday,follow up moves today will decide the fate of this support range. As good selling in previous 14 sessions at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required for any decisive up move above 6000 and it will be decided today through follow up consolidations/distribution today.
Next trend deciding range is 5940-5970 and valid break out of this range should be firstly watched now for:-
1- Correction continuation toward 5823 or
2- Up moves after correction completion toward 6111/6239//6331
Next trend deciding range is 5940-5970 and valid break out of this range should be firstly watched now for:-
1- Correction continuation toward 5823 or
2- Up moves after correction completion toward 6111/6239//6331
Mid-session Outlook-2(05-02-2013)
Although all the Global markets were down and some were in deep Red as well as gap down opening was seen in Indian markets also but we were not bearish and gave previous consolidation range(5940-5970) for next moves confirmations. As lower levels supports and consolidations patterns indications also today therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 till then immediate down moves will not be considered.
Only first signal of correction completion today and complete follow up consolidation is required for valid break out and moves above 5970 as well as reentering into previous 14 sessions range(5989-6111).
Only first signal of correction completion today and complete follow up consolidation is required for valid break out and moves above 5970 as well as reentering into previous 14 sessions range(5989-6111).
Mid-session Outlook(05-02-2013)
Rally was started after consolidation between 5940-5970 in mid-Jan-2013 and Nifty is trading between 5948-5970 since opening today. Follow up technical positions within this range and its valid break out(5940-5970) will be those next moves confirmations which have already been updated in previous Outlook today.
Post-open Outlook(05-02-2013)
Next support is at 5943,minimum 5950 was expected and market achieved its first target after lowest formation at 5,947.90 today. Follow up technical positions today will give indications of following next moves:-
1- After follow up selling correction continuation toward 5823 or
2- Up moves after consolidation and correction completion between 5950-6000
Let market prepare and intraday charts start formations then will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations.
Although some Asian markets are more than 1.5% down but Indian markets are 0.50% down therefore outperforming and sustaining beyond 5950 should be firstly watched today for above mentioned next moves confirmations.
1- After follow up selling correction continuation toward 5823 or
2- Up moves after consolidation and correction completion between 5950-6000
Let market prepare and intraday charts start formations then will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations.
Although some Asian markets are more than 1.5% down but Indian markets are 0.50% down therefore outperforming and sustaining beyond 5950 should be firstly watched today for above mentioned next moves confirmations.
NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional BUYing of 04-02-2013-Covering
NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional Bought on 04-02-2013-Premium not increasing,Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-48(Lalit39)
NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional buying of 04-02-2013-Message
NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional Bought on 04-02-2013-Global markets are down.Hold and cover after my covering message(Lalit39)
Correction after 14 Sessions range broken down Confirmation
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Feb-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 6015-6032
3- Whole day actual trading between 5982-6032
As intraday selling today therefore following lines were told in Mid-session Outlooks today:-
1- At 11:39 AM in Mid-session Outlook:-"intraday selling confirmation at higher levels today"
2- At 01:31 PM in Mid-session Outlook-3:-"more down moves confirmations below 6000 and possibility of 5950 as well"
2- At 03:22 PM in Pre-Closing Outlook:-"high possibility of more down moves toward next supports near 5950"
14 Previous sessions actual trading between 5989-6111 with good selling between 6050-6111 and again follow up selling today between previous support range(5989-6033) therefore supports weakened and broken down as well. As 14 sessions range broken down after selling between support range therefore expected that deeper correction will be seen and following supports may also be tested in the coming sessions:-
1- 5941
2- 5823
Sub-Wave-5 started from 5548 and completed at 6111 therefore its following Fibonacci retracement levels testing possibility should also be kept in mind:-
38.2%- 5895
50.0%- 5829
61.8%- 5763
Expected Picture of on going correction
Sub-Wave-3 of Sub-Wave-5 correction was expected and will be seen also in the coming sessions but strong supports are just above 5548 therefore will not be easily broken and expected that on going correction will complete near about above mentioned levels. As supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels will be considered if intraday charts will start to show consolidations there. Some up moves after on going correction completion and finally much deeper correction beginning is expected near about Union Budget-2013 from 6111/6239//6331.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6015-6032
3- Whole day actual trading between 5982-6032
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As intraday selling today therefore following lines were told in Mid-session Outlooks today:-
1- At 11:39 AM in Mid-session Outlook:-"intraday selling confirmation at higher levels today"
2- At 01:31 PM in Mid-session Outlook-3:-"more down moves confirmations below 6000 and possibility of 5950 as well"
2- At 03:22 PM in Pre-Closing Outlook:-"high possibility of more down moves toward next supports near 5950"
14 Previous sessions actual trading between 5989-6111 with good selling between 6050-6111 and again follow up selling today between previous support range(5989-6033) therefore supports weakened and broken down as well. As 14 sessions range broken down after selling between support range therefore expected that deeper correction will be seen and following supports may also be tested in the coming sessions:-
1- 5941
2- 5823
Sub-Wave-5 started from 5548 and completed at 6111 therefore its following Fibonacci retracement levels testing possibility should also be kept in mind:-
38.2%- 5895
50.0%- 5829
61.8%- 5763
Expected Picture of on going correction
Sub-Wave-3 of Sub-Wave-5 correction was expected and will be seen also in the coming sessions but strong supports are just above 5548 therefore will not be easily broken and expected that on going correction will complete near about above mentioned levels. As supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels will be considered if intraday charts will start to show consolidations there. Some up moves after on going correction completion and finally much deeper correction beginning is expected near about Union Budget-2013 from 6111/6239//6331.
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