Mid-session Outlook(31-01-2013)

We posted only bearish views and Indian markets slipped also from higher levels even after good Credit Policy from RBI and above expectations results from ICICI Bank today but down moves are not sharp and maintaining the status of sideways mode within 6000-6100.

Following line was told yesterday at 09:38 AM in Post-open Outlook(30-01-2013):-

Nifty will trade most time between 6033-6068 and prepare for next moves today"

As was told same happened and Nifty trade most time between 6033-6068 and 2 sessions trading ranges are as follows:-

1- Nifty traded between 6044.15-6071.95 yesterday.
2- Nifty traded between 6,034.90-6,058.05 today(more than 5 hours).

Confirm selling at higher levels today but intraday down moves are without force therefore next support range(6000-6033) break out will be firstly watched tomorrow.

Post-open Outlook(31-01-2013)

Following lines were told on 29-01-2013 in Correction continuation on cards

Follow up selling tomorrow will mean consideration of following possibility also:-

"FOMC Meeting is scheduled on January 29-30 and its results will come out in the mid night of 30 Jan. We don't know what will be its outcome but US markets intraday and daily charts are showing selling formations therefore sharp fall in US markets on 30-01-2013 can not be ruled out which may result sharp down moves in Asian and Indian markets on 31st Jan"

All the Asian markets are in Red today after negative closing in US markets but down moves are not sharp and Nifty is confined between 6000-6100. As both lower levels buying and higher levels selling is being seen for the last 12 sessions and one sided positions are not being built therefore sideways market. No other way but to wait for valid break out of those range which have already been updated in previous Outlook.

Although our view was bearish and markets moved down also but not too much. Let market prepare then next moves with breaking out possibility will be updated according to intraday charts formations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-01-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6062-6070
2- Support between 6044-6052
3- Whole day actual trading between 6044-6070

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good global cues led Green opening and positive zone trading therefore following trading range with technical reasons was given at 09:38 AM in Post-open Outlook(30-01-2013):-

"Next resistances are between 6068-6110 and supports are between 6000-6033 and expected that Nifty will trade most time between 6033-6068 and prepare for next moves today"

Nifty traded whole day between 6044-6070 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore mixed intraday patterns formations today.

As Bearish patterns formation in EOD charts and indicators are also showing negative divergence therefore deeper correction possibility is very much alive. Both higher levels resistances and lower levels supports in last 12 sessions between 6000-6100 and Nifty again traded within this range with intraday mixed patterns today therefore Nifty will firstly trade between 6000-6100 and prepare for next moves tomorrow. 

Sideways market(6000-6100) and it will take its own time for next moves preparation,no other way but only to wait for its valid break out and follow up one sided moves in the coming sessions will decide its time frame.  Following ranges valid break out should be firstly watched:-

1- For next moves first indication- 6033-6068
2- For next moves final confirmation- 6000-6100

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 30-Jan-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 30-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 30-Jan-2013 3802.74 2896.38 906.36

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 30-Jan-2013 1083.02 2178.84 -1095.82

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(30-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed almost flat.

2- CNX MIDCAP and CNX SMALLCAP closed in Red.

3- Doji Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.96

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.91

Nifty P/E Ratio(30-Jan-2013):18.22

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,202

BSE Declines : 1,679 

NSE Advances :   584

NSE Declines :   932

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -106,550(-14.26%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -226,950(-3.13%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -195,000(-21.68%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- -467,950(-5.67%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -332,900(-11.13%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-    3,500(0.04 %)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -379,750(-4.59%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -175,800(-5.92%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20005(14.10 Points & 0.07%)

Nifty- closed at 6,055.75(5.85 Points & 0.10%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,303.90(-20.05 Points & -0.24%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,620.15(-14.65 Points & -0.40%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6096

R2 6083

R1 6069

Avg 6056

S1 6042

S2 6029

S3 6015

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6082     Trgt 2 

H5 6075     Trgt 1

H4 6069     Long breakout 

H3 6062     Go Short 

H2 6059

H1 6057

L1 6052

L2 6050

L3 6047     Long 

L4 6040     Short Breakout 

L5 6034     Trgt 1 

L6 6027     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6104

R2 6090

R1 6075

Avg 6061

S1 6046

S2 6032

S3 6017

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6089     Trgt 2 

H5 6082     Trgt 1

H4 6075     Long breakout 

H3 6067     Go Short 

H2 6065

H1 6062

L1 6057

L2 6054

L3 6052     Long 

L4 6044     Short Breakout 

L5 6037     Trgt 1 

L6 6030     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12926
R2 12875
R1 12828
Avg 12777
S1 12730
S2 12679
S3 12632

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12880     Trgt 2
H5 12858     Trgt 1
H4 12835     Long breakout
H3 12808     Go Short
H2 12799
H1 12790
L1 12773
L2 12764
L3 12755     Long
L4 12728     Short Breakout
L5 12705     Trgt 1
L6 12683     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(30-01-2013)

Sideways market between 6044-6070 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling. Today trading range valid break out will be next very short term trend confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook-2(30-01-2013)

Following lines were told in previous Outlook:-

1- Nifty traded between 6054-6070 with higher levels selling patterns
2- valid break down of 5054 will be next down moves confirmation

As higher levels selling therefore Nifty slipped below 5054 but recovered after getting intraday support at 6044.15. As higher levels again selling today therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 6068/6070 till then next up moves will not be considered . Minor intraday support also seen near 6044 therefore its valid break down should also be watched for next more down moves toward next support range 6000-6033

Mid-session Outlook(30-01-2013)

Nifty traded between 6054-6070 with higher levels selling patterns formations and valid break down of 5054 will be next down moves confirmation.  

Post-open Outlook-2(30-01-2013)

Emergence of selling patterns at higher levels today and next moves confirmation range for today is 6033-6068

Post-open Outlook(30-01-2013)

As all the Asian markets are in Green and some are trading with good gains therefore sentiment improved and positive zone trading since opening today. Next resistances are between 6068-6110 and supports are between 6000-6033 and expected that Nifty will trade most time between 6033-6068 and prepare for next moves today. As this range valid break out will be next moves first indication therefore should be firstly watched today.

Correction continuation on cards

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 28 to Jan 29,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6070-6085 in 2 sessions.
2- Selling between 6100-6110 at higher levels after Credit policy today.
3- Huge volatility after RBI Credit policy
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 6043-6110 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As Negative Divergence in EOD charts and selling in 9 previous sessions therefore following topic was updated on 26-01-2013:-

Correction On 29th Jan or From 1st Week of Feb 2013

As higher levels good selling therefore following topic was posted on 28-01-2013:-

Down Moves after RBI Credit Policy

Although good news of quarter pct rate cut of both Repo and CRR by RBI but we were not bullish and when Nifty was trading above 6100 then told following lines in Mid-session Outlook today:-

"valid break out above 6100 is must through sustaining above 6100 because just below it good selling was seen in previous sessions. Now sustaining above 6100 should be firstly watched for decisive up moves confirmations."

Selling and short covering at higher levels on the back of Bullish news lead heated sentiments therefore market could not sustain at higher levels and closed at the bottom of the day today.

9 Sessions selling(resistance) before 25-01-2013 was between 6068-6100 and follow up selling seen within and above this range between 6070-6110 in both previous sessions therefore previous resistances became stronger and telling for more down moves and testing possibility of next supports(6000-6033) in the coming sessions. Correction continuation with Nifty slipping below 6000 and also testing possibility the levels near 5950.

Follow up selling tomorrow will mean consideration of following possibility also:-

"FOMC Meeting is scheduled on January 29-30 and its results will come out in the mid night of 30 Jan. We don't know what will be its outcome but US markets intraday and daily charts are showing selling formations therefore sharp fall in US markets on 30-01-2013 can not be ruled out which may result sharp down moves in Asian and Indian markets on 31st Jan"

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 29-Jan-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 29-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 29-Jan-2013 4389.51 3489.68 899.83

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 29-Jan-2013 1157.83 2096.54 -938.71

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(29-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed except CNX FMCG.

2- Closing near lower levels after RBI Credit policy led high volatility.

1- Shooting Star Bearish Candle formation

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.00

Nifty P/E Ratio(29-Jan-2013): 18.18

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,103 

BSE Declines : 1,736  

NSE Advances :   689 

NSE Declines : 1,150

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -72,600(-8.86%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -657,300(-8.32%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -132,500(-12.84%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  540,100(7.00%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -629,300(-17.38%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -353,850(-4.08%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- 1,057,750(14.65%)

Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- -842,650(-22.12%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,990.90(-112.45 Points & -0.56%)

Nifty- closed at 6,049.90(-24.90 Points & -0.41%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,323.95(-54.90 Points & -0.66%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,634.80(-24.75 Points & -0.68%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6161

R2 6136

R1 6092

Avg 6067

S1 6023

S2 5998

S3 5954

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6118     Trgt 2 

H5 6102     Trgt 1

H4 6086     Long breakout 

H3 6067     Go Short 

H2 6061

H1 6055

L1 6042

L2 6036

L3 6030     Long 

L4 6011     Short Breakout 

L5 5995     Trgt 1 

L6 5979     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6178

R2 6149

R1 6099

Avg 6070

S1 6020

S2 5991

S3 5941

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6128     Trgt 2 

H5 6110     Trgt 1

H4 6092     Long breakout 

H3 6070     Go Short 

H2 6063

H1 6056

L1 6041

L2 6034

L3 6027     Long 

L4 6005     Short Breakout 

L5 5987     Trgt 1 

L6 5969     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 13215

R2 13094

R1 12911

Avg 12790

S1 12607

S2 12486

S3 12303

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 13033     Trgt 2 

H5 12964     Trgt 1

H4 12895     Long breakout 

H3 12811     Go Short 

H2 12783

H1 12755

L1 12700

L2 12672

L3 12644     Long 

L4 12560     Short Breakout 

L5 12491     Trgt 1 

L6 12422     Trgt 2