Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-01-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Good support between 6011-6019
2- Consolidation Patterns between 6020-6033
3- Down moves from higher levels without selling patterns. 
4- Whole day actual trading between 6011-6045

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Following lines told today at 06:10 AM in "Finally Big Correction after sideways Market"

A- Immediate Resistance and supports are as follows:-

1- Resistances between 6068-6100
2- Supports between 6000-6020

B- Under whatsoever Bullish or Bearish sentiment but Nifty will firstly trade between 6000-6100 in the coming session and prepare for next moves,its valid break out will give following conclusions:-

1- Above 6100 will mean slow up moves maximum up to 6331.
2- Below 6000 will mean sharp down moves with deeper correction possibility.

Nifty traded whole day within above mentioned range between 6007.85-6065.30 today and traded most time within above mentioned supports range(6000-6020) as well as closed within it at 6019.35. Although Indian markets traded whole day in Red and also closed negative after slipping from intraday higher levels but selling patterns were not seen today and on the other hand lower levels supports as well as consolidation patterns also seen today.

Finally Big Correction will be seen and its beginning first strong indication will be valid break down of 6000 but supports seen within it today. As selling patterns formation not seen within it today therefore 6000 breaking down can not be projected at this moment and follow up moves will be firstly watched tomorrow for confirmation of next moves beyond 6000-6020,its valid break out will mean following moves:-

1- Deeper correction possibility below 6000 or 
2- Sideways market(6000-6100) above 6020.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 24-Jan-2013 4522.58 3496.26 1026.32

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 24-Jan-2013 1198.24 1950.5 -752.26

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(24-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- All Indices closed in Red and some closed in deep Red but CNX FMCG and CNX IT closed in Green.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.04
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(24-Jan-2013): 18.12

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   706
BSE Declines : 2,175
NSE Advances :   244
NSE Declines : 1,227

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- 2,600(0.29%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- 1,057,350(14.24%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 149,250(12.81%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -554,350(-6.59%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- 1,146,200(32.55%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- -1,260,150(-15.16%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- 1,923,650(27.31%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -426,000(-13.76%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,923.78(-102.83 Points & -0.51%)
Nifty- closed at 6,019.35(-34.95 Points & -0.58%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,205.95(-224.05 Points & -2.66%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,618.05(-95.85 Points & -2.58%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6111

R2 6088

R1 6053

Avg 6030

S1 5995

S2 5972

S3 5937

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6077     Trgt 2 

H5 6064     Trgt 1

H4 6050     Long breakout 

H3 6034     Go Short 

H2 6029

H1 6024

L1 6013

L2 6008

L3 6003     Long 

L4 5987     Short Breakout 

L5 5973     Trgt 1 

L6 5960     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6114

R2 6091

R1 6055

Avg 6032

S1 5996

S2 5973

S3 5937

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6078     Trgt 2 

H5 6064     Trgt 1

H4 6051     Long breakout 

H3 6035     Go Short 

H2 6029

H1 6024

L1 6013

L2 6008

L3 6002     Long 

L4 5986     Short Breakout 

L5 5973     Trgt 1 

L6 5959     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12818

R2 12754

R1 12659

Avg 12595

S1 12500

S2 12436

S3 12341

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12723     Trgt 2 

H5 12687     Trgt 1

H4 12651     Long breakout 

H3 12607     Go Short 

H2 12593

H1 12578

L1 12549

L2 12534

L3 12520     Long 

L4 12476     Short Breakout 

L5 12440     Trgt 1 

L6 12404     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(24-01-2013)

Nifty slipped and again moved into next support range(6000-6020) but without any selling pattern formation at higher levels today and firstly valid break out of 6000-6020 will be watched tomorrow for deeper correction confirmation below 6000 or sideways trend above 6020.

Mid-session Outlook-2(24-01-2013)

Firstly more than 1 hour slipping and after that 2 hours lower levels good supports between 6000-6020 as well as consolidations also between 6019-6033 today therefore possibility of again moving into sideways trend between 6000-6100 because today supports above 6000 and previous sessions good selling below 6100.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade within 6000-6068 and prepare for next moves. Let market prepare for next decisive moves then will be updated according to conclusions from intraday charts patterns formations and till then Nifty will be understood range bound between 6000-6100. 

Mid-session Outlook(24-01-2013)

Although down moves were expected after some more intraday selling but weakness deepened immediately after opening due to negative news from rating agencies and Nifty traded 2 hours between next support range(6000-6020). As sentiment turned depressed and whole market turns Bearish in such mood therefore up moves are being seen after lower levels good supports but again down moves after short covering can not be ruled out.

Expected that Nifty will trade now within 6000-6068,possibility of slipping below 6000 can not be ruled out and view will be Bullish only after complete consolidations and sustaining above 6100.

Post-open Outlook(24-01-2013)

As yesterday last half hour surge was without any lower level consolidations and only a part of Bear market volatility therefore Indian markets slipped immediate after opening and it is weakness indication.

Finally Big Crrection after sideways Market

Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-3 continuation(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-3 continuation begun from 4770.35 and now its Sub Wave-5 is contimued with above mentioned 2 Bearish formations as well as indicators are showing negative divergence also therefore Indian markets are mature for that correction which will correct;-

1- Minimum 38.2% of Whole Wave-3 up move from 4770.35.
2- Sub Wave-5 started from 5548.35 and it will be completely corrected.

Its detailed analysis have already been updated in following topics,Just click following topic link and understand the calculation of Wave-3 targets:-

Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6052-6069
2- Support at 5021
3- Strong recovery in last half hour.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5021-6069 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

High volatility through firstly selling and strong recovery in last half hour after getting support at 5021. Whole day trading within that most crucial range(5020-6068) about which we told many times on 23-01-2013 and reacted in following manner:-

Following line was told at 08:15 AM today in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-01-2013):-

"Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 6020-6068"

Firstly just watch the accuracy of our levels that Nifty traded between 6021.15-6069.80 today

Short term correction was expected and it was seen also but as soon as we saw consolidation from last 1 hour intraday charts then we cover our all shorting positions,its live proof is that we posted our Put Option covering message at  02:48 PM

We covered NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000) at Rs 28/- and that is now trading at Rs 16/-

6020 Was told many times today and Nifty reversed from 6021.15 and it is Short term correction completion strong indication.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Daily Charts are suggesting that Indian markets are at the verge of Big correction and market is preparing also for it through above mentioned formation of 2 Bearish formations near the top of on going rally. Immediate Resistance and supports are as follows:-

1- Resistances between 6068-6100
2- Supports between 6000-6020

As volatility remains high in selling markets therefore last half hour surge on 23-01-2013 will only mean Short term correction completion and any Bullish move will be considered only after completely sustaining above 6100. Although finally deeper correction will be seen in Intermediate term but market will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 6000-6100 because strong resistances and supports within this range.

Under whatsoever Bullish or Bearish sentiment but Nifty will firstly trade between 6000-6100 in the coming session and prepare for next moves,its valid break out will give following conclusions:-

1- Above 6100 will mean slow up moves maxinun upto 6331.
2- Below 6000 will mean sharp down moves with deeper correction possibility.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 23-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 23-Jan-2013 3525.59 2722.97 802.62

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 23-Jan-2013 952.28 1804.61 -852.33

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 23-Jan-2013

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(23-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.

2- Many Indices closed in Red including Midcap and Smallcap.

3- Bullish Hammer Candle formation after lower levels good recovery.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.13

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05

Nifty P/E Ratio(23-Jan-2013):18.23

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,014

BSE Declines : 1,897 

NSE Advances :   472 

NSE Declines : 1,255

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -9,150(-1.03%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -23,050(-0.31%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -47,250(-3.90%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  383,300(4.78%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -349,250(-9.02%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -483,850(-5.50%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -71,100(-1.00%)

Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- -267,550(-7.95%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,026.61(45.04 Points & 0.23%)

Nifty- closed at 6,054.30(5.80 Points & 0.10%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,430.00(-74.75 Points & -0.88%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,713.90(-46.25 Points & -1.23%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6123

R2 6096

R1 6075

Avg 6048

S1 6027

S2 6000

S3 5979

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6102     Trgt 2 

H5 6091     Trgt 1

H4 6080     Long breakout 

H3 6067     Go Short 

H2 6062

H1 6058

L1 6049

L2 6045

L3 6040     Long 

L4 6027     Short Breakout 

L5 6016     Trgt 1 

L6 6005     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6140

R2 6109

R1 6089

Avg 6058

S1 6038

S2 6007

S3 5987

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6120     Trgt 2 

H5 6108     Trgt 1

H4 6097     Long breakout 

H3 6083     Go Short 

H2 6078

H1 6073

L1 6064

L2 6059

L3 6054     Long 

L4 6040     Short Breakout 

L5 6029     Trgt 1 

L6 6017     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12973

R2 12851

R1 12759

Avg 12637

S1 12545

S2 12423

S3 12331

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12884     Trgt 2 

H5 12835     Trgt 1

H4 12785     Long breakout 

H3 12726     Go Short 

H2 12707

H1 12687

L1 12648

L2 12628

L3 12609     Long 

L4 12550     Short Breakout 

L5 12500     Trgt 1 

L6 12451     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(23-01-2013)

Live Proofs of Our Accuracy

Following line was told at 08:15 AM today in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-01-2013):-

"Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 6020-6068"

Firstly just watch the accuracy of our levels that Nifty traded between 6021.15-6069.80 today

Short term correction was expected and it was seen also but as soon as we saw consolidation from last 1 hour intraday charts then we cover our all shorting positions,its live proof is that we posted our Put Option covering message at  02:48 PM

We covered NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000) at Rs 28/- and that is now trading at Rs 16/-

6020 Was told many times today and Nifty reversed from 6021.15 and it is Short term correction completion strong indication.

NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Bought on 18-01-2013-Covering

NIFTY-Put Option(6000)-Positional Bought on 18-01-2013-Cover immediately(Nifty moved down 50 points after our call but premium not increased)-CMP-28(Lalit39)

Mid-session Outlook-2(23-01-2013)

Although sharp fall at 01:13 PM but when Indian markets were trading near higher levels then we told following line at 11:30 AM today:-

Emergence of selling formations

That Short Term correction is being seen about which we are continuously telling for the last 3 days and its continuation is expected as well.

Mid-session Outlook(23-01-2013)

Emergence of selling formations and confirmation are also required through trading ranges valid break out which have already been updated in previous Outlook.