NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Buy-Positional-SL-14-TGT-64-CMP-28.50(Lalit39)
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Pre-Closing Outlook(18-01-2013)
Although strong Global markets and good opening in Indian markets but we were not Bullish and showed our doubts with technical reasons in all the today Outlooks. First 5 hours trading between 6060-6082 and this range broken down after 02:15 PM but before that we told following lines:-
1- At 01:04:PM-"Selling patterns formations at higher levels today"
2- At 11:23 AM-"Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks"
1- At 01:04:PM-"Selling patterns formations at higher levels today"
2- At 11:23 AM-"Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks"
Same view yet which was updated at 11:23 AM today.
Mid-session Outlook(18-01-2013)
As selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore Nifty could not sustain at higher levels retested 6065 at 10:48 AM today. Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks.
Post-open Outlook(18-01-2013)
Although Nifty Jan Fut. has not shown required strength but Nifty Spot is above 6065 after gaining sufficiently required points. As such strong opening and trading so much positive is very much possible in today like heated sentiment therefore next decisive up moves confirmation through sustaining above 6065 after follow up consolidation is still required because selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions.
Pre-open Outlook(18-01-2013)
All the Asian markets are in Green with Nikkei and Hang Sang are more than 2% and 1% up respectively therefore sentiment is strong today morning therefore positive opening will be seen in Indian markets. Good selling seen between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 6065. As Bull Markets consolidate at higher levels and up moves possibilities up to 6331 are still alive therefore rally continuation after follow up consolidation can not be ruled out but follow up selling in heated sentiment today will mean straight fall toward 5970 also.
12 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6065 with good selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore market is well prepared for down moves also but strong Global markets and declaration of RIL Quaeterly results today therefore firstly follow up buying/selling will be watched and valid break out of 6030-6065 will give following moves confirmations;-
1- Above 6065 will mean rally continuation towards 6239.95/6331
2- Below 6030 will mean sharp down toward 5970/5950.
12 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6065 with good selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore market is well prepared for down moves also but strong Global markets and declaration of RIL Quaeterly results today therefore firstly follow up buying/selling will be watched and valid break out of 6030-6065 will give following moves confirmations;-
1- Above 6065 will mean rally continuation towards 6239.95/6331
2- Below 6030 will mean sharp down toward 5970/5950.
Down Moves Possibility also within 12 Sessions Range
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031
1- consolidation between 6001-6017
3- First 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements
4- Selling Patterns between 6040-6052
5- Rising Channel broken down
6- Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
7- Whole day actual trading between 6000-6052
First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031 with consolidation between 6001-6017 and first 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements but selling patterns formations also between 6040-6052 therefore market could not sustain at higher levels and slipped. As Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore this channel also broken down after higher levels seling and closing seen below it today.
12 Sessions trading between 5950-6065 with following immediate supports and resistances:
1- Supports- 5970-6017
2- Resistances- 6030-6065
Intraday selling was seen in previous sessions between 6030-6065 and again selling patterns formations between this range today therefore previous resistance becomes stronger and down moves between 5950-6065 can not be ruled out in the coming sessions. As last 2 hours trading between 6030-60652 was Fuel relating positive announcements generated and market forces reacts in their own manner after such news therefore therefore valid break out of 6030-6065 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next down moves confirmations between 12 sessions range(5950-6065)
If global markets does not gives any side strong sentiment then Nifty will firstly trade between today trading range(6000-6052). As higher levels selling today therefore down moves are possible between 5970-6000.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031
1- consolidation between 6001-6017
3- First 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements
4- Selling Patterns between 6040-6052
5- Rising Channel broken down
6- Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
7- Whole day actual trading between 6000-6052
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031 with consolidation between 6001-6017 and first 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements but selling patterns formations also between 6040-6052 therefore market could not sustain at higher levels and slipped. As Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore this channel also broken down after higher levels seling and closing seen below it today.
12 Sessions trading between 5950-6065 with following immediate supports and resistances:
1- Supports- 5970-6017
2- Resistances- 6030-6065
Intraday selling was seen in previous sessions between 6030-6065 and again selling patterns formations between this range today therefore previous resistance becomes stronger and down moves between 5950-6065 can not be ruled out in the coming sessions. As last 2 hours trading between 6030-60652 was Fuel relating positive announcements generated and market forces reacts in their own manner after such news therefore therefore valid break out of 6030-6065 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next down moves confirmations between 12 sessions range(5950-6065)
If global markets does not gives any side strong sentiment then Nifty will firstly trade between today trading range(6000-6052). As higher levels selling today therefore down moves are possible between 5970-6000.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-Jan-2013)
1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green except CNX SMALLCAP.
2- Diesel deregulation positive news led up moves but not sustaining at higher levels also.
3- White Candle formations.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.93
Nifty P/E Ratio(17-Jan-2013): 18.20
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,380
BSE Declines : 1,503
NSE Advances : 656
NSE Declines : 779
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -4,650(-0.69%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- -47,050(-0.92%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 5,550(0.60%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- 669,050(8.96%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -4,200(-0.25%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 806,800(10.34%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -116,500(-2.62%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 1,452,350(24.57%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -421,700(-6.57%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 138,850(7.41%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,964.03(146.40 Points & 0.74%)
Nifty- closed at 6,039.20(37.35 Points & 0.62%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,592.85(25.80 Points & 0.30%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,787.15(-1.75 Points & -0.05%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-01-2013
R3 6130
R2 6091
R1 6065
Avg 6026
S1 6000
S2 5961
S3 5935
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6104 Trgt 2
H5 6089 Trgt 1
H4 6074 Long breakout
H3 6056 Go Short
H2 6050
H1 6044
L1 6033
L2 6027
L3 6021 Long
L4 6003 Short Breakout
L5 5988 Trgt 1
L6 5973 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-01-2013
R3 6156
R2 6114
R1 6084
Avg 6042
S1 6012
S2 5970
S3 5940
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6126 Trgt 2
H5 6110 Trgt 1
H4 6093 Long breakout
H3 6073 Go Short
H2 6067
H1 6060
L1 6047
L2 6040
L3 6034 Long
L4 6014 Short Breakout
L5 5997 Trgt 1
L6 5981 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-01-2013
R3 12931
R2 12853
R1 12771
Avg 12693
S1 12611
S2 12533
S3 12451
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12850 Trgt 2
H5 12814 Trgt 1
H4 12778 Long breakout
H3 12734 Go Short
H2 12719
H1 12704
L1 12675
L2 12660
L3 12646 Long
L4 12602 Short Breakout
L5 12565 Trgt 1
L6 12529 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(17-01-2013)
Indian market gave positive indication through outperforming Global cues and it was updated also at 10:17 AM today. First 4 hours trading between 6001-6031 with consolidation between 6001-6017 today. As 6031 Broken out after Fuel relating positive announcements and after that up moves are positive news generated therefore firstly confirmation is required through sustaining above 6031.
Now Nifty is trading between next resistance range(6030-3065) therefore complete consolidation is required for break out above 6065 but positive news generated short covering by general traders also can not be ruled out within this range.
Valid break out of 6030-3065 is most crucial now for next immediate moves confirmations therefore should be firstly watched.
Now Nifty is trading between next resistance range(6030-3065) therefore complete consolidation is required for break out above 6065 but positive news generated short covering by general traders also can not be ruled out within this range.
Valid break out of 6030-3065 is most crucial now for next immediate moves confirmations therefore should be firstly watched.
Mid-session Outlook(17-01-2013)
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) did not hiked Fuel price today and partial deregulation of Diesel decided therefore Indian markets soared. Indian markets gave positive indications immediately after opening and economy favouring decision gave up moves trigger.
As intraday charts are showing consolidation between 6001-6017 today therefore this range will give support but good selling between 6030-3065 yesterday therefore more follow up consolidation is required for next rally above 6065. Nifty traded first 4 hours between 6001-6031 today and firstly sustaining above 6031 should be watched for next rally confirmation because today last half hour up moves are positive news reaction also.
As intraday charts are showing consolidation between 6001-6017 today therefore this range will give support but good selling between 6030-3065 yesterday therefore more follow up consolidation is required for next rally above 6065. Nifty traded first 4 hours between 6001-6031 today and firstly sustaining above 6031 should be watched for next rally confirmation because today last half hour up moves are positive news reaction also.
Post-open Outlook(17-01-2013)
Although all the Asian markets are in Red and some are sufficiently down also as well as Dow's Futures is also 35 points down but Indian markets outperformed and .20 up today. It is first positive indication and follow up consolidation is must after good selling yesterday.. Quiet market is expected if big fall is not seen in Global markets.
Let market prepare and intraday charts form patterns then next expected moves will be updated accordingly,as if now we can say only positive indications development today and also possible that Indian markets will firstly prepare for next moves between 5970-6030.
Let market prepare and intraday charts form patterns then next expected moves will be updated accordingly,as if now we can say only positive indications development today and also possible that Indian markets will firstly prepare for next moves between 5970-6030.
11 Sessions range trapped market & Big Trend Ahead
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jan-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 6050-6055
2- Selling between 6030-6048
3- Sharp down moves in last 40 minutes.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5992-6055.
9 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6026 from 02-01-2013 to 14-01-2013 and its break out was seen yesterday but Nifty again slipped into this range after higher levels good selling and closing within this range at 6001.85 today. Now actual trading range has changed after good selling today and valid break out of following range will decide next trend:-
Now we are reproducing all those most crucial technical views which have already been updated in previous 4 days:-
Following 2 targets were updated in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing on 13-01-2013:-
1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 minimum and maximum targets are between 6031-6331.
2- Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is on and its minimum target is 6239.95.
As Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 has achieved its minimum target after trading above 6031 and made a top of 6068.50 on 15-01-2013 after gaining 1298.15 points therefore its correction beginning possibility after mentioned Wave completion at 6068.50 can not be ruled out. Whenever correction will start then will be deep because market will correct whole 1298.15 points or may be more also if correction starts after making new top formation above 6068.50
It should be kept in mind that on going Sub Wave-5 which started from 5548.35 on 20-11-2012 is showing Negative Divergence and lacking required force also therefore expected that whole up move of this wave will also be corrected after reversal of on going rally. its detailed analysis has already been updated in following topic on 13-01-2013:-
Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-01-2013)
Although Wave-3 correction will start between 6031-6331 but before that complete selling patterns are required in intraday and minimum on Daily charts,until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered. As no such development yet therefore rally continuation will be seen in the coming sessions but with intraday to very short term corrections also.
As weakness perceived therefore down moves possibilities with technical positions were also updated in all intraday Outlooks and following lines were told:-
1- Told at 11:122 AM-"Intraday charts are showing intraday selling patterns between 6050-6055 today"
2- Told at 12:11 PM-"Confirm intraday selling between 6050-6055 today"
3- Told at 12:40 PM-"Lower top formation at 6041 with minor intraday selling between 6035-6041 and emergence of more down moves possibility toward 6019 and below"
4- Told at 02:42 PM-"As last more than 2 hours trading is showing intraday selling patterns again therefore more down moves are expected below 6019"
As per our view above mentioned major correction will be seen after Union Budget-2013 and till then slow up moves toward 6331 are possible. Although Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 has achived its minimum target after trading above 6031 but top of the rally has not got confirmation yet and it may be above present top(6068.50) also. As Nifty reentered into 9 Sessions sideways trading range(now changed to 5950-6065) therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched for following conclusions:-
1- Below 5950 will mean above mentioned complete correction of whole 1298.15 points.
2- Above 6055 will mean up moves toward 6331 and then firstly selling patterns formations are must on intraday and daily charts and after that complete correction of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 gaining points will be seen.
Tomorrow Outlook
11 Sessions trading trapped between 5950-6065 and news based high volatility last 4 sessions within it. Expected that Nifty will remain range bound within this range in the coming sessions and prepare for next big trend. Immediate supports and resistances between this range are as follows:-
1- Supports- 5970-6000
2- Resistances- 6030-6065
Nifty will firstly trade between 5970-6030 in the coming sessions and prepare for next moves tomorrow . Let market prepare then next moves will be updated in Mid Sessions Outlooks according to intraday charts patterns formations.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6050-6055
2- Selling between 6030-6048
3- Sharp down moves in last 40 minutes.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5992-6055.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
9 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6026 from 02-01-2013 to 14-01-2013 and its break out was seen yesterday but Nifty again slipped into this range after higher levels good selling and closing within this range at 6001.85 today. Now actual trading range has changed after good selling today and valid break out of following range will decide next trend:-
5950-6065
Now we are reproducing all those most crucial technical views which have already been updated in previous 4 days:-
Following 2 targets were updated in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing on 13-01-2013:-
1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 minimum and maximum targets are between 6031-6331.
2- Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is on and its minimum target is 6239.95.
As Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 has achieved its minimum target after trading above 6031 and made a top of 6068.50 on 15-01-2013 after gaining 1298.15 points therefore its correction beginning possibility after mentioned Wave completion at 6068.50 can not be ruled out. Whenever correction will start then will be deep because market will correct whole 1298.15 points or may be more also if correction starts after making new top formation above 6068.50
It should be kept in mind that on going Sub Wave-5 which started from 5548.35 on 20-11-2012 is showing Negative Divergence and lacking required force also therefore expected that whole up move of this wave will also be corrected after reversal of on going rally. its detailed analysis has already been updated in following topic on 13-01-2013:-
Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-01-2013)
Although Wave-3 correction will start between 6031-6331 but before that complete selling patterns are required in intraday and minimum on Daily charts,until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered. As no such development yet therefore rally continuation will be seen in the coming sessions but with intraday to very short term corrections also.
As weakness perceived therefore down moves possibilities with technical positions were also updated in all intraday Outlooks and following lines were told:-
1- Told at 11:122 AM-"Intraday charts are showing intraday selling patterns between 6050-6055 today"
2- Told at 12:11 PM-"Confirm intraday selling between 6050-6055 today"
3- Told at 12:40 PM-"Lower top formation at 6041 with minor intraday selling between 6035-6041 and emergence of more down moves possibility toward 6019 and below"
4- Told at 02:42 PM-"As last more than 2 hours trading is showing intraday selling patterns again therefore more down moves are expected below 6019"
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
As per our view above mentioned major correction will be seen after Union Budget-2013 and till then slow up moves toward 6331 are possible. Although Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 has achived its minimum target after trading above 6031 but top of the rally has not got confirmation yet and it may be above present top(6068.50) also. As Nifty reentered into 9 Sessions sideways trading range(now changed to 5950-6065) therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched for following conclusions:-
1- Below 5950 will mean above mentioned complete correction of whole 1298.15 points.
2- Above 6055 will mean up moves toward 6331 and then firstly selling patterns formations are must on intraday and daily charts and after that complete correction of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 gaining points will be seen.
Tomorrow Outlook
11 Sessions trading trapped between 5950-6065 and news based high volatility last 4 sessions within it. Expected that Nifty will remain range bound within this range in the coming sessions and prepare for next big trend. Immediate supports and resistances between this range are as follows:-
1- Supports- 5970-6000
2- Resistances- 6030-6065
Nifty will firstly trade between 5970-6030 in the coming sessions and prepare for next moves tomorrow . Let market prepare then next moves will be updated in Mid Sessions Outlooks according to intraday charts patterns formations.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Jan-2013)
1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX ENERGY.
2- Closing near the lowest of the day after goor selling.
3- Black Candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.92
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Jan-2013): 18.02
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 905
BSE Declines : 2,069
NSE Advances : 420
NSE Declines : 1,352
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -600(-0.09%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- 284,150(5.82%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -2,600(-0.28%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- 105,900(1.44%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- 99,900(6.23%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- -60,800(-0.74%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- 568,800(14.31%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -684,650(-9.79%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,817.63(-169.19 Points & -0.85%)
Nifty- closed at 8,567.05(-117.20 Points & -1.35%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,567.05(-117.20 Points & -1.35%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,788.90(-59.20 Points & -1.54%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-01-2013
R3 6103
R2 6079
R1 6040
Avg 6016
S1 5977
S2 5953
S3 5914
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6064 Trgt 2
H5 6049 Trgt 1
H4 6035 Long breakout
H3 6018 Go Short
H2 6012
H1 6006
L1 5995
L2 5989
L3 5983 Long
L4 5966 Short Breakout
L5 5952 Trgt 1
L6 5937 Trgt 2
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