As Dow'Futures is more than 60 points up and European markets are trading positive therefore sentiment improved and recovery seen from lower levels today and Nifty is trading above 5615. Nifty traded last more than 10 hours between 5583-5624 with intraday selling formation at higher levels within this range and until Nifty will not sustain above this range till then deeper correction will be expected below 5583.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook-2 (31-10-2012)
Last more than 4 hours trading between 5590-5615 with higher levels intraday selling patterns yesterday and today again almost same range first 4 hours trading between 5583--5610. More than 8 hours trading between 5583-5615 in 2 sessions and this range final break out will give following conclusions:-
1- Below 5583 will be validation of 24 sessions trading range breaking down. As selling formations seen within this range yesterday therefore its possibility is very much alive.
2- Above 5615 will mean reentering possibility into 24 sessions trading range after false break down on 30-10-2012.
1- Below 5583 will be validation of 24 sessions trading range breaking down. As selling formations seen within this range yesterday therefore its possibility is very much alive.
2- Above 5615 will mean reentering possibility into 24 sessions trading range after false break down on 30-10-2012.
Mid-session Outlook(31-10-2012)
Firstly forceful breaking down of last 24 sessions range and after that last more than 4 hours trading between 5590-5615 yesterday with intraday selling patterns at higher levels within this range. Today first 2 hours trading between 5,586-5,610 and until Nifty will not sustain above 5615 till then next up move will not be considered because intraday selling patterns just below it yesterday.
Emergence of Bearish pattern of Head and Shoulders in last 24 sessions and its Neckline broken down at 5634 yesterday but broken down confirmation is left. As selling just below 5615 yesterday therefore expected that more down moves will be seen below today lows(5586) also.
Emergence of Bearish pattern of Head and Shoulders in last 24 sessions and its Neckline broken down at 5634 yesterday but broken down confirmation is left. As selling just below 5615 yesterday therefore expected that more down moves will be seen below today lows(5586) also.
Big Correction below Head & Shoulder's Neckline
Technical Analysis and Research For 31-10-2012
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2012):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-2 completion and Wave-3 beginning (4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-3(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-3(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4 of Wave-3(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 completion at 5815.35 on 05-10-2012.
7- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 gained 600 Nifty points.
8- Wave-3 gained 1045 Nifty points.
7- 16 Sessions sideways correction between 5639-5733.
8- 24 Sessions most time trading between 5639-5733 with Bearish Head & Shoulders formation and its Neckline forcefully broken down on 30-10-2012.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
16 Sessions sideways correction between 5639-5733 but strong indication of deeper correction after Bearish Head & Shoulders formation in last 24 sessions as well as its neckline broken down on 30-10-2012 after RBI Credit Policy announcement. Although forceful break down and closing also well below neckline but firstly break down validity confirmation is required through following 2 filters:-
1- 3 Days sustaining below Neckline and/or
2- Slipping 3% below Neckline.
Breaking down confirmation will mean possibility of following 2 corrective moves:-
1- Firstly correction of 600 Nifty points up moves of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012
2 As correction of Wave-3 started after completion of Sub Wave-5 therefore Indian markets are technically mature for 'ABC' correction of whole 1045 Nifty points up moves of Wave-3 from 04-06-2012 to 05-10-2012
Firstly understand the validity of correction and get confirmation through above mentioned 2 filters and then prepare yourself for above 2 corrective deeper down moves.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 30-Oct-2012
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(30-Oct-2012)
1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX IT and CNX MEDIA.
2- Sharp fall after RBI Credit policy.
3- Long Black Candle formation.
Ratios
Nifty P/E Ratio(30-Oct-2012): 17.56
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 969
BSE Declines : 1,838
NSE Advances : 506
NSE Declines : 1,219
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5400 CE(Nov)- -6,600(-0.39%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Nov)- 323,200(8.02%)
Nifty- 5500 CE(Nov)- 64,700(8.23%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Nov)- 943,400(27.16%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(Nov)- 1,151,100(95.55%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Nov)- 404,450(8.99%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Nov)- 1,394,700(41.15%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Nov)- -414,650(-10.24%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 18430.85(-204.97 Points & -1.10%)
Nifty- closed at 5,597.90(-67.70 Points & -1.19%)
CNX Midcap - 7,682.35closed at (-84.20 Points & -1.08%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,382.55(-46.05 Points & -1.34%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-10-2012
R3 5761
R2 5725
R1 5661
Avg 5625
S1 5561
S2 5525
S3 5461
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5697 Trgt 2
H5 5674 Trgt 1
H4 5652 Long breakout
H3 5624 Go Short
H2 5615
H1 5606
L1 5587
L2 5578
L3 5569 Long
L4 5542 Short Breakout
L5 5519 Trgt 1
L6 5496 Trgt 2
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-10-2012
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels
R3 5800
R2 5762
R1 5695
Avg 5657
S1 5590
S2 5552
S3 5485
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5733 Trgt 2
H5 5709 Trgt 1
H4 5685 Long breakout
H3 5656 Go Short
H2 5647
H1 5637
L1 5618
L2 5608
L3 5599 Long
L4 5570 Short Breakout
L5 5546 Trgt 1
L6 5522 Trgt 2
R3 5800
R2 5762
R1 5695
Avg 5657
S1 5590
S2 5552
S3 5485
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5733 Trgt 2
H5 5709 Trgt 1
H4 5685 Long breakout
H3 5656 Go Short
H2 5647
H1 5637
L1 5618
L2 5608
L3 5599 Long
L4 5570 Short Breakout
L5 5546 Trgt 1
L6 5522 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-10-2012
R3 11993
R2 11839
R1 11559
Avg 11405
S1 11125
S2 10971
S3 10691
Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11714 Trgt 2
H5 11615 Trgt 1
H4 11517 Long breakout
H3 11398 Go Short
H2 11358
H1 11318
L1 11239
L2 11199
L3 11159 Long
L4 11040 Short Breakout
L5 10942 Trgt 1
L6 10843 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(30-10-2012)
24 Sessions trading range(5639-5733) forcefully breaking down as well as deeper correction strong indication after RBI Credit Policy announcement today. As Head and Shoulders like strong Bearish formation confirmation after its neckline breaking down therefore more down moves can not be ruled out in the coming sessions.
Mid-session Outlook-2(30-10-2012)
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram clearly showed his surprise and disappointment on today RBI Credit Policy announcement and it seems that there is lack of coordination between both key institutions. As such high level contradiction and confrontation therefore forceful breaking down and sustaining below(5639) last 24 sessions trading range.
As sustaining below 5639 will mean deeper correction therefore its technical form was updated in following topic on 27-10-2012. Just click following topic link and understand technical points:-
As sustaining below 5639 will mean deeper correction therefore its technical form was updated in following topic on 27-10-2012. Just click following topic link and understand technical points:-
Mid-session Outlook(30-10-2012)
As last 2 sessions intraday charts showed intraday consolidation patterns therefore Indian markets were positive immediately after opening today and also more than .25% up just before RBI Credit Policy announcements. As Credit Policy could not fulfill the expectations of market and only CRR cut by .25% but no change in rates therefore market slipped immediately after opening as well as traded below 5639.
Bank Nifty was almost 1% up before RBI Credit Policy announcements but now more than 1% down after Credit policy.
Sentiment fused after Credit policy and Nifty sustaining below 5639 as well as 24 sessions trading range breaking down possibility can not be ruled out.
Bank Nifty was almost 1% up before RBI Credit Policy announcements but now more than 1% down after Credit policy.
Sentiment fused after Credit policy and Nifty sustaining below 5639 as well as 24 sessions trading range breaking down possibility can not be ruled out.
Rally after RBI Credit Policy
Nifty-Micro Analysis of 2 Sessions Intra Day
Chart(Oct 26 to Oct 29,2012)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 26 to Oct 29,2012):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Last 2 sessions trading between 5642-5697
2- Last 2 sessions down moves in falling channel
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
As consolidation pattern formations in last 2 sessions through falling channel down moves therefore Indian markets are technically prepared for up moves as well as emergence of rally possibility after RBI Credit Policy tomorrow.
Next trend confirmations levels are as follows:-
1- 5642-5697
2- 5639-5733
Just click following topic link for detailed analysis of Indian Stock Markets:-
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 29-Oct-2012
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(29-Oct-2012)
1- Benchmark Indices closed flat.
2- Many i Indices closed in Red after slipping from higher levels.
3- Doji Candle formation.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.95
Nifty P/E Ratio(29-Oct-2012): 17.76
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,218 (41%)
BSE Declines : 1,631 (55%)
NSE Advances : 546 (36%)
NSE Declines : 890 (59%)
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5500 CE(Nov)- 30,450(3.95%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Nov)- 233,600(7.15%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(Nov)- 2,000(0.16%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Nov)- 484,750(11.93%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Nov)- 349,900(11.27%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Nov)- 500,250(13.92%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Nov)- 585,450(17.02%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Nov)- 16,250(0.96%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 18635.82(10.48 Points & 0.06%)
Nifty- closed at 5,665.60(1.30 Points & 0.02%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,766.55(-23.95 Points & -0.31%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,428.60(-15.10 Points & -0.44%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-10-2012
R3 5746
R2 5722
R1 5693
Avg 5669
S1 5640
S2 5616
S3 5587
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5718 Trgt 2
H5 5706 Trgt 1
H4 5694 Long breakout
H3 5679 Go Short
H2 5674
H1 5669
L1 5660
L2 5655
L3 5650 Long
L4 5635 Short Breakout
L5 5623 Trgt 1
L6 5611 Trgt 2
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-10-2012
R3 5779
R2 5754
R1 5728
Avg 5703
S1 5677
S2 5652
S3 5626
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5753 Trgt 2
H5 5741 Trgt 1
H4 5730 Long breakout
H3 5716 Go Short
H2 5711
H1 5706
L1 5697
L2 5692
L3 5687 Long
L4 5673 Short Breakout
L5 5662 Trgt 1
L6 5650 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-10-2012
R3 11791
R2 11725
R1 11644
Avg 11578
S1 11497
S2 11431
S3 11350
Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11710 Trgt 2
H5 11677 Trgt 1
H4 11643 Long breakout
H3 11603 Go Short
H2 11589
H1 11576
L1 11549
L2 11536
L3 11522 Long
L4 11482 Short Breakout
L5 11448 Trgt 1
L6 11415 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(29-10-2012)
Although Indian markets are trading near intraday lower levels at this moment but intraday patterns are showing consolidation indications therefore bouncing back possibility is very much alive after RBI Credit Policy tomorrow.
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