Mid-session Outlook(25-01-2012)

As mixed Patterns between 4120-4140 yesterday therefore next moves preparation near about this range today. Nifty is trading above 200-Day EMA(5130) since opening today and sustaining above will mean long term trend turning up.

Intraday support between 5130-5140 seen today and intraday patterns are also showing consolidation formations therefore more up moves possibilities turned higher now.

RBI Credit Policy triggered Sparkling Rally

Technical Analysis and Research For 
25-01-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart(24-Jan-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling Trendline 14 months correction
2- 200-Day EMA at 5130
3- 200-Day SMA at 5212
4- 3 Times resistance at 200-Day SMA

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(24-Jan-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 5050-5068
2- Sharp rally after RBI Credit policy
3- Mixed Patterns between 4120-4140 in last more than 3 hours with tripple top formation.
4- Whole day trading between 5050-4140

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As last 2 days intraday selling patterns therefore correction was expected today but as soon as positive zone and higher levels trading was seen we cautioned and confirmation requirement was updated in following line at 09:50:00 AM today;-

"news based market today therefore sustaining beyond 5058 should be firstly watched for confirmations"

As infusion of liquidity in RBI Credit Policy therefore sentiment enthused and sharp rally was seen after its announcement. Short term was already up and Intermediate term trend turned up above 5099 but its confirmation is also required through sustaining above 5099. Nifty tested 200-Day EMA(5130) today and sustaining above it will be strong indication of all trends turning up but confirmation will be after sustaining above 200-Day SMA(5212) because Nifty got stiff resistance at 200-Day SMA 3 times earlier.

Nifty traded between 4532-5399 in last 110 sessions and finally sustaining above 5399 will mean worst is over. Next resistances within this range are as follows:-

1- 5130-5225
2- 5260-5310
3- 5340-5375

Next resistance is most crucial because 200-Day SMA(5212) is falling within it.

As mixed intraday patterns between 5120-5140 in last more than 3 hours with tripple top formation therefore sustaining beyond will be firstly watched tomorrow and that will give confirmation that next moves after minor correction or without any further correction.

Expected that firstly minor intraday correction will be seen tomorrow.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 24-Jan-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Jan-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 24-Jan-2012 3011.11 2209.82 801.29

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 24-Jan-2012 1391.98 1654.63 -262.65

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(24-Jan-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Green.
3- RBI Credit polocy triggered strong rally.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.32
Nifty P/E Ratio(24-Jan-2012): 18.28

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1596
BSE Declines : 1217
NSE Advances : 888
NSE Declines : 556

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Jan)- -1860000(-40.67%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Jan)- +813500(+12.63%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Jan)- -1397100(-21.00%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Jan)- +1649750(+64.15%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Jan)- +77000(+1.41%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Jan)- +606350(+144.30%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,127.35(+81.10 Points & +1.61%)
Sensex- closed at 16,995.77(+244.04 Points & +1.46%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,954.05(+119.85 Points & +1.75%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,338.01(+44.00 Points & +0.70%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5254
R2 5197
R1 5162
Avg 5105
S1 5070
S2 5013
S3 4978

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5220     Trgt 2
H5 5199     Trgt 1
H4 5177     Long breakout
H3 5152     Go Short
H2 5143
H1 5135
L1 5118
L2 5110
L3 5101     Long
L4 5076     Short Breakout
L5 5054     Trgt 1
L6 5033     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 5264
R2 5206
R1 5163
Avg 5105
S1 5062
S2 5004
S3 4961

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5222     Trgt 2
H5 5199     Trgt 1
H4 5175     Long breakout
H3 5147     Go Short
H2 5138
H1 5129
L1 5110
L2 5101
L3 5092     Long
L4 5064     Short Breakout
L5 5041     Trgt 1
L6 5017     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 10473
R2 10195
R1 10016
Avg 9738
S1 9559
S2 9281
S3 9102

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10312     Trgt 2
H5 10200     Trgt 1
H4 10088     Long breakout
H3 9962     Go Short
H2 9920
H1 9878
L1 9795
L2 9753
L3 9711     Long
L4 9585     Short Breakout
L5 9473     Trgt 1
L6 9361     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(24-01-2012)

Strong rally after RBI Credit policy and after that more than 3 hours trading between 5120-5140. Next resistance range is between 5130-5225. As good run up today therefore its minor correction is firstly possible tomorrow.

Liquidity infusion enthused sentiment

Mid-session Outlook(24-01-2012)

Sentiment glittered after RBI cutting CRR by 50 BPS and all the Indices surged. As today opening was positive and traded at higher levels therefore we told at 09:50:00 AM for confirmation through sustaining beyond 5058.

Rally is very much on and Nifty tested 200-Day EMA(5130) today, sustaining above it will be strong indication of all trends turning up as well as more up moves.

Credit policy: RBI cuts CRR by 50 BPS

The Reserve Bank of India in its quarterly review meet on Tuesday cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps to ease tight liquidity pressure in the banking system. RBI kept repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 8.5% and 7.5% respectively, despite mounting anxiety over slowdown in growth.

The cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits that banks have to hold with the RBI, is a popular instrument to inject cash into the system. It now stands at 5.5%.

Tuesday's cut lowers the CRR to 5.50 per cent from 6.00 per cent, where it had stood since April 2010, and releases Rs 32,000 crore ($6.4 billion) of liquidity into the banking system, the RBI said.

Post-open Outlook(24-01-2012)

Last 2 sessions higher levels intraday selling patterns but positive zone trading after Green opening above 5058 today. View of correction possibility is still maintained but news based market today therefore sustaining beyond 5058 should be firstly watched for confirmations.

Correction despite whatsoever RBI Credit Policy tomorrow

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(23-Jan-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5044-5058 after Selling between 5035-5053 last Friday
2- Hanging Man like Bearish candle today after Hanging Man / Dragonfly Doji (Bearish)Candle last Friday.
3- Whole day trading between 5030-5058

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Today and last Friday intraday selling positions have been updated above. We don't about RBI Credit tomorrow but expected that Indian markets will finally move down after announcement of Credit Policy. As uncertainity therefore Market may be volatile but until Nifty will not sustain above sustain above 5058 till then any up move will not be considered.

Sustaining beyond following ranges will be next moves confirmation therefore may be watched also for confirmations:-

1- 5030-5058(First strong indication)
2- 5004-5064(Confirmation)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 23-Jan-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 23-Jan-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 23-Jan-2012 1579.16 1637.96 -58.8

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 23-Jan-2012 873.05 1311.53 -438.48

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(23-Jan-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Flat closing in tight range market.
2- White Candle.
3- All the indices are mixed. Some closed positive while others closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.30
Nifty P/E Ratio(23-Jan-2012): 18.14

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1458
BSE Declines : 1332
NSE Advances : 708
NSE Declines : 734

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Jan)- +529300(+19.11%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Jan)- +950850(+14.24%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Jan)- +181550(+3.96%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Jan)- +951900(+16.91%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Jan)- +612950(+9.76%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Jan)- +320450(+14.13%)


Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,046.25(-2.35 Points & -00.05%)
Sensex- closed at 16,751.73(+12.72 Points & +0.08%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,834.20(+31.05 Points & +0.46%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,294.01(+16.74 Points & +0.27%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5101
R2 5080
R1 5063
Avg 5042
S1 5025
S2 5004
S3 4987

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5084     Trgt 2
H5 5075     Trgt 1
H4 5066     Long breakout
H3 5056     Go Short
H2 5052
H1 5049
L1 5042
L2 5039
L3 5035     Long
L4 5025     Short Breakout
L5 5016     Trgt 1
L6 5007     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 5092
R2 5077
R1 5064
Avg 5049
S1 5036
S2 5021
S3 5008

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5079     Trgt 2
H5 5072     Trgt 1
H4 5066     Long breakout
H3 5058     Go Short
H2 5056
H1 5053
L1 5048
L2 5045
L3 5043     Long
L4 5035     Short Breakout
L5 5029     Trgt 1
L6 5022     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 9827
R2 9743
R1 9638
Avg 9554
S1 9449
S2 9365
S3 9260

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9724     Trgt 2
H5 9681     Trgt 1
H4 9637     Long breakout
H3 9585     Go Short
H2 9568
H1 9551
L1 9516
L2 9499
L3 9482     Long
L4 9430     Short Breakout
L5 9386     Trgt 1
L6 9343     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(23-01-2012)

Whatsoever happened in Indian markets today all that was written in our Blog well before the opening of today market. We gave only 17 points range(5035-5053) and Nifty traded almost whole time within this range.

It is confirm that big moves will be seen after the break out of this range but very small trading range in news based market today but we shall try to understand from all the analytical tools and then will post our final conclusions and next possibilities before the opening of tomorrow market.

Mid-session Outlook-2(23-01-2012)

Following first indication range was given before the opening of today market in Weekly Outlook:-

1- 5035-5053(First Indication)

Our accuracy of levels can be understood from this fact that today first 4 hours trading range is 5030-5059 with selling indications at higher levels and lower levels supports also therefore today trading range break out and sustaining beyond will give next moves confirmations and will be firstly watched.