Rally above 5400 in next week

Technical Analysis,Research and Weekly Outlook For Nov 08 to Nov 11,2011

Nifty-Weekly Chart(04-Nov-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Wave-3 completed and Wave-4 begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338.
2- Last one year corrective Wave-4 in Falling Channel.
3- Wave-4 completed and Wave-5 started on 26-08-2011 from 4720
4- Wave-5 is in Progress.

Nifty-EOD Chart(04-Nov-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling Trendline
2- Market retraced 4 times earlier sfter getting resistance from this Trend line.
3- Break out of 54 Sessions range bound market
4- 16 Days Rally and tested Falling Trendline
5- Fresh up moves are on after 3 Days correction

Conclusions

Correction in falling channel and after that 54 sessions range bound market between 4720-5229 was seen after 94 Points gap down on 05-08-2011. Break out of this range bound market was seen in 16 sessions previous month rally but immediately after that 3 days correction of this rally was seen.

Next Supports of this rally are as follows:-

1- 5257-5277
2- 5203-5224

Next Resistances of this rally are as follows:-

1- 5310-5324
2- 5318-5365

Most uncertain news flow from Euro zone and highly volatile markets. Rally started on 07-10-2011 and after 16 days its correction was seen in previous week. As up moves were seen in previous two sessions after getting supports at above mentioned therefore strong indications of Correction completion and high possibility of rally in the coming week.

Nifty got 4 times resistance at falling trend line and also again faced resistance here in previuos week but it was due to confusing news from Greece. Strong indications of correction completion and if any big adverse news does not comes up from Europe then firstly consolidation at higher levels and after that continuation of rally above 5400 will be seen in the coming week/weeks.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 04-Nov-2011

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(04-Nov-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green ecxept Oil & gAS.
2- Black Candle.
3- Slipped from higher levels but support at lower levels also.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.95
Nifty P/E Ratio(04-Nov-2011): 19.21

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1572
BSE DECLINES : 1271
NSE ADVANCES :  856
NSE DECLINES :  578

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Nov)- -44150(-1.70%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Nov)- +692050(+14.64%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Nov)- -176950(-3.94%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Nov)- +386150(+13.23%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Nov)- +664900(+11.77%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Nov)- +208600(+19.55%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,284.20(+18.45 Points & +0.35%)
Sensex- closed at 17,562.61(+80.68 Points & +0.46% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,320.00(+70.85 Points & +0.98%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,958.13(+26.15 Points & +0.38%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 04-Nov-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 04-Nov-2011 2256.56 2127.94 128.62

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 04-Nov-2011 938.47 867.98 70.49

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-11-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5391
R2 5358
R1 5321
Avg 5288
S1 5251
S2 5218
S3 5181

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5354     Trgt 2
H5 5338     Trgt 1
H4 5322     Long breakout
H3 5303     Go Short
H2 5296
H1 5290
L1 5277
L2 5271
L3 5264     Long
L4 5245    Short Breakout
L5 5229     Trgt 1
L6 5213     Trgt 2

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-11-2011

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 5421
R2 5387
R1 5351
Avg 5317
S1 5281
S2 5247
S3 5211

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5386     Trgt 2
H5 5370     Trgt 1
H4 5354     Long breakout
H3 5335     Go Short
H2 5328
H1 5322
L1 5309
L2 5303
L3 5296     Long
L4 5277    Short Breakout
L5 5261     Trgt 1
L6 5245     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-11-2011

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 10046
R2 9998
R1 9939
Avg 9891
S1 9832
S2 9784
S3 9725

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9988     Trgt 2
H5 9964     Trgt 1
H4 9939     Long breakout
H3 9910     Go Short
H2 9900
H1 9890
L1 9871
L2 9861
L3 9851     Long
L4 9822     Short Breakout
L5 9797     Trgt 1
L6 9773     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 08 to Nov 11,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5353
R2 5306
R1 5295
Avg 5248
S1 5237
S2 5190
S3 5179

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5342     Trgt 2
H5 5329     Trgt 1
H4 5315     Long breakout
H3 5299     Go Short
H2 5294
H1 5289
L1 5278
L2 5273
L3 5268     Long
L4 5252     Short Breakout
L5 5238     Trgt 1
L6 5225     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 08 to Nov 11,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10492
R2 10286
R1 10061
Avg 9855
S1 9630
S2 9424
S3 9199

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10275     Trgt 2
H5 10174     Trgt 1
H4 10073     Long breakout
H3  9954     Go Short
H2  9915
H1  9875
L1  9796
L2  9756
L3  9717    Long
L4  9598    Short Breakout
L5  9497    Trgt 1
L6  9396    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(04-11-2011)

Following line was told in Uncertain Europe &  Next Trend Decider is 5203-5297

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5254-5311 and next trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5203-5297 tomorrow or in the coming sessions

Blasting global cues today morning and Nifty traded between 5257-5326 after gap up opening today. As doubts therefore condition of sustaining above 5300 was clearly told in Post-open Outlook today.

Selling at higher levels and Buying at lower levels as well as closing between mentioned resistance range(5377-5297) will be seen today. Next Indian and Global trend will be decided according to settlement of Greece problem. Technical positions and detailed analysis has already been posted in following topic:-

Uncertain Europe &  Next Trend Decider is 5203-5297

Indian markets are prepared for any side decisive move and waiting for clear direction from Europe.

Although resistances at higher levels but expected that Indian markets will finally move above 5365 and strong rally will be seen in the next weeks.

Post-open Outlook(04-11-2011)

Most of the Asian markets are trading with good gains after strong closing in US markets therefore sentiment is blasting and Nifty is trading above 5300 after gap up opening today. Most of the Global markets and Indian markets are trading near 200-Day EMA after previous week correction and clearity from Europe will mean strong rally all around above  200-Day EMA and long term trend turning up.

Last resistance of ongoing rally is between 5318-5365 and Nifty is trading at lower levels of this resistance. Strong Global cues led trading above 5300 but clear signals are required from Greece for crossing 5365. Today intraday consolidation and sustaining above 5300 will be strong indication of rally above 5365.

Just watch sustaining above 5300 today and sustaining above it will be confirmation of previous resistance(5377-5297) clearance as well as strong indication of next up moves beginning to cross 5365.

Uncertain Europe & Next Trend Decider is 5203-5297

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(03-Nov-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intra day charts

1- Support between 5203-5224
2- Mixed Patterns between 5236-5272
3- Whole day trading between 5203-5280

Conclusions from Intra day Charts

As soon as Indian markets started to out perform global markets then it was told within first 15 minutes and when Indian markets were near the lower levels and started to consolidate then also it was updated within first 2 hours today today.

Indian markets got intraday support at lower levels within 5203-5224 and after that strong up move was seen on the back of jumping Dow's Futures(more than 200 points recovery) and rising European markets.

Dow's Futures was more than 170 points down today morning and Dow traded 195 points up today. It is clear that highly volatile global markets and most uncertain newsflow from Europe as well as such confusions are continued for the  last 3 months. Once clear picture from European markets will mean continuation of strong rally in Indian markets as it was seen through 54 sessions break out on 28-10-2011.

Nifty-EOD Chart(03-Nov-2011):-

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Conclusions

Rally started in previous month and after 16 days up moves correction is on for the last 4 sessions. First signal of correction completion emerged after support at lower level between 5203-5224 today but correction completion confirmation is must through:-

1- Firstly crossing of today mixed patterns trading range(5236-5272)
2- Secondly sustaining above minimum next first resistance(5377-5297).

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5254-5311 and next trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5203-5297 tomorrow or in the coming sessions and:-

1- Below 5203 will mean failure of today support and entering of uncertain 54 previous sessions range bound market.
2- Sustaining above 5297 will be confirmation of ongoing correction completion and in that situation fresh phase of rally will be expected after crossing of last resistance of ongoing rally(5318-5365).

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 03-Nov-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 03-Nov-2011 1884.03 1868.58 15.45

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 03-Nov-2011 973.06 971.15 1.91

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(03-Nov-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Good recovery from lower levels and almost flat closing near day's highest levels.
2- White Candle.
3- Global cues led strong rally after support at lower levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.90
Nifty P/E Ratio(03-Nov-2011): 19.06

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1332
BSE DECLINES : 1475
NSE ADVANCES :  665
NSE DECLINES :  736

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Nov)- +69400(+2.75%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Nov)- +426600(+9.26%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Nov)- +132600(+2.99%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Nov)- -253400(-7.97%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,265.75(+7.30 Points & +0.14%)
Sensex- closed at 17,481.93(+17.08 Points & +0.10% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,249.15(+28.15 Points & +0.39%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,931.98 (-0.25 Points & 0.00%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-11-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5400
R2 5350
R1 5304
Avg 5254
S1 5208
S2 5158
S3 5112

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5355     Trgt 2
H5 5332    Trgt 1
H4 5310     Long breakout
H3 5284     Go Short
H2 5275
H1 5266
L1 5249
L2 5240
L3 5231    Long
L4 5205     Short Breakout
L5 5183     Trgt 1
L6 5161    Trgt 2

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-11-2011

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 5419
R2 5376
R1 5328
Avg 5285
S1 5237
S2 5194
S3 5146

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5371     Trgt 2
H5 5350     Trgt 1
H4 5330     Long breakout
H3 5305     Go Short
H2 5296
H1 5288
L1 5271
L2 5263
L3 5254     Long
L4 5229     Short Breakout
L5 5209     Trgt 1
L6 5188     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-11-2011

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 10126
R2 10032
R1 9928
Avg 9834
S1 9730
S2 9636
S3 9532

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10023     Trgt 2
H5  9978     Trgt 1
H4  9932    Long breakout
H3  9878    Go Short
H2  9860
H1  9842
L1  9805
L2  9787
L3  9769    Long
L4  9715    Short Breakout
L5  9669    Trgt 1
L6  9624    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(03-11-2011)

Initial consolidation indications and after that intra day support between 5203-5224. As Dow's Futures surged more than 90 points from intra day lower levels therefore all the European and Indian markets also moved up sharply after  01:30pm. Positive closing above 5254 will be seen but today last 2 hours up moves are US Futures backed therefore sustaining above 5452 and minimum crossing of next resistance is must for confirmation of correction completion and it will be watched first of all tomorrow.

Mid-session Outlook-2(03-11-2011)

Following 3 technical positions have been posted in both previous outlooks:-

1- Indian markets are out performing global markets and 
2- minor indications of consolidations
3- sustaining beyond 5229-5254 for next moves confirmations.

Nifty slipped below 5229 after increased inflation data and traded more than 2 hours between 5203-5224 but could not sustain below 5229,moved up and again trading between 5229-5254.

Minor indications of consolidations were seen and it was updated also in Mid-session Outlook today. Indian markets ignored increased inflation data,out performing global markets but last half hour fast up moves are on the back of sharp 90 points surge in US futures therefore rally confirmations through sustaining above 5254 is must. 

Just watch sustaining beyond 5229-5254 for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(03-11-2011)

Nifty traded most time between 5229-5254 today and importance these levels are as follows:-

1- 5229 is previous 54 range highest and sustaining below it will mean moving into range bound market within 4720-5229 and then more down moves will be expected.
2- 5254 is today pivot point and sustaining above it will mean possibility of on going correction completion.

Selling at higher levels in last 4 sessions and markets are down also but minor indications of consolidations today therefore Just watch sustaining beyond 5229-5254 for above mentioned next moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(03-11-2011)

Indian markets are in Red but out performing global markets today morning therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5254 will be watched for next moves confirmations.