Pre-open Outlook(05-10-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD ChartS,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topic with 2 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

Technical Analysis and Research For 05-10-2011 

Market moves on technicals,news and sentiments in intraday and short term.Huge volatility and high voltage contradictory news flows nowadays. Steep fall seen in Indian markets after S.B.I. downgrading news and European markets big fall but 4720 saved and expected that Nifty will sustain above it today and in the coming sessions.

Mixed Global cues today morning and expected that Nifty will first trade near about 4780. Finally some up moves are expected after consolidation within first trading range of 4760-4800 and next moves first indication will sustaining beyond this range.

Technical Analysis and Research For 05-10-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(04-Oct-2011):-

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Nifty-EOD Chart(04-Oct-2011):-

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Conclusions

11 months old correction continuation and Nifty is trading in range bound mode for the last 40 sessions within 4720-5229,its importance is continuously being updated for the last one month. Nifty tested its lower level and formed low at 4728 yesterday. Indian markets are discounting all the positive and negative developments within this range and break down as well as sustaining below 4720 will be confirmation of overruling by negative views and developments.

Nifty is trading and sustaining above 4720 for the last 2 years,sustaining below 4720 will mean breaking down of 2 years Unbrella and it may result like cloud burst therefore 4720 is survival is crucial for next long term trend formation.

It is the character of range bound markets that markets becomes extremely depressed at that lower levels and over enthusiastic at higher levels and markets reverse form that point also therefore first of all sustaining beyond 4720 will be watched today and in the coming sessions. As Global markets are melting and sentiment is completely depressed therefore retesting of 4720 or minor slipping without force below 4720 may be seen but forceful breaking down,huge gap down or sustaining below 4720 is must for its breaking down confirmation.

Long term trend and future of Indian markets is at stake and sustaining beyond 4720 will decide long term future of Indian markets. Although Final conclusions will be drawn according to intraday charts formations and will be updated during trading hours but expected that Nifty will not sustain below 4720 at this moment and 40 sessions range bound market will remain continued despite whatsoever depressing Global sentiments.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 04-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 04-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 04-Oct-2011 2062.41 3033.85 -971.44

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 04-Oct-2011 1578.45 1022.64 555.81

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(04-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Black Candle.
2- Deep Red closing.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except CG.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.22
Nifty P/E Ratio(04-Oct-2011): 17.23

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 992
BSE DECLINES : 1771
NSE ADVANCES : 430
NSE DECLINES : 995

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(Oct)- +611300(+138.66%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Oct)- +602350(+8.63%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Oct)- +1025400(+57.36%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Oct)- +429450(+6.63%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Oct)- +935950(+36.36%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Oct)- -268200(-7.83%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,772.25(-77.35 Points & -1.60%)
Sensex- closed at 15,864.86(-286.59 Points & -1.77% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,876.80(-84.40 Points & -1.21%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,704.93(-74.23 Points & -1.09%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4992
R2 4930
R1 4851
Avg 4789
S1 4710
S2 4648
S3 4569

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4914     Trgt 2
H5 4881     Trgt 1
H4 4849     Long breakout
H3 4810     Go Short
H2 4797
H1 4784
L1 4759
L2 4746
L3 4733     Long
L4 4694     Short Breakout
L5 4662     Trgt 1
L6 4629     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5023
R2 4953
R1 4864
Avg 4794
S1 4705
S2 4635
S3 4546

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4935     Trgt 2
H5 4899     Trgt 1
H4 4862     Long breakout
H3 4818     Go Short
H2 4804
H1 4789
L1 4760
L2 4745
L3 4731     Long
L4 4687     Short Breakout
L5 4650     Trgt 1
L6 4614     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9646
R2 9458
R1 9175
Avg 8987
S1 8704
S2 8516
S3 8233

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9369     Trgt 2
H5 9260     Trgt 1
H4 9152     Long breakout
H3 9022     Go Short
H2 8979
H1 8936
L1 8849
L2 8806
L3 8763     Long
L4 8633     Short Breakout
L5 8525     Trgt 1
L6 8416     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(04-10-2011)

All trends are down and modt depressed global markets are melting therefore Indian markers tumbled after US Futures and European markets sharp declines. 40 Sessions lows almost tested and today lowest is at 4728 and sustaining beyond this level will write the story of next big moves in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-4(04-10-2011)

Dow's Futures is more than 120 points down and all the Eoropean markets are more than 2.70% to 3.25% down therefore crashing like sentiment and last 40 sessions lowest of 4720 has been almost tested.

As all of a sudden Global sentiment turned most depressed in last one hour and crashing like Global cues led down moves today therefore sustaining beyond 4720 will be watched first because that will decide fate of 40 days range bound moves and Long term Indian markets trend also.

Mid-session Outlook-3(04-10-2011)

Dow's Futures was 100 points down and huge gap down European markets opening therefore down moves triggered in Indian markets today and Nifty slipped toward today new lows.All the Eoropean markets are more than 2% down therefore crashing like sentiment formations and nifty slipped below 4825 also. Next support is near 4760 therefore its testing is possible now.

Mid-session Outlook-2(04-10-2011)

Good recovery seen from lower levels and Indian markets are out performing Global markets also today but confirmation is must through sustaining above 4850 therefore following lines of today Mid-session Outlook should be kept in mind:-

"Although Indian markets are showing strength today but sustaining above 4850 will be watched first and sustaining above will be confirmation of base formation between 4825-4850 and then sharp Pull back rally will be seen"

Proofs of 100% Accurate Analysis

When Dow's Futures was 60 points down,Hang Sang was more than 260 points down and all the Asian markets were falling then following line was told within first 15 first minutes of Indian markets opening:-

strong signal of strength in Indian markets today

We never posted for weakness in all the previous 4 outlooks even after crashing global cues and also told for strength in Indian markets. Strong recovery as well as positive zone trading is being seen in Indian markets at this moment.

Mid-session Outlook(04-10-2011)

When all the Asian markets and Dow's Futures was slipping then importance of  4825-4850 and Indian markets strength was told in following lines in Post-open Outlook today:-

As Nifty consolidated between 4825-4850 yesterday therefore trading between this range despite most depressing Global markets and it is a strong signal of strength in Indian markets today

Nifty traded most of the time between or above mentioned range(4825-4850). As consolidation between this range therefore follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will be crucial in today like most depressing sentiments.

Although Indian markets are showing strength today but sustaining above 4850 will be watched first and sustaining above will be confirmation of base formation between 4825-4850 and then sharp Pull back rally will be seen.

Post-open Outlook(04-10-2011)

Dow's Futures was about 20 points down since morning but slipped in last 15 minutes and is now more than 60 points down,Asian markets also following this move and Hang Sang now more than 260 points down from 120 points previous down.

As Nifty consolidated between 4825-4850 yesterday therefore trading between this range despite most depressing Global markets and it is a strong signal of strength in Indian markets today. Sustining beyond this range will be next moves confirmation therefore will be watched first today.

Pre-open Outlook(04-10-2011)

US markets closed more than 2.38% down yesterday and in reaction all the Asian markets  also .25% to 4.45% down therefore weak opening will be seen in Indian markets. As Sentiment is weak today morning therefore Nifty will trade near lower levels of yesterday trading range(4824-4874). Consolidation seen 4825-4850 yesterday and fresh selling is required for moving below yesterday trading range.

Sustaining below 4825 will mean high possibility of 4720 testing. Sustining above 4850 will be confirmation of base formation between  4825-4850 and then Pull Back rally will be considered. Sustaining beyond 4825-4850 will be next moves first indication therefore this move will be watched first after weak opening today. 

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 03-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 03-Oct-2011 1633.82 2459.71 -825.89

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 03-Oct-2011 1112.85 817.51 295.34

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 04-10-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(03-Oct-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Good consolidation between 4825-4850
2- Whole day trading between 4824-4874

Conclusions

Whole day intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore up move hopes from tomorrow are high. Only caveat is crashing Global markets otherwise up moves are expected tomorrow after good intraday consolidation and base formation today.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(03-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Deep Red closing
2- All the Indices closed in Red.
3- Hammer like Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.26
Nifty P/E Ratio(03-Oct-2011): 17.51

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 879
BSE DECLINES : 1915
NSE ADVANCES : 334
NSE DECLINES : 1096

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(Oct)- +338500(+23.28%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Oct)- +1154300(+21.44%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Oct)- +809350(+44.14%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Oct)- -139800(-3.80%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,849.50(-93.75 Points & -1.90%)
Sensex- closed at 16,151.45(-302.31 Points & -1.84% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,961.20(-132.80 Points & -1.87%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,779.16(-101.92 Points & -1.48%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3    4933
R2    4906
R1    4877
Avg    4850
S1    4821
S2    4794
S3    4765

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4905     Trgt 2
H5 4892     Trgt 1
H4 4879     Long breakout
H3 4864     Go Short
H2 4859
H1 4854
L1 4843
L2 4838
L3 4833     Long
L4 4818     Short Breakout
L5 4805     Trgt 1
L6 4792     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 4952
R2 4915
R1 4886
Avg 4849
S1 4820
S2 4783
S3 4754

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4923     Trgt 2
H5 4908     Trgt 1
H4 4893     Long breakout
H3 4875     Go Short
H2 4869
H1 4863
L1 4850
L2 4844
L3 4838     Long
L4 4820     Short Breakout
L5 4805     Trgt 1
L6 4790     Trgt 2