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Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5104
R2 5067
R1 5038
Avg 5001
S1 4972
S2 4935
S3 4906

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5076     Trgt 2
H5 5061     Trgt 1
H4 5046     Long breakout
H3 5028     Go Short
H2 5022
H1 5016
L1 5003
L2 4997
L3 4991     Long
L4 4973     Short Breakout
L5 4958     Trgt 1
L6 4943     Trgt 2
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Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9877
R2 9753
R1 9674
Avg 9550
S1 9471
S2 9347
S3 9268

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9802     Trgt 2
H5 9755     Trgt 1
H4 9707     Long breakout
H3 9651     Go Short
H2 9633
H1 9614
L1 9577
L2 9558
L3 9540     Long
L4 9484     Short Breakout
L5 9436     Trgt 1
L6 9389     Trgt 2

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Pre-Closing Outlook(05-09-2011)


levels selling and lower levels buying therefore range bound market was expected and following line was told today in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011)

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 4960-5026 after gap down opening today

Nifty traded most of the time within mentioned range with first 4 hours good consolidation between 4966-4994. As this range was already good support therefore 30-08-2011 support range(4929-4995) has become stronger today. 

Although matket slipped from intraday higher levels today but strong support at lower levels also today therefore follow up more consolidation and then continuation of on going Pull Back Rally expected tomorrow.
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Mid-session Outlook-2(05-09-2011)


Global markets trading positions are as follows:-

1- Asian markets closed or trading:- 1.86% to 4.39% down.
2- European markets trading:- 1.36% to 2.31% down.
3- Dow'Futures is more than 100 points down today.

Indian markets are less than 1% down and out performing global markets today. Indian markets out performed Global markets last Friday also and closed in Green while all the most Global markets closed in Red last Friday.

Nifty traded and consolidated first 4 hours between 4966-4994. This range is today intraday support and strong indication of on going Pull Back rally continuation.
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Mid-session Outlook(05-09-2011)

Higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore range bound market was expected and following line was told today in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011)

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 4960-5026 after gap down opening today

Nifty traded first two hours between 4973-4999 today. Market is preparing for next moves within mentioned range(4960-5026) and today follow up buying/selling will decide its break out direction.

Let market prepare and confirmation come then next trend conclusions will be drawn. Break out ranges for trend confirmations have already been given in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011).
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Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(05-09-2011)

Crashing Global markets therefore very easy to say for down moves today but down moves and Pull Back rally termination risk were told 4 times only and only in this Blog last Friday:-

1- Mid-session Outlook(02-09-2011):-"down moves possibilities have increased"

2- Mid-session Outlook-2(02-09-2011):-"As selling also seen at higher levels therefore today trading range(5007-5065) break out will be next moves confirmation"

3- Mid-session Outlook-3(02-09-2011):-"Sustaing below 5007 will be signal of on going Pull Back rally termination risk"

4- Pre-Closing Outlook(02-09-2011):-"As good selling at higher levels today therefore on going Pull Back rally survival is at risk"

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Aug 30 & Sep 02,2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Last 2 sessions trading range is 4929-5064. Supports and resistances within this range are as follows;-

1- Strong supoport between 4929-4995
2- Supoport between 4995-5026
3- Resistances between 5037-5064

Red closing after gap down opening and whole day negative zone trading is very much possible today but Indian markets nicely consolidated between 4929-4995 on 30-08-2011 also therefore this range is strong support and must be firstly watched also today for the reply of following question:-

On going Pull Back rally is surviving or not?

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 4960-5026 after gap down opening today and:-

1- Crossing 5026 will up moves first strong indication.
2- Slipping below 4960 will be down moves first strong indication.

Let market preapare for next moves then conclusions will be drawn firstly from intraday charts formations and then break out of following ranges:-

1- First Indication- 4960-5026
2- Confirmation- 4929-5064
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Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 05-09-2011


Nifty-Intra Day Chart(02-Sep-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5037-5064
2- Buying between 5007-5026
3- Buying between 4995-5022
3- Whole day trading between 4995-5064

Conclusions

Nifty traded whole day between 4995-5064 with lower level buying but good selling at higher level also therefore down moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week. As Indan markets out performed Global markets and lower levels buying also therefore firstly follow up selling and then sustaining below 4995 is must for fresh down moves confirmation.

US markets closed more than 2.2% down yesterday and sustaining below 4995 will mean risk of on going Pull Back rally termination. As strong support between 4929-4995 also therefore this range must be watched for the reply of following question:-

On going Pull Back rally is surviving or not?
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FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 02-Sep-2011


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FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 02-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII02-Sep-20114704.393546.011158.38


DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII02-Sep-2011906.051252.33-346.28
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(02-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Green closing.
2- Black Candle.
3- Most Indices closed in Green while some others closed in Red also.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.15
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-Sep-2011): 18.19

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1657
BSE DECLINES : 1186
NSE ADVANCES :  876
NSE DECLINES :  550

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +114450(+2.21%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +950000(+20.79%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +170400(+4.27%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +243000(+16.66%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,040.00(+39.00 Points & +0.78%)
Sensex- closed at 16,821.46(+144.71 & +0.87% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,335.85(+41.10 Points & +0.56%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,133.74(+2.26 Points & +0.03%)

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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5224
R2 516
R1 5104
Avg 5048
S1 4984
S2 4928
S3 4864

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5161     Trgt 2
H5 5133     Trgt 1
H4 5106     Long breakout
H3 5073     Go Short
H2 5062
H1 5051
L1 5029
L2 5018
L3 5007     Long
L4 4974     Short Breakout
L5 4946     Trgt 1
L6 4918     Trgt 2
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Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5158
R2 5115
R1 5074
Avg 5031
S1 4990
S2 4947
S3 4906

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5118     Trgt 2
H5 5099     Trgt 1
H4 5080     Long breakout
H3 5057     Go Short
H2 5049
H1 5041
L1 5026
L2 5018
L3 5010     Long
L4 4987    Short Breakout
L5 4968     Trgt 1
L6 4949     Trgt 2
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Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9858
R2 9757
R1 9658
Avg 9557
S1 9458
S2 9357
S3 9258

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9762     Trgt 2
H5 9716     Trgt 1
H4 9670     Long breakout
H3 9615     Go Short
H2 9596
H1 9578
L1 9541
L2 9523
L3 9505     Long
L4 9450     Short Breakout
L5 9403     Trgt 1
L6 9357     Trgt 2
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Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Sep 05 to Sep 09,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5588
R2 5350
R1 5195
Avg 4957
S1 4802
S2 4564
S3 4409

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5459     Trgt 2
H5 5357     Trgt 1
H4 5256     Long breakout
H3 5148     Go Short
H2 5112
H1 5076
L1 5003
L2 4967
L3 4931    Long
L4 4823    Short Breakout
L5 4722     Trgt 1
L6 4620     Trgt 2
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Pre-Closing Outlook(02-09-2011)

Volatile market between 4995-5064 with clear selling between 5037-5064. Some buying also being felt between 4995-5026.

Today trading range break out will decide that on going Pull Back rally will survive or not. As good selling at higher levels today therefore  on going Pull Back rally survival is at risk also..

Just Watch break out of 4995-5064 for next moves confirmation.
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Mid-session Outlook-3(02-09-2011)


As soon as selling developed in intraday charts we updated in both previous outlooks and also clearly told in Mid-session Outlook(02-09-2011) that

"down moves possibilities have increased also" 

Down moves developed and Nifty slipped below today lowest and formed new intra day low at 5004.15. Sustaing below 5007 will be signal of on going Pull Back rally termination risk therefore should be watched first.
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Mid-session Outlook-2(02-09-2011)

Indian markets are best performing in all the global markets today and trading positive while most of the the other markets are in deep Red today. As selling also seen at higher levels therefore today trading range(5007-5065) break out will be next moves confirmation and should be watched first for next moves confirmations
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Mid-session Outlook(02-09-2011)

Nifty is trading between 5007-5065 since opening today and intra day technical position are as follows:-

1- Buying between 5007-5026
2- Selling between 5037-5064

Expected that Nifty will trade few hours between today range 5007-5065. As good selling at higher levels therefore today trading range should be watched and down moves possibilities have increased also.
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Post-open Outlook(02-09-2011)


Indian markets completely ignored weaker Global cues and opened gap up but could not sustained at higher levels and slipped sharply within first two minutes.

Although weak global markets and new F&O rules from today but market require complete distribution patterns for any down move because good consolidation between 4929-4995 on 30-08-2011.

Nifty is trading between 5007-5026 for the last 45 minutes,sustaining beyond this range will be next moves first indication and should be watched first today.
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Pre-Open Market Outlook(02-09-2011)

Pull back rally is on and Nifty nicely consolidated between 4929-4995 on 30-08-2011 but sentiment is dampened today morning because all the Asian markets are in Red after US markets more than 1% down closing yesterday.

Indian markets may open weak and also firstly trade in negative zone but good consolidation on 30-08-2011 therefore market require complete distribution patterns for beginning of any down move.

Expected that Indian markets will consolidate and on going Pull Back Rally will remain continued but US Futures is also trading more than 65 points down at this moment therefore first couple of hours intraday patterns will be watched for next moves confirmation and susutaining beyond 4995 will be next moves confirmation as well.

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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 02-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5124
R2 5070
R1 5035
Avg 4981
S1 4946
S2 4892
S3 4857

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5091     Trgt 2
H5 5070     Trgt 1
H4 5049     Long breakout
H3 5025     Go Short
H2 5017
H1 5009
L1 4992
L2 4984
L3 4976     Long
L4 4952     Short Breakout
L5 4931     Trgt 1
L6 4910     Trgt 2
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