Market Outlook(07-07-2011)

Nifty rallied 510 points in 7 sessions and crossed 39sessions range after 4 days consolidation below 5329. Very short term indicators moved in overbought tettoty therefore very short term correction became due and that is being seen for the last 5 sessions in range bound moves. It is the nature of bull markets that they tend to correct in range bound modes and it is being seen. As correction is on therefore next supports and Fibonacci retracement levels have already been updated in Market Outlook yesterday and last 5 sessions correction showing intraday chart is as follows:-

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 5 days Intra Day Chart(Jun 30 to Jul 06,2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Positions in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1-Selling between 5648-5672
2-Intraday support between 5605-5625 in last 5 sessions

Conclusions

Some selling at high levels but supports above 5600 also seen in last 5 sessions within 5606-5672 therefore expected that 5600 will be finally saved and fresh rally above 5672 will commence from coming sessions.

Asian markets are mixed today morning and trading with minor gains/loss therefore sentiment is quiet and expected that Indian markets will open little positive,test resistances of last 5 sessions range and finally close positive today.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 07-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(06-07-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- 3 hours narrow range trading between 5611-5634
2- Minor selling between 5622-5634
3- Intraday support between 5611-5620
4- Intraday patterns are showing consolidations patterns in 45 points range bound market.

Conclusions

Mixed intraday positions but patterns of whole day intraday chart is showing consolidation formations therefore expected that 5600 will be finally saved and rally will be seen in the coming sessions.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(07-07-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Doji Candle
2- Most Indices closed with minor gains or loss.
3- Whole day range bound trading above 5600.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(07-07-2011): 20.74

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1448
BSE DECLINES : 1420
NSE ADVANCES :  707
NSE DECLINES :  703

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- +8100(+0.30%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +411200(+7.40%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +299400(+6.18%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +493650(+11.33%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +610750(+11.79%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +192450(+12.17%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,625.45(-6.65 Points & -0.12%)
Sensex- closed at 18,726.97(-17.59 Points & -0.09% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,080.95(+12.05 Points & +0.15%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,357.65(+19.23 Points & +0.23%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 06-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 06-Jul-2011 2076.04 1855.59 220.45

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 06-Jul-2011 991.95 1072.18 -80.23

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5695
R2 5675
R1 5650
Avg 5630
S1 5605
S2 5585
S3 5560

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5670     Trgt 2
H5 5659    Trgt 1
H4 5649     Long breakout
H3 5637    Go Short
H2 5633
H1 5629
L1 5620
L2 5616
L3 5612    Long
L4 5600     Short Breakout
L5 5590    Trgt 1
L6 5579     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5713
R2 5690
R1 5663
Avg 5640
S1 5613
S2 5590
S3 5563

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5686     Trgt 2
H5 5674     Trgt 1
H4 5663     Long breakout
H3 5649     Go Short
H2 5645
H1 5640
L1 5631
L2 5626
L3 5622     Long
L4 5608     Short Breakout
L5 5597    Trgt 1
L6 5585     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11576
R2 11510
R1 11413
Avg 11347
S1 11250
S2 11184
S3 11087

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11480     Trgt 2
H5 11443     Trgt 1
H4 11406     Long breakout
H3 11361     Go Short
H2 11346
H1 11331
L1 11302
L2 11287
L3 11272     Long
L4 11227     Short Breakout
L5 11190     Trgt 1
L6 11153     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(06-07-2011)

Same views which have alredy been told in following topic at 02:25 PM today:-

Mid-session Outlook-2(06-07-2011)

Closing will be with minor loss but intraday support at lower levels also today and intraday patterns are also showing consolidations therefore Support at 5600 became stronger today. Rally possibility is still alive despite Red closing near 5600 today.

Mid-session Outlook-2(06-07-2011)

Nifty is trading between 5611-5634 for the last 3 hours with minor selling patterns between 5622-5634 and lower levels intraday support also between 5611-5620. Intraday indicators are showing divergence in last 3 hours therefore up moves possibility is also alive despite Red zone today.

Next move first indication will be last 3 hours range(5611-5634) break out.

Mid-session Outlook(06-07-2011)

Intraday up and down moves without any specific pattern formation within 5614-5655 and hovering around yesterday closing as well as flat at this moment therefore it will be better to wait for any clear indication with same views which have already been explained today in Market Outlook(06-07-2011).

As we never guess therefore quiet at this moment.

Strong Bullish Rally above 5672

Market Outlook(06-07-2011)

Nifty rallied 510 points in 7 sessions and crossed 39sessions range after 4 days consolidation below 5329. Very short term indicators moved in overbought tettoty therefore very short term correction became due and that is being seen for the last 4 sessions in range bound moves. It is the nature of bull markets that they tend to correct in range bound modes and it is being seen.

Next supports are as follows:-

1- 5600-5628
2- 5575-5596
3- 5496-5550

Correction is on and Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:-

13.0%-5639
23.6%-5585
27.0%-5568
38.2%-5511
50.0%-5451
61.8%-5390

Resistances are as follows:-

1- 5775
2- 5850
3- 5944

Last 4 sessions range bound market between 5606-5672 and technical positions of these 4 days intraday charts have been explained in following topics:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 06-07-2011
2- Trend confirmation Crucial Range 5600-5672

Conclusions

Weekly indicators are positive,below overbought zone and suggesting more upmoves in intermediate term but very short term indicators in daily charts are overbought therefore telling for minimum minor correction to cool down,that is continued in range bound moves for the last 3 sessions. It is an strong indication of strong rally after completion of on going correction.

Very short term correction is on between 5606-5672 after 510 points forceful rally and next bullish phase will again be seen after its completion. Sustaining beyond mentioned range will be confirmation of next moves,strong support(5575-5596) below therefore slipping below 5575 not expected in on going correction. Strong rally possibility within 2 weeks is very much high after completion of ongoing short term correction and market will take its own time in consolidation process within 5600-5672. As intraday consolidation seen at lower levels in last 4 sessions therefore expected that finally Nifty will cross and sustain above 5672 and strong rally will be seen. 

Next strong moves confirmation range is sustaining beyond 5600-5672.

Global cues are quiet therefore big moves will not be seen immediately after opening today. Expected trading range of today is 5614-5672 and closing also expected between this range after most of the time trading within it.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 06-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(05-07-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- 30 Points narrow range market.
2- Intraday support and consolidation between 5614-5628

Conclusions

Intraday patterns are showing consolidations at lower levels therefore rally expectations are alive.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 05-Jul-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-Jul-2011 2666.56 1841.04 825.52

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-Jul-2011 984.37 1882.86 -898.49

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5703
R2 5681
R1 5656
Avg 5634
S1 5609
S2 5587
S3 5562

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5679     Trgt 2
H5 5668     Trgt 1
H4 5657     Long breakout
H3 5644     Go Short
H2 5640
H1 5636
L1 5627
L2 5623
L3 5619     Long
L4 5606     Short Breakout
L5 5595     Trgt 1
L6 5584     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5713
R2 5691
R1 5671
Avg 5649
S1 5629
S2 5607
S3 5587

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5693     Trgt 2
H5 5683     Trgt 1
H4 5674     Long breakout
H3 5662     Go Short
H2 5658
H1 5654
L1 5647
L2 5643
L3 5639     Long
L4 5627    Short Breakout
L5 5618     Trgt 1
L6 5608    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11668
R2 11574
R1 11513
Avg 11419
S1 11358
S2 11264
S3 11205

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11608     Trgt 2
H5 11573     Trgt 1
H4 11537     Long breakout
H3 11494     Go Short
H2 11480
H1 11466
L1 11437
L2 11423
L3 11409     Long
L4 11366     Short Breakout
L5 11331     Trgt 1
L6 11295    Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(05-07-2011)

Only range bound trading is being projected since last Friday and it is being seen also. Whatsoever happened today and yesterday,all that was told in following lines on 01-07-2011

Pre-closing Outlook(01-07-2011)- Expected that Nifty will trade and consolidate between 5600-5700 on next Monday/Tuesday and after that next rally will resume.

Indian markets recovered from lower levels today but positive indications were projected in following words when Nifty was trading near today lows:-

Mid-session Outlook(05-07-2011)- Although Indian markets are in Red since opening today but intraday patterns are not suggesting selling.

Indian markets traded most of the time in Red today but intraday patterns are showing good consolidations at lower levels therefore rally expectations are alive despite being Red closing today.

Mid-session Outlook(05-07-2011)

Most Asian markets are weak today therefore Nifty slipped and trading for the last 2 hours below yesterday trading low(5634). Although Indian markets are in Red since opening today but intraday patterns are not suggesting selling.

Trend confirmation Crucial Range 5600-5672

Market Outlook(05-07-2011)

EOD Chart analysis have already been explained yesterday in following topic therefore not being repeated today:-

Market Outlook(04-07-2011)

Nifty crossed 5600 after forceful rally and sustained above for the last 3 sessions. Nifty traded between 5606-5672 in last 3 sessions this range break out will give confirmation to:-

1- Break out of last 39 sessions range(5329-5604) 

2- Long term trend turning up.

3- Completion of that 'ABC'correction which started on 05-11-2010 from 6339.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 days Intra Day Chart(Jun 30 to Jul 04,2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty traded between 5606-5672 in last 3 sessions and technical positions within these 3 days are as follows:-

1- Selling between 5655-5672
2- Buying between 5600-5625
3- Mixed patterns between 5634-5660( Explained in Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 05-07-2011)

Conclusions

Nifty traded More than 5 hours within 26 Nifty points narrow range and trading range was between 5634-5660 on 04-07-2011 but intraday patterns were mixed therefore Nifty will firstly trade within or little beyond this range today and sustaining beyond this range will be next moves first strong indication.

Consolidation between 5600-5672 and after that finally up moves above 5672 expected in the coming sessions but intraday trading patterns between 5600-5672 will be first watched also today because follow up buying/selling today will give confirmation to next decisive trend. As Long term up trend is in question therefore Nifty sustaining above 5672 will mean worst is over for Indian stock markets and then sharp rally will be seen.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 05-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(04-07-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Minor Selling between- 5663-5672
2- Selling between- 5652-5660
3- Buying between-  5634-5642
4- More than 5 hours 26 Nifty points narrow range trading between 5634-5660

Conclusions

Nifty traded more than 5 hours between 5634-5660 with mixed intraday trading patterns. Sustaining beyond this range will be next moves first strong indication. Supports below this range and resistances above this range in 2 previous sessions therefore Nifty will finally trade between 5600-5672 and sustaining beyond this range(5600-5672) will be confirmation of next trend.