Post-open Outlook(05-05-2011)

Asian markets are flat therefore Sentiment is quiet. Today expected first range is 5496-5550 and Nifty will trade first within this range. This range break out will decide Bear market confirmation or revival of Bull market hopes. Breaking down 5496 will mean that Nifty 5485 will not survive and Bearish phase will commence. Sustaining above 5550 will mean survival of Bull market but confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

Flat opening today but not weak. As lower levels support within 5510-5530 yesterday until Nifty is above it til then Bull market revival hopes are alive. First 15 minutes trading has not shown weakness signals.

Post-closing Report(04-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Most indics closed in Red
2- Reb Candle
3- Mixed intraday trading patterns

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.81
Nifty P/E Ratio(04-05-2011): 20.58

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1073
BSE DECLINES : 1751
NSE ADVANCES :  446
NSE DECLINES :  961

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- +1556900(+111.81%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)- +644250(+14.29%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +1337900(+36.70%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- -194550(-3.42%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,537.15(-28.10 Points & -0.50%)
Sensex- closed at 18,460.62(-74.07 Points & -0.40% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,907.50(-47.55 Points & -0.60%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,390.30(-45.67 Points & -0.54%)

Tomorrow(05-05-2011) Outlook

Technical analysis and Research and next possibilities have already been posted in following topic with 2 ChartS therefore not repeated:-

Technical Analysis and Research For 05-05-2011

55 Day EMA and 200 Day EMA has been broken down and with this all the trends are down now. Only it has to be decided tomorrow and in the coming sessions that Indian markets are moving into bearish phase or not. As short term indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally possibility will also be condidered. Opening will depend on Global cues but final confirmations will be received from sustaining beyond 5485-5550.

Below 5485 will be Bearish phase confirmation. Sustaining above 5550 will mean survival of Bull market but confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

Technical Analysis and Research For 05-05-2011

Technical Analysis of EOD Chart(04-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Next 3 supports

1- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529
2- Gap support between 5485-5496
3- Support at Rising Trendline(5485)

Conclusions

All trends are down and only hope for Bull Market survival is Continuation Pattern Pennant Formation(Bullish). Its Rising Trendline has not been intersected downward yet. Next Gap support is between 5485-5496 and has not been tested in recent fall.

Nifty sustaining below 5485 will be Pennant breaking down and failure of next support(5485-5496) confirmation. Sustaining beyond 5485 will be watched now and it is last hope of Bull market survival.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(04-05-2011)

Add caption

Main Features

1- Panic Top
2- Intraday Resistance 5532-5546
3- Intraday support 5510-5530

Conclusions

Nifty opened gap up,consolidated between 5496-5529 on 24-03-2011 and after that rally upto 5944 was seen. Nifty again traded between this range today. Selling seen between 5532-5546 today and intraday support also seen between 5510-5530 today.

Conclusions (After Putting EOD and Intraday charts analysis together)

5496-5529 is strong suppport range and Nifty traded most of the time between 5510- 5550 today therefore next trading range for tomorrow is 5496-5550 and break out of this range will give almost confirmation to next phase of Indian markets.

Breaking down 5496 will mean that Nifty 5485 will not survive and Bearish phase will commence. Sustaining above 5550 will mean survival of Bull market but confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 04-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 04-May-2011 2137.74 3129.88 -992.15

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 04-May-2011 1775.52 861.42 914.1

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5650
R2 5614
R1 5575
Avg 5539
S1 5500
S2 5464
S3 5425

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5612     Trgt 2
H5 5595     Trgt 1
H4 5578     Long breakout
H3 5557     Go Short
H2 5550
H1 5543
L1 5530
L2 5523
L3 5516     Long
L4 5495     Short Breakout
L5 5478     Trgt 1
L6 5461     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5665
R2 5628
R1 5583
Avg 5546
S1 5501
S2 5464
S3 5419

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5620     Trgt 2
H5 5601     Trgt 1
H4 5583    Long breakout
H3 5560     Go Short
H2 5553
H1 5545
L1 5530
L2 5522
L3 5515     Long
L4 5492     Short Breakout
L5 5474     Trgt 1
L6 5455     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11253
R2 11149
R1 11039
Avg 10935
S1 10825
S2 10721
S3 10611

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11144     Trgt 2
H5 11095     Trgt 1
H4 11046     Long breakout
H3 10987     Go Short
H2 10968
H1 10948
L1 10909
L2 10889
L3 10870    Long
L4 10811     Short Breakout
L5 10762     Trgt 1
L6 10713     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(04-05-2011)

As soon as intraday charts suggested consolidation then following lines were told near the lows of the day in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

1- intraday support indication also between 5515-5525 today
2- As consolidation signals started to emerge today therefore survival hopes of most important support of 5485 is still alive.
3- First of all today range 5505-5550 break out will be watched

Nifty recovered 60 points fast in one hour but retraced more fast and lost all the gains within 15 minutes and again trading between 5505-5550,this range will decide correction completion or continuation therefore mentioned rally should be watched and get confirmations from sustaining beyond given range.

Mid-session Outlook-2(04-05-2011)

Nifty opened gap up,consolidated between 5496-5529 on 24-03-2011 and after that rally upto 5944 was seen. Nifty is again trading between this range today. Selling seen between 5532-5546 today and intraday support indication also between 5515-5525 today.

Narrow range market between 5505-5550 today. As lower levels support also today therefore this range break out may be toward any side and also give next decisive moves to Indian markets.

As consolidation signals started to emerge today therefore survival hopes of most important support of 5485 is still alive. Importance of 5485 will be posted after market today.

First of all today range 5505-5550 break out will be watched and according to that correction completion or continuation will get confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(04-05-2011)

Follow up selling between 5532-5546 and Nifty is down. 5485 is last hope for bull market after Nifty slipping below 200 Day EMA. As selling today also therefore slipping below 5500 is possible and sustaining above/below 5485 will be confirmation of Big Moves.

Post-open Outlook(04-05-2011)

All trends are down and deep Red Asian markets fuelled falling Indian markets today. Supports within 5496-5529,Nifty slipped fast and recovered from 5503. Intraday voltality and such recovery is very much possible in oversold market. If Nifty holds above 5529 today then minor pull back rally will be expected.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011-COVERING

NIFTY MAY F & O(BOUGHT ON 03-05-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5545(WE SHALL BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011- ASIAN MARKETS DEEP DOWN AND INDIAN MARKET WILL BE VOLATILE THEREFORE HOLD AND COVER AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE

Pre-Open Market Outlook(04-05-2011)

US futures is more than 50 points down today and resultant all the Asian markets are in deep Red today morning. Negative zone trading firstly expected after weak opening today and next supports are as follows;-

1- Gap support between 5529-5561
2- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529

Expected that Nifty will get support within above mentioned supports. Voltality, minor pull back rally and flat to positive closing will be seen today.

Post-closing Report(03-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading and Nifty-Micro Analysis of today Intra Day Chart has been explained in following topic:-

Technical Analysis and Research For 04-05-2011

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.73
Nifty P/E Ratio(03-05-2011):20.68

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES :  659
BSE DECLINES : 2181
NSE ADVANCES :  194
NSE DECLINES : 1228

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- +1060150(+319.18%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)- +857300(+22.58%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +2910900(+385.63%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +1161050(+24.28%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,565.25(-136.05 Points & -2.39%)
Sensex- closed at 18,534.69(-463.33 Points & -2.44% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,955.05(-165.05 Points & -2.03%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,435.97(-179.22 Points & -2.08%)

Tomorrow(04-05-2011) Outlook

Short term indicators are oversold and Falling Wedge(Bullish Pattern) between 5640-5555 today therefore Nifty will get support at following support level and minor pull back rally expected tomorrow:-

1- Gap support between 5529-5561
2- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529
        
Positive closing expected after initial negative zone trading tomorrow.

Technical Analysis and Research For 04-05-2011

Technical Analysis of EOD Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features next supports after today trading are as follows

Next 4 supports

1- Gap support between 5529-5561
2- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529
3- Gap support between 5485-5496
4- Support at Rising Trendline

Crucial developments of today

1- 55 Day EMA and 200 Day EMA broken down forcefully
2- Long Black Candle
3- Continuation Pattern Pennant Formation(Bullish) is existing after today big fall

Nifty-Micro Analysis of today Intra Day Chart for 04-05-2011

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Intraday Selling between 5675-5705
2- Falling Wedge(Bullish Pattern) between 5640-5555

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5821.33
R2 5765.67
R1 5665.33
PIVOT 5609.67
S1 5509.33
S2 5453.67
S3 5353.33

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5721     Trgt 2
H5 5686     Trgt 1
H4 5650     Long breakout
H3 5607     Go Short
H2 5593
H1 5579
L1 5550
L2 5536
L3 5522     Long
L4 5479     Short Breakout
L5 5443     Trgt 1
L6 5408     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-05-2011

 Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5842.00
R2 5784.00
R1 5676.00
PIVOT 5618.00
S1 5510.00
S2 5452.00
S3 5344.00

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5734     Trgt 2
H5 5696     Trgt 1
H4 5659     Long breakout
H3 5613    Go Short
H2 5598
H1 5583
L1 5552
L2 5537
L3 5522    Long
L4 5476     Short Breakout
L5 5439     Trgt 1
L6 5401    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11757.33
R2 11568.67
R1 11243.33
PIVOT 11054.67
S1 10729.33
S2 10540.67
S3 10215.33

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11434     Trgt 2
H5 11317     Trgt 1
H4 11200     Long breakout
H3 11059     Go Short
H2 11012
H1 10965
L1 10870
L2 10823
L3 10776     Long
L4 10635     Short Breakout
L5 10518    Trgt 1
L6 10401    Trgt 2

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5544-TGT-5644-CMP-5567

NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5544-TGT-5644-S.P.FOR CALL-5500,5600(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5567

Mid-session Outlook-2(03-05-2011)

Last 21 days range and 55 Days EMA(5704) forcefully broken down today and Nifty is hovering around 200 Days EMA(5633) and sustaining below it today will mean Long term trend turning down. As today intraday charts suggested  intra day selling indications therefore we sold our long positions at 5597(proofs are available in blog-Just Click).

Sustaining beyond 5633 will be Long term trend confirmations and slipping below it will mean Bearish market possibility. Next support is 5561 below 5633.