RBI Credit Policy triggered intermediate term down trend after huge intraday voltality today. Last 21 days range and 55 Days EMA broken down today. More down moves and 200 Days EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook(03-05-2011)
RBI Credit Policy triggered intermediate term down trend after huge intraday voltality today. Last 21 days range and 55 Days EMA broken down today. More down moves and 200 Days EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.
Post-open Outlook(03-05-2011)
Global cues are weak and Nifty is trading below 5700 since opening today. Indian markets are technically poised for pull back rally but voltality is possible due to weaker global cues and RBI credit policy uncertainity. Decisive moves are expected after credit policy announcements and sustainability beyond 5700 will be confirmation.
NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-COVERING
NIFTY MAY F & O(BOUGHT ON 02-05-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5697(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)
NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-MESSAGE
NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011- MARKET WILL BE VOLATILE,HOLD AND WE MAY WAIT UPTO RBI CREDIT POLICY & COVERING MESSAGE WILL BE POSTED POSITIVELY
Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-05-2011)
Indian markets are technically poised for a pull back rally between 5700-5800 but global markets are slipping today therefore sustaining beyond 5700 will be watched after weak opening today and according to that next market view will be formed. Sustaining beyond 5700 implications have already been discussed in Post-closing Report(02-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook yesterday.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of 5 Days Intra Day Chart
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Main features are as follows
1- Water-Fall(Bullish) pattern in last 4 sessions
2- Last 4 sessions down moves are in falling Channel
Channel break out will give first indication of next strong move. As Water-Fall(Bullish) pattern formations in last 4 sessions therefore rally expected after upside break out.
Post-closing Report(02-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook
Main features of today trading are as follows
1- Black Candle
2- Most Indices closed in Red except IT,Reality,CG,Power and Health Care
3- Consolidation seen in last 3 hours at crucial support(5700)
4- Consolidation seen in 2/3 of 30 SENSEX Stocks
Ratios:
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.87
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-05-2011): 21.19
Advances & Declines:
BSE ADVANCES : 1002
BSE DECLINES : 1861
NSE ADVANCES : 421
NSE DECLINES : 988
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +152900(+25.40%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +417850(+8.82%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(28APR2011)- +523150(+35.90%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28APR2011)- +48150(+1.05%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +557350(+15.83%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- +142150(+4.44%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 5,701.30(-48.20 Points & -0.84%)
Sensex- closed at 18,998.02(-137.94 Points & -0.72% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,120.10(-80.85 Points & -99%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,615.19(-100.12 Points & -1.15%)
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(02-05-2011):
Tomorrow(03-05-2011) Outlook
Last 10 days Intra Day Charts Micro Analysis is showing water-Fall(bullish) pattern and Micro Analysis of today Nifty Intra Day Chart is also suggesting last 3 hours intraday buying patterns between 5690-5710. 21 sessions trading range is 5688-5944 and consolidation signals emerged at lower levels of the range.
Technical positions are as follows:
1- 55 Day EMA is at 5704 today and sustaining it beyond will give intermediate term trend confirmation.
2- Nifty is at lower band of Bollinger Band and up moves within last 21 sessions range can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.
3- very short term indicators(Stochastic and William %R) are oversold and very short term up moves can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.
Survival of Intermediate term trend is at stake,tomorrow is its deciding day and that will be decided according to sustaining beyond 5700. Follow up buying tomorrow will mean sharp surge because water-Fall(bullish) pattern in last week and follow up selling will mean sustaining below 5693 and deep correction confirmations.
As lower levels consolidations today therefore up moves expected after follow up buying development and sustaining above 5700.
1- Black Candle
2- Most Indices closed in Red except IT,Reality,CG,Power and Health Care
3- Consolidation seen in last 3 hours at crucial support(5700)
4- Consolidation seen in 2/3 of 30 SENSEX Stocks
Ratios:
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.87
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-05-2011): 21.19
Advances & Declines:
BSE ADVANCES : 1002
BSE DECLINES : 1861
NSE ADVANCES : 421
NSE DECLINES : 988
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +152900(+25.40%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +417850(+8.82%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(28APR2011)- +523150(+35.90%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28APR2011)- +48150(+1.05%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +557350(+15.83%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- +142150(+4.44%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 5,701.30(-48.20 Points & -0.84%)
Sensex- closed at 18,998.02(-137.94 Points & -0.72% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,120.10(-80.85 Points & -99%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,615.19(-100.12 Points & -1.15%)
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(02-05-2011):
 |
Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Last 10 days Intra Day Charts Micro Analysis is showing water-Fall(bullish) pattern and Micro Analysis of today Nifty Intra Day Chart is also suggesting last 3 hours intraday buying patterns between 5690-5710. 21 sessions trading range is 5688-5944 and consolidation signals emerged at lower levels of the range.
Technical positions are as follows:
1- 55 Day EMA is at 5704 today and sustaining it beyond will give intermediate term trend confirmation.
2- Nifty is at lower band of Bollinger Band and up moves within last 21 sessions range can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.
3- very short term indicators(Stochastic and William %R) are oversold and very short term up moves can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.
Survival of Intermediate term trend is at stake,tomorrow is its deciding day and that will be decided according to sustaining beyond 5700. Follow up buying tomorrow will mean sharp surge because water-Fall(bullish) pattern in last week and follow up selling will mean sustaining below 5693 and deep correction confirmations.
As lower levels consolidations today therefore up moves expected after follow up buying development and sustaining above 5700.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(02-05-2011):
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Conclusions are as follows
1- Last 3 hours consolidation between 5690-5710
2- Distribution between 5725-6740
As base formation and support between 5725-5740 and some selling at higher levels also today therefore firstly trading between 5690-5750 will be seen. Base formation at lower level today therefore firstly very short term up moves expected tomorrow. Let follow up buying/selling develop tomorrow then final conclusions will be drawn from 5690-5750 break out.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 02-May-2011
| ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011
R3 5843
R2 5809
R1 5755
Avg 5721
S1 5667
S2 5633
S3 5579
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5789 Trgt 2
H5 5769 Trgt 1
H4 5749 Long breakout
H3 5725 Go Short
H2 5717
H1 5709
L1 5692
L2 5684
L3 5676 Long
L4 5652 Short Breakout
L5 5632 Trgt 1
L6 5612 Trgt 2
Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011
R3 5862
R2 5826
R1 5775
Avg 5739
S1 5688
S2 5652
S3 5601
Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5812 Trgt 2
H5 5792 Trgt 1
H4 5772 Long breakout
H3 5748 Go Short
H2 5740
H1 5732
L1 5717
L2 5709
L3 5701 Long
L4 5677 Short Breakout
L5 5657 Trgt 1
L6 5637 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011
R3 11864
R2 11726
R1 11505
Avg 11367
S1 11146
S2 11008
S3 10787
Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11644 Trgt 2
H5 11563 Trgt 1
H4 11481 Long breakout
H3 11382 Go Short
H2 11349
H1 11316
L1 11251
L2 11218
L3 11185 Long
L4 11086 Short Breakout
L5 11004 Trgt 1
L6 10923 Trgt 2
NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5684-TGT-5784-CMP-5719
NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5684-TGT-5784-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5719
NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5684-TGT-5784-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5719
Pre-closing Outlook(02-05-2011)
Nifty moves 2 times below 5693 today and if sustains below then that will be Intermediate term trend turning down and deeper correction confirmation. As last 2 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation indications therefore this confirmation is must.
Mid-session Outlook-2(02-05-2011)
Market slipped after higher levels selling today and trading near 5700. Nifty sustaining below 5693 will mean crucial support breaking down and Intermediate term trend turning down as well and that will be deeper correction corfirmation.
Watch 5693 breaking down and then be bearish.
Watch 5693 breaking down and then be bearish.
Post-open Outlook(02-05-2011)
Positive opening but lost all the gains within first 5 minutes and trading in Red despite Dow's futures is trading more than 100 points up and Asian markets are positive. Nifty is trading at the higher levels of support range(5695-5730). Consolidation for any up move is must and distribution today will lead toward below 5695.
Follow up buying or selling will be decided after next 2/3 hours trading. Next moves confirmation levels have already beeen explained in Weekly Outlook(02-05-2011 to 06-05-2011)
Indian markets have shown weakness and firstly watch break out of 5730-5780 for next moves confirmations
Weekly Outlook(02-05-2011 to 06-05-2011)
Indian markets technical positions are as follows
1- Long term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
2- Intermediate term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 5693.
3- Short term trend is down and will be up after sustaining below 5856.
4- Tripple top formations with intraday charts distribution patterns within 5880-5912 therefore it is strong resistance and market require complete consolidation to cross it.
5- Next support range is 5695-5730 and it is weak support.
6- Nifty got intraday support between 5707-5725 on 30-04-2011.
7- Last 20 sessions trading range is 5695-5944 with tripple top and double bottom formations.
Resistance and Supports
1- Resistance at Falling Trend Line(5944)
2- Support at 5693
3- Support at 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
4- Support at 5561(Gap)
5- Support at Rising Trend Line(5561)
Supports & Resistance Chart:-
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Higher levels selling is clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intra Day Chart therefore down moves were seen but in Water Fall (Bullish) Pattern also in last 3 days. Next support range is 5695-5730 and breaking down of 5695 will mean Intermediate term trend turning down, that will be confirmation of more downward moves with 3 weeks to 3 months down markets.
Weekly MACD Upward intersection and Pennant Formation are telling down moves maximum upto rising trend line and then up moves. Correction is on but Long term trend is up and expectd that Nifty will condolidate after getting support at above mentioned levels and rally will remain continued.
Present market is range bound range between 5695-5944 and follow up moves in the begining of week will decide deeper correction or range bound market but it is conform that market require complete consolidation and that will take its own time in consolidation process.
As good selling at higher levels therefore market was down but intraday support also seen last Friday therefore firstly range bound market between 5730-5780 in the begining of week,then follow up buying or selling within this range and after that follwing ranges break out will decide next moves:-
1- 5730-5780- First strong indication of next moves but multiple resistances above 5780 and market require complete consolidation at each step for a rally.
2 5695-5912- Deeper correction below 5693 and rally confirmation above 5912
Follow up moves between 5730-5780 and according to break out next moves will be will be seen in the week.
1- Long term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
2- Intermediate term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 5693.
3- Short term trend is down and will be up after sustaining below 5856.
4- Tripple top formations with intraday charts distribution patterns within 5880-5912 therefore it is strong resistance and market require complete consolidation to cross it.
5- Next support range is 5695-5730 and it is weak support.
6- Nifty got intraday support between 5707-5725 on 30-04-2011.
7- Last 20 sessions trading range is 5695-5944 with tripple top and double bottom formations.
Resistance and Supports
1- Resistance at Falling Trend Line(5944)
2- Support at 5693
3- Support at 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
4- Support at 5561(Gap)
5- Support at Rising Trend Line(5561)
Supports & Resistance Chart:-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Higher levels selling is clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intra Day Chart therefore down moves were seen but in Water Fall (Bullish) Pattern also in last 3 days. Next support range is 5695-5730 and breaking down of 5695 will mean Intermediate term trend turning down, that will be confirmation of more downward moves with 3 weeks to 3 months down markets.
Weekly MACD Upward intersection and Pennant Formation are telling down moves maximum upto rising trend line and then up moves. Correction is on but Long term trend is up and expectd that Nifty will condolidate after getting support at above mentioned levels and rally will remain continued.
Present market is range bound range between 5695-5944 and follow up moves in the begining of week will decide deeper correction or range bound market but it is conform that market require complete consolidation and that will take its own time in consolidation process.
As good selling at higher levels therefore market was down but intraday support also seen last Friday therefore firstly range bound market between 5730-5780 in the begining of week,then follow up buying or selling within this range and after that follwing ranges break out will decide next moves:-
1- 5730-5780- First strong indication of next moves but multiple resistances above 5780 and market require complete consolidation at each step for a rally.
2 5695-5912- Deeper correction below 5693 and rally confirmation above 5912
Follow up moves between 5730-5780 and according to break out next moves will be will be seen in the week.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intra Day Chart(15-04 to 30-04-2011)
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Main Features are as follows
1- Strong resistance between 5860-5912
2- Weak support between 5695-5730
3- Water Fall (Bullish) Pattern in last 3 days down moves.
Fistly trading between mentioned resistance and Support ranges. As good selling at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required to cross mentioned resistances and follow up selling in the first 2 sessions of next week will mean deeper correction with Intermediate term trend turning down and testing possibility of Rising Support Line of Pennant pattern as well as 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632).
Present market is range bound range between 5695-5944 and follow up moves in the begining of week will decide deeper correction or range bound market but it is conform that market require complete consolidation and that will take its own time in consolidation process.
Weekly Bullish Patterns and Short Term Correction
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Weekly MACD
Most important development 4 week before that MACD line upward intersection of Average line and it is confirmation of rally. Weekly MACD cross over gives confirmation to long trend therefore strong confirmation to up trend 4 weeks before. Both lines started to move up near equilibrium line and MACD line has moved it above therefore it is strong indication of rally.
Short term correction is confirm but Long term trend is up and rally hope is still alive after correction completion due to above mentioned MACD upward cross over.
Continuation pattern Pennant Formation
Long term trend is up and and Weekly chart is showing Pennant pattern formation in its corrective move which is continuation pattern. It means continuation of on going trend because it is not a trend reversal pattern but trend continuation pattern. As on going trend is Bullish therefore its continuation expected after Pennant falling trend line upward intersection.
Short term correction is confirm but Long term trend is up and rally hope is still alive after correction completion and expected that on going corrective movements will be between both lines of Pennant pattern(Falling Trend Line and Rising Support Line).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)