Pre-closing outlook(21-02-2011)

Mentioned range(5433-5468) broken out by force after good base formation between 5415-5445. Now next crucial level is 5558 and expected that Nifty will move above it as well as will give strong up moves confirmations.

Mid-session outlook(21-02-2011)

Market did not showed enthuciasm on resolving of JPC issue and Presidential address and trading with small losses. Market is quiet within 5433-5468 since opening today and forceful break out of this range will give first indication of those moves which will laid the foundation of post Budget moves.

Market has to prepare for any side moves and let this process complete. Just wait for sustaining beyond of mentioned range(5433-5468) for next and possibly post budget moves confirmations.

Rally confirmation First Point- 5558

Weekly Analysis- 21-02-2011 to 25-02-2011

Following conclusive lines was told in Weekly Analysis- 14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011 and that proved 100% true:-

"Pull Back rally/Relief rally/Bounce back is very much due and that will be seen in the coming week"

Following events will be closely watched by Indian markets and its results will decide Indian stock markets next immediate moves:-

21 Feb - Budget Session of Parliament begins
21/22 feb- Govt decision on JPC
24 Feb - Feb derivative expiry
25 Feb - Railway Budget-2011-2012
28 Feb - General Budget-2011-2012

Wave-5 started on 11-02-2011 from 5177 and its first 6 sessions moves are as follows:-

1- Firstly 422 points rally completed in first 6 sessions.
2- As very short term indicators were overbought therefore
3- 38,2% correction(almost) of last 5 sessions rally seen in last 6 session(last Friday).

Initial 5 sessions rally has been corrected upto 38,2% level last Friday and confirmation required that correction has been completed or not. Next immediete retracement levels are as follows and it has to be decided that correction has been completed at 5442 last Friday or may correct upto following levels:-

38.2%- 5437
50.0%- 5388
61.8%- 5338

2 following bullish formations developed in last 5 sessions:-

1- Falling Channel break out
2- Inverse Head and Shoulders Formation and Neck Line is at 5558

1-Falling Channel Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

2-Inverse Head and Shoulders Formation:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

If Nifty does not dip below upper line of Falling Channel and cross Neck Line(5558) of Inverse Head and Shoulders then that will be strong rally expectation point and first confirmation level will be sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5617). Next resistances are as follows:-

1- 5640-5780(Strong resistance)
2- 5800-5860(Strong rally above 5860)
3- 6150-6180
4- 6240-6320

Market will face strong resistance between 5640-5860 and crossing 5860 will mean worst is over and fast strong rally eruption.

Conclusions

Short term trend is up,long term trend is down. Intermediate term trend is sideways and struggling for direction. Decisive confirmation of intermediate term trend will show clear trend to Indian markets because intermediate term trend will be up at 5556 and Inverse Head and Shoulders Neck Line is at 5558. Nifty sustaining above 5558 will mean strong up move because:-

1- Intermediate trend will be up
2- Trend reversal  Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern will get confirmation from its neck line break out.

Bottoming out confirmation point of last Friday started correction is required first and sustaining beyond last 4 sessions most time trading range(5460-5500) will give next immediate moves confirmations.

3-First trend deciding Range Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view) 

As per my view Nifty will trade first within last Friday range and will consolidate as well as prepare for post Budget up moves. Sustaining above following levels will be watched one by one for next up moves confirmations:-

1- 5500
2- 5556/5558
3- 200-Day EMA(today at 5617)
4- 5780
5- 5860

5558 should be watched for first strong upmove confirmation point. As per my view Nifty will sustain above 5558 after some more consolidations in next couple of sessions and then rally will be seen.

Coming 6 sessions are full of events and will be highly volatile also therefore intraday charts formations and their micro analysis will only be able to give first confirmation of Post Budget Indian stock markets. Cautious trading positions must be taken after minute analysis this week intraday charts.

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 21-02-2011

H6 5606     Trgt 2
H5 5571     Trgt 1
H4 5537     Long breakout
H3 5495     Go Short
H2 5481
H1 5467
L1 5438
L2 5424
L3 5410     Long
L4 5368     Short Breakout
L5 5334     Trgt 1
L6 5299     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 21-02-2011

H6 11326     Trgt 2
H5 11236     Trgt 1
H4 11145     Long breakout
H3 11036     Go Short
H2 10999
H1 10963
L1 10890
L2 10854
L3 10817     Long
L4 10708     Short Breakout
L5 10617     Trgt 1
L6 10527     Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 21-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 21-02-2011

R3 5715
R2 5657
R1 5557
AVG 5499
S1 5399
S2 5341
S3 5241

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 21-02-2011

R3 5702
R2 5645
R1 5549
AVG 5492
S1 5396
S2 5339
S3 5243

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 21-02-2011

R3 11575
R2 11427
R1 11177
AVG 11029
S1 10779
S2 10631
S3 10381

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (21 Feb to 25 Feb 2011)

R3 5850
R2 5724
R1 5591
AVG 5465
S1 5332
S2 5206
S3 5073

Post-closing report(18-02-2011)

Positive closing was expected after positive opening today but Market was nervous after the news of CBI raid on DMK chief M.Karunanidhi family members and market reacted with steep fall today. Indian markets closed in Red today.

-Sensex closed at 14665.92 and 295.30 points down today.
-Nifty closed at 4429.90 and 87.50 points down today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-02-2011)

It was told 5 times in last 3 sessions that Nifty will cross 5520,it happed and Nifty closed 5546 yesterday.

Short term and intermediate term trends are up and long term trend is down. Long term trend will be up after sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5616). 5640-5850 is strong resistance range. Market require complete consolidation and  will take its own full time to cross 5850. It is confirm that crossing 5850 will mean removal of most bearish technical positions and Indian markets will zoom up above 5850.

Coming couple of sessions will decide that Indian markets are preparing for Union Budget 2011 below or within mentioned resistance range(5640-5850) and it will also be tried to project post Budget Indian markets moves before its tabelling in Parliament on the basis of  intraday charts formations next week. This fact can be verified from my orkut.com profle that I told on 25-02-2010 before Bubget 2010:-

"WHATSOEVER MAY THE BUDGET 2010 BUT RALLY WILL BE SEEN AFTER BUDGET-2010 AND NIFTY WILL TEST 5150 IN MARCH 2010"

All very well know that my above post budget-2010 projection was prooved 100% accurate.

Small intraday corrections will be seen before any up move but Indian markets require sufficient selling patterns for any down moves and whenever it will happen then will be told well in advanve before any down moves begining on the basis on intraday charts patterns.

200-Day EMA(today at 5616) tesing is possible within coming of sessions and Positive closing expected after positive opening today.

Trading Strategy for Nifty(Jan Fut)-18-02-2011

H6  5637    Trgt 2
H5  5616    Trgt 1
H4  5595    Long breakout
H3  5570    Go Short
H2  5562
H1  5554

L1  5537
L2  5529
L3  5521    Go Long
L4  5496    Short Breakout
L5  5475    Trgt 1
L6  5454    Trgt 2

Trading Strategy for Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-18-02-2011

H6  11398    Trgt 2
H5  11336    Trgt 1
H4  11274    Long breakout
H3  11202    Go Short
H2  11178
H1  11154

L1  11105
L2  11081
L3  11057     Go Long
L4  10985    Short Breakout
L5  10923    Trgt 1
L6  10861    Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 18-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 18-02-2011

R3 5668
R2 5610
R1 5578
AVG 5520
S1 5488
S2 5430
S3 5398

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 18-02-2011

R3 5667
R2 5608
R1 5577
AVG 5518
S1 5487
S2 5428
S3 5397

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 18-02-2011

R3 11495
R2 11334
R1 11232
AVG 11071
S1 10969
S2 10808
S3 10706

Post-closing report(17-02-2011)

Nifty closed at 5546 today but I told for this up move above 5520 non stop daily in the last 3 sessions in following words:-

1- Pre-Open Market Outlook(17-02-2011)-" finally crossing 5520 expected in couple of sessions"

2- Mid-session outlook(17-02-2011)-"crossing 5520 is strong upmove confirmaton and it is being expected for the last 2 sessions also"

3-Post-open outlook(16-02-2011)"technically poised to cross 5520 and its happening expected within couple of sessions"

4-Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-02-2011)- "finally rally expected after clearing 5520"

5-Mid-session outlook-2(15-02-2011)- "5520 crossing expected within couple of sessions"

My outlooks posted from last Friday are live proof of this fact that I non stop told for rally from 5200 and noves above 5520.

Mid-session outlook-2(17-02-2011)

5520 crossing projected 4 times in Following lines in last 3 days:-

1-Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-02-2011)- "finally rally expected after clearing 5520"

2-Mid-session outlook-2(15-02-2011)- "5520 crossing expected within couple of sessions"

3-Post-open outlook(16-02-2011)"technically poised to cross 5520 and its happening expected within couple of sessions"

4- Pre-Open Market Outlook(17-02-2011)-" finally crossing 5520 expected in couple of sessions"

Nifty trading at 5549 at present. As strong resistance crossing confirmations therefore now intermediate term trend will be up above 5556 and Nifty will counter 200-Day EMA and strong resistance range(5640-5780) in next week.

Mid-session outlook(17-02-2011)

Following lines were told in Post-open outlook today:-

"Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels after opening but intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns. Firstly 5460 and then 5420 will be watched for consolidation confirmation"

Nifty got support at 5464 today and reversed therefore support at 5460 strengthened. ctossing 5520 is strong upmove confirmaton and it is being expected for the last 2 sessions also.

Post-open outlook(17-02-2011)

Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook today:-

"Doji candle formation with partially mixed patterns yesterday therefore more consolidation is required within 5420-5520"

As told, same happened and Nifty is trading within mentioned range since opening today. Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels after opening but intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns. Firstly 5460 and then 5420 will be watched for consolidation confirmation. Market will take its own time and finally crossing of 5520 is also expected but 5420-5520 will also be kept in mind for next move confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(17-02-2011)

Nifty traded whole day within resistance range 5460-5520 yesterday and most of the time Nifty traded and consolidated within this range in last 2 days.

Nifty last 2 days intraday chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Sentiment was heated due to positive announcement expectations in P.M. press conference and some retail buying possibility can not be ruled out yesterday. Doji candle formation with partially mixed patterns yesterday therefore more consolidation is required within 5420-5520 today. View is bullish and crossing of 5520 is also expected but little more consolidation is demand of confimation today.

Firstly trading within 5460-5520 today and finally crossing 5520 expected in couple of sessions.

Post-closing report(16-02-2011)

I made following predictions before opening which proved 100% accurate after closing today:-

1- Next resistance range- 5460-5520
2- As Indian markets have to prepare and consolidate within resistance range therefore will trade within it first before any cross over
3- View is bullish and opening to closing moves within 5420-5520 expected today

- As I told 100% same happened and


1- Nifty traded within 5460-5505 today.
2- Nifty  whole day traded and closed within mentioned range at 5481.70.
3- It was no where told that closing will be in Green or Red and Indian markets closed flat today.

-Sensex closed 27.10 points up today.
-Nifty closed 0.70 points up today.

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 17-02-2011

H6 11083     Trgt 2
H5 11057     Trgt 1
H4 11030     Long breakout
H3 10998     Go Short
H2 10987
H1 10976
L1 10955
L2 10944
L3 10933     Long
L4 10901     Short Breakout
L5 10874     Trgt 1
L6 10848     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 17-02-2011

H6 5535    Trgt 2
H5 5523    Trgt 1
H4 5512    Long breakout
H3 5498    Go Short
H2 5494
H1 5489
L1 5480
L2 5475
L3 5471    Long
L4 5457    Short Breakout
L5 5446    Trgt 1
L6 5434    Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 17-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 17-02-2011

R3 5549
R2 5527
R1 5504
AVG 5482
S1 5459
S2 5437
S3 5414

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 17-02-2011

R3 5559
R2 5533
R1 5509
AVG 5483
S1 5459
S2 5433
S3 5409

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 17-02-2011

R3 11135
R2 11071
R1 11018
AVG 10954
S1 10901
S2 10837
S3 10784