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Pre-Open Market Outlook(11-01-2011)

Indian markets are completely under performing all global markets for the last 4 months and range bound within 5690-6339. Following parameters were suggesting stopping of down moves and begining of fresh up moves yesterday:-

1- Pennant formation in both EOD and Weekly charts. As it is continuation pattern therefore on going uptrend was expected after its upward break out.
2- As no distribution Pattern seen therefore down moves were not seen.
3- As last 3 sessions were showing consolidation patterns therefore fresh upmoves were projected.
4- Rising trendlines not breached therefore up trend was safe.

Indian markets are already weak in comparasion to global markets and all the world markets showed down moves in following manner yesterday:-

1- All the Asian markets slipped from flat opening and firstly little weak trading.
2- All the European markets moved down after weak opening.
3- US futures moved more than 50 points down after whole day Red zone trading.

As all the Global markets showed down moves therefore already weak Indian markets slipped sharply and closed in deep Red yesterday. Pennant as well as short term trend lines also broken down therefore down ward trend risk has certainly increased yesterday. As intraday charts are again not showing distribution patterns but signalling consolidation yesterday therefore if consolidation develop today then following form of up moves will be considered:-

1- As Very short term indicators are oversold therefore firstly correction(Minor Pull Back rally) of 438 points down moves in last 5 sessions.
2- As long term tren is up therefore bounce back.
3- As last 3 sessions steep fall is showing consolidation pattern of Water Fall therefore V-Shaped recovery possibility is also alive.

Although steep fall seen yesterday but intraday charts not showing distribution patterns therefore I am expecting above mentioned 3 up moves possibilities one by one in the coming sessions and telling one precaution for fresh long positions is that before going long just get confimation of down moves bottoming out.

Mid-session outlook(10-01-2011)

All the asian markets trading in red and flat trading us futures is also now more than 50 points down therefore indian markets slipped again and formed new lows. Although up move expected but after weaker global cues market slipped sharply. Nifty not holding at higher levels confirming weakness and sustaining below 5820 will mean down move confirmations and more down moves as well.

Fresh Rally in Next Week After Short Term Correction Completion in Last Week

Weekly Analysis- 10-01-2011 to 14-01-2011

Most encouraging with expectation of 6500 begun week ended in most depressing mood with possibility of 5500 in most of the participants' mind.

Most reacted whole week moves in above manner but I told following lines:-

1- In weekly on 03-01-2011- "Last 2 sessions intraday charts are showing distribution signals therefore a minor/very short term correction is possible in the begining of week"

2- Pre-Open(04-01-2011)-
a-"Nifty will not sustain above 6178."
b-"yesterday intraday charts genuine selling patterns therefore slipping below 6154 will be seen"

3-Pre-Open(05-01-2011)- "As good selling at higher levels therefore slipping below 6128 possibility is high to test minimum 6080"

It is also true that I was expecting termination of correction and begining of fresh rally in the last of week but when I found that correction will remain continued therefore I told before 12 noon in Mid-session on 07-01-2011:-

"If Nifty sustains below 5988 then it will be down move confirmations therefore sustaining below 5988 will be watched for deciding next trend."

As per my view deep correction in last 2 sessions is the result of 'strongly bullish and buy on dips psychology' of general traders and to press them for panic selling as well as to covert most bullish sentiments into most bearish sentiments therefore Water fall patterns in last 2 sessions is showing consolidation:-

1- Water Fall Patterns in last 2 sessions intraday charts:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

There was no break,Nifty closed at 5996 and on the base of intraday consolidation patterns on 28-12-2010 I told following lines for that rally above 6000 which was seen immediately after my following posting in Pre-Open Outlook on 29-12-2010:-

"As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for upmoves and sustaining above 6040 will be confirmation of next rally. Expected that rally will begin today and nifty will cross as well as sustain above 6040 now"

2- Last 10 sessions intraday charts showing rally after 28-12-2010,4 sessions distribution pattern and last 2 sessions seeep fall:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Steep fall seen in last 2 sessions in which all the immediate supports and Weekly Pivot Supports(except support-3)also broken and for this I am presenting my following views:-

1- Panic bottom formation last Friday therefore it may be termination of last week down trend also.
2- As steep fall pattern is Water Fall and within it Falling Wedge pattern is also seen therefore reversal of last week down move is possible after these consolidation and reversal patterns.
3- Although I told for rally without any break on 29-12-2010 but not telling for down move after breaking down of so many levels and adding my following views:-

A- Upmove expected after above mentioned consolidation patterns.
B- Technically sustaining below is must for 3 sessions.
C- If Nifty sustainins below 6015 in next 2 sessions then fusing of rally will get confirmation otherwise Whipsaw(wrong signal) will be understood.
D- Next support is at 5865 and slipping below will be down move confirmation but I am not expecting its happening and my view is bullish due to following trading patterns.

3- Conclusions from EOD Chart:-

1 Wave 3 is on
2- Long term is up and Short term trend is down. Although Nifty moved below intermediate term levels but no confirmations yet.
3- No distribution pattern at present is last 4 months range bound moves
4- Pennant formation in last 2 months EOD chart. It is continuation of trend pattern. As on going trend is uptrend therefore Pennant is signalling continuation of uptrend.
5- All the rising trend lines are not breached therefore up trend is safe at present.

3-Bullish Formations in EOD Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions from Weekly Chart:-

1- Pennant formation in last 9 weeks chart and it is confirming continuation of uptrend in weekly chart also.
2- All the rising trend lines are not breached in weekly charts also therefore up trend is safe at present.

4- Bullish Formations in Weekly Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions

No distribution pattern in weekly and daily chart and on the other hand above mentioned uptrend formations also. If selling at higher levels then last 2 sessions consolidation patterns also in steep fall. Panic is much due to rise in inflation last Thursday but Onion will not decide Indian economy and things will be ettle down in coming weeks. No reason for down move confimations and technically sustaining below 6015 is must in next 2 days for down move confirmation as well as Nifty slipping below 5865 will also be down move confirmation. Until it will not happen till then any down move will not be considered.

Short term correction had been due in the begining of week which finished in the last of week. 120 points panic down in last 3 hours last Friday and as per my view correction completed in this fall. As per my view Firstly bounce back and after that V-shaped recovery is possible in the coming sessions and fresh rally will be seen in the coming weeks. Positive weely closing expected in this week.

Mid-Session Outlook(07-01-2011)

As yesterday intraday charts showed consolidation patterns therefore expected that this process has begun but Nifty dipped below 5988 also which is crucial support also. If Nifty sustains below 5988 then it will be down move confirmations therefore sustaining below 5988 will be watched for deciding next trend.

Trading Levels for 07-01-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 07-01-11

R3 6196
R2 6156
R1 6102
AVG 6062
S1 6008
S2 5968
S3 5914
   
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 07-01-11

R3 6210
R2 6172
R1 6122
AVG 6084
S1 6034
S2 5996
S3 5946

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 07-01-11

R3 11607
R2 11523
R1 11389
AVG 11305
S1 11171
S2 11087
S3 10953

Bullish Signals Amid Bearish News Flow

Pre-Open Market Outlook(07-01-2011)

Following lines were clearly told in the weekly on 03-01-2011:-

"minor/very short term correction is possible in the begining of week"

Indin markets are trapped between strong supports(5940-6006) and strong resistances(6065-6180). On going rally started on 10-12-2010 from 5721 and correction of 459 points rally started from 6180. Fibonacci correction levels of this rally are as follows:-

38.2%- 6042
50.0%- 6000
61.8%- 9558
70.7%- 5926
76.4%- 5905
78.6%- 5897
88.6%- 5861

Correction is on and following levels will also be kept in mind:-

1- 5988-6006- Strong support because Good consolidation between this range on 28-01-2011 and after that 27 days range broken out next day. Until Nifty does not slip below 5988 till then nothing to worry for bulls.

2- 5940- Intermediate term trend will remain up above it.

Long term and Intermediate term trends are up and short term trend is down after Last 5 sessions short term correction which is part of on going rally as well as a part of this process also.

Next resistance ranges are as follows:-

1- 6065-6180
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320

Market will prepare first between 6006-6065 for next moves and it is also possible that it may slip below 6006 in consolidation process but until Nifty does not sustain below 5988 till then any weakness will not be considered.

Indian markets slipped ysterday and closed in Red but intra day charts of Indices and many pivotal stocks are suggesting consolidation. Nifty intra day chart of yesterday is showing following 3 bullish patterns;-


1- Water Fall Pattern
2- 5 Waves completed Falling Wedge Patterns
3- 4 hours intra day consolidations between 6025-6055.

1 Day Intraday Chart of Yesterday showing above Patterns:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

As consolidation signals above 6025 yesterday therefore until Nifty is above it till then any down move will not be considered. Allthough Nifty may slip below 6025 and/or 6006 in consolidation process but sustaining below these crucial levels is must for confirmation of any down trend.

First trading range of today is 6006-6065 and Nifty will prepare within it for next moves. Expected that consolidation will remain continued today and Nifty will cross 6065 within next couple of session and Green closing will be seen today.

Mid-Session Outlook(06-01-2011)

As inflation highly increasing news was in the pipe line therefore indian markets slipped immediately after opening today. Nifty trading below 6065 and in this manner has broken down last 5 days range. If Nifty sustains below 6065 today then it will be confirmation of last 5 days higher levels selling and that will mean testing levels below 6000. Last 2 hours intraday charts suggesting selling formations below 6065 therefore further down move is possible.

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST SHORTED ON 05-01-2011-COVERING

NIFTY JAN F & O(SHORTED ON 05-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6120

Next Trend Deciding Range 6065-6082

Pre-Open Market Outlook(06-01-2011)

Nifty formed the low at 6062 yesterday but I told well in advance for its happening in following words:-

1-Pre-Open(05-01-2011)- "As good selling at higher levels therefore slipping below 6128 possibility is high to test minimum 6080"
2- Pre-Open(04-01-2011)-
a-"Nifty will not sustain above 6178."
b-"yesterday intraday charts genuine selling patterns therefore slipping below 6154 will be seen"
3- Weekly(03-01-2011)- "Last 2 sessions(31-12-2010 & 30-12-2010) intraday charts are showing distribution signals therefore a minor/very short term correction is possible in the begining of week"

1- 31-12-2010- Nifty traded most of the time within-6115-6145
2- 30-12-2010- Nifty traded most of the time within-6065-6082

1-Technical Positions of Last 5 Days Intraday Chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

As intraday selling shown in first 2 days therefore minor/very short term correction was predicted on 03-01-2011 and it was seen as well as both 2 days intraday levels neutralised on 05-01-2011 also in single day market slipping. Nifty traded most of the time within-6065-6082 and Nifty again traded last 2 hours within 6065-6082 yesterday. Good selling at higher levels and Nifty trading last 2 hours within 30-12-2010 range is indicating its importance to decide next trend. I clearly mean to say that break out and sustaining above 6082 will mean on going correction completion and moving below 6065 will mean testing of important supports near 6000.

As selling has already been seen within 6065-6082 therefore once slipping below is expected but final moves will be decided after sustaining beyond this range. Market will decide today next moves near about or within 6065-6082 and today first 3/4 hours intraday charts will give indication of next moves market preperations. Global markets may also give direction to Indian markets in next couple of sessions.
                                                                                                                                               
 As I never like to guess therefore will try to tell after today intrady charts analysis.

Nifty Spot Levels for 06-01-11

R3 6205
R2 6173
R1 6126
AVG 6094
S1 6047
S2 6015
S3 5968
  
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 06-01-11

R3 6231
R2 6191
R1 6147
AVG 6107
S1 6063
S2 6023
S3 5979

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 06-01-11

R3 11813
R2 11706
R1 11538
AVG 11431
S1 11263
S2 11156
S3 10988

NIFTY-JAN F&O-2ND SELLING TRADE OF 05-01-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(JAN FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6146-TGT-6074-CMP-6107

NIFTY(JAN PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-6100,6200-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6146-TGT-6074 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6107

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF TODAY-COVERING

NIFTY JAN F & O(SHORTED TODAY)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6097

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF TODAY-MESSAGE

NIFTY JAN F & O(SHORTED TODAY)-PLEASE DO NOT COVER AT TARGET AND WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 05-01-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(JAN FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6151-TGT-6094-CMP-6134

NIFTY(JAN PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-6100,6200-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6151-TGT-6094 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6134

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 04-01-2011-COVERING

NIFTY JAN F & O(SHORTED SHORTED ON 04-01-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6139

Pre-Open Market Outlook(05-01-2011)

As intraday charts suggested therefore following lines were told at that time for yesterday when Dow and Nasdaq was trading +125 and +40 respectively:-

1- All the global markets closed with strong gains and Us markets are also trading more than 1% up at this moment therefore positive opening expected today but Nifty will not sustain above 6178.

2-  intraday charts genuine selling patterns therefore slipping below 6154 will be seen and Red closing expected today despite most bullish global sentiments.

Nifty traded most of the time in Red area yesterday with good amount of voltality and good selling formations at higher levels which are shown in following yesterday intraday charts:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Following lines were told for last 4 sessions selling formations:-

1- On 03-01-2011 in Weekly:-"Last 2 sessions intraday charts are showing distribution signals "
2- On 04-01-2011 in Pre-Open:-
a- " intraday charts are showing genuine selling formations"
b- "Red closing expected today despite most bullish global sentiments"
3- On 04-01-2011 in Mid-Session-2:- Follow up selling seen today and more down move possibilities can not be ruled out.

Rally begun after genuine buying on 28-12-2010 and selling seen during up moves as well as last 2 days selling within 6145-6178 also. As last 2 days selling seen just below next resistance range(6180-6195) also therefore this raesistance strengthened and slipping below 6128 will mean faster down moves begining. Good consolidations requires now to cross 6180.

Nifty traded within 6128-6178 in last 2 sessions with good selling at higher levels and sustaining below 6128 will mean short term correction commencement to test lower levels within 6000-6080.

As good selling at higher levels therefore slipping below 6128 possibility is high to test minimum 6080.

Trading Levels for 05-01-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 05-01-11

R3 6233
R2 6207
R1 6176
AVG 6150
S1 6119
S2 6093
S3 6062  

Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 05-01-11

R3 6260
R2 6235
R1 6197
AVG 6172
S1 6134
S2 6109
S3 6071
 
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 05-01-11

R3 12198
R2 12074
R1 11843
AVG 11719
S1 11488
S2 11364
S3 11133