Weekly Analysis- 20-12-2010 to 24-12-2010
Long term and short term are up. Intermediate term trend(5932) is sideways for the last 20 sessions. Following points are also suggesting that Indian markets are flat and not trending:-
1- Nifty is at the middle of Bollinger Band.
2- 8,21 and 55 Day EMA are moving flat within 5910-5945.
3- Nifty trading a little below the middle point of last 75 sessions.
Last 3 sessions are range bound within 5855-5956 and its break out will give following moves:-
1- Sustaining above 5956 will mean immediate testing of next strong resistance 5970-6015. Sustaing above 6015 will mean strong rally.
2- Sustaining below 5855 will mean tesing of following ranges:-
a- 5785-5820
b- 5745-5775
3- Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385
1-Bollinger Band Chart:-
2-Symmetrical Triangle Formation Chart:-
3-Flat Averags Chart:-
4- Last 3 days Intraday Chart:-
Analysis of last 3 sessions range bound move to decide next moves
Break out implications of last 3 sessions range(5855-5956) has been discussed above and its dissection is as follows to decide break out direction:-
1- 1st day-Nifty traded within 5880-5940 with selling at higher levels.
2- 2nd day-Nifty traded within 5870-5940 with intraday consolidation patterns.
3- 3rd day-Sentiment completely depressed due to fear of DMK withdrawing support news from Union Govt. during trading hours or in next 3 days of holidays. Last 2 range broken both sides,firstly lower to 5855 and then at higher side to 5956.
4- 3rd day intraday analysis- Firstly intraday support within 5855-5890 and then last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications.
Indian markets got support at lower levels in most depressed sentiment last Thursday and closd near day's higher levels. As last 40 minutes intraday charts are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 5956 confirmation is must for that rally about which has been mentioned above.
Conclusions
Intermediate term trend is undecided in last 20 sessions, 2 times it has turned down and also turned up 2 times. Let it find decisive direction through breaking out trend deciding following crucial levels then sustains moves toward that side:-
1- Sustaining above 6015 will be up trend confirmation.
2- sustaining below 5690 will be down trend confirmation.
Last Thursday sharp up moves in most depressed sentiment is strong indication of decisive up moves and if Nifty sustains above 5956 in the begining of week then that will be correction completion confirmation. Indian markets are riped for up moves after last Thursday sharp surge and until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956 and enjoy whole weeek move towards that side.
