Wishing you all happy and prosperous Diwali

Strong Big Moves after final Break Out

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Nov 12 to Nov 16,2012)

Wishing you all very happy and prosperous Diwali

Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Nov-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

 Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 6335.90 on 08-11-2010(Long term correction begun)
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1 completion(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3 completion(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- 33 Sessions sideways correction between 5583-5815.
6- 3 Resistances above 5815

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

On going rally begun on 08-11-2010 from 4531.15 after 13 months long term correction completion. Completion of Wave-3 at 5815.35 on 05-10-2012 and its correction is on through 33 Sessions sideways moves between 5583-5815.

Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(09-Nov-2012):-

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Key averages are as follows

8 Day EMA is at- 5704
21 Day EMA is at- 5682
55 Day EMA is at- 5583
200 Day EMA is at- 5357

Indicators Analysis

1- Bollinger Band- Narrow range moves between 5608-5761 and previous week moves near upper band. 
2- Slow Stochastic- Signalling short term down moves after %K moving below %D in overbought zone.
3- ADX Indicator- ADX is at 31.93 and indication of beginning of big trend formation.
4- MACD- Both lines are kissing in positive zone and indicating indecision between bulls and bears.  
5- ROC and RSI- are hovering around equilibrium line and in positive zone therefore not showing any trend.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

MACD,ROC and RSI are at equilibrium and well prepared for any side clear break out and ADX Indicator is above 25 therefore indicating the beginning of next big trend. Slow Stochastic has given short term downward signal through downward cross over in overbought zone therefore down moves are possible.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct10  to Nov 09,2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 20 Sessions intraday charts

1- Most time trading between 5639-5720 in last 20 sessions.
2- False break down after RBI Credit policy on 30-10-2012. 
3- False break out after Obama victory on 07-11-2012. 
4- Sideways trading between 5583-5777 in last 20 sessions.
5- Sideways trading between 5583-5815 in last 33 sessions.

Conclusions from 20 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

33 Sessions sideways market and let its break out get confirmation for next trend formation. Strong break out signal will be cross over of 20 sessions range and final confirmation will be sustaining beyond 33 sessions range.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long Term Trend is up and intermediate term trend is sideways for the last 33 sessions between 5583-5815 and finally sustaining beyond this range will blast Indian markets towards its break out direction.

Momentum indicators are also very well prepared for any side clear break out through immediate cross overs but Nifty is almost in the middle of previous 33 sessions range therefore following resistances and supports should be firstly watched:-

1- Higher levels strong resistances are between 5700-5720/5733/5777/5815.
2- supports are between 5583-5615. 

Next more than 10% strong moves confirmation range is 5583-5815 and its break out should be firstly watched in the coming weeks but false break out/down seen after positive and negative news flow in previous weeks therefore beware of such false signals and get breaking out/down technical confirmation through following 2 filters after cross over of 33 sessions range:-

1- 3 Days sustaining beyond the previous trading range.
2- Minimum 3% up/down moves from the high/low of the previous trading range.

Strong and blasting final conclusive big moves beyond 5583-5815 will be as follows:-

1- Below 5583 will mean deeper Wave-4 correction possibility because Wave-3 correction started after its 5 Sub-Waves completion and  Wave-4 may correct 1045 up moves of Wave-3.  
2- Above 5815 may mean eruption of impulsive Wave-5 strong rally after Wave-4 correction completion within sideways moves but strong 3 resistance ranges above 5815 also therefore up moves may be slow.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 09-Nov-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 09-Nov-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 09-Nov-2012 1679.2 1883.44 -204.24

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 09-Nov-2012 642.76 796.78 -154.02

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(09-Nov-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Red.
2- Closing near the lower levels of the day.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(09-Nov-2012): 17.79

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,093
BSE Declines : 1,765
NSE Advances :   571
NSE Declines : 1,168

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(Nov)- -18,000(-1.13%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Nov)-  30,350(0.56%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Nov)- -16,950(-2.23%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Nov)-  896,750(15.39%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Nov)-  133,000(6.57%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Nov)-  241,300(3.38%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Nov)-  542,650(13.48%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Nov)- -1,269,600(-17.92%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Nov)-  1,391,850(21.97%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Nov)- -941,350(-25.39 %)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,683.68(-162.58 Points & 0.86-%)
Nifty- closed at 5,686.25(-52.50 Points & -0.91%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,890.15(-76.60 Points & -0.96%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,461.95(-35.60 Points & -1.02%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-11-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5806

R2 5778

R1 5732

Avg 5704

S1 5658

S2 5630

S3 5584

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5760     Trgt 2 

H5 5743     Trgt 1

H4 5726     Long breakout 

H3 5706     Go Short 

H2 5699

H1 5692

L1 5679

L2 5672

L3 5665     Long 

L4 5645     Short Breakout 

L5 5628     Trgt 1 

L6 5611     Trgt 2

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-11-2012

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 5847
R2 5814
R1 5767
Avg 5734
S1 5687
S2 5654
S3 5607

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5800     Trgt 2
H5 5782     Trgt 1
H4 5764     Long breakout
H3 5742     Go Short
H2 5734
H1 5727
L1 5712
L2 5705
L3 5698     Long
L4 5676     Short Breakout
L5 5657     Trgt 1
L6 5639     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-11-2012

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 11930

R2 11831

R1 11679

Avg 11580

S1 11428

S2 11329

S3 11177

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11778     Trgt 2 

H5 11722     Trgt 1

H4 11665     Long breakout 

H3 11596     Go Short 

H2 11573

H1 11550

L1 11503

L2 11480

L3 11457     Long 

L4 11388     Short Breakout 

L5 11331     Trgt 1 

L6 11275     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 12 to Nov 16,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5849

R2 5813

R1 5749

Avg 5713

S1 5649

S2 5613

S3 5549

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5786     Trgt 2 

H5 5763     Trgt 1

H4 5741     Long breakout 

H3 5713     Go Short 

H2 5704

H1 5695

L1 5676

L2 5667

L3 5658     Long 

L4 5631     Short Breakout 

L5 5608     Trgt 1 

L6 5585    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 12 to Nov 16,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 11980

R2 11849

R1 11662

Avg 11531

S1 11344

S2 11213

S3 11026

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 11795     Trgt 2 

H5 11722     Trgt 1

H4 11649     Long breakout 

H3 11562     Go Short 

H2 11533

H1 11504

L1 11445

L2 11416

L3 11387     Long 

L4 11300     Short Breakout 

L5 11227     Trgt 1 

L6 11154     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook(09-11-2012)

As soon as intraday selling developed today then it was updated in Post-open Outlook(09-11-2012) When Nifty was trading near the higher levels of today. As intraday selling was seen above 5733 therefore confirmation filters levels were posted in most of the previous 3 sessions outlooks.

It has been proved that the break out on 07-11-2012 was not valid and now Nifty is once again between 32 sessions sideways following 2 trading ranges:-

1- 5639-5733(most time trading range and its break out will be first indication)
2- 5583-5777/5815(final confirmation)

Market takes its own time in sideways moves and next trend will be according to final break out of above ranges. Market is slipping after higher levels 3 sessions selling and following supports should be watched now:-

1- 5650-5683(Gap support of 02-11-2012)
2- 5583-5610

Post-open Outlook(09-11-2012)

Although most time positive zone trading in first 2 hours but intraday selling formations  at higher levels today.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(09-11-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Nov-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling formations at higher levels.
2- Lower levels good support between 5716-5726.
3- Almost whole day hovering around 5733.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5716-5742.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day 26 points quiet trading between 5716-5742 with lower levels supports and higher levels intraday selling patterns. 32 Previous sessions most time trading range is 5639-5733 and Nifty traded above 5733 on 07-11-2012 but could not sustain above it and today most time hovering around 5733 without any clear intraday pattern formation.

Sustaining beyond 5733 will prove the validity of break out on 07-11-2012 and it should be firstly watched tomorrow for following next trend confirmation:-

1- Sustaining above 5733 will be strong indication of next up trend but confirmation will be after sustaining above 5777/5815.
2- Below 5733 will mean slipping into 32 previous sessions most trading range(5639-5733).

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 08-Nov-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-Nov-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 08-Nov-2012 2053.35 1792.14 261.21

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 08-Nov-2012 901.63 817.05 84.58

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(08-Nov-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed Red.
2- Quiet range bound trading whole day.
3- White Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.83
Nifty P/E Ratio(08-Nov-2012): 17.97

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,340
BSE Declines : 1,494
NSE Advances :   642
NSE Declines :   811

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Nov)- -5,850(-0.76%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Nov)- 286,800(5.15%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Nov)- -170,950(-7.79%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Nov)- -16,150(-0.23%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Nov)- 599,700(17.30%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Nov)- 257,050(3.73%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Nov)- 661,350(11.45%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Nov)- -93,900(-2.43%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Nov)- 606,200(8.39%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Nov)- -51,050(-4.25%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,846.26(-56.15 Points & -0.30%)
Nifty- closed at 5,738.75(-21.35 Points & -0.37%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,966.75(19.65 Points & 0.25%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,497.55(-1.60 Points & -0.05%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-11-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5808
R2 5776
R1 5757
Avg 5725
S1 5706
S2 5674
S3 5655

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5789     Trgt 2
H5 5777     Trgt 1
H4 5766     Long breakout
H3 5752     Go Short
H2 5747
H1 5742
L1 5733
L2 5728
L3 5723     Long
L4 5709     Short Breakout
L5 5698     Trgt 1
L6 5686     Trgt 2

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-11-2012

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 5816
R2 5796
R1 5780
Avg 5760
S1 5744
S2 5724
S3 5708

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5801     Trgt 2
H5 5792     Trgt 1
H4 5784     Long breakout
H3 5774     Go Short
H2 5771
H1 5768
L1 5761
L2 5758
L3 5755     Long
L4 5745     Short Breakout
L5 5737     Trgt 1
L6 5728     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-11-2012

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 11849

R2 11787

R1 11735

Avg 11673

S1 11621

S2 11559

S3 11507

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11798     Trgt 2 

H5 11772     Trgt 1

H4 11746     Long breakout 

H3 11715     Go Short 

H2 11704

H1 11694

L1 11673

L2 11663

L3 11652     Long 

L4 11621     Short Breakout 

L5 11595     Trgt 1 

L6 11569     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(08-11-2012)

Whole day 26 points quiet trading between 5716-5742 with lower levels supports but higher levels selling also. Sustaining beyond today trading range should be firstly watched tomorrow for next trend first indication beyond 31 sessions most trading range(5639-5733).

Mid-session Outlook(08-11-2012)

Last 4 hours trading between 5716-5742 with supports at lower levels. As could not sustain at intraday higher levels therefore today range break out will be watched for following next trend:-

1- Above 5733 will be emergence of next up trend hopes but subject to  confirmation through sustaining it above.
3- Below 5733 will mean slipping into  31 sessions most trading range(5639-5733)